Monday 9-18-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tony Brown

Tony's *5 mlb free pick

LA Dodgers vs. Philadelphia, 09/18/2017 19:05 EDT

Total: -120/+7½ Over

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Dodgers top of the leauge in runs scored and Philly pitching has been horrible all year .. i expect la to get to there pitchers early and often making the over my mlb free pick.

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Dave Price
Sep 18 '17, 10:10 PM
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Padres +140 at BMaker

Dave's Monday Free Play:

1* on San Diego Padres +140

The Key: The San Diego Padres have actually been a good bet at home this year. They are 39-35 (+10) units at home consistently cashing as dogs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are kind of stuck in no man's land here as they basically have a playoff spot locked up and are 5 games ahead of the Rockies for the 1st wild card spot. Don't expect them to be too hungry these last few weeks. Patrick Corbin is 5-8 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 14 road starts this year for the Diamondbacks. Corbin is 5-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts vs. San Diego. He was rocked for 8 earned runs and 14 base runners in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Padres on September 8th just 10 days ago. Take San Diego.

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Jack Jones
Sep 18 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Twins vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -150 at Bovada

Jack's Free Pick Monday: New York Yankees -150

The New York Yankees are only three games behind the Boston Red Sox for first place in the AL East. The Yankees have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall and are playing great baseball coming into this series with the Minnesota Twins.

Jaime Garcia has come up big down the stretch for the Yankees, going 0-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last three starts. Garcia has faced the Twins once in his career, pitching 6 shutout innings for a 0.00 ERA. I look for him to shut them down here at home Monday night.

Ervin Santana has come back down to reality in the second half of the season after a very lucky first half. And Santana doesn't enjoy facing the Yankees, going 6-9 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.

The Yankees are 60-33 in home night games over the last two seasons. The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. New York is 7-1 in its last eight vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Yankees Monday.

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John Martin
Sep 18 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Red Sox vs Orioles
Play on: Red Sox +112 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Boston Red Sox +112

The Boston Red Sox have a lot more to play for right now than the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox are fighting to win the AL East, while the Orioles have gone 2-9 in their last 11 games to fall out of wild card contention. Doug Fister has been at his best on the road this year, going 2-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in four road starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Red Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Baltimore. Wrong team favored here.

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Info Plays
Sep 18 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | OAK vs DET
Play on: OVER 10 -119

1* Free Play on A's vs Tigers over 10 -119

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Sports Watch Monitor

MLB BALTIMORE ORIOLES ‑105

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Team Underground

MLB OAKLAND ATHLETICS ‑110

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Tommy King Wins

MLB BOSTON RED SOX +112

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Dave Cokin

New York vs. Miami
Play: Miami -1

Miami has fallen way out of contention for the NL Wildcard following a very rough stretch of baseball. So it’s play out the string time for the Mets and Marlins as this divisional series opens tonight.

The keys for me are fading Matt Harvey and the fact that Miami will actually be playing a true home game at last. The Marlins were the “home” team this weekend vs. the Brewers. But due to the Irma issues, the series was played at Milwaukee. Tonight, the Marlins will be the true home team. I think this would be more meaningful for a better supported franchise, but at the very least I have to think it’s a bit of a plus for the hosts.

As for Harvey, I don’t know if he’ll ever get back to the dominant pitcher we saw before a seemingly unending array of injuries reared their ugly head. One thing is crystal clear. Harvey isn’t even a shadow of what he used to be. Maybe these late season innings will help him in terms of prepping for 2018. That remains to be seen. What we know right now is that Harvey simply hasn’t been very effective.

Dan Straily got battered in his most recent start, and it’s not like the veteran righty is in peak form right now. But Straily has been mostly effective at home and he has to rate the edge on paper over Harvey.

The money line price tonight is higher than I generally like to play, so if you’re going to get involved in this one, a better option would seem to be creating a -1 line. That’s achieved by splitting the play between the money line and runs line. Marlins -1 is therefore tonight’s free play.

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Power Sports

New York vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -152

There was a time when the idea of Matt Harvey being a +140 dog to Miami would have seemed blasphemous. But blasphemy obviuously no longer exists in 2017 as that's what we have Monday and the oddsmakers are more than justified. This has been a terrible, injury-plagued season for the Mets, who have been as far down as 21 games below .500 at one point. Harvey has not been good this year and of late, he's been downright wretched (12.20 ERA, 2.420 WHIP L3 starts).

Miami provides the opposition here in a matchup of two NL East foes simply playing out the string. At one point, the Marlins were thinking of themselves as playoff contenders, but September has been a disaster in every sense of the word. They were three games above .500 back on 8.27, but since then have dropped 17 of 20! That definitely doesn't come across as "encouraging," but note that due to Hurricane Irma, this will be their first time playing at home since Sept 6th. The return home should provide a boost to the players.

Like Harvey, Miami starter Dan Straily has not been all that good of late. He was clobbered in his last start, giving up eight runs and 13 hits, to Philadelphia no less. But the difference between Straily and Harvey is that the former has generally been effective most of 2017. Straily has a 3.27 ERA here at home while Harvey's numbers on the road are not good at all (6.18 ERA and 1.855 WHIP). Really those numbers on the road aren't too far off from where he's at overall. His TSR on the road is 2-7 and it's been a long time since he made it past the fifth inning in any start.

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Big Al

Arizona vs. San Diego
Pick: Arizona -158

Just when it was looking like the D-Backs could catch the Dodgers due to a combination of their hot streak combined with L.A.'s meltdown, the Dodgers take two of three from the Nats and Arizona loses their Sunday game to the Giants. As a result, the Dodgers lead in the division is back to 9.5 games and their magic number is now four. But at least the D-Backs get to go from one of the NL West Cellar Dwellers to the other as they begin a three-game series in San Diego against the Padres. And tonight their send one of their hottest starters to the mound as LHP Patrick Corbin will get his 31st start of the season. Corbin is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last seven starts, and he allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings against the Rockies his last time out last Wednesday. With 14 wins on the season, Corbin has tied his previous high that he set in 2013 and one more tonight would make him a 15-game winner for the first time. The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in the last 20 meetings of these two.

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Will Rogers

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +102

The set-up: The Brewers gave up their NL Central lead shortly after the All Star break and having been playing catch-up, ever since. The Brewers have played some of their best baseball of late but it hasn't much helped. Milwaukee has won seven of its last nine contests, including a three-game sweep of first-place Chicago. However, the Cubs are currently on a six-game winning streak, so the Brewers remain four games behind the Cubs and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card. "When you're chasing, you have little margin for error,” Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell told reporters. “The teams ahead of us are doing a good job of winning games, and we know the margin is slim. The Brewers begin a three-game road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday and the only thing the Pirates have to play for is staying out of the cellar in the NL Central (Pittsburgh is only two games ahead of last-place Cincinnati after Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Reds!).

The pitching matchup: Brent Suter (2-2 & 3.66 ERA) starts for Milwaukee and Jameson Taillon (7-6 & 4.78 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Suter is win-less since July 28, going 0-1 with a 6.33 ERA in six games (five starts / team is) since that last victory. He's returning from a rotator cuff injury on Sep. 3 and was limited to 50 pitches over three innings against the Pirates on Tuesday, but he should throw 70-75 this time around. Suter has posted a 2.77 ERA without recording a decision in six games (two starts / team is 1-1) versus Pittsburgh. Taillon knows about going win-less as well, as he's 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA since a triumph at Toronto on Aug. 11 (team is 2-3). The former No. 2 overall draft pick was tagged for six runs and 11 hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sep. 7 before getting some extra rest. Taillon is 1-2 with a 3.76 ERA in five career starts (Pirates are 3-2) against the Brewers, including a win in the only meeting this season.

The pick: Taillon has struggled since the All Star break (7.17 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP) but as manager Clint Hurdle has said, "He continues to fight. He's one guy who's going to sleep real well this winter. He's poured everything he's got into this thing. There's going to be a day when it's going to be good for him to just sit in a chair and go, 'Whew! What did I just go through?" I'm kind of on Hurdle's side here and will back the Pirates, as I'm no fan of Suter.

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Harry Bondi

NY GIANTS (-3) over Detroit

A huge overreaction to Week 1 gets us a ton of line value here tonight. The Giants were pegged as a 6-point favorite when the opening line was posted on this game, but because Detroit won last week and the Giants lost on the road to Dallas, the line fell three points. We’re not buying it. This is still a Detroit team that can’t stand success, has a horrible defense and a QB who has a 5-46 career record against teams that finish the season with a winning record. Detroit is also just 1-14 ATS when it goes on the road the week after scoring 33 points or more. Put it all together and we’ll gladly lay the field goal with the G-Men.

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Buster Sports

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -120

The Baltimore Orioles have very little chance at making the 2017 MLB playoffs but in saying that they still do have a slight chance as they are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff berth. We will go with the Orioles today, as we believe they have a solid advantage in the starting pitcher department. The starting pitchers for today’s game are for the Red Sox RH Doug Fister (5-8, 4.40 ERA) and he will face the Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.03 ERA) Fister has pitched very well for the Red Sox this year but we believe the veteran is due for some regression. In his last start against Oakland, he allowed six runs in four innings and we believe that might be a bad sign for Fister as he pitches down the stretch. As for Bundy, he has pitched really well the last month and a half for the Orioles. In his last three starts, he is sporting a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP of 0.947. When Bundy has faced the Red Sox this year at home in two starts he has allowed only 2 runs in 12 innings pitched. The Orioles are coming home from a 10 game road trip that keeps this from being a premium pick for us. Our numbers had the Orioles at 137 and with laying only 120 at the time of this writing there is some nice value with Baltimore.

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SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +104 over Oakland

Yes indeed folks, the Tigers have bottomed out, just like we predicted in our season win total wager (under) before the season began. The Tigers have cleaned house and the result is a bunch of September call-ups and previous bench players getting some playing time. That’s not a bad thing, as these young players trying to make a name for themselves bring enthusiasm, energy and focus to the park whether it’s April or September. The Tigers whacked the South Side yesterday 12-0 to earn a split of the four game series in which they scored 26 runs over the four games. That’s not bad at all and now the Tigers will get another shot a struggling pitcher here.

Jharel Cotton has a weak BB/K split of 52/99 in 124 frames. That’s a horrible ratio that has led to a horrible 1.48 WHIP this season and an even worse WHIP of 1.57 over his last 10 starts. Cotton also has a 51% first-pitch strike rate over that span. Rarely can a pitcher succeed at this level when he’s constantly behind in the count. Cotton’s underlying numbers are right in line with his actual numbers so there are no pending improvements on the way. He has an ERA/xERA of 5.81/5.83. He has a horrible 22%/32% dominant start/disaster start split and those numbers are even worse when you consider that he pitchers half his games at a hitters park. Pitching for a team that plays poorly on the road most of the time, Jharel Cotton and the A’s cannot be favored on the road against Buck Farmer and the Tigers.

Buck Farmer’s 6.62 ERA has him grossly undervalued here. He’s another great example of why we don’t buy surface stats and he’s also a great example of how surface stats influence the market. While there are no guarantees of anything in one baseball game, we’re here to assure you that Buck Farmer is a quality pitcher that is miles ahead of Jharel Cotton in their progress. Farmer’s poor surface stats are the result of noting but pure bad fortune. In 35 innings, Farmer has struck out 38 batters and walked 13. That’s 9.7 K’s/9. That has the full support of his 13% swing and miss rate. In his last start, Farmer’s groundball rate was 56%. He tallied a 3.26 xERA, 8.3 K’s/9 and a 47% groundball rate in 465 minor league innings (mostly Triple-A) as a starter around numerous brief MLB stints. Since 2013, Farmer has thrown 206.1 minor league innings and posted a 3.05 ERA and a 9.3 K’s/9. Strikeouts and groundball % is the starting point of a very playable skill set and with an xERA of 3.11 in his last start and an overall xERA of 4.19 over 114 MLB innings, Buck Farmer is trending the right way. He and the Tigers should be favored here. That’s value.