Monday 9-11-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jack Jones
Sep 11 '17, 8:05 PM
MLB | Mariners vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -131 at betonline

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Texas Rangers -131

The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are both within 3 games of the Twins for the final wild card spot in the American League. This is a big series for both teams, and I'm going to back the home team in Game 1 with the better starting pitcher on the mound.

Cole Hamels hasn't lost at home yet this season, going 6-0 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in nine starts. He'll be opposed by Ariel Miranda, who is 5-3 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in 15 road starts this year. Miranda gave up 5 runs and 3 homers in 5 2/3 innings of a 1-5 loss at Texas on August 2nd in his last start against the Rangers.

The Rangers are 46-18 in Hamels' last 64 starts, including 25-6 in his last 31 home starts. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five road games. Texas is 4-1 in Hamels' last five home starts vs. Seattle. The Mariners are 3-9 in their last 12 meetings in Texas. Bet the Rangers Monday.

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Andre Ramirez
Sep 11 '17, 9:40 PM
MLB | Rockies vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks -1½ +110 at GTBets

MLB 75 DIME FREE GAME

The Rockies had a solid series in Los Angeles against the slumping Dodgers, while the Diamondbacks just lost two in a row at home against the Padres. Kyle Freeland has been the best starter for the Rockies this year, but he is going up against Zack Greinke, who has gone a very impressive 13-1 with a 2.31 ERA here at home for the year. The Diamondbacks have gone 14-2 in Greinke’s 16 home starts this year and they have gone 45-25 at home for the year overall, while the Rockies have gone a mediocre 36-35 on the road. The Diamondbacks are the better team and they have the better starter on the mound for this one, plus they average 5.63 rpg at home, while the Rockies put up 4.31 rpg on the road.

Arizona wins 6-3. Lay the money on the Run Line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Sep 11 '17, 9:40 PM
MLB | COL vs ARI
Play on: OVER 9 -110

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Rockies/Diamondbacks OVER 9

We have two potent offenses here in a hitter's ballpark with a total of just 9 in this game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. These are two teams capable of scoring 9 runs on their own, and the likely candidate today would be the Diamondbacks. Kyle Freeland is 5-3 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 road starts this year. He's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Zack Greinke is having a very good year, but he hasn't exactly shut down the Rockies, going 9-5 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 23 previous starts against them. He has allowed a total of 7 homers in his last five starts against Colorado. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockies last six games overall. The OVER is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last seven home games.

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Info Plays
Sep 11 '17, 7:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Pirates vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -161 at betonline

1* Free Play on Brewers -161

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Mike Williams
Sep 11 '17, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Yankees vs Rays
Play on: Yankees -135 at GTBets

1* on Yankees -135

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Scott Rickenbach
Sep 11 '17, 7:40 PM
MLB | Pirates vs Brewers
Play on: Brewers -1½ +125 at betonline

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Monday MLB Free Pick Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - The Brewers, despite some recent slumps at the plate, have remained alive in the divisional race and certainly still have playoff hopes. While it may seem "uncomfortable" laying the -1.5 runs consider Milwaukee's general lack of scoring, note that they have scored well in recent match-ups with left-handed starters. This should come as no surprise as they do rank 6th in the National League for batting average versus southpaw pitching. Their last two games against a left-handed starter Milwaukee won by a combined margin of 16 runs and they pounded out 25 hits in the two games. The Brewers should have no trouble with the offerings of Pittsburgh's Steven Brault. The southpaw has a 5.40 ERA in his two career starts at Milwaukee. Also, in his first start this year he was fortunate that he allowed only 3 earned runs in 5 innings as he did give up 8 hits and 2 walks while recording 0 strikeouts. The Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff on the mound in this one and he has a stellar 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts this season plus this is his first ever start against the Pirates so that is an edge for him over Pittsburgh sticks that are not familiar with facing him. The Brewers have won 3 straight and all 3 victories came by at least 2 runs. The Pirates are 7-12 in their last 19 games and 10 of the 12 losses have come by 2 runs or more. Play MILWAUKEE at -1.5 runs on the run line in early evening action Monday. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

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Vic Duke
Sep 11 '17, 7:10 PM
NFL | Saints vs Vikings
Play on: UNDER 47½ -108

Saints/Vikings 7:10: Saints' defense, which has been in the bottom tier of the NFL for the past three years, could be better this year. Their front office worked in the off-season to acquire high caliber defensive players through the draft and free-agency; moreover, they even added a few new coaches. Eventually, we'll see an improvement from them. On the other hand, the Vikings remain defensively strong and have quality corners (Rhodes/Waynes) to take away the Saints' top two receivers. And remember, Snead is suspended for this game. Both run games are bolstered with new additions (Peterson - Saints) (Murray/Cook - Vikings) which are a concern. However, the total showed value at 48 but now falling to 47'. Minnesota is 0-4 O/U on MNF and 4-10 O/U vs the NFC. We'll tread lightly with the "under" here.

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Jimmy Boyd
Sep 11 '17, 7:10 PM
NFL | Saints vs Vikings
Play on: UNDER 48 -110

Free Pick on Saints/Vikings UNDER

A lot of people just instantly look to take the OVER in any game that involves the Saints. However, historically Drew Bree’s and Sean Payton’s offense hasn’t been as lethal on the road. Another big part of that is they have had no choice but to try and outscore teams with how bad their defense has been.

I really thought New Orleans was going to take a bigger step forward than they did on the defensive side of the ball last year. While the numbers weren’t great, I saw a lot of good things in the first year under defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. This could be the year they breakout. The addition of 1st round pick Marshon Lattimore at corner should help improve a secondary that ranked dead last against the pass.

You also have to factor in that the Vikings aren’t a team that figures to be an offensive juggernaut. They ranked just 28th with 315.1 ypg and 23rd in scoring at 20.4. They were also in the bottom half of the league in 3rd down conversions. They should be better now that Bradford has had time to really learn the offense. Plus they improved the offensive line. Still, Zimmer is more of a ball control guy that wants to keep his defense fresh.

Hard to blame him given how well his stop units have played both here and previous when he was the defensive coordinator with the Bengals. Minnesota suffered all kinds of injuries on this side of the ball last year and still finished 3rd in yards allowed (314.9 ypg) and 6th in scoring (19.2 ppg). You can bet he’ll have his unit fired up for this one. Let’s also not forget they get a shot at going against their former star in Adrian Peterson.

I have a hard time seeing the Saints changing up their offense, but maybe they want to control the ball a little more. Why else would you bring in a guy like AP, who needs his touches to be effective and isn’t a huge threat in the passing game.

As you can see, I think defense will be the story line in this one. UNDER is an impressive 17-5 in all Vikings games in the 1st half of the season since Zimmer took over and 17-5 in Minnesota’s last 22 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Take the UNDER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Pick From
VegasButcher

Monday, September 11, 2017 4:00PM - NFL
479 New Orleans Saints vs. 480 Minnesota Vikings

Vikings -3

Analysis
Minnesota Vikings -3

I know the story-line is the return of AP back to Minnesota, but let's not forget that he's a 32-year old RB who averaged 1.9 YPC on 37 carries prior to getting hurt last year. I don't expect him to be a difference-maker in this one. Vikings have a top-10 defense and they are also pretty loaded offensively with Cook, Diggs, Thielen, and Rudolph. Saints 31st ranked D from last year will be without Fairley and top CB Breaux, so I don't see them slowing down the Vikings much in this one. I see Minnesota making enough stops defensively to pull out a win and a cover.

Good Luck

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

NEW YORK AT TAMPA BAY
PLAY: NEW YORK -125

Jake Odorizzi is off his best start of the entire season for Tampa Bay. That might be a buy sign for some, but it’s kind of the opposite for me. Consistency is not exactly Odorizzi’s forte, and I make him a decent candidate to bounce here.

CC Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees. The big lefty has been pretty solid for the most part lately, registering three quality starts in his four most recent efforts. The one that wasn’t so good was his last one. but on balance CC is more go with than go against right now.

Tampa Bay has not fared well against lefties this season, and while the Rays are still mildly alive in the wild card chase, it’s not looking very good for them. The Yankees are still in the hunt to win the AL East, and they’ve now got a pretty good hold on getting to the playoffs via the wild card route, with a 4.5 game lead over the current first team out.

I feel as though the game being played at the home of the Mets due to hurricane issues in Florida, is at least a slight advantage to the Yankees. The price is very palatable and I’ve got the Yankees with the offensive and pitching edges. That’s enough for me and I’ll make the Pinstripes the Monday free play.

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Big Al

Chicago at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -170

A total of 12 different players have gotten starts for the White Sox this season, and you may even see one or two additional before the end of September. When a team is in rebuilding mode -- and no team is in that mode more than Chicago -- there are a lot of opportunities for young (and not so young) arms to get a look in the rotation in the second half of the season. That's basically what's happened with the White Sox and tonight one of those younger pitchers hoping to stick with the club will take the hill as RH Reynaldo Lopez gets his fifth start of the season. The former Washington Nats pitcher has actually looked pretty good for the Sox, but he still walks far too many batters (four per nine innings) and that's a dangerous proposition against a team like the Royals. Veteran RHP Jason Hammel will get his 29th start for Kansas City and despite a losing record at 8-10, Hammel has been pretty good lately for his team, going 3-1 in his last four starts. KC has been producing some runs lately, scoring 11 on Sunday and 37 in their last five games. This will be Hammel's first start vs. the Sox this season, but in his lone start against them in 2016, he went seven strong innings in an 8-1 rout. The Royals are 5-1 in the last six meetings.

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SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA -3 over New Orleans

Their uniforms are ugly. The quarterback isn't much to look at and you know what they say about the weather in Minneapolis, but while they don't look sexy on paper or in person, the Vikings appear to be a decent pick in Week 1. We'll limit our expectations for this team to a week to week basis, as we are not nearly as bullish as some on their status as a Super Bowl sleeper. Their backfield has gone over a major overhaul with the departure of Adrian Peterson, the one-time face of the franchise. He's been replaced by former Raider Latavius Murray but all eyes will be on rookie runner Dalvin Cook, the Florida State standout from a season ago. The strength of this team will again be a defense that finished in the top-10 in DOVA in 2016. It's a unit made up of players that are either in their prime or are going to be soon. The only elder statesman is Terrance Newman, who is still contributing at 39. A great defense can still create misery for the best offenses in today's NFL and the Vikings will have a chance to prove that here.

Minnesota is typically fast out of the gate before their annual drop-off in November. That’s a good trait to begin with but that’s even close to being the main reason for this choice. We’re always looking for other reasons to get behind a team and Adrian Peterson provided us another one here to fade the Saints. Peterson, who is now a Saint, couldn’t help himself, when he claimed that he can’t wait to “stick it to the Vikings”. Firing up a superior opponent by opening up your cake-hole is about the worst thing a player can do. That’s locker room material right there.

At this point, you know what you're getting with the Saints. A high powered offense that typically plays better indoors at the Super Dome and they generally struggle on the road. The Saints have followed that same formula for nearly all of the Sean Payton, Dree Bree era. Sporting a top rated offense but unable to stop anybody when it matters, New Orleans has to play near flawless football if the other team doesn’t make foolish mistakes. Since 2014, only one team with a top five offense has missed the playoffs and that was the Saints. Not much is likely to change, as New Orleans will send out one of the youngest secondaries in the league with an average age of just 23 years. Covering a division full of elite receivers is a lot to ask of a young and unproven group. Another thing working against the Saints' defensive backs is the team's increased commitment to blitz which began last season. In 2015 New Orleans sent five or more pass rushers just 26.8% of the time but that number was way up last season at 41.6%. The Saints have tried everything to improve their defense over the years but it hasn't worked yet. That change in blitzing schemes moved them from last in the league in yards per pass allowed in 2015 (7.9) to 23rd (7.3) last year, a marginal improvement at best. This D-unit was also very fortunate in 2016 after recovering 12 out of 15 opposing teams fumbles but as we've discussed before, turnovers are not a skill based stat and the pendulum can come swinging back the other way just as hard. We can understand that taking points with the high powered New Orleans offense might be appealing but this isn't fantasy football. New Until we see otherwise, we must play the Saints for what we know they are and that's a team that is beatable on its best day and that doesn't typically play its best football on the road.

San Diego +130 over DENVER

18 months removed from celebrating a Super Bowl championship, our assessment on the Broncos is dark (compared to most other sites) and reflects a conceivably grim reality for this franchise. In fact, if the juice wasn’t so high, we would’ve bet the Broncs to go under the posted total of 8½ faster than fantasy players were picking up Kareem Hunt. Some early injury issues have the potential to further push this recently elite operation toward the league’s lower middle class.

Most of Denver’s defensive line suffered injuries during the preseason, and the team’s best facet — the Von Miller-fronted pass-rush crew — is suddenly vulnerable. Miller’s high-end sidekicks are depleted. Shaq Barrett is set but he missed months with a mysterious hip injury. This group being compromised could limit the effectiveness of the Broncos defense, and given how much will be asked of that unit again this season, that would begin a domino effect to mediocrity. Seems a lot will be placed on the offensive line and ground game, with the former comprised of another new group with questions and the latter consisting almost entirely of injury-prone cogs. All of the issues would qualify as additional concerns if this veteran-led operation had an answer at quarterback but they don’t. The signing of Brock Osweiler as backup is the Broncos warning us that their QB situation is not good. The Broncos might have the best receiving tandem in the AFC West but they have the worst quarterback. Marcus Siemian led the Broncos to eight wins last season, which may inspire hope, but here’s the important thing. Just one of those victories came against a playoff team that had its starting quarterback healthy and ironically, that lone victory came against the Houston Texans with the now-departed Brock Osweiler starting. There’s a reason seventh-round picks don’t typically commandeer starting quarterback jobs and through little fault of his own, Siemian could be at the forefront of the Broncos’ steady descent. A lack of a viable alternative thrust Siemian, who would be a backup for most teams, into a difficult spot, making the Broncos a team you do not want to spot spots with against quality opposition like the one they’ll face here.

We’d be playing the Chargers over their posted win total but we don’t play overs in football because every over bet is vulnerable to injuries. If we did play overs, this one would’ve been at the top of our list. The numbers for the Chargers were onto something last season. The one notable exception was their won/loss record, as they seemed likely to vault forward after a 4-12 season in 2015 in which they went 3-8 in one-score games.

While the 2016 Chargers did improve by one win, nobody could argue that they looked better in those close contests. San Diego was an incredible 1-8 in games decided by one touchdown or less. It's one thing for the Chargers to blow a league-high five games they led at halftime. It's another to give away four games in which they either led or were in a tie game with the ball at the two-minute warning. Some of these losses blend together, but it's worth reiterating how many ways the Chargers blew games last season:

In Week 1, they lost to the Chiefs after going up 27-10 with 13 minutes to go, aided by a 17-yard punt inside the two-minute warning that set up the Chiefs with excellent field position.

Two weeks later, the Chargers had a two-point lead against a Colts team facing fourth-and-7 on its own 20-yard line. They allowed a conversion and a 63-yard touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton three plays later.

The next week, San Diego was up 13 points on the Saints with the ball and 6:50 to go. The Chargers fumbled away the ball on each of their next two plays from scrimmage, setting up the Saints for two short touchdowns.

A week later, the Chargers were stuffed on third-and-2, down three points with 3:05 to go. Punter Drew Kaser subsequently muffed the hold on the ensuing 36-yard field goal attempt, costing the Chargers a shot at tying the game. Three weeks later, the Chargers couldn't punch the ball in with four chances from the 2-yard line down eight late against the Broncos.

With 1:13 left in a tie game against the Dolphins, the Chargers needed a few more yards to advance from the Miami 42-yard line and set up a game-winning field goal attempt. Philip Rivers threw a slant under duress to Kiko Alonso, who took it to the house for a game-winning Miami touchdown.

Josh Lambo missed a 45-yard field goal that would have sent the Chargers to overtime against the Browns. Check that again: They lost to the Browns.

That's an unreal string of brutal losses, with three in the first month of the season alone. There was a decent team here. Four of their five wins came against teams with winning records, including a 33-30 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta. The Chargers are 4-16 (.200) in one-score games over the past two seasons. That’s a ringing endorsement that the Chargers are very likely to be much better this year because they’re good and because luck evens out over time. No organization since 1989 has lost more one-score games over a two-year span than the 2015-16 Chargers but the good news is that teams’ who were bad at this got better. The 29 teams who lost 12 or more one-win games over a two-year stretch were a combined 154-423 (.267) during their period in the wilderness. The following year, those same teams posted a winning record in close games, going 123-113 (.521) and they improved their overall win-loss record by an average of 3.2 wins. Perhaps most notably is that the Chargers have more talent than any of those teams, thus, they’re in line for a dramatic win increase.

The Chargers are in a much better place in terms of personnel too. For one, they won't be without star pass-rusher Joey Bosa for the first four games of the season. By the time Bosa made his debut, injuries had sapped the Chargers of several key contributors. Pro Bowl cornerback Jason Verrett went down for the season after four games, while fellow starting corner Brandon Flowers missed 10 games with a pair of concussions. The receiving corps was even further picked apart. Stevie Johnson hit injured reserve with a torn meniscus before the season even began. Star wideout Keenan Allen tore his ACL during the first half of Week 1. Receiving back Danny Woodhead suffered his own season-ending knee injury the following week. Philip Rivers was throwing to afterthoughts like Dontrelle Inman, Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry for most of the season. Flowers, Johnson and Woodhead are gone but Verrett and Allen are ready to go here. Furthermore, the Chargers look awful deep at several critical positions and if you give Rivers time and some talented playmakers, he instantly becomes one of the NFL’s best. Simply put, the Chargers are too good to keep losing games and getting off to a good start is absolutely on the table here against an inferior opponent. Chargers outright get this call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +101 over TORONTO

Ubaldo Jimenez has been a fade target of ours for a few years now but for whatever reason, he absolutely shines when facing the Blue Jays. Current Toronto batters have hit a mere .216 against Jimenez in 305 combined AB’s (that’s over 100 innings) with a horrible .693 OPS. The Jays continue to make a lot of weak pitchers look good and even had their hands full with the free-falling Tigers this past weekend. The Jays are not in a good place right now and this is not a good matchup for them.

It’s always good to be known for something. Marco Estrada’s known for generating pop-ups and fly-balls, making his high fly-ball rate not seem like much of a problem. That seemed to work for him in his first 11 starts, when he posted a 3.14 ERA but he’s fallen apart since then, with a 6.85 ERA in his last 18 starts. Other than a few more walks and a few more strikeouts, 2017 looks like a carbon copy of 2016 with the only difference being luck. The main difference between 2016 and 2017 is Estrada’s BABIP and strand rate, both of which are luck-driven stats. Those extra runners didn’t come around to score last year but this year they are and that is the absolute only difference between the two seasons, one of which looks great and one of which looks awful. When you bet on or against Marco Estrada, luck, whether it’s good or bad, will play a massive role in the outcome of the game and while Jimenez is in the same boat, Baltimore is in better form than Toronto, they have a superior ‘pen and they’re not the team spotting a tag.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

3G-Sports

Colorado vs. Arizona
Play: Under 9

Kyle Freeland has been one of the best Under pitchers this season, with only seven of his 26 starts going Over the total. However, his last three starts have gone Over, including a 9-5 loss at Coors Field to Arizona on Sept. 1. But he'll pitch well here, and so will Zack Greinke, who has stayed Under in five of his past six starts, winning his last three. All three of his starts against Colorado this season have stayed Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Saints at Vikings
Play: Vikings -3

The season opener for New Orleans and Minnesota takes place in primetime, the first of the league's Week #1 Monday Night Football doubleheader. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

The subplots in tonight's event in Minnesota find the controversial and the 2012 NFL MVP playing with his new teammates against his former ones when Adrian Peterson begins his 2017 season against the Vikings.

One of last year's top ranked defenses (315 yards allowed per game last season), the Vikings, host one of the best offenses in the league (426.0 yards per game last year), the Saints, and tonight's Vegas and Offshore betting board total (48) will likely be the highest of the season for Minnesota. The Vikings schedule does sport a December 3rd affair versus the Falcons in Atlanta that could rival tonight's over/under of 48 points.
The truth of the matter is that as much as Peterson would like to "stick it to the Vikings" he will serve as a ball carrier in a supporting or shared role. Running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara will all receive touches in the Drew Brees pass-happy scheme. The Saints defensive secondary ranked as the league's worst against the pass of a season ago but face anything but a high powered aerial attack led by quarterback Sam Bradford.

The 2016 Vikings were a quick hitting short-yardage passing unit last year. Bradford set an NFL record for completion percentage but not necessarily by the choice of the Vikings coaching staff. They would prefer to be a run-heavy but due to the inability to gain hard fought yards on the ground last season they were forced to be more West Coast oriented. The team will offer Florida State rookie Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray the chance to change their game-plan tonight in the organizations season opener.

While it isn't always wise to put too much stock in the August exhibition results it is noteworthy to mention that the Vikings’ offense struggled during most of preseason. Tonight's test against Sean Payton's soft defense could be just what the doctor ordered to offer the unit confidence in the first game of the season but do so against a Saints team that is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a visitor.

The Saints square off against a team that has covered just two of their last nine home openers but do so with question marks at receiver. New Orleans won't have their top two receivers from last season on the field tonight. Wide out Brandon Cooks is now catching balls from Tom Brady in New England and Willie Snead is serving a league suspension. Typically, Brees' tight end connection with Coby Fleener would play a factor in projecting a selection against the spread by Fleener benefits from the attention given to the Saints usually explosive wide outs and lacks big-play ability. Fleener does most of his damage on seam but won't have an easy time tonight against a stellar Vikings line backing corps.

Wide outs Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn top the Saints depth chart with Thomas being the redzone target and Ginn the receiver that stretches the field for Brees.

Minnesota saw division foes Green Bay and Detroit start the 2017 campaign with Sunday wins and tonight's victory over New Orleans also makes them 1-0 to begin the bright and shiny new campaign.