Wednesday 8-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win this week’s Northern Trust Open:

10-1— Hideki Matsuyama

11-1— Jordan Spieth

12-1— Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson

14-1— Rory McIlroy

18-1— Justin Thomas

20-1— Jason Day, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Your Wednesday freebie is the Yankees on the Run Line over the Tigers.

New York and Aaron Judge have to feel like an albatross has been taken off their backs, as Judge was able - with the help of skipper Joe Girardi - to end his strikeout record of 37 games in a row last night, and his team was able to slug their way to a whopping 13 runs, as they kept pace in the A.L. East race.

Look for the Yankees to play loose-and-free again tonight as they have their ace Luis Severino mound-bound.

Sevvy was able to shake off his worst start of the season against the Red Sox his last time out with 6-plus innings of solid ball against the Mets, as he allowed just an unearned run and fanned 9 batters.

Jordan Zimmerman will counter for the Tigers, and he is 0-2 his last 3 starts with a whopping 17 runs allowed in just 15-plus innings of work.

The Tigers are on a 3-13 nosedive, and I don't see that changing tonight.

Yankees in a pound-job.

3* N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson
Aug 23 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Cubs vs Reds
Play on: Cubs -139 at 5dimes

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Wednesday 8-23-17 Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati 7:10 PM EST
Play On: Chicago Cubs -139 (Montgomery/Wojciechowski) Listed The Chicago Cubs travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds on Wednesday night. The Chicago Cubs are 67-57 SU overall this year while Cincinnati comes in with a 53-73 SU overall record on the season. Asher Wojciechowski is 2-2 with a 7.39 ERA overall this year, 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA at home this season and 2-1 with a 6.90 ERA his last 3 starts. Wojciechowski is 0-1 with a 17.17 ERA in his one career start vs the Cubs. Chicago Cubs are scoring 6.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 5.4 runs per game against division opponents this season. Cincinnati is allowing 5.6 runs per game overall this year, 5.4 runs per game at home this season, 7.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 5.8 runs per game against division opponents. Chicago Cubs are 37-15 overall vs Cincinnati the past 3 years. Cubs are 12-2 this year on the road when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Chicago Cubs are 68-26 last 3 years as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Cincinnati is 2-11 last 3 years and 2-8 this year at home when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Cincinnati is 8-24 this year against left handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago Cubs tonight!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin
Aug 23 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | TOR vs TAM
Play on: UNDER 8½ -115

DMack's Free Play for Wednesday, August 23, 2017, is on Toronto/Tampa Bay Under (Stroman/Pruitt Listed)

Neither team is hitting a lick (Toronto .244, Tampa Bay .217 L7) and both are scoring less than four runs a game over that time period. The Jays are on a current run of 8-3 to the Under while the Rays are 15-4 Under for the entire month of August. Looking at tonight's starters, Marcus Stroman (13-7, 2.99) has been good all year and has been especially sharp of late off three straight quality starts with a 1.71 ERA. Austin Pruitt's numbers are skewed from a bad outing vs. Seattle in last but the Under is 6-0 in is starts since being called up. Runs will be at a premium here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach
Aug 23 '17, 3:05 PM
MLB | A's vs Orioles
Play on: A's +170 at 5Dimes

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick Wednesday MLB Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 3:05 ET - analysis will be posted here by 11 AM ET; please check back then for the full write up on this early free pick side play; thank you and best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee
Aug 23 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Yankees vs Tigers
Play on: Yankees -1½ -115 at betonline

10* FREE MLB PICK (Yankees -1.5, -115)

New York is worth a look here on the run line Wednesday night in Detroit. The Yankees got the bats going with 13 runs on 16 hits in a 9-run win last night. They are in a prime spot to build in on that momentum with their ace Luis Severino on the mound. Severino is 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts on the season and is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 13 road starts. As for the Tigers, they are in a free fall, having lost 9 of their last 11 games. They send out Jordan Zimmermann, who has been a major disappointment with a 5.87 ERA in 24 starts. He's got a 6.00 ERA in 11 road starts and has allowed 14 runs on 18 hits in his last 2 starts. Give me the Yankees -1.5 (-115)!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11400 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 A WARRIOR DEFINED 4/1

# 2 COACH Q 3/1

# 6 WALLY'S GOT CLASS 7/2

My choice in here is A WARRIOR DEFINED. Rust has a sharp win percent with horses running in dirt route races. Has decent early lick and will most likely fare admirably against this group of horses in this race. Ran a strong last race. COACH Q - He has been running very well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most favorable in this field. Should be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last outing. WALLY'S GOT CLASS - Has been right there on the wire most every time recently. Has been running well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs

Assiniboia Downs - Race 7

.20 JACKPOT HI 5 / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR / QUINELLA


Claiming $2,500 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 10:17
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 23. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500 (MANITOBA BRED RESTRICTED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MARGARET'S SONG: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trai ler. CANADIAN ROSE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SILVER CITY DITTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOLLIE GO NEE NEE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/su rface. F P SILENT EYES: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
1
MARGARET'S SONG
3/1

5/1
2
CANADIAN ROSE
9/5

6/1
9
SILVER CITY DITTY
5/1

7/1
8
SOLLIE GO NEE NEE
12/1

10/1
6
F P SILENT EYES
30/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 47

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $10,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 MI FRANCESA BRENDA 2/1

# 3 MANGIARELA 3/1

# 5 INSPIRADA 4/1

My pick in this race is MI FRANCESA BRENDA. Looks respectable against this group and should be one of the leaders. A solid 58 avg Equibase class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this group of horses in this race. MANGIARELA - This filly looks strong for this event since Gomez has a very strong win percentage with horses going this distance. INSPIRADA - This selection will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Berrios should be able to get this filly to break out early for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating: 3

#3 CAJUN BANDIT (ML=10/1)
#9 FORT STEVENS (ML=3/1)
#10 FATHER GEORGE (ML=5/1)


CAJUN BANDIT - My expertise says this is the only presser in the race. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. FORT STEVENS - Finished second, but easily second over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. Gelding flopped as the betting favorite in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race last time out. Was a good race even though he finished second. I like this gelding. Has the uppermost earnings per start in today's contest. FATHER GEORGE - My experienced judgement tells me to be on the alert for this mount in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CANADIAN FIREBALL (ML=4/1), #8 OLD PEP N STEP (ML=6/1), #4 CONS PERCUSSION (ML=6/1),

CANADIAN FIREBALL - Garnered a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race on August 4th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. OLD PEP N STEP - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of races. Not likely that the speed figure he notched on August 9th will be enough in this race. CONS PERCUSSION - Could be tough for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable contenders list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 CAJUN BANDIT on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,9,10] with [3,9,10] with [3,5,8,9,10] with [3,5,8,9,10] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 7:05pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: 4

#1 DAISY CREEK (ML=8/1)
#10 BELLA FLOR (ML=9/5)
#4 CAROLYN'S JOY (ML=4/1)


DAISY CREEK - This filly is in good physical condition. Ran third on Aug 7th. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back. BELLA FLOR - The Aug 9th race at Presque Isle Downs was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the class ladder a significant amount, so she should be in a good place. Another way to judge class is earnings per start. This horse has the uppermost in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish line. CAROLYN'S JOY - I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a nice outing within the last month or so.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NORTHERN ALLIANCE (ML=6/1), #5 MINI'S SHOES (ML=6/1), #1A BARNIE'S LADY (ML=8/1),

NORTHERN ALLIANCE - Showed some physical problems in the last race at Presque Isle Downs. MINI'S SHOES - This was a hot horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be somewhat leery of this horse. BARNIE'S LADY - Don't think this horse will make an impact in today's race. That last rating was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 Entry on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,10] Box [1,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #8 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 4:45 PM EASTERN POST
The John's Call Stakes
13.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#5 RENOWN
#7 RED RIFLE
#3 INFINITE WISDOM
#1 ST. LOUIE

The 1 5/8 mile turf race was inaugurated in 2004 and named in honor of John's Call, who competed on the flat and over jumps, winning or placing in 30 of 40 starts and earning $1,571,267. Purchased as a yearling in 1992 by Douglas Joyce for $4,000 and trained by Tom Voss, the gelding had his best year in 2000, when he won the Sword Dancer Invitational by 9.5 lengths, becoming at age 9 the oldest runner to win a Grade 1 race at Saratoga. That year he also won the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont Park and finished third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf. In 2006, the race was run at 1 3/16 miles on the dirt. Here in the 14th running of "The Call," #5 RENOWN, a British-bred entry, and a 10-1 BOMB, is the overall speed leader in this stakes field, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in four of those "adventures," including a quartet of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #7 RED RIFLE, the morning line favorite, has turned in "POWER RUNS" in four of his last five starts, hitting the board in a pair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 6

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $31,800 • Post: 4:10P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 23 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SOUTHERN MISCHIEF is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SOUTHERN MISCHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
8
SOUTHERN MISCHIEF
3/1

2/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA
Aug 23 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Red Sox vs Indians
Play on: Red Sox +1½ -135 at BMaker

ASA FREE PLAY on Boston Red Sox Run Line (+1.5 runs) over Cleveland Indians, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET

This is a lot of line value considering the Red Sox are 15-4 their last 19 games and 3 of the 4 losses came by just a single run. That equates to Boston (at +1.5 runs) being 18-1 in their last 19 games! They'll have Drew Pomeranz on the mound and the southpaw hasn't lost in over two months! Pomeranz is 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA and has piled up 63 strikeouts in 70 and 1 / 3 innings since June 11th. The Indians Corey Kluber certainly has great numbers but he left his last start with a sprained ankle! Also, the Indians are now just 3-3 in their last 6 games and one of those wins came by just a single run. FREE PLAY: Bet the Boston Red Sox at +1.5 runs on the run line in evening action Wednesday!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Franco
Aug 23 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Mets
Play on: Diamondbacks -164 at 5Dimes

D’Backs

The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the New York Mets of late, winning all five encounters in 2017 and 10 of their last 11 overall dating back to the 2016 season. The visiting Diamondbacks look to continue their good fortune against the Mets on Wednesday when the teams play the third contest of a four-game series at Citi Field.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Zack Godley (5-6, 3.13 ERA) vs. Mets RH Chris Flexen (2-2, 6.55)

Godley dropped his second straight decision and fell to 2-5 in his last nine outings on Friday after allowing four runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings of a 10-3 loss at Minnesota. The 27-year-old surrendered two homers for the second time in three trips to the mound, but pitched considerably better in his previous encounter with the Mets. Godley permitted one run on one hit, but saw his pitch count elevate after issuing a season-high five walks in a no-decision versus New York on May 15.

Flexen sustained his first loss in nearly a month on Friday despite working at least five innings for the third straight outing. The 23-year-old has been plagued by a lack of control, as he issued four walks for the third time in five starts in Friday's 3-1 setback versus Miami. Flexen, who will be making his sixth career start overall and first against Arizona, has pitched better at home (1-1, 4.91 ERA) than on the road (1-1, 8.18).

Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Godleys last 6 starts vs. National League East. Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Diamondbacks are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.