Tuesday 9-19-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jimmy Boyd
Sep 19 '17, 7:10 PM
MLB | Cubs vs Rays
Play on: Rays -116 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on Rays -

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a short home favorite against the Cubs. This line is just begging for you to take Chicago with the Cubs coming in having won 6 straight, but all 6 of those wins came at home.

The biggest key here is the pitching matchup and I feel it heavily favors the home team. Tampa send outs their ace Chris Archer, who has a solid 3.54 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 15 home starts. Archer also pitched well against the Cubs earlier this season in Chicago, allowing just 3 runs in 6 innings. Cubs will counter with left Mike Montgomery, who has a not so great 5.14 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

There's also a strong system in play backing a fade of the Cubs. NL road underdogs who are a good offensive team (4.5+ runs/game) are just 35-79 in the month of September over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!

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Insider Sports Report

MLB Brewers -120

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Elite Sports Picks

MLB Cleveland -105

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Top Rank Sports Picks

MLB Boston +105

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Doc's Picks

MLB Giants over 7.5

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Profit On Sports

MLB Oakland -125

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Primetime Sports Picks

MLB Astros under 9

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The Sports Consensus

MLB Cleveland -105

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National Sports Service

MLB Giants +105

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Jefferson Sports

Padres

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Tuesday HP Umpire Assignments

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Umps listed with their 2017 and 2016 records for home-team win-loss and o/u in bold, then additional ump trends in italics.

Lines from 5dimes

901 Los Angeles Dodgers -158 Over 7½ -110
902 Philadelphia Phillies +148 Under 7½ -110
Paul Emmel 2017: 14-12, 12-12 o/u (2016: 16-13, 14-13 o/u)
Under is 7-3 in Emmels last 10 games behind home plate.
Under is 5-1 in Emmels last 6 Dodgers games behind home plate.
Under is 19-7-1 in Emmels last 27 Phillies games behind home plate.
Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Emmel behind home plate.
Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Emmel behind home plate.

903 Milwaukee Brewers -125 Over 8½ +105
904 Pittsburgh Pirates +115 Under 8½ -125
Tony Randazzo 2017: 13-6, 10-7 o/u (2016: 11-20, 13-16 o/u)
Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Randazzo behind home plate.

915 Minnesota Twins +147 Over 8½ -110
916 New York Yankees -157 Under 8½ -110
Gabe Morales 2017: 12-16, 12-15 o/u (2016: 15-14, 11-16 o/u)
Road team is 10-1 in Morales' last 11 games behind home plate.
Yankees are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Morales behind home plate.

917 Boston Red Sox +104 Over 8½ -110
918 Baltimore Orioles -114 Under 8½ -110
Mike Muchlinski 2017: 11-16, 16-11 o/u (2016: 17-12, 14-15 o/u)
Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games with Muchlinski behind home plate.

919 Kansas City Royals
920 Toronto Blue Jays
Umpire information not available.

905 New York Mets
906 Miami Marlins
Stu Scheurwater 2017: 15-18, 15-17 o/u (2016: 6-6, 8-4 o/u)
Home team is 4-1 in Scheurwaters last 5 games behind home plate.

907 St. Louis Cardinals -112 Over 9½ -120
908 Cincinnati Reds +102 Under 9½ +100
Umpire information not available.

921 Oakland Athletics -124 Over 10½ -110
922 Detroit Tigers +114 Under 10½ -110
Ryan Blakney 2017: 11-16, 7-17 o/u (2016: 15-22, 15-21 o/u)
Under is 35-16-4 in Blakneys last 55 games behind home plate.
Under is 2-0-2 in Blakneys last 4 Tigers games behind home plate.

929 Chicago Cubs +106 Over 8 -105
930 Tampa Bay Rays -116 Under 8 -115
Umpire information not available.

909 Washington Nationals -210 Over 8 -115
910 Atlanta Braves +190 Under 8 -105
Umpire information not available.

923 Chicago White Sox +205 Over 9 -125
924 Houston Astros -225 Under 9 +105
Umpire information not available.

925 Cleveland Indians +102 Over 8 -110
926 Los Angeles Angels -112 Under 8 -110
Umpire information not available.

911 Arizona Diamondbacks -173 Over 8½ +100
912 San Diego Padres +163 Under 8½ -120
Ramon De Jesus 2017: 11-5, 8-6 o/u (2016: 12-13, 12-12 o/u)
Over is 4-0 in De Jesus' last 4 games behind home plate.
Home team is 6-1 in De Jesus' last 7 games behind home plate.

927 Texas Rangers +135 Over 9½ +105
928 Seattle Mariners -145 Under 9½ -125
Umpire information not available.

913 Colorado Rockies -112 Over 8 +100
914 San Francisco Giants +102 Under 8 -120
Umpire information not available.

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MLB Daily Line Drive: Tuesday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Double-Play Picks

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-160, 8.5)

The Yankees and Twins continue their three-game set in the Bronx in what could be a preview of the American League Wildcard game after New York edged Minnesota 2-1 in the opener on Monday night. In Game 2 it’s old vs. new as veteran workhorse CC Sabathia gets the call for the Yankees, while Jose Berrios takes the ball for the Twins.

At 83-67 the Yankees currently hold the top spot in the AL Wildcard chase, but they are in a different class than all the other Wildcard contenders with a run differential of +175. The next closest team is the Rangers at +18.

New York also still has an outside shot at the AL East as well, sitting just three games behind the Red Sox. They hand the ball to Sabathia in hopes of inching closer to Boston and to stay hot at home. New York has won six of its last seven at Yankee Stadium outscoring opponents by 4.3 runs per game in that stretch.

It’s been a solid year for Sabathia, who has figured out how to pitch as an old guy. The veteran southpaw is 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Plus, in his last two starts at home he allowed just two earned runs, while scattering nine hits over 13 innings.

Meanwhile, it been a rough run of road starts for the Twins’ young Berrios. Minnesota has lost his last nine starts away from Target Field. In those nine starts he is 0-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP while giving up eight home runs. The Yankees have hit the second most home runs at home in baseball this season.

Pick: Yankees -160

Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (-115, 8.5)

The Indians and Angels open a three-game series in Anaheim on Tuesday night with the Tribe still riding one of the greatest runs of success in recent baseball history.

Fresh off their historic 22-game winning streak (the longest in history because ties don't extend winning streaks), Cleveland continues to tally in the win column and has now won 24 of their last 25 games overall.

The Indians will run right-hander Mike Clevinger out to the mound tonight, and he has sneakily been the hottest starting pitch in baseball over the last month. Cleveland has won his last five starts, and in his last four outings he has only allowed one run (0.38 ERA) and owns a WHIP of 1.014. Clevinger has also been better on the road than at home this season with a 6-3 win/loss record to go along with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

Angels' lefty Tyler Skaggs is coming off his best outing of the season - seven innings of three-hit shutout pitching against the Astros - but he's been just average all season with a team win/loss of 6-7, an ERA of 4.37, and a WHIP of 1.34. His ERA at home this season is even higher than his overall number at 4.86.

In two career starts against the Indians, Skaggs owns an ERA of 7.50 and a WHIP of 1.333.

Knowing how good Clevinger has been pitching, it shocked us a little bit that the Indians were slight underdogs for tonight's game. You give us an underdog moneyline on a team that has won 24 of their last 25 games and we'll take it every time.

Pick: Indians -105

Yesterday's Picks: 2-0 (thank you Matt Harvey)
Season To Date: 147-137-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (2-2, 2.56 ERA, $157)

It's been a while since we've had a member of the White Sox's starting rotation appear in the Streaking section of this daily article - Derek Holland may have made an appearance early in the season.

Lucas Giolito's appearance today may be slightly by default since we used Mike Clevinger in the picks section above, but he has been very good. Over his last four appearances he has a team win/loss of 3-1, an ERA of 1.75, and a WHIP of 0.935. If the young righty can get the walks under control he could have the type of stuff to anchor this rotation for many years to come.

Giolito and the Sox are big road underdogs at +200 tonight against Collin McHugh and the Astros.

Slumping: Chad Bell, Detroit Tigers (0-3, 6.42 ERA, $-316)

Left-hander Chad Bell has worked out of the bullpen for most of the season for Detroit, and we're thinking the Tigers should have continued to hide him in a low-leverage relief role.

In three starts since moving into the rotation Bell owns a team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 9.75, a WHIP of 2.333, and an opponent's on base percentage of .468. Yuck.

Bell and the Tigers are slight home dogs tonight against Daniel Gossett and the visting A's.

Tuesday's Top Trends

* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-11 in their last 12 vs. National League Central. +115 today vs. Brewers.
* The Minnesota Twins are 0-9 in Berrios' last nine road starts. +140 today @ Yankees.
* The Oakland Athletics are 12-50 in their last 62 road games vs. a left-handed starter. -123 today @ Tigers (C. Bell).
* The Cleveland Indians have won 24 of their last 25 games overall. -105 today @ Angels.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of thunderstorms in the area around Great American Ball Park this evening where the Reds are scheduled to host the Cardinals.

There is a very stiff wind blowing straight in from center field (17-18 miles per hour) in the forecast tonight at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Philles will take on the Dodgers. The total is currently set at 8.

There will also be an 18-20 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field tonight at Yankee Stadium where the Yanks will host the Twins in a potential American League Wildcard preview. The total is currently 8.5.

Ump Of The Day

Ryan Blakney will be calling balls and strikes this evening in Detroit for the game between the Tigers and the visiting A's. Blakney is baseball's No. 2 Under umpire this season at 17-7 (70.8 percent) and the Under is 35-16-4 (68.6 percent) in his last 55 games behind home plate dating back to last season.

The total for today's game between the Tigers and the A's is set at 10.5.

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Team Underground

MLB HOUSTON ASTROS ‑215

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Line Mover Sports

MLB BOSTON RED SOX ‑105

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Shadow Sports Syndicate

MLB ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/SAN DIEGO PADRES ‑175