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Tuesday 9-19-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Tuesday's comp play release is the Under in the Dodgers-Phillies game.
Their series opened last night with an Under as Los Angeles has now gone 4-1 Under the total in their last 5 games, a streak that started with Yu Darvish getting back on track in holding the Giants to just one run his last time to the mound.
Darvish is facing the Phillies for the first time in his career, so you would think he owns a slight advantage over the hitter who have not seen him before. Plus, Darvish owns a 2.59 ERA this season on the highway.
With last night's Under, Philly has now played Under in each of their last 4 games, and is 5-1-2 Under the posted price in their last 8 games played.
Aaron Nola was rock-solid his last trip to the hill - 7 innings of 1 run ball with 11 strikeouts versus Miami - a game that ended in a push totals-wise. 7 of Nola's 11 home starts this season have ended in the Under column.
Low-scoring game in the City of Brotherly Love tonight.
Dodgers don't have much to play for at that has really shown down the stretch as they have been losing a'lot and tonight is a great chance for the Phillies to grab us a plus money win. Phillies won last night and cashed a huge +300 number wish I had played it but tonight Aaron Nola goes for the Phillies he is 11-10 with a 3.60 ERA he has been very good in the second half of the year. He faces off with Yu Darvish who had a great start last time out against the hapless Giants but overall he has been mediocre with the Dodgers. We will invest a 9 unit investment in the Phillies tonight. (Be sure to check out my NFL investors season pass just 449.99 for the next few days don't miss out also grab the bonus code today and get 10-15% off that price)
The Twins are the best money-making road underdog in baseball. That's where we find them today taking a hefty mid-range plus price.
The pitching matchup is Jose Berrios versus lefty CC Sabathia. Berrios has the lower ERA and is just beginning what promises to be a very good career. Depending on how you feel about Ervin Santana, Berrios is either the No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher on Minnesota. Berrios has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 23 starts this season. In more than one-third of his starts, Berrios has held opponents to one earned run or fewer.
While Berriors is just entering his prime years, Sabathia is in the twillight of his career. Sabathia, who has chronic sore knees, was pushed back two days so he wouldn't have to pitch off the artificial turf in Toronto. So he is pitching on seven days rest here. Sabathia has a lifetime ERA of 4.17 when pitching with six or more days rest. He's done that seven times this year with an ERA of 4.72 in those outings.
The Twins are six games above .500 on the road and also have a winning mark versus lefties.
Fp: nats one of the top scoring teams in the mlb this season and i expect them to get to braves pitching early and often making the over my mlb free pick.
Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Darvish) 13.146
Philadelphia
(Nola) 15.517
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-160
8 Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+140); Under
Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Lugo) 12.127
Miami
(Despaigne) 14.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A
St. Louis @ Cincinnati
Game 907-908
September 19, 2017 @ 7:10 pm
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 17.016
Cincinnati
(Stephens) 13.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-120
9 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+100); Over
Washington @ Atlanta
Game 909-910
September 19, 2017 @ 7:35 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Scherzer) 14.642
Atlanta
(Gohara) 13.088
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-230
8 Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-230); Over
Arizona @ San Diego
Game 911-912
September 19, 2017 @ 10:10 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Godley) 12.307
San Diego
(Wood) 15.136
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-185
8 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+165); Over
Colorado @ San Francisco
Game 913-914
September 19, 2017 @ 10:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Marquez) 15.000
San Francisco
(Cueto) 13.626
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-110
8 Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-110); Under
Minnesota @ NY Yankees
Game 915-916
September 19, 2017 @ 7:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Berrios) 14.179
NY Yankees
(Sabathia) 17.666
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-150
8 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-150); Under
Boston @ Baltimore
Game 917-918
September 19, 2017 @ 7:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Pmeranz) 17.091
Baltimore
(Gausman) 15.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-110
8 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-110); Over
Kansas City @ Toronto
Game 919-920
September 19, 2017 @ 7:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Gaviglio) 14.057
Toronto
(Stroman) 17.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
No Line
N/A Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
N/A
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Mntgmry) 16.587
Tampa Bay
(Archer) 15.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-115
8 Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-105); Under
National League
Dodgers @ Phillies
Darvish is 1-3, 6.05 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Dodgers are 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1
Nola is 2-3, 6.37 in his last six starts (over 4-2). Phillies are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-7
Dodgers won four of their last six games (under 5-0-1). Phillies won five of last seven games, last four of which stayed under.
Brewers @ Pirates
Anderson is 3-0, 3.74 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). Milwaukee is 6-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-2
Williams is 1-4, 4.81 in his last six starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Pirates are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3
Brewers won eight of last ten games; four of their last five games went over. Pittsburgh lost its last ten games, scoring nine runs (under 9-1).
Mets @ Marlins
Lugo is 1-3, 7.22 in his last seven starts; over is 10-3-1 in his last 14 starts. Mets are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-3
Despaigne is 0-3, 6.40 in five starts this season (under 3-2). Miami is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-2
Mets lost six of their last eight games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Miami is 4-17 in its last 21 games, last nine of which all went over.
Cardinals @ Reds
Flaherty is 0-1, 6.08 in three starts this year (under 2-1). St Louis won both his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3
Stephens beat the Cubs 5-3 in his only start July 1, allowing three runs in five IP (91 PT). Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Cardinals lost four of last five games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. St Louis is 9-6 in its last 15 road series openers. Reds won four of last five games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games. Cincinnati is 6-1 in its last seven home series openers.
Nationals @ Braves
Scherzer is 1-1, 6.35 in his last three starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Washington is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-7-4
Goraga is 1-1, 7.20 in two starts (over 2-0). Braves lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1
Nationals lost four of last six games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight. Washington is 16-7 in road series openers. Atlanta lost three of last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games. Braves are 7-10 in last 17 home series openers.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Godley is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts; under is 8-4-2 in his last 14 starts. Arizona is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4
Wood is 0-2, 12.51 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. San Diego is 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1
Arizona is 5-5 in its last ten games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. San Diego lost five of its last six games (under 4-2).
Rockies @ Giants
Marquez 0-2, 7.90 in his last three starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11 starts. Colorado is 7-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-4
Cueto is 1-1, 6.00 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Giants are 4-6 in his home starts, losing last five— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-4
Colorado is 9-4 in its last 13 games; under is 4-2 in its last six games. Rockies are 5-11 in their last 16 road series openers. Giants lost six of their last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. SF is 4-14 in last 18 home series openers.
——————————–
American League
Red Sox @ Orioles
Pomeranz is 4-1, 3.14 in his last five starts; over is 11-7-1 in his last 19 starts. Boston is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-1
Gausman is 2.28 in his last four starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-15-1
Red Sox are 9-3 in last 12 games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Baltimore lost 10 of last 12 games; over is 4-1 in their last five.
Minnesota @ New York
Berrios is 1-2, 3.90 in his last five starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11. Twins lost his last nine road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-3
Sabathia is 2-0, 3.14 in his last five starts; under is 14-4 in his last 18 starts. New York is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-1
Twins lost three of last four games; under is 5-1 in their last six. New York won five of its last six games; over is 3-2 in their last five.
Royals @ Blue Jays
Gaviglio is 1-0, 2.70 in two starts for the Royals (under 2-0). This is his first road start for the Royals. KC’s first 5-inning record with him: 2-0
Stroman is 0-2, 4.68 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Toronto is 8-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-13-1
Royals lost four of last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six. KC is 11-13 in road series openers. Toronto won six of last nine games (under 7-2). Blue Jays are 10-14 in home series openers.
A’s @ Tigers
Gossett is 1-3, 4.15 in his last four starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Oakland is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-9-1
Bell is 0-2, 9.75 in three starts this year (over 3-0). Detroit is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1
A’s are 9-3 in their last 12 games; under is 3-2 in their last five. Detroit is 2-8 in its last ten games; over is 8-1 in their last nine home games.
White Sox @ Astros
Giolito is 2-2, 3.13 in five starts this year (under 4-1). Chicago won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2
McHugh is 3-0, 2.29 in his last four starts (under 7-2). Houston is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3-1
White Sox won six of last nine games; over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. Chicago is 8-16 in road series openers. Houston won its last four games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Astros are 6-1 in last seven home series openers.
Indians @ Angels
Clevinger is 5-0, 1.80 in his last six starts; under is 11-3 in his last 14 starts. Indians are 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-3
Skaggs is 1-1, 6.30 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Angels are 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-2
Cleveland is 24-1 in its last 25 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Indians are 8-2 in last ten road series openers. Angels are 3-7 in last ten games (under 8-2). Halos are 4-8 in last 12 home series openers.
Rangers @ Mariners
Perez is 7-1, 3.88 in his last eight starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Texas is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-13-3
Leake is 3-0, 2.89 in three starts for Seattle (under 3-0). Mariners are 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-0
Rangers lost seven of last nine games; over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games. Texas is 10-13 in road series openers. Seattle lost its last three games; under is 10-3 in their last 13. Mariners are 3-8 in last 11 home series openers.
__________________________
Interleague
Cubs @ Rays
Montgomery is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1
Archer is 0-3, 15.26 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Rays are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-9-5
Joe Maddon returns to St Pete with his world champ Cubs, who won their last six games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Chicago is 9-4 in last 13 road series openers. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in its last 10 games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Rays are 9-14 in home series openers.
______________________________
Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
LA-Phil: Darvish 4-3; Nola 12-13
Mil-Pitt: Anderson 12-10; Williams 10-13
NY-Mia: Lugo 8-7; Despaigne 1-4
StL-Cin: Flaherty 2-1; Stephens 1-0
Wsh-Atl: Scherzer 19-9; Goraga 1-1
Az-SD: Godley 14-9; Wood 4-5
Col-SF: Marquez 16-10; Cueto 11-11
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
LA-Phil: Darvish 4-7; Nola 6-25
Mil-Pitt: Anderson 7-22; Williams 7-23
NY-Mia: Lugo 4-15; Despaigne 1-5
StL-Cin: Flaherty 1-3; Stephens 0-1
Wsh-Atl: Scherzer 7-28; Goraga 2-2
Az-SD: Godley 4-23; Wood 4-9
Col-SF: Marquez 7-26; Cueto 6-22
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-67-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-62-7
Total: Over 144-129-11
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/15/17
Ariz 28-26-20……42-22–12……..70-48
Atl 27-35-10……26-39-8………..53-74
Cubs 32-31-8…….37-25-14………..69-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-36–7……….53-79
Colo 38-30-7…….38-29-5………..76-59
LA 34-24-13…….41-25-9……….75-49
Miami 31-35-10…….35-26-10………66-61
Milw 35-27-10…….37-28-10……….71-55
Mets 31-38-4……..30-37-7………….61-75
Philly 19-43-16……29-34-8………..48-77
Pitt 31-37-7…….28-31-13………..60-68
St. Louis 31-32-9……..39-25-10………..70-57
SD 21-44-8……..36-29–9…………57-73
SF 16-49-9……..28-32-13……….44-80
Wash 42-23-7……34-31-10………….76-54
Orioles 28-38-5……..30-39-7………58-77
Boston 30-33-10………34-37-3…….64-70
White Sox 24-38-11………29-42–4…….53-80
Cleveland 44-23-8……..37-24-10……….81-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….28-34-11……..55-72
Astros 37-28-11……..44-24-5………81-52
KC 26-33-12……..30-31-13…….56-64
Angels 26-39-8………30-29-14……..56-68
Twins 38-23-12………37-32-8……..74-54
NYY 34-38-7……….38-27-4…..…72-65
A’s 28-37-9……..32-32-12……..60-69
Seattle 29-37-9……..39-25-10………68-62
TB 36-29-11……..39-22-9……..75-51
Texas 34-26-12……..38-28-8……..72-54
Toronto 29-39-5……..30-33-11……..59-72
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/15/17)
Ariz 22-72……..27-74………..49
Atl 17-71……….19-76………36
Cubs 20-71……..26-76………..46
Reds 30-76……..26-73……….56
Colo 20-75……..25-72..……..45
LA 22-72……..26-74..…….48
Miami 31-76……..26-71………..57
Milw 24-72……28-76…..……52
Mets 33-73……..25-74……….58
Philly 17-78……..23-70……….40
Pitt 22-75……..22-73……….44
StL 16-73……..23-73………..39
SD 23-73……….24-73……….47
SF 17-75……….22-74……….39
Wash 26-72……..30-75……….56
Orioles 17-74……..24-75……….41
Boston 21-73……..18-74……….39
White Sox 23-73……20-75……….43
Clev 22-76……..26-73………48
Detroit 18-74…….26-73………44
Astros 21-77……..29-71………50
KC 18-72……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..21-74……….48
Twins 17-71……..19-75……….36
NYY 19-78……..20-69………39
A’s 19-72……..27-76………46
Seattle 21-75…….25-76……….46
TB 22-74……..25-74………47
Texas 28-73……..30-74………58
Toronto 24-74……..21-77………45
7:05 PM BOSTON vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Boston's last 23 games when playing Baltimore
Boston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
7:05 PM MILWAUKEE vs. PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
7:05 PM LA DODGERS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Dodgers's last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
7:05 PM MINNESOTA vs. NY YANKEES
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
7:07 PM KANSAS CITY vs. TORONTO
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
7:10 PM CHI CUBS vs. TAMPA BAY
Chi Cubs are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
7:10 PM ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against St. Louis
7:10 PM NY METS vs. MIAMI
NY Mets are 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
7:10 PM OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Oakland
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
7:35 PM WASHINGTON vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Atlanta is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
8:10 PM CHI WHITE SOX vs. HOUSTON
Chi White Sox are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
10:08 PM CLEVELAND vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games
LA Angels are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
10:10 PM TEXAS vs. SEATTLE
Texas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
Texas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games at home
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Texas
10:10 PM ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
Arizona is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
Arizona is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Arizona
10:15 PM COLORADO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
A pair of A.L. East rivals get set to duke it out in game 2 of a very important series. Red Sox on the road against the Orioles after recording a 10-8 win in 11 innings in the opening game of the series Monday night.
A Boston win in this game could turn out to be the final blow for the Orioles, and their ever-fading chances of a wild-card berth.
A look inside the numbers shows that the Red Sox are "road warriors" when they play bad teams, 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
They also seem to play nearly flawless baseball on Tuesday nights, as the Red Sox are 24-5 in their last 29 Tuesday games.
Baltimore, on the other hand, can't get it together against winning teams, 1-7 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. They also can't play on the grass, 1-7 in their last 8 games on grass To make matters worse, these Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Bottom line, its "goodnight" Orioles, so bet Boston!
My free winner last night was a baseball total, as I nailed the New York Mets and Miami Marlins to sail past the easy number. I told you it would get to double digits, and it hit 14. Tonight my money is on the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays going Over the posted number.
IMPORTANT: As you know every single Run Line play and Total wager will automatically list the scheduled starting pitchers at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the registered starters on your ticket when making your wager: Mike Montgomery and Chris Archer. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.
I don't know about Montgomery, who returns to the rotation to open this series tonight. The left-hander is 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 12 starts, and was relegated to the bullpen as backup over the weekend against the Cardinals. I'm just not a fan of his mechanics, and how he handles himself under pressure. If he gets rattled, he gets rocked.
Meanwhile, with one of my favorite pitchers in the league, Archer is in after taking the loss on Wednesday against the New York Yankees, as he allowed three runs in four innings. He did beat he Cubs at Wrigley Field back on July 4, when he allowed three runs in six innings. But the problem is Archer is 2-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 post-All-Star break starts.
These two starters will get tagged enough to see this total over before the bullpen comes into play.
It's a high price to pay here, but Max Scherzer was actually beaten by the Braves in his last outing, giving up seven runs in the process. He'll again be opposed by Luiz Gohara, making this an "immediate revenge" situation and I don't see lightning striking twice. It was - rather easily - the worst start of the year for Scherzer, who continues to pace the National League in strikeouts (246) and WHIP (0.92) while ranking 2nd in ERA (2.59). Bottom line is that I expect him to dominate the Braves this go around.
For six innings, Scherzer looked like his normal self last Wednesday. He'd allowed just two runs and had 7 K's. Then the wheels came off, seemingly right as his pitch count hit 100. Note, however, that while Scherzer was charged w/ five more runs, it was not he that gave up a grand slam to the Braves' Matt Kemp. (It was reliever Brandon Kitzler). But I won't let one bad inning cloud my view of Scherzer, who remains one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball. He's surprisingly struggled some against Atlanta this season, but was 4-0 against them in '16. Furthermore, he has a 1.79 ERA and 0.816 WHIP on the road this year (8-2 in 14 starts).
Gohara, a rookie, will be making just his third big league start here. Pitching in Washington last week certainly went a lot better than his debut when he allowed six runs (in four innings) here at home to Texas (an AL lineup sans DH). Despite his success last time out, Gohara will be facing a lineup that ranks fourth in all of baseball in runs scored, third in batting average and second in slugging. The Nats had won five straight Scherzer starts prior to last Weds, so the odds of a bounce back this time around are quite high. I wouldn't be scared off due to price here.
Short and sweet freebie: I like the Houston Astros to demoralize the Chicago White Sox tonight, and will be playing the home team on the Run Line.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
The motivation is simple: with the American League West title locked up, it's time to wrap up the best record on the junior circuit.
With 13 games left in the season, the Astros are just 1 1/2 games behind the recently streaking Cleveland Indians for the best record in the AL and home-field advantage in the postseason. The Astros need to beat the Indians with records, since Cleveland owns the tiebreaker with a season series mark of 5-1.
Houston will roll tonight, against the sad South Siders.
Brandon Lee
Sep 19 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | LAD vs PHI
Play on: UNDER 8 -123
10* FREE MLB PICK (Dodgers/Phillies UNDER 8)
I think the combination of quality starters going and ideal pitching conditions make the UNDER a strong play in Tuesday's game between the Dodgers and Phillies. The wind is expected to be blowing in from straight center at Citizens Bank Park between 15 and 20 mph. That's going to make it tough to score for two teams that like to swing for the fences. Dodgers will send out You Darvish, who has had his ups and downs in LA, but is coming off a great outing, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings at San Francisco. Phillies will send out Aaron Nola, who has been sharp at home, going 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.029 WHIP in 12 starts. Nola is also catching the Dodgers at the right time, as LA has scored 3 or less runs in 3 straight games and are hitting just .209 as a team over their last 7. Give me the UNDER 8!
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