Saturday 9-2-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Edwards

Appalachian State is 27-5 in its past 32 games and has lost by more than 14 points only twice in its past 33. Georgia, a 14½-point home favorite Saturday against the Mountaineers, hasn’t won by more than 14 points in 17 consecutive games.

Kirby Smart’s team went 0-4 against the spread as a home favorite last season. Going back further, Georgia is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 games as a double-digit home favorite.

Scott Satterfield’s squad returns 14 of 22 starters from a 10-3 team that lost on the road against Tennessee and Troy and at home vs. Miami. Appalachian State should have won outright at Neyland Stadium in last year’s opener, but a missed extra point and fourth-quarter field goal allowed the Volunteers to rally from a double-digit halftime deficit and win in overtime.

Mountaineers senior quarterback Taylor Lamb has made 36 career starts, throwing 63 touchdown passes and only 26 interceptions. He rushed for 505 yards and nine touchdowns last season. Lamb leads a balanced offense that brings back Jalin Moore, the Sun Belt’s offensive player of the year in 2016 with 1,402 yards rushing and 10 TDs.

Appalachian State’s offensive line features three players with NFL futures in Colby Gossett, Beau Nunn and Victor Johnson. The Mountaineers also return their leading receiver in Shaedon Meadors, who will face a Bulldogs secondary that probably will be missing one of its best players in injured senior safety Malkom Parrish.

Appalachian State returns seven starters from a salty defense that allowed only 17.8 points per game last season. The unit is led by senior linebacker Eric Boggs, who has started 32 straight games. He had a team-best 98 tackles, three sacks and three interceptions last season.

Look for the Mountaineers to give Georgia fits for four quarters and cover the number as a 14½-point underdog.

Georgia Southern (+34) over AUBURN — Georgia Southern has compiled a 7-1 spread record against Atlantic Coast Conference and Southeastern Conference foes since 2011. Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite of 19 points or more. With Clemson on deck next week, Gus Malzahn will try to get his best players out of harm’s way as early as possible. The Eagles’ run-oriented offense that eats clock also will help the cause.

South Carolina (+5) over North Carolina State — This is a toss-up game in terms of which team wins outright, so I’ll gladly take the points. The Gamecocks return 16 starters from a six-win team that unexpectedly earned a bowl bid. Will Muschamp has finally found a quality quarterback in sophomore Jake Bentley, who led the team to four wins in seven starts. South Carolina’s defense gets linebacker Skai Moore back after a redshirt season. Moore led the Gamecocks in tackles in 2013, ’14 and ’15.

Alabama (-7) over Florida State — The crucial matchup of Alabama’s defensive line versus Florida State’s offensive line will be one-sided in favor of the Crimson Tide, especially in the second half. Look for Nick Saban’s team to win by 10 to 17 points thanks to big plays from his defense that’s led by junior safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

South Alabama (+24) over MISSISSIPPI — Joey Jones’ team went into Starkville and beat Mississippi State as a 28-point underdog in last year’s opener. South Alabama also dealt previously unbeaten and 19th-ranked San Diego State a 42-24 loss en route to earning the second postseason berth in school history. Ole Miss, which will be without two suspended defensive starters, has limped to a 2-6 spread record with three outright defeats in its past eight games as double-digit chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MMA OddsBreaker

Felipe Silva v Mairbek Taisumov
Pick: Felipe Silva +210

Silva will be returning to the Octagon from an extended layoff following a first round knockout of Shane Campbell in his promotional debut, which came a year ago. He will be looking to extend his unbeaten professional mixed martial arts record to 9-0 with an impressive victory over Taisumov, who will unquestionably be his stiffest test to date. The Dagestani has a 25-5 pro MMA record and is 5-1 in the UFC, currently enjoying a four fight winning streak with all victories coming by way of T/KO. Much like his counterpart, he is returning from an extended layoff and has not seen action in more than a year. I think this is a close fight in the UFC’s 155-pound division, and at the current odds, I favor the +210 underdog Silva for a value play. Taisumov is a talented and vicious striker, as is evident by his current four-fight T/KO streak, however I think the Brazilian is capable of outstriking him in this contest. I would not be surprised to see Silva pull off the T/KO here, but I think he is more likely to pull of the upset on the judges’ scorecards. At the current price, I think he is the right side for a play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

App State +14 over GEORGIA

We absolutely like the direction the Bulldogs are headed in the Kirby Smart era but this roster is still two good recruiting classes away from quality depth and competition at every position. Georgia returns a high number of starters but they are also a lot of players being molded into new roles, which in itself can be somewhat transitional. All told, it would be unreasonable to expect the Dawgs to be one of those teams that looks in midseason form right out of the gate but they’re priced like it here. They’ll now face a team that can go anyplace in America and compete, not look out of place or not be intimidated by the setting.

Appalachian State is a fully-seasoned, veteran group that knows exactly who it is, free of any glaring weaknesses. This year's Mountaineers are the product of five years of building under Scott Satterfield since transitioning to the FBS level and their 20-scholarship increase in recruiting. App State took Tennessee to overtime to open last year, and now, past lessons in hand, gets a second chance at a regional blueblood. The Mountaineers are coming with purpose and belief and they will probably take every ounce of Georgia's A-game to get past them. Any signs of Georgia players letting their minds wander away from respecting the task at hand will point to getting serious about backing the 'dog to win outright. Don’t be surprised if that happens and don’t be afraid to put App State in a couple of money-line parlays either. Georgia's Week 2 road game at Notre Dame figures to be on their minds too, Take these generous points and expect to cash this ticket.

Kent State +41 over CLEMSON

The opening weekend will be a ceremonious one for the Tigers, as there will be plenty of festivities and fanfare in Death Valley, as the Clemson faithful will raise the 2016 National Champion banner to commemorate their storied run to glory. Though Clemson has a huge riddle to solve with their quarterback situation while also dealing with a huge off-loading of the talent that propelled the Tigers to said championship, Clemson will be priced nonetheless like any other top-five defending champ: heavily inflated. By no means are we here to argue that Kent State is going to wreck Clemson’s festivities but it can be conceived that the Golden Flashes are taking back a plethora of inflated points. Clemson isn’t likely to be in kill or high intensity mode here while the dog will be. The Golden Flashes were scheduled by Clemson to be a virtual win. The Tigers did this so they can focus more of their attention on the celebratory activities and less on a threatening opponent that could rain on their parade.

However, Kent State has a litany of experience playing against some of the best teams in America as a scheduled tune-up opponent. In 2016, K-State faced Penn State and Alabama on the road, so Death Valley will be just another day at the office for them. Kent State finished 3-9 in 2016 but their record is a bit misleading. The Golden Flashes could have been bowl eligible had a few bounces gone their way. Outside of their losses to ‘Bama and PSU, the Golden Flashes lost four of their seven games by a margin of four points or less and much of their demise was rooted in their lack of offensive production. K-State’s defense was sound all year and that defense returns nine starters, including all four defensive backs and three of their leading tacklers. While Clemson begins to rediscover itself in the post-Dashaun Watson era, this game reminds us of the Harlem Globetrotters playing the Washington Generals with the Tigers being the Globetrotters. In other words, pick an opponent to toy with, treat it as an exhibition game, pull off a few tricks and send the fans home happy. Indeed the fans will go home satisfied after a glorious of day of football in one of the greatest venues and atmospheres in the country. We can’t say the same about going home happy for those spotting 41 points.

Vanderbilt -3 over MID TENNESSEE ST

Laying road chalk can be a dicey proposition and is something we usually avoid but we must go after the true value and the Commodores are being sold very short here. Each of the last two years, when Middle Tennessee had better teams and Vandy wasn't as good, the Commodores won and covered as a 2½-point underdog and 3½-point favorite, respectively. When comparing the 2015 Vanderbilt victory to their 2016 shellacking of the Blue Raiders in Music City, it is evident that Vanderbilt is making noticeable strides under Derek Mason. In 2016, the Commodores thrashed the Blue Raiders by a score of 47-24, closing at an identical price to the one we see offered here. Now in 2017, the Vanderbilt team taking the field could be Vandy’s most promising unit it has fielded since former coach James Franklin left for Penn State. The ‘Dores feature a stable of talented running backs, led by perhaps one of the best rushers in America, Ralph Webb. Complemented by a stout and solid defense, the Commodores are a team that can flirt with the 10-win mark if a few things go their way this year. Vandy’s reputation as a perennial middling ball team works to our advantage here big time.

The Blue Raiders come with a lot of promise in their own right, as they return a dynamic offense and a prolific passer in senior quarterback Brent Stockstill to lead the charge. Furthermore, the Blue Raiders have the benefit of playing this one at home where they are typically tough to beat. However, some of Middle Tennessee State’s exploits in 2016 argue otherwise. Middle Tennessee State’s defense was among the worst in the country. MTSU’s abysmal defeat in the Hawaii Bowl captures this in vivid color. The Blue Raiders would jump out to a 14-point lead against the Rainbow Warriors only to surrender it down the backstretch and be pummeled by a final score of 52-35. This is a team that also had its doors blown off as a 19-point favorite against Texas-San Antonio when the Blue Raiders would fall 45-25 at home in Murfreesboro. In the aforementioned outing, MTSU gave up a generous 271 yards on the ground. The Blue Raiders surrendered an average of 449 yards per game and this year’s edition is not expected to be an improved one.

Endorsements of Mid-Tennessee State will be few and far between in this space and in Week 1 we seek to attack weak defenses in difficult situations. Communication issues, substitution gaffes and other unforced errors of game management can be worth significant points to the favorite. Derek Mason has shown the ability to coach Vanderbilt to easy victories over Mid-Tennessee and make the Blue Raiders high-octane offense look uncomfortable for 60 minutes. This year Vandy is so much better while State is worse and the outcome will very likely be the same, that being a Vandy win and cover.

Temple +19 over NOTRE DAME

Notre Dame is a team that needs no introductions but on the opening Saturday of the college football season, you will be paying some massive premiums to back some blue bloods and this is a great example of that. The Golden Domes assignment today is not as easy as this line suggests it will be, as they are going up against the defending American Athletic Conference Champions. Temple was not expected to win the American last year. All eyes were on Houston, USF, and Navy as the top choices. Nevertheless, Temple did what it does best and played sound defense to expose notoriously offensive-oriented ball clubs. The rest is history.

In 2016, Temple featured one of the best passing defenses in all of America. However, many analysts argue that the Owls are due for attrition with a regime change coupled with three of their premiere pass rushers leaving town. The most notable loss for the Owls was defensive end Hasson Reddick who ascended to become a first round draft-pick. However the defensive backfield that was responsible for producing stellar numbers in 2016 returns in full force. In addition, the hiring of Geoff Collins figures to help the continual growth for this program, as he is a defensive specialist. Collins spent many years coaching in the SEC as a defensive coordinator for Mississippi State and most recently the Florida Gators. The performance of the Gators’ defense speaks for itself, as Collins managed to architect defensive units responsible for leading the Orange and Blue to two consecutive SEC Championship Games in 2015 and 2016, while having to whether often inconsistent shoe-string Gator offenses to complement them. Temple is simply not known as a good football team. For many years, Temple has been regarded as one of college football’s kick-around teams. Few can recall a time where the Owls were playing at a high level for such an extended period of time and as a result of this prejudice, many are expecting a collapse. A road trip to Notre Dame in the eyes the market is primed to be the catalyst.

On the contrary, expectations are often very high for Notre Dame yet they are the ones who have failed to live up to the hype. Since being smoked in the National Championship in the 2012-2013 by the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Fighting Irish have had just one 10-win season. 2016 was their worst effort of all, as Notre Dame finished 4-8 and failed to make a bowl game. Lastly, Notre Dame could easily find itself ensnared here as they may be guilty of looking ahead to Week Two when they host the Bulldog Nation of Georgia in one of the most anticipated contests of 2017. We have an opportunity to step in on a defending conference champion at an enhanced price. and that’s precisely how we’ll proceed.

Western Michigan +27½ over USC

The press machine may be running out of ink with all the hype surrounding the Trojans in the off-season. Whether it be the explosive run they concocted to finish their 2016 season, their dramatic Rose Bowl victory or the play of Sam Darnold, the Trojans come in to 2017 with expectations through the roof. To further embellish this principle, Sam Darnold has emerged as a pre-season favorite for the Heisman and NFL scouts are already drooling over the prodigal signal caller by dubbing him the next big thing. Such pandemonium has generated a lot of buzz. The Trojans are the trendy and popular choice for many distinctions in the early going. What that essentially does is provide us with opportunities to take back inflated points, which is something we’re always on the lookout for.

Western Michigan comes in off the heels of what has to be classified as a dream season. Despite the fact they fell in the Cotton Bowl against Wisconsin, the Broncos fielded their greatest team in school history when they ran the table in the regular season and followed it up with a MAC Championship. With the architect behind the storied run, P.J Fleck moving onto Minnesota, along with Corey Davis and Zach Terrell also heading onward from Mount Pleasant, the Broncos are expected to come crashing down to Earth in their 2017 follow-up. Opening against the Men of Troy in the Coliseum seems like a prime scenario to expedite that process.

While this may seem like a keen situation to swallow the heavy glass of juice, the Broncos return two key ingredients that helped make that special sauce that powered them to greatness in 2016. Their names: Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin. Franklin emerged on the scene in 2014 as a prolific running back that went onto earn honors, including Mid-American Conference Freshman of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year. Bogan came into the fold to join Franklin as an effective 1-2 punch, which the Broncos wielded all throughout 2016 on opponents that had no answer for the dynamic duo. When taking back big lumber, we want our side to have some cover abilities and WMU has that in spades. They have the ability to run the ball and use up some clock and they also have the ability to score points to come in through the back door. Both those traits combined should provide more than enough firepower to get WMU in under the number here.

COASTAL CAROLINA +115 over UMass

Coastal Carolina opened as a three-point favorite but very quickly a steady heap of steam on UMass has now positioned the Chanticleers as a home pooch. We love this situation because the scenario sets up perfectly for Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are playing their first ever game as a full-fledged FBS participant and they have the opportunity to do so under the lights against an opponent that comes in wounded off a bitter loss at home a week ago. On August 26th, Massachusetts fell 38-35 to visiting Hawaii, who would steal the win with a touchdown in the last minute of play. Though the contest shaped up perfectly for the Minutemen to hit the ground running against a jet-lagged opponent that traveled across five time zones and over 5,000 miles, UMass failed to capitalize and blew a two touchdown lead en route to their jagged defeat. The emotional toll of this loss has yet to be seen but you can be rest assured Coastal Carolina is jacked up for this contest.

Though the Chanticleers have perhaps the most unique name across the country, very little is known about them be it that they are in their transition year at the FBS level. Nevertheless, their profile fits that of a team that can make an immediate splash because they are accustomed to playing at a high level. In 2016, Coastal Carolina finished 10-2 winning their last six contests in a row to round off its season. The two losses for the Chanticleers were settled on both occasions by one point. Both of those losses came against top-10 ranked FCS opponents, one of which was a double overtime inferno against Charleston Southern. The Chanticleers were not eligible for postseason qualification in 2016, as they already secured membership to the Sun Belt Conference in July but had not progressed to full football member. So essentially, they were playing FCS ball but were already a FBS constituent. This year, the Chanticleers will be unable to attend a bowl game by virtue of this arduous process but they can still make a name for themselves in the regular season and it can be derived that they are fully inclined to do so. UMass finished as one of the worst teams in the FBS in 2016 and are one of the lowest ranked clubs in 2017. Coastal Carolina is one of the better teams UMass may face all year and they are certainly in the upper echelons with respect to FCS ensembles. The bias of FBS vs. FCS is one that often jades many public opinions and results in a lot of ripped up tickets. We have seen this is in extremity with North Dakota State defeating Iowa in Kinnick Stadium in 2016. The same line of thinking had been applied there but the Bison had other ideas. However, we must urge all that Coastal Carolina is NO longer a FCS team and they will look to make this clear against a beleaguered UMass team at home in front of an enthusiastic fan base. CC outright gets this call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

TROY (+9.5) over Boise State

We are 4-1 on our last five football free picks and today we grab an underrated Troy team catching points. The Trojans return 15 starters from last year’s team that went 10-3 and won a bowl game. They certainly won’t be intimidated by this trip West if you consider last year they nearly upset Clemson on the road, losing 30-24. The once-vaunted home field advantage for Boise State is no more as the Broncos are now just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the blue turf. Boise State also has a huge grudge match on deck next week against Washington State and may get caught looking ahead. Take the points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

Temple / Notre Dame Under

Someone must have left the iron on… ‘cause this game is STEAMING! At least from the pointspread perspective. Notre Dame opened up as a favorite of -13 points in this game against the Temple Owls. At last look, the Irish were all the way up to -18 or -18.5. From an OU perspective, there has not been the same kind of extreme movement. The OU line opened at 55.5 points. As we type this on Friday afternoon, the line stands at 55.5 to 56 points. Both of these teams finished their respective 2016 seasons with fairly consistent low-scoring results. Notre Dame closed the year on a 2-6 O/U run in their last 8 games… and Temple went 1-5 O/U to close the season, including an UNDER by -15 points in their AAC Championship Game against Navy.

Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks this season. DeShone Kizer of the Irish decided to test the NFL waters, and he’s now the #1 guy for the Cleveland Browns. On the flip side, PJ Walker was a FOUR-year staple at QB for the Owls, but he’s gone. And new head coach Geoff Collins has said that as many as THREE Temple QBS could see playing time on Saturday. Gonna be tough to develop any sort of offensive rhythm with that king of merry-go-round at the QB position.

This game has a lot of ‘newness’ to it. As mentioned above, Geoff Collins replaces Matt Rhule. And Collins is known as a defense-FIRST guy. After all he was defense coordinator for one of the best stop units (and UNDER team) in all of college football: the Florida Gators. He should have no problem extending the Owls’ greatness on ‘D’ another year. Remember, Temple had the 3rd BEST defense last season in all of football and allowed only 18 points per game. While Notre Dame still has the same head coach, THREE new coordinators will be getting their feet wet.

Our database simulations punt to a final score of:

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH 31

TEMPLE OWLS 17