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Hawkeye Sports
Wednesday's Free Pick: Minnesota Twins + 155
Wednesday's Free Pick: Minnesota Twins + 155
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Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 9/27 MLB SEATTLE +108Comment
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: MLB the Detroit Tigers w/Zimmermann +165 over Kansas CityComment
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Free Selection from Kenny Towers
Un 9 Was/Phi - MLB -Comment
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Joey Juice
It's the Marlins Rockies from Coors Field in Colorado in game three of a three-game series. On the mound for the Marlins is Adam Conley (7-7, 5.24 ERA), and for the Rockies it will be Jon Gray (9-4, 3.62 ERA).
Everybody sees the marquee and figures this game is going to go way over the total.
Not this time.
When we look at the numbers they tell a different story.
First of all, out of the last 16 times these teams played, the game is gone under the total 12 of those times. Add to that the fact that Colorado has gone under in seven of their last eight games versus a team with a losing record, and you can see why the under looks so appealing.
John Gray really pitches well at home holding his opponents to under three earned runs a game. And even though Colorado is the best hitting park in the country, the Rockies themselves have been somewhat of a hitting slump as of late.
The play is under.
2* MIAMI-COLORADO UNDERComment
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Chris Jordan
This is the week we see those playoff hopefuls really distance themselves from the pack. Tonight's National League Central clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds is a prime example.
That's why my free play is on the Brewers on the Run Line, as they're going to blast Cincinnati.
MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by re-wagering the game if that takes place.
That said, the main reason here is not just the playoff motivation, but there is revenge to consider. The Reds shocked Milwaukee earlier this month, when they swept a three-game series in Cincinnati by a combined score of 21-8.
Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell downplayed the revenge factor, but the players don't forget that sort of thing. They'll want this series for both reasons.
Coming into this series, Reds had won four of their past six meetings with the Brewers. But after last night's win, Milwaukee leads the season series 10-7. And it is must-win time for the Brewers.
2* BREWERS RUN LINEComment
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Eric Schroeder
My free play is on the Kansas City Royals, as they owe me after last night. They contine their final homestand, hosting the Detroit Tigers, and I think we're looking at a blowout win.
Though the Royals don't have a magic number. but instead face a tragic number, they're looking to end the season with some pride after a 4-7 skid on their final road trip of the season. They won last night, barely, and now look to win big.
The Royals have a laundry list of free agents for the offseason, some from the World Series team, and they'll want to show out for the fans who will be there to see them this week.
The Tigers, meanwhile, have lost eight straight and come into this one mired in a 4-21 skid this month. And since one of those victories was a 13-2 rout of the Royals, I think Kansas City will be looking for a bit of revenge in this series.
Take the Royals on the Run Line tonight, as they continue this series with a blowout.
IMPORTANT: As you know every single Run Line play and Total wager will automatically list the scheduled starting pitchers at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who is pitching for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by betting the game over again in the event that takes place.
5* ROYALS RUN LINEComment
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Teddy Davis
Sep 27 '17, 3:35 PM
MLB | Mariners vs A's
Play on: A's -114 at betonline
The A's have dropped the first two games in this series but prior to that they had won 7 straight games. I think they will respond here with Graveman going to the mound.
He has been rock solid at home with a 5-0 record and 2.79 ERA. He enter the game tonight in better form than that with a 1.20 ERA his last 3 starts.
The Mariners will send out Ramirez who is just 1-5 on the road with a 7.50 ERA in 9 starts. In 9 career starts against the A's he is 0-6 lifetime.Comment
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Brandon Lee
Sep 27 '17, 7:05 PM
MLB | Rays vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -1½ -135 at GTBets
10* FREE MLB PICK (Yankees -1.5, -135)
I like the value here with New York on the run line Wednesday. The Yankees are playing with house money right now, as they know worst case they get to host the Wild Card game. However, they are still within striking distance of Boston for the AL East title. I look for them to come out relaxed and play extremely well to close out the season, as long as they still have a shot at catching the Red Sox. Love this spot here with New York, as this will be the Rays first game since being officially eliminated from the playoffs. I just don't see Tampa being motivated at all here and on top of that the pitching matchup here is heavily in favor of New York with Luis Severino going up against Matt Andriese. Severino is 13-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 30 starts, while Andriese is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA in 7 road starts and has a 8.25 ERA in his last 3 outings. Give me the Yankees -1.5 (-135)!Comment
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The Last Call
Wednesday's Free Play: LA Dodgers - 200Comment
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Jimmy Boyd
Sep 27 '17, 8:10 PM
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Reds +150 at 5Dimes
Free Pick on Reds +
Most are just going to jump on Milwaukee, because they are the only team in this matchup with something to play for, but I like the value here with Cincinnati in the spoiler role. The Reds nearly won yesterday in a 6-7 defeat. I know Homer Bailey hasn't been great, but neither has Milwaukee starter Brandon Woodruff. He's got a 5.16 ERA in 4 home starts, all of which the Brewers have lost. He's also got an ugly 6.88 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
Brewers also have had a history of not coming out on top against a bad starter. Milwaukee is just 6-18 against the money line in their last 24 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Reds have also gone 5-2 in Bailey's last 7 road starts against the Brewers. Take Cincinnati!Comment
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Mike Williams
Sep 27 '17, 2:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Astros vs Rangers
Play on: Astros -1½ -135 at Bovada
1* on Astros -1½ -135Comment
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Jack Brayman
Now about this complimentary winner
My free winner is on the Los Angeles Dodgers, on the Run Line, against the San Diego Padres.
I know there is a chance the Dodgers will be hungover after clinching the National League last night, but I also know they can't afford to accept losing like they did recently.
The Dodgers bats have to stay alive, with the playoffs beginning next week, especially with a potential matchup against the Diamondbacks looming.
Los Angeles will blast the Padres.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
1* DODGERS RUN LINEComment
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TOP SU TREND:
-- The Dodgers are 11-0 since Jun 25, 2017 after they had more than ten team-left-on-base last game.
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TOP OU TREND:
-- The Yankees are 10-0-1 OU (3.73 ppg) since Apr 12, 2017 at home past the first game of a series after they won by 5+ runs last game.
TOP STARTER TREND:
-- The Giants are 9-0 since Apr 28, 2017 when Jeff Samardzija starts after their bullpen gave up 3+ runs yesterday.
TOP CHOICE TREND:
-- The Red Sox are 0-11 OU (-2.95 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 when it is the last game of a three game series when they lost the first two games.Comment
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MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (+145, 9)
The Nats and Phillies go to battle at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for the final game of their three-game series Wednesday evening. The first two games (one win for each team) were tight, low scoring, pitchers duels - and we expect nothing different tonight.
Neither offense is really clicking right now with the Nationals averaging only 2.75 runs per game over their last four contests and the Phillies are averaging only 2.2 over their last five. All of those games (Nats' last four and Phils' last five) have cashed for Under bettors.
"Mr. Consistency" Tanner Roark gets the start for Washington tonight. While Roark doesn't blow you away with eye-popping stats or radar gun results, he has certainly been a dependable hurler who hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start in two months (nine straight starts allowing three runs or less). His ERA during this solid nine-game run is 3.32 and he is actually carrying a current Under trend of 10-1 in his last 11 starts.
On the mound for the Phillies will be rookie right-hander Mark Leiter. While Leiter's overall numbers aren't very impressive, like many young starting pitchers, his splits at home are overwhelmingly better than those on the road. At home in his career (five starts and six relief appearances) he owns an ERA of 2.36, a WHIP of only 1.03, and an opponent's on base percentage of .277. Leiter is also in the midst of an Under trend at 4-0-1 in his five career starts at Citizens Bank Park.
There is a slight breeze blowing in from right field (7-9 miles per hour), both teams are riding Under streaks, and both starters are riding Under streaks.
Pick: Under 9
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (-175, 9)
It’s a matchup of American League Central teams who just a few seasons ago were battling for the division title, but this year it’s just pride on the line as the Tigers and Royals continue their three-game set Wednesday night in Kansas City.
The Royals took the opener 2-1, but there is a very good chance the bats wake up for Game 2, as the Tigers send Jordan Zimmermann to toe the rubber against the Royals' Jason Hammel.
Zimmermann’s first year with the Tigers has not gone as planned. The veteran right-hander is 8-13 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, both career worsts by a wide margin. Zimmermann’s last six starts have been particularly rough, where he has gone 1-4 with a whopping 10.41 ERA and a 2.13 WHIP.
The Tigers still owe Zimmermann around $88 million through 2020, yeesh.
Hammel meanwhile, has also not enjoyed his first season with his new team (luckily for KC at a much cheaper rate), struggling to an identical 8-13 record with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Hammel has been roughed up in his last three starts, going 0-3 while pitching to a 12.79 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP.
Despite the offensive numbers for both teams not being the greatest, they can take advantage of bad pitching and this is a whopper of bad pitching matchup.
Plus, the O/U is 11-6 this season in this matchup with an average of 10.8 total runs scored per game. Tonight’s total is too tempting.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 157-143-15
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (14-8, 3.38 ERA, $400)
Maybe a change of scenery is all Justin Verlander needed, because pitching in a pennant race sure looks good on him. The Astros newest starter has been nothing short of fantastic since coming over from the Tigers.
Verlander is 4-0 with an unfathomable 0.64 ERA and a crazy good 0.57 WHIP, while striking out 32 and walking just five since and has the best strikeout per nine innings of his career since switching jerseys at the end of August.
Verlander has actually won six of his last seven starts with a 1.10 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP with 58 strikeouts and nine walks. Oh, and he has allowed just five hits in his last 22 innings pitched.
Verlander and the Astros are currently hefty -195 road favorites for their matchup with the Rangers.
Slumping: Adam Conley, Miami Marlins (7-7, 5.74, $-15)
Unfortunately for Marlins fans, the only positive thing to talk about for this team has been Giancarlo Stanton's home run chase (of not a record 61 home runs?) as Miami failed to take a step forward this season. The same can be said for Adam Conley.
The southpaw has had a disappointing season after pitching to a 3.80 ERA in his first season and a half in the Bigs. Conley is 7-7 with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 2017 and his last three starts have not gone well. He is 1-0, but owns a big 10.50 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP in those starts.
Conley and the Marlins are big +175 road dogs for this afternoon's contest in Colorado.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* The Tampa Bay Rays are 7-22 in their last 29 games at Yankee Stadium. +235 today @ Yankees.
* The Baltimore Orioles are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games. +115 today @ Pirates.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 5-13 in Homer Bailey's last 18 starts vs. National League Central. +150 today at Brewers.
* Over is 14-3 in Jordan Zimmermann's last 17 starts vs. American League Central. Tigers/Royals Total: 9.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 50 percent chance of rain this afternoon in Denver where Stanton and the Marlins are scheduled to take on the Rockies at Coors Field. The Rockies are big -185 favorites today.
There will be a 9-11 mile per hour pitcher's wind blowing in from left field at Busch Stadium where the Cubs will be hoping to celebrate a National League Central division title on rival soil. The total for tonight is currently set at 9.
There will also be a pitcher's wind blowing in from left field in Cleveland (12 miles per hour) where the Indians will host the Twins. The total for that one is currently at 9.5.
Ump Of The Day
Mike Estabrook will be behind the plate tonight in The Bronx where the Yankees will entertain the Rays. Estabrook is the No. 5 Under umpire in Major League Baseball this season at 17-8 and over his last two seasons the Under is 32-18 (64 percent).
The total for tonight is currently set at 8.5Comment
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