Tuesday 9-26-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monster Sports Picks

MLB MIAMI MARLINS +1.5 ‑125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Team Underground

MLB ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ‑110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mr Profits Picks

MLB CLEVELAND INDIANS ‑190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Shelf Sports Pick

MLB KANSAS CITY ROYALS ‑170

[New York Knight]

Reds have lost 6 straight & 5 of last 6 at Miller Park.

Brewers 7-1 in Davies' last 8 home starts vs teams below .500.


CIN +150 / MIL -160

[New York Knight]

Indians are 29-2 in their last 31 games overall.

Twins have lost Colon's last 5 road starts vs teams above .500.


MIN +175 / CLE -190

[New York Knight]

Under is 14-2 in Trevor Williams' last 16 starts overall & 5-1 in Kevin Gausman's last 6 road starts.


BAL / PIT Total: 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +152 over N.Y. YANKEES

If the Yanks win here and clinch home field for the Wild Card game, we’ll be the first to congratulate them. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, this game has to be considered one of the best value plays of the year so far. The number here is hugely inflated because the Yanks are on the verge of clinching home-field for the Wild Card game while the Rays are out of it. Secondly, the Yanks are at home and lastly, they are the New York Yankees. Win or lose, the price on the Rays here is bordering on lunacy.

Idle since beating the Orioles with six shutout innings on Sept. 16, which ending a rough 0-2 stretch with a 5.40 ERA over seven games, Jordan Montgomery gets the call here for New York. Montgomery is definitely a work in progress. His 13% swing and miss rate over his first 15 starts was strong as well, but his minor league K-rates were lower and it has dropped to 9% over his last three. Once could conclude that MLB hitters have studied him now. His fly-ball rate is extreme, and his hr/f shows we have not yet seen the extent of the damage it could do to his ERA. Jordan Montgomery is not only a big risk at this price, he’s the second best starter in this game. Incidentally, he faced the Rays in his April 12 debut and is 0-1 with a 7.32 in two games against them this season.

Blake Snell is coming off a strong outing vs. the Cubs in which he threw seven scoreless innings and surrendered two hits. Snell is unbeaten over his last 10 starts since July 24 and he’s 2-1 versus the Yanks with a 2.73 in seven starts (over his career) allowing one or no earned runs four times. Snell is salvaging his season late in the year. After a rough first half (4.85 ERA, 1.63 WHIP), Snell has turned things around completely post-All-Star break with a 1.01 WHIP, 3.21/3.79 ERA/xERA split and a 13% swing and miss rate. Snell is in great form and is very worth getting behind at this crazy price.

OAKLAND +112 over Seattle

James Paxton missed more than a month with a pectoral strain and has thrown a disaster in both of his starts since returning. In those starts, he has only thrown 50 and 73 pitches respectively. With the Mariners essentially done for the year, there is no reason to push Paxton hard. We strongly suspect that he’ll be on a limited pitch count again. Furthermore, the opposing Athletics have been hot with their bats, averaging 5.7 runs per game in September where they have a .832 OPS.

Daniel Mengden has spent most of the season in the minors, where he has been shaky at best because of control problems. What’s so interesting about that is that he’s walked just two batters over his last 22 innings at this level, covering his last three starts. Over that span, Mengden has struck out 15 and has pitched to a 3.68 xERA to go along with a nifty 0.82 WHIP. Perhaps after spending most of last year up here, being back in the minors brought him way down. He went 2-9 with the A’s last year with an ERA over 6 but he was a strike-thrower with a plus change-up that zipped through the high minors (1.46 ERA, 4 HR allowed, 95/29 K/BB in 98 IP). Mengden found rougher sledding in his MLB debut but this year we’re seeing an opposite effect. Since being back up, Mendgen has posted some nice peripherals that include an 11% swing and miss rate and a good fastball (94 MPH) with life. We’ll roll the dice here with Mengden because the A’s have been so tough at home and Paxton figures to go five or less.

Miami -1½ +250 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


Biggest MLB Liabilities to the book tonight as of now are in order:

Yankees
Cubs
A's
Royals
Indians

[New York Knight]

Cubs can clinch NL Central tonight with a win or a Brewers loss

Would be 1st time since 1906-08 that Cubs made postseason 3 straight years.