Saturday 9-30-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris

Winnipeg / Edmonton Over 60

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hit the road to take on the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB, on Saturday night. The Blue Bombers have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games played in the month of September and they have gone an excellent 12-4 to the over in their last sixteen games following a game where they covered the number. They have also gone up and over the total five of their last seven games following a straight up win and they are a lights out 15-5-2 to the over in their last 22 games versus a West Division rival. The Eskimos have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone over the number in each of their last five Week 15 games going back to the 2012 season and they are 4-1 to the over in their last five games here in 2017. Throw in the fact that the Eskimos also have that same 4-1 record to the over in their last five versus a team from the West while the Blue Bombers are a perfect 9-0 to the over in their last nine versus a team with a winning record and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to get up and down the field in Edmonton on Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+12) over San Diego State

Not only has Northern Illinois covered nine of their last 10 games overall and 10 of their last 13 on the road, but this is a great situational spot for the Huskies. While San Diego State has been reading its press clippings about their surprising undefeated start, the Aztecs also come in off three-straight physical games against Arizona State, Stanford and Air Force, with two of those games coming on the road. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois had last week off and is playing with revenge after dropping a 42-28 decision to the Aztecs last year at home. Take the points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew Lange

Mid Tennessee St at Florida Atlantic
Play: Over 58.5

Four games and four very easy "unders" for Middle Tennessee State who for a third straight game except to be without the services of quarterback Brent Stockstill. The Blue Raiders have played a weird schedule with even weirder results. In Week 1, Vanderbilt was able to control tempo and grind out a low scoring 28-6 win. In Week 2, with Stockstill under center, MTSU traveled to Syracuse in what projected to be a high scoring affair (total closed 72). Instead, the Blue Raiders purposely slowed down the pace of the game and came away with a 30-23 win. Week 3 they stood little chance as Stockstill was ruled out and Vanderbilt-esque Minnesota put the clamps down en route to a 34-3 victory. And finally last week, a game in which I felt set up well for a bet on the "over", never had a chance as MTSU and Bowling Green scored only six points combined in a very sloppy second half after 31 points in the first half. The Blue Raiders accumulated 533 yards of total offense but only 24 points thanks to three turnovers. Overall, MTSU has played two "dead nuts" under teams in Vanderbilt and Minnesota, been without the best quarterback in school history, and coughed the ball up nine times for an overall turnover margin of -7. Those aren't the type of attributes that generally lead to games going over the total.

But this week could change. Backup quarterback John Urzua now has two starts under his belt and made big strides last week when he hit on 75% of his passes for 290 yards (9.1 ypa). He still made a few mistakes but should be fine against a questionable Florida Atlantic pass defense. The Owls' season-long numbers look very good thanks to games against Navy and Bethune-Cookman. Last week, Buffalo used two quarterbacks and posted a season-best 254 yards through the air.

For FAU, the transition to Lane Kiffin hasn't been smooth but that was to be expected. The schedule has been tough with a brutal matchup vs. Navy in Week 1 and road trips to Wisconsin and Buffalo. Still, even without an established starter at quarterback, the Owls have managed over 6 yards per play. And pace-wise they are playing at an above average clip (one snap every 21 seconds).

Oddsmakers really adjusted MTSU hard due to its results (0-4 O/U) and Stockstill's absence as this total opened 51. It's since been bet up to 58.5 and could very well climb higher. Given the unique circumstances for both squads with injuries and opponents, I feel this game has the potential to buck that trend and play more offensive friendly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

COLORADO STATE AT HAWAII
PLAY: COLORADO STATE -6.5

Hawaii has taken some sharp action the last coupe days, and that has caused this number to dip down to Colorado State -6.5. I can’t say I agree with the move. The Rams were not as good as the score indicated in a romp over Oregon State, but they also weren’t as bad as the score indicated in the loss to Colorado. CSU got drilled by Alabama as expected but the Rams showed plenty of fight in that skirmish and ended up scoring a couple of fourth quarter TD’s to slip well inside the number.

Hawaii is off a very tough overtime loss at Wyoming. The Rainbow Warriors were the better team on the field but left some points off the board and that ultimately cost them what would have been a nice conference road win.

This game has a good chance to be decided by turnovers. Both starting QB’s, Nick Stevens for CSU and Dru Brown for Hawaii, are vulnerable to interceptions. There’s a likelihood the team that takes batter care of the football will come out on top.

For me, its all about the power ratings. I have Colorado State -12.5 on a neutral field. The Hawaii home field advantage is not nearly what it used to be as the ‘Bows have turned into big time money burners at home, covering only three of their last 17 before the friendlies. CSU has been rewarding its backers on a very regular basis lately and in fact the Rams are on a 7-0 conference spread run.

I’m trusting the numbers here and I also like the fact the road team is of a bye while the hosts could be sharing from the OT loss last weekend. I’d look to side with Colorado State minus the points in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Central Michigan @ Boston College
Pick: Central Michigan +8

The Boston College Eagles were at one time one of the most consistent teams in the country. They managed to make their way to a Bowl game 12 straight years, but since then and lately, and since moving to the ACC, things just have not been the same. This will likely be the eighth straight year that BC wins no more than seven games, entering this contest at a wobbly 1-3. The Eagles struggled in their opener vs. Northern Illinois by winning a squeaker 23-20. They have not won since, and the issues that have plagued this team in recent years, the offense, continues to be problematic in 2017, as BC has averaged a woeful 15 ppg. It is tough looking at laying over a TD on a team that scores 15 points per game. Central Michigan averages 26.5 ppg, and won't likely get there, but they have proven they can move the ball enough to stick around. Make the play on Central Michigan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Clemson (-7) 30 VIRGINIA TECH 16

Virginia Tech is not as good as their 40-10 average score reflects, as the Hokies have actually been just average offensively and not particularly good on defense after factoring in their strength of schedule. Virginia Tech has averaged 6.5 yards per play, which is good until you consider that they’ve faced 4 teams that haven’t been good defensively and that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. The Hokies are a terrible running team (4.7 yards per rushing play if you exclude the 97 yards on 9 runs by their backup quarterback – against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and as good as quarterback Josh Jackson has been (9.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.7 yppp to an average QB) it is very unlikely that he’ll have success against a Clemson pass defense that’s allowed just 3.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defense. Jackson simply won’t have the time to sit back and look downfield, which is something he’s had a lot of success doing (15.0 yards per completion). Clemson is averaging 4.3 sacks per game and allowing only 48.5% completions and 10.8 yards per completion and they held Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham to 0.2 yards per pass play while sacking him 11 times. Heisman winner Lamar Jackson had a bit more success with 6.3 yppp but Jackson would average 8.5 yppp against an average defensive team. Clemson’s pass defense is the best in the nation and there is no way that the Hokies will be able to run against the Tigers, who have only allowed 3.6 yards per rushing play. Clemson’s defense is just too good for a one-dimensional offense to beat consistently.

Virginia Tech’s defense looks pretty good based on their 10.3 points allowed per game but the 4.8 yppl that the Hokies have allowed have come against teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team so that unit is really just 0.4 yppl better than average, which is not particularly impressive and far from how good they are perceived to be. Clemson’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged 290 rushing yards and 222 pass yards per game at 6.7 yprp and 6.7 yppp (and obviously 6.7 yards per play) while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers have faced 3 better than average defensive teams in Auburn, who has an elite defense, and Louisville and Boston College and the offense averaged 6.0 yppl in those 3 games and is projected to average 6.2 yppl in this game with success on the ground (6.0 yprp projected) and through the air (6.7 yppp).

Virginia Tech has faced 3 bad teams and the Hokies were outgained 469 yards at 6.5 yppl to 598 yards at 6.8 yppl by West Virginia – the only better than average team that they’ve faced. The Mountaineers are not nearly as good as Clemson and my math model gives the Tigers a 59% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of the model), which is a very profitable percentage. I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 at -120 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -8 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -4

The misleading final scores from last week’s games provide us with excellent line value on the Spartans. Iowa arrives in town off a heart-breaking 21-19 loss to Penn State that was decided on the final play of the game (Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley connected with Juwan Johnson for the game-winning touchdown as time expired).

Despite losing by just two points, Iowa was actually dominated from the line of scrimmage by the Nittany Lions. Indeed, the Hawkeyes were outgained by over 300 total yards in last week’s deceiving loss.

Meanwhile, Michigan State is home for the fourth consecutive week and is coming off a 38-18 loss to Notre Dame. Despite losing by twenty points, the Spartans actually outgained Notre Dame by 141 total yards but lost due to three turnovers and an uncharacteristically-high number of penalties. Due to last week’s disparate results, the betting public is falling over themselves to grab the points with what they believe is the better team.

However, a cursory review of the game’s respective box scores indicates that Michigan State had the much better performance despite suffering a double-digit loss.

Iowa is 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yards per play) and 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively (5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yards per play).

The Hawkeyes now face a stout Michigan State stop unit that is 20.7 points and 254 total yards per game at 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defense.

Iowa has no chance of moving the ball on the ground against a Spartans’ front seven that is 1.5 yards per rush attempt better than average this season. (Iowa is 0.4 yards per rush play better than average offensively). The Hawkeyes will also struggle to throw the ball against a Michigan State secondary that is limiting opposing quarterbacks to 5.1 yards per pass attempt with a 46.2% completion rate.

The Spartans own the nation’s sixth-best pass efficiency defense and the 44th-ranked rushing defense. Not surprisingly, Michigan State has committed the 13th-fewest number of penalties this season (head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the nation’s best).

The Spartans should be able to move the chains on the ground against an Iowa defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season (Michigan State is averaging 221 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per rush attempt).

From a technical standpoint, 2-1 college football home teams off a loss in the 4th game of a four-game season-opening home stand are 5-0-1 ATS as favorites of 3+ points since 1980. Let’s also note that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games, whereas the Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and 5-12-1 ATS after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Baylor vs, Kansas State
Play: Kansas St -16.5

Kansas State is playing with added preparation after having a bye-week. This Saturday affair offers the team a Big 12 opener against a struggling Baylor Bears (0-4) squad.

The Wildcats' (2-1) last effort was disappointing performance against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Bears gave the Oklahoma Sooners all they could handle last Saturday in Waco, Texas.

Baylor quarterback Zach Smith has thrown for seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season and in his six career starts has recorded at least 200 yards passing and two touchdowns. The majority of Smith's passes are thrown in the direction of Denzel Mims, who leads Baylor with 18 catches and 406 yards. Running back John Lovett has yet to exceed 100 yards rushing in any one of the team's four games this season.

Baylor ranks 32nd in passing yards (285.2) per game and 92nd in rushing (147.2). Defensively, the Bears allow over 500 yards per game, ranking them near the bottom in college football efficiency.

Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz leads the Wildcats in passing and rushing. Ertz has thrown for 587 yards and has registered 237 rushing yards in the team's first three games. Head coach Bill Snyder needs to find more production from his core of running backs reducing the wear and tear on his quarterback, Tailback's Alex Barnes (162 rushing yards) and Dalvin Warmack (76) contribute in the running game. Wide out Isaiah Zuber is the lone Wildcats' receiver with double-digit receptions (13 for 129 yards).

The Wildcats enter their conference opener as the top scoring defense in the Big 12 allowing less than 14 points per game.

Baylor performed admirably in last week's loss to the Sooners recording an against the spread cover while losing their fourth straight on the season. The Bears were out-rushed by a 348-62 margin and stayed in the game because of touchdown passes of 72 and 71 yards.

Coach Snyder and his Wildcats are a perfect 11-0 ATS coming off a bye-week and sport a more physical and technically sound defense than Oklahoma. Don't expect Baylor to repeat last week's performance that resulted in an eight-point loss to the Sooners, a game in which the Bears held a third quarter lead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive Sports

Tulsa +7.5

TULSA is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

TULSA is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons

TULSA is 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.

NAVY is 0-6 ATS in road games versus excellent rushing teams averaging >=230 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Conference Opener for Tulsa who has a Great chance of Winning Outright!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno

Clemson at Virginia Tech
Play: Over 51

Third time in four weeks that Clemson will be tested by a top 25 team. Having already having disposed of Auburn and Louisville both in straight up and against the spread fashion, the Tigers enter having played a far more rugged schedule than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have piled up gaudy statistics the past three weeks (outscored opponents 72-0 in 2H) but Delaware (FCS), East Carolina and Old Dominion hardly make VT battle tested. Last week, Tech faced an ODU team led by a 17-year-old true-freshman QB making his first career start. The Monarchs also played without star RB Ray Lawry for the third straight week. Certainly Virginia Tech will be fired up and well prepared for this game but the question is are they ready for the major step up in class. Their season opener at neutral site FedEx Field against West Virginia saw the Hokies hang on by a thread to win 31-24.

The key fundamentals in this matchup are pretty obvious can Virginia Tech’s offense find a way to neutralize the Clemson front four which has been dominant this season and will either of the first year QB’s be able to excel versus these stout defenses. Again. Clemson has already been in these situations so they should have an advantage. Kelly Bryant did not have a great game (19-of-29, 181 yards) against the elite Auburn defense but he didn’t turn the ball over and the offense rode the defense to a win. The following week it was Clemson’s defense that faced the nation’s top dual threat QB in Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and they basically shut him down until the game was decided in the fourth quarter. Hokies’ dual threat QB Josh Jackson has been stellar thus far but Clemson has already defeated the best.

Prime time Saturday night start guarantees an extremely raucous home crowd and frenzied atmosphere but those situations don’t seem to faze Clemson anymore. The obstacle for the Tigers here will be their opponent which is the most complete team they’ve played thus far. Virginia Tech features the offensive balance that Auburn didn’t plus the physicality and strong defense that Louisville didn’t. My power ratings made this game Clemson -7.5 so the current line is airtight which leaves us with the 50.5 total. That is where we’ll find our edge in this one. Look for each of these up-tempo explosive offenses to make enough plays and wear the opposing defenses down enough to score a baseline of 48 points. From there, have to expect the defenses to rattle the young QB’s into anywhere from 1-3 costly mistakes that lead to points. Special teams are also very capable of scoring here so with the very important key number of 51 on our side, the look here will be toward the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Sports

Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest +7.5

Remember that historic #1 vs. #3 (rankings) matchup between Alabama and Florida State that took place back in Week 1? Well, maybe it wasn't so historic after all. The Seminoles lost the game (24-7) and their starting QB (Deondre Francois) and it appears as if their season may have gone out the window as well. Before the year, had I told you that the 'Noles would be winless going into the final day of September, you would have likely wanted my head examined. But that's the reality. Now, to be fair, they've had two postponements (Hurricane Irma). But they lost LW at home to NC State, 27-21, as DD favorites. I would not be rushing to bet this team any time soon, especially here laying pts on the road.

It is Wake Forest that comes into this matchup unbeaten at 4-0 SU. I'd call that a surprise, but the Demon Deacons have been favored three times and a pick 'em once. This is - easily - Dave Clawson's best team yet here in Winston-Salem. Clawson has engineered turnarounds at all three previous stops in this coaching career, the last one being Bowling Green, so maybe this shouldn't be all that surprising. But what has impressed me is just how legit this team is. My own power rankings call this a Top 25 team and they rank 16th overall in efficiency nationally. I've been really impressed w/ what I've seen thus far, even in last week's non-cover at Appalachian State (won 20-19 as 5.5-pt road chalk).

I'm not saying the Demon Deacons will pull the outright upset here, but I do look for a close, one-possession game. This is the first "true" road start for FSU QB James Blackman, who remains a work in progress due to being called into duty unexpectedly. Note the Seminoles never led last week against NC State. Wake Forest is 7-1 ATS the last eight times it has been a dog, including four outright wins. Consider taking the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Mississippi at Alabama
Play: Alabama -28

Ole Miss has dominated this series ATS as of late but we don't expect that to continue. Alabama struggles with mobile quarterbacks, which is what the Rebels have had the past few years. But that's not the case anymore, so you can throw away the past and look at the present. Nick Saban made refference to teams thinking they had the Tide's number. We believe he will run up the score here if he's able.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Oklahoma St at Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +10.5

Oklahoma State (-10, 84), and Texas Tech meet in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday with kickoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. The unranked Red Raiders upset the Houston Cougars last week in a 27-24 win. The Cowboys lost their first game of the year this past Saturday to conference foe TCU by a 44-31 margin.

No. 14 Oklahoma State's Heisman Trophy candidate Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but was intercepted twice and lost a fumble. The senior came into the game with 11 touchdown passes against just one pick. Wide receiver James Washington and running back Justice Hill in combination with Rudolph form one of the most dangerous offensive trio's in college football.

The Cowboys didn't benefit from a light non-conference schedule. The team defeated Tulsa, South Alabama and Pittsburgh by a combined 110 points. TCU exposed the Cowboys defensive liabilities last Saturday and Texas Tech will attempt to emulate the scheme in this Saturday's contest.

The Red Raiders have a plethora of weapons on offense but the squads improvement defensively is where the team has made hay this season. Tech ranks ninth in FBS scoring (45 points per game) and third in total offense (587 yard per game). The Raiders defense has been consistently good through the first three games of the season holding opponents to just under 27 points per game.

Texas Tech quarterback Nic Shimonek ranks in the FBS top-5 quarterback rankings and came out of the win over Houston with 321 yards and two touchdown passes. Wide receiver Keke Coutee leads the team in receptions while running back Justin Stockton topped the 100 yard mark rushing for the first time this season last Saturday against the Cougars.

The Red Raiders tackled a much tougher non-conference schedule than did the Cowboys. Texas Tech has wins over Arizona State and Houston after a season opening 56-10 victory against underappreciated Eastern Washington.

The closely contested wins the last two weeks have Tech prepared for this home contest against Mason and the Cowboys. Oklahoma State's early September success inflated their market value and to some degree the high price point to support OSU remains this week. The Cowboys are double-digit favorites on Saturday in Lubbock, a number that I will gladly take, while supporting the home team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Northwestern @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin has struggled to run the ball in recent seasons but the Badgers appear to have found their next great running back in freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has 438 yards in his first 3 games while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per run. With a good ground game the Badgers’ play-action passes are even more effective and soph quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been incredibly efficient in completing 70% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass play. Wisconsin is very good offensively if Taylor is indeed the real deal and Northwestern’s mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) doesn’t appear good enough to stop the Badgers.

Northwestern’s offense came to life against Bowling Green in their most recent game (9.1 yppl and 49 points) but the Wildcats’ struggled offensively before that game an Wisconsin still has a very good defense that’s allowed just 10 points and 239 yards per game at 4.3 yppl (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). I don’t think Northwestern will do too much damage and the Badgers should be able to win by more than two touchdowns.

Indiana @ Penn St.

Penn State isn’t nearly as good offensively as they were last season because the pass attack has been inconsistent and not much better than average when compensating for defenses faced. The Nittany Lions are still very good offensively because of the running of Saquon Barkeley (518 yards at 7.8 ypr) and their defense is very, very good this season – so beating a mediocre Indiana team by a comfortable margin is a reasonable expectation. My model leans with Penn State and the Lions apply to a 66-31-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense (just 8.3 points allowed per game) but I see more value on the under (63) than on the side in this game.

Vanderbilt @ Florida

Luke Del Rio will get the start at quarterback, which is a desperate move considering how much Del Rio has struggled in his career. Del Rio has averaged only 6.1 yards on his 223 pass plays (209 last season and 14 last week) while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a downgrade but my math still favors Florida by 10 points against a Vanderbilt team that was given a wake-up call last week by Alabama in the form of a 59-0 ass kicking. Vandy is an improved team this season but Florida has under-performed so far defensively and I expect some improvement from the Gators on that side of the ball.

Mississippi St. @ Auburn

Mississippi State’s offense piled up 57 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense, then put 37 on an LSU defense that is good, but not elite this season. However, last week the Bulldogs ran into a legitimately elite Georgia defense and were held to just 3 points and 4.0 yards per play. Today they face another elite defense, as the Auburn Tigers have held their opponents to just 11.3 points and 230 yards per game at 3.6 yppl, which included limiting Clemson to 4.4 yppl. This game will tell me a lot about Mississippi’s ability to perform against a good defensive team. Was last week just a randomly bad game? Or, are the Bulldogs really not good enough to beat an elite defensive team? My math model is calling for something in between.

Auburn’s offense has been as good as expected in 3 of their 4 games and were held to 117 yards at 1.8 yppl by Clemson. Mississippi State is not Clemson defensively so I expect the Tigers to move the ball pretty well even though Miss State has a better than average defense. My math model favors Auburn by 8½ points so the line on this game is about right.

Mississippi @ Alabama

Mississippi had a week off after losing at Cal but I don’t know if having the extra week to prepare for Alabama really matters. Bama is 7-2 ATS when favored from 14½ to 35 points when they played last week and their opponent had a week off. That’s certainly not a trend I’d put any money on but it certainly suggests that the Rebels having a week off is not an advantage. Ole’ Miss has a very good quarterback in Shea Patterson, but the Rebels’ aerial attack was held in check at Cal, the only team they’ve faced with a decent defense. Alabama’s defense is, of course, more than decent. The Tide are one of the top two or three defensive teams in the nation every year. My math does project a decent 5.2 yards per play for Mississippi in this game but the Rebels are mediocre defensively and Bama has average 41 points in 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.5 yards per play better than defensively than the Ole’ Miss defense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Northern Illinois vs. San Diego St
Pick: Northern Illinois +10

San Diego State came into the 2017 season off back-to-back 11-win seasons, each capped by impressive bowl wins, 42-7 over Cincinnati in 2015 and 34-10 over Houston (as a four-point 'dog) in 2016. SDSU was un-ranked to open the year but wins at Arizona State (30-20) and 20-17 at home over then-No. 19 Stanford, as well as victories over UC-Davis and Air Force), has the 4-0 Aztecs at No. in the latest AP poll. Visiting Qualcomm Stadium late Saturday night will Northern Illinois program which knows more than just a little about winning in recent years. The Huuskies won 1 or more games in a five-year stretch from 2010 through 2014 and their run of seven straight winning seasons (and bowl trips) didn't end until last year's 5-7 mark. North Illinois is 2-1 to open the 2017 season, after an unexpected 21-17 upset of the Nebraska as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog. Northern Illinois lost its season opener 23-20 at BC (was a 3 1/2-point favorite), so comes in 3-0 ATS in 2017.

Northern Illinois was out-gained 384-286 and had the ball for under 24 minutes against Nebraska but the defense returned two interceptions for TDs (87 and 25 yards) to take a 14-0 lead. That defense is allowing 16.7 PPG (21st) on 303.3 YPG (26th). After falling behind the Cornhuskers 17-14, the Huskies took the lead with just under nine minutes left in the fourth quarter and hung on for the win. Starting QB Ryan Graham was hurt in the season opener (that three-point loss to BC) with sophomore Daniel Santacaterina taking over. He has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 380 yards, with three TDs and one INT. Santacaterina is 3-0 as NIU's starting QB, including a win over Kent St last season.

The Aztecs survived a road trip against the Air Force Falcons, coming away with a well-earned 28-24 win as a 1 1/2-point favorite. SDSU won the yardage battle 367-253 and allowed less then four yards per carry to the vaunted Falcons rushing attack and forced four fumbles, although there were no fumble recoveries. San Diego State relied on its own running game and Rashaad Penny responded with 128 yards on 20 carries with three TDs, while Juwan Washington added another 68 yards on 14 carries. Perry already has 716 rushing yards (second-most in the nation), on 7.9 YPC with seven TDs for a team averaging 228.5 YPG (26th). QB Christian Chapman has provided some valuable production in the air, completing 66.7 percent for 660 yards with five TDs and importantly, just one interception in 84 attempts.

I like a lot about San Diego State and will note that the Aztecs are 4-0 for the first time since 1981 and only the second time in the program’s last 42 seasons. However, this is a lot of points to give to a team which is an impressive 17-5 as a road dog going back to 2008. SDSU depends on its rushing game and Northern Illinois' first three opponents, Boston College, Eastern Illinois and Nebraska, have averaged 2.96, 1.33 and 2.36 YPC, respectively.