Tuesday 9-5-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Watch Monitor

MLB MILWAUKEE ‑140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gary Bart

Rangers vs. Braves
Play:Rangers +120

The Rangers are coming off a big win in Game 1 of this series. They are 5-2 over their last six ballgames. Atlanta are 1-4 over their last five games. Both starting pitchers have pitched well this season. Texas need a win. Take the Rangers on the road over the Braves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Computer Gambler

Indians vs. White Sox
Play: Indians -1½

The Indians are 13-2 ON since Aug 11, 2017 as a road favorite

KEY TREND OF THE DAY: In recent database history, favorites or road dogs lined more expensive in their last 3 games including current are 117-688 63.1% SU +238.62 units against a team the books have made cheaper in price in their last 3 games including this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco -1½ +300 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

24-38 + 28.55 units

CINCINNATI +127 over Milwaukee

Zach Davies has posted some very appealing surface stats lately. First, he’s 8-1 on the road with a 2.13 ERA. Secondly, Davies is 2-1 over his last three starts with an ERA of 0.90 and he’s coming off a seven-inning, six-hit, two-run performance against the Nationals. Yes indeed, Zach Davies has market appeal but don’t get caught buying into his success. Over his last 39 frames, Davies has 23 K’s with a 7% swing and miss rate. His first-pitch strike rate is 54% while his fastball barely tops off at 88 MPH. Zach Davies’ success this year has been fueled by a high 77% strand rate and an 80% strand rate over his last five starts. While he’s absolutely a serviceable pitcher that has value when taking back a tag, he’s a bigger risk than it appears because he doesn’t miss a lot of bats and is at the mercy of all those luck-driven stats like BABIP, strand %, hit rate and hr/f. Dude is overpriced here. His 1.34 WHIP and 4.94 xERA say so.

Meanwhile, Robert Stephenson has filthy stuff. Stephenson has 62 K’s in 59 frames with an amazing 17% swing and miss rate. Stephenson is a former first-round righty with impressive raw stuff that includes three plus pitches. His fastball will flash plus-plus with run and sink, though he relies on working it high in the zone, which leads to control issues. That’s getting better, however. The curve flashes plus with hard depth and generates swings-and-misses low in the zone while the change fades with tumble and is another plus offering. The risk is that he walks too many batters but his recent form is good enough to get behind because his raw stuff is so good, which matters at this park. Stephenson has ace-stuff without the control but he’s walking less folks and he’ll now face a Brewers’ squad that strikes out more than any team in baseball not named Tampa Bay. The Reds continue to play well at home and hit righties well too. This game is not priced correctly and therefore must be played.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports

St. Louis vs. San Diego
Pick: St. Louis -155

I gave out the Cardinals in this space yday and will repeat myself today for most of the same reasons. We got "peak Padres" over the weekend (took 3 of 4 from Dodgers!), but as discussed yday, that wasn't bound to last. This is a team that ranks last in most key offensive categories and as a result has the worst run differential in all of MLB. Meanwhile, St. Louis badly needs to continue winning here as they are still three games back of the NL's 2nd Wild Card.

I was not surprised to see Carlos Martinez mow down the Padres last night in shutout fashion. Martinez allowed only three hits in a CG effort which saw him achieve 10 strikeouts. Somewhat surprisingly, it was only the 9th time that SD was blanked this year. But three of those have now come in the last eight games. So look for a strong showing here by the Cards' Michael Wacha, who is coming off a quality effort anyway. Last week against the Giants, Wacha allowed just 1 run in 6 IP.

San Diego never got a runner into scoring position last night nor was there an inning where they had multiple runners on base. Again, this is what you'd expect from the worst offensive team in all of MLB. As for what we should expect from Tuesday starter Travis Wood, well, the prognosis is no more encouraging on that side of the ledger either. Wood has a 5.37 ERA in 31 career appearances against St. Louis and his 2017 numbers (5.36 ERA, 1.590 WHIP) hardly offer any reason for optimism.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Texas vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta

The set-up: The Rangers won 8-2 on Monday at Atlanta, climbing within two games of Minnesota for the second wild-card spot in the American League (it's a crowded field, though). This three-game IL series continues Tuesday night with the 69-68 Rangers having won 16 of their past 25 games to get back into wild-card contention. Meanwhile, after reaching .500 on July 16 (45-45), the Braves have gone just 15-31 since to fall to 60-76, including 6-15 at home during the swoon.

The pitching matchup: Miguel Gonzalez (7-10 & 4.31 ERA) will take the mound for Texas and Julio Teheran (9-11 & 4.75 ERA) for Atlanta. Gonzalez pitched well in his final five starts with the Chicago White Sox, going 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in 34 innings. However, he was dealt to the Rangers after giving up three runs on seven hits at Minnesota this past Tuesday. Gonzalez spent a month on the disabled list with shoulder tightness but he made nine starts for the White Sox since his return. "He's been throwing very well the last couple of months," Texas general manager John Daniels said after making the deal. Gonzalez has never faced the Braves but he is 4-6 with a 3.59 ERA in 15 interleague games. He makes his first start for Texas in this one. Teheran makes his 28th start of the season after an August during which he posted his second-best monthly ERA (3.65) in 2017. Teheran closed the month with two excellent starts, surrendering one run with eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings at Philadelphia on Wednesday after giving up two runs over 7 1/3 frames in win over Colorado five days earlier in Atlanta. Teheran has faced the Rangers just once, taking a loss in 2014 despite going eight innings while up three runs on three hits while striking out six and walking one.

The pick: Home (Turner Field) was always a good place for Teheran but Atlanta's new SunTrust Park has been a 'House of Horrors.' He's 2-9 with a 6.54 ERA in 14 starts (Braves are 4-10). That said, there is no real reason for Teheran's home struggles. He's looked very good in his last two starts (one home/ one away) and I'll back him here vs. Gonzalez, who has struggled on the road this season, posting a 3-7 record and 5.23 ERA over 13 starts (White Sox were 4-9).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Play: Milwaukee -133

Milwaukee and Cincinnati are scheduled for a Tuesday night first pitch of 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park with the Brewers sending Zach Davies (16-7, 3.85 ERA) to the hill to oppose the Reds Robert Stephenson (3-4, 5.52).

The Brewers ace, Davies, has a 2.13 ERA in his 14 starts away from hitter-friendly Miller Park. In truth, Davies has been solid no matter the venue, going 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA over his last 13 turns.

The Crew right-hander has 16 wins on the season and has a chance, all things being perfect to the close of the regular season, to earn 20 "W's" on the season. Davies threw his fourth straight quality start in his last outing and comes into tonight's event with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP on the year.

Davies has been at his best when facing a team in the top-half of the league in strikeouts per nine innings. Count one of those teams the Cincinnati Reds. Davies doesn't miss a large number of bats and pitches to contact. Evidence of this comes with his 6.08 K/9. His 28% soft contact rate has allowed him to strand nearly 74 percent of his base runners this 2017 campaign and he has a favorable matchup against inconsistent Robert Stephenson of Cincy tonight.

Stephenson is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his four starts and one relief appearance this month, August, but those numbers come with overdue regression. The former top prospect comes into tonight's event sporting a 5.52 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP and while he misses bats when he is spot on his nearly 6 BB/9, and 1.88 HR/9 in combination with a .319 BABIP and 5.86 FIP don't work at this level in a year where the ball is "live".

[New York Knight]

Nationals are 40-11 in Strasburg's last 51 starts overall & 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs Marlins.


WAS -180 / MIA +165

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights ...


Most Lopsided Games Tonight


83% on Nats -188 at MIA

82% on Astros -157 at SEA

76% on Cubs -170 at PIT

[New York Knight]

CLE has outscored its opponents 84-21 during its season-high 12-game win streak.

[New York Knight]

Indians are 12-0 in their last 12 games overall, including 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. left-handed starters


CLE -259 / CHW +235

[New York Knight]

Under 10-0-1 in Blach's last 11 vs NL West.

Under 11-4 in Giants' last 15 overall.

Under 9-1 in Rockies' last 10 @ home.


SF/COL Total: 12