Wednesday 8-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Marlins/Phillies Over 10

We have two young pitchers facing off with not much work under their belt. These teams usually get together for a lot of runs and I don’t see that being any different tonight. Both pitchers give up the home run ball and will walk batters. That 1-2 combo always leads to a lot of runs. Look for a high scoring game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +105

The Rays came through for me last night w/ a 6-5 win over the Jays. That series opener was a big revenge spot for the home team as not only did they lose three of four to their division rival last week, but one of those matchups (finale) featured the identical pitching matchup of Archer vs. Rowley. As expected, Archer pitched well as he allowed just three runs (two unearned) and four hits in six innings. Though, on paper, the pitching matchup does NOT appear to be in their favor tonight, I still prefer the Rays here.

As I've been writing about recently, the chase for the AL's second Wild Card spot remains very wide open. Eight teams are now separated by six games. But it is Toronto at the "back of the pack" and their ugly -82 YTD run differential seems to confirm that they are indeed the "worst of the lot." It appears as if some "sharper dollars" have come in on the Rays in the early morning, which mirrors up w/ my handicapping of the matchup. Toronto has lost four straight and tends to give up a lot of runs on the road (5.1 per game). Yes, they have Marcus Stroman starting tonight - and he did beat the Rays last week - but the Rays offense is better now w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup.

Tampa Bay's Austin Pruitt has won just one of his five starts since his formal integration into the starting rotation, which occurred after the All-Star Break. But - save for his last start, he's generally pitched well. This will be Toronto's 1st time seeing him. Note Pruitt had been a pretty significant dog on the ML in each of his first five starts, which included matchups against the likes of Sale, Kluber and Keuchel! No wonder he has a losing team start record. But here he's facing probably his weakest opponent to date. As I mentioned yday, the Rays have the edge in the bullpen as well. He was shaky last night, but closer Alex Colome leads all of MLB w/ 37 saves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Toronto -109

The Blue Jays are fading out of the AL wild card race with four straight losses to start their road trip, as they continue this three-game series at Tropicana Field with the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday. The Rays won 6-3 last night in the series opener and coupled with a 3-0 shutout of Seattle on Sunday, have put together back-to-back wins for the first time since opening August with three consecutive victories. Tampa Bay is 62-65 on the season and is currently four games back in the race for the American League’s second wild card spot, while Toronto is two games back of the Rays, as well as six back of the No. 2 wild card spot. The problem looming for both clubs is the sheer volume of teams in the wild card chase. The Rays are one of five teams vying for that spot, followed by Baltimore (a half-game back of the Rays) and Toronto. That makes seven teams, all within six games of that final wild card spot.

Marcus Stroman (11-6, 2.99 ERA) comes in off three straight quality starts and six in his last eight games overall (Jays are 5-3 in that stretch). He'll be opposed by Tampa Bay rookie Austin Pruitt (6-4, 5.37 ERA). Pruitt pitched a career-high seven innings last time out against Seattle but also allowed six runs on 11 hits and two walks in a 7-1 loss this past Friday. This will be his first career start against Toronto, although he is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in three previous relief appearances against the Blue Jays. Returning to Stroman, he limited Tampa Bay to two runs on six hits over 6.1 innings last Wednesday in a 3-2 Toronto victory. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rays (team is 5-5).

I favor Stroman over the rookie Pruitt, who owns a 1.50 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with that 5.37 ERA. Play the Blue Jays.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Washington vs. Houston
Play: Washington +151

With yesterday's 4-3 victory, Washington has now taken 9 straight over Houston. The Nationals own an NL best, 40-23 road record, as they average over 5.27 RPG as a guest. Edwin Jackson has won b-2-b starts as the RH improved to 4-2 with a 3.43 mark on the campaign. Mike Fiers has gotten "lit-up" over his L5 turns, going 0-4, with a whopping, 7.36 ERA, to bring the RH's record up to 7-8, with a 4.32 ERA. Washington is 4-0 their L4 gammas played vs. RH starters, 5-1 their L6 games played on the road, and 7-0 their L7 games played in Houston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +130 over Texas

Sometimes the line dictates the play and that is certainly the case here so allow us to set it up for you. The Rangers have won six of their last nine games while Andrew Cashner has a 3.31 ERA after 20 starts. What makes this line so curious is that Andrew Heaney has made just one start this year and it occurred last week in Baltimore in which he lasted a mere 5.1 frames after allowing four jacks (!), not to mention a .304 BAA. It’s is therefore odd or unreasonable that the Halos are favored in the -150 to -160 range when this market pays so much attention to ERA’s.

A closer look however, reveals that Texas swept Detroit, split four games with the South Side and defeated the Angels in the opener of this series to comprise of their six wins. They lost 10-1 last night. Furthermore, Andrew Heaney will not be pitching in Baltimore here. Take away those four jacks in that small park against a home-run hitting team and his pitching line would look entirely different. In making his first start in over one full year, Heaney had a 15% swing and miss rate and didn’t walk a single batter. We have to trust that he’s feeling rather jubilant after such a fine performance, despite the results. With that one start under his belt with no ill effects, Heaney is in line to do very well here. The line says so.

As far as Andrew Cashner goes, well, we’ve been suggesting that you ignore his surface stats because they are a mirage and our position on that has not changed one bit. In his last start, Cahsner walked four and struck out two but pitched to a 3.18 ERA. Mirage, my friends. In 120 innings overall, Cashner has a despicable BB/K split of 48/61. He also has a 5.81 xERA but that xERA is 6.83 over his last four starts. Andrew Cashner’s ERA over his last four starts is 2.10. That’s four runs lower than his xERA and quite frankly, it’s absurd. It’s time for Cashner’s charmed existence to come to an end and this line strongly suggests that’s precisely what will take place here.

Washington +149 over HOUSTON

Edwin Jackson came into this season as a well-travelled journeyman/innings-eater for non-contending rotations that had been savaged by injuries and needed 2nd half help. The Nationals were not a non-contender but they were in desperate need for starting rotation help and went off the grid to find Jackson. Edwin Jackson may end up being the steal of the year. In six starts, he’s been outstanding with a 3.43/4.01 ERA/xERA split. Jackson is just 33-years-old and he’s throwing 94 MPH with fade. His swing and miss rate of 12% supports the 26 K’s he’s posted over his last 30 innings against just eight walks. His line-drive rate is also elite at just 14%. Edwin Jackson is perceived as this replacement level starter that his way past his prime but there is no denying that dude has found something. His underlying skills say it’s legit too.

Mike Fiers comes in with a 4.32 ERA to go along with 131 K’s in 133 innings but his underlying numbers say he’s more fluke than talent. His strand rate of 78% is well-above league average. That’s one luck area where regression is imminent. Fiers hasn't been able to maintain 2016's control gains, as his underlying first-pitch strike rate and Ball% remain stuck below league average. Fiers has walked 53 batters. Though Fiers has made positive changes this season—going to the changeup more often—his June/July/August run is mostly a fluke. His 5.46 xERA over the past three months isn't convinced that he’s better than before and neither are we. Houston may indeed win here but if we’re sticking to playing value, Washington must be played here because its chances of winning may be better.

Minnesota -1½ +112 over CHICAGO

Facing an always shaky Kyle Gibson last night, the South Side had numerous chances in the first three innings to put up some crooked numbers but failed miserably. With seven base-runners in the first three innings, which including a bases loaded no out opportunity in the third, the White Sox scored one run and it came via the wild pitch. Opportunity would not strike again for the remainder of the game while the Twins managed to score four times on a very good looking rookie. Now the Twins take a huge step down in class from anything they’ve seen over the past three weeks when they face James Shields.

Shields’ is actually throwing better these days with a BB/K split of 10/30 over his last 27 innings but he’s still walking too many and giving up too many hard hit balls. His batted ball profile in his last start was 31% grounders, 46% line-drives and 23% fly-outs. He still has a weak overall BB/K split of 35/74 over 84 frames. Shields’ overall WHIP is also weak at 1.57 and it was weak during that aforementioned 27 innings better stretch too at 1.47. It’s not every pitcher who can rack up a 6-19 record with an ERA approaching 6.00 and still have a job the next year. Such is the case with James Shields who despite his 2016 struggles, opened this year with a spot in the rotation. He’s still in said rotation with an xERA of 5.44 but when you get behind Big Game James" it’s a dangerous game of chicken.

Ervin Santana seemingly has faded since the All-Star Break (4.35 ERA) but nothing could be further from the truth. He has an excellent 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 72% first-pitch strike rate so far in the second half. Santana has a BB/K split of 7/34 over his last 33 frames covering five starts and he’ll now face a young, inexperienced and impatient group of hitters in the White Sox lineup. Not only is Santana in great from but his expertise in sequencing should bode well here in fooling a group that is so raw.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini

Mariners vs. Braves
Play: Mariners -115

Tuesday the Braves pitching staff surrendered just five hits to defeat the Mariners 4-0. The outing presented the obvious that road fatigue could be setting in for the Mariners. Wednesday marks their sixth straight road game as they embark on a total of twelve. Look for veteran Erasamo Ramirez and the Mariners bats to showcase that the oddmakers are correct tabbing them as slight favorites.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Arizona at New York
Play: Arizona -155

The Mets are actually the play-on side in the series sweep revenge angle, but I’ll buck that trend here. Zack Godley is throwing for Arizona, and while he got knocked around in his most recent start, I don’t see that off game as cause for alarm. He was still generating loads of K’s, and I didn’t see any red flags to suggest Godley is suddenly going to hit the skids.

Chris Flexen will pitch tonight for the Mets. The young righty is flashing some promise, but I don’t think he’s ready to win consistently at this level just yet. Too many walks and early indicators are that he’s going to be vulnerable to long balls with some fly ball tendencies. I think it’s safe to suggest that Flexen is still a year away and is only with the big club now due to all the injuries in the rotation.

There’s certainly no bargain to be had here, and that’s going to pretty much be the case from here on with any game that features a contender vs. a run of the mill opponent. Opinion here is that even at the fairly steep tag, the Diamondbacks are the right side.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +109

The Rays have now won two games in a row after losing eight of nine. Wednesday they’ll face a bigger test as they face Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman. Thus far in three starts against the Rays this season Stroman has allowed a total of five runs. Yet, look for the Rays to continue on to stay back on track with another win Wednesday.

[New York Knight]

OVER 13-3 in Reds' last 16 overall, incl. 6-0 in their last 6 home games.

OVER is 35-14-3 in their last 52 meetings w/ Cubs.


CHC/CIN Total:10

[New York Knight]

Yanks 7-1 Severino's last 8 & 6-1 their last 7 @ DET.

Tigers 3-13 last 16 overall & 2-8 Zimm's last 10 vs teams above .500


NYY-212 / DET+194

[New York Knight]

Marlins are 8-1 in last 9 vs righties & 9-2 in Nicolino's last 11 starts vs teams below .500.

Phillies 1-5 last 6 @ home.


MIA-122 / PHI+113

[New York Knight]

Dodgers are 54-10 in their last 64 overall, 7-1 in Rich Hill's last 8 starts & 5-0 in last 5 meetings with Pirates.


LAD -160 / PIT +150

[New York Knight]

Under 9-0 in Nationals last 9 interleague games.

Under 5-1 in Jackson's last 6 starts.

Under 5-0 in Astros' last 5 at home.


WAS/HOU Total:9.5

[New York Knight]

MLB Public % (Top 5) Bets


Dbacks -186 68%
Twins -145 64%
Jays -106 63%


Public: 5-0 Yesterday : 70-54 Last 30 Days

[New York Knight]

Mets are 3–21 this season vs the teams with the 3 best records in the NL:

Dodgers (0–7)

Nationals (3–9)

D-Backs (0–5)