Sunday 10-1-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bruce Marshall

Lions at Vikings
Pick: Over

Case Keenum really is not much worse than Bradford (and Bucs might say he's not worse at all), and Vikes scoring some points this season, at least in two of first three games. Stafford & Co. very capable as well, they've seen this Zimmer "D" for a couple of years now (though neither of the 2016 games was higher-scoring), and Prater can salvage drives with some long FGs. Lured in by this low 40s "total" as it does not look high enough, and Vikes trending "over" lately ^6-1 last 7).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore +3

Last week, the underdogs cashed 11 of 16 tickets, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points. For the season, underdogs are 26-20 ATS, including 12-7 at home. Even better: underdogs are 11-1 ATS this year if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 7 points in their previous game. And that’s the situation here with the Baltimore Ravens. Indeed, Baltimore played the worst game of any football team yet this season, and the worst in the last 3 seasons, when it lost by 37 to Jacksonville, and failed to cover the spread by 40 points. I look for the Ravens to bounce back vs. their division rival on Sunday, as home underdogs off a loss, in which they gave up 40 or more points, are 114-74 ATS since 1980. The Ravens are also 15-4 vs. Pittsburgh at home when not laying 3 or more points, including 11-1 ATS off a loss.

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DAVE COKIN

EAGLES AT CHARGERS
PLAY: CHARGERS -2.5

The calendar might now read 2017 and the Chargers have moved from San Diego to Los Angeles, but this is turning into 2016 all over again for this beleaguered franchise. No team in the NFL is worse when it comes to finding ways to lose games it should have won.

That’s really the only holdup for me today as this is a good matchup for the Chargers. The Eagles were extremely fortunate to win last Sunday and this team is actually pretty close to being 0-3. Props to Philly for being opportunistic in garnering a pair of wins, but they have not played good football thus far this season.

I give the Chargers the edge in scheduling here, and I rate their defense ahead of that of the Eagles through the first three weeks of action. The offenses are close, although in the case of LA, they’re erratic. That’s thanks to the inconsistency of QB Phillip Rivers, who can be either great or pretty awful. Last week he was the latter and Rivers has had a tendency to rebound from bad games, so I suspect he plays well today.

I made the Chargers -3.5 in this game and one would certainly think they play with a major sense of urgency. At 0-3, they can pretty much start looking to 2018 with another loss here. This game missed my card because I just can’t trust the team, but it’s a game I believe the Chargers should win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oakland vs. Denver
Pick: Denver -3

The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos, both serious AFC title contenders, square off in one of Week 4's marquee matchups late Sunday afternoon at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Both teams fell last Sunday, after each opened 2-0. The Raiders need to bounce back from a 27-10 loss at Washington, in which the team's highly-touted offense was completely dominated. As for the Broncos, despite a solid effort from their defense last Sunday in Buffalo (allowed just 272 total yards to the Bills), they fell 26-16. The winner here in this matchup of long-time AFC West rivals moves to 3-1, while the loser falls to 2-2 (3-0 Chiefs host the Redskins on MNF).

The Raiders looked great in winning 26-16 at Tennessee and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. However, the offense "went missing" in Washington last Sunday night, as QB Derek Carr passed for an anemic 118 yards with one TD and two INTs. Marshawn Lynch led the team with just 18 yards on six carries with Oakland rushing for an embarrassing 32 yards on 13 carries as a team. Overall, the Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs! The defense was just as bad, as the Redskins rolled up 472 yards!

The Broncos defense did its job in Buffalo (allowed a modest 272 yards) but that was not enough to overcome Denver's offensive shortcomings. QB Trevor Siemian was 24 of 40 for 259 yards, didn't throw a TD and was picked off twice. The running game added 111 yards (4.8 YPC is good) but it was not nearly enough in this contest. The Broncos need to run the ball better to take pressure off of Siemian, who has been sacked nine times in the first three games. However, there may be some good news in this contest for Denver's rushing attack. C.J. Anderson ranks fifth in the league with 235 rushing yards and has recorded 310 scrimmage yards with four TDs in his last three games against Oakland, Meanwhile, his new RB partner, Jamaal Charles, has 962 yards and 11 TDs in 12 career meetings with the Raiders. The former Chiefs running back needs 134 scrimmage yards to become the 11th active player to record 10,000 in his career!

The Raiders quickly went from "one of the teams to beat" in the AFC to "what happened?" in just one game last Sunday night. I don't want to overreact but if Redskins' defense could 'stuff' Carr, Lynch and company, why can't Denver's outstanding defense do the same? Especially here at home, where the Broncos are 35-7 SU in the regular season since 2012! Throw in that the favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and the play is on the Broncos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Shively

New York at Tampa Bay
Pick: New York +3

The Giants are off to a horrendous start, but last week they showed they do have some life and fight in them

New York went down 14-0 and found some offense as they rattled off 21 unanswered points, the first real time Eli Manning and company have found some rhythm. Despite the lost, there is some reason for optimism after seeing the offense.

They take on a Bucs defense that is very vulnerable too. We saw the Vikings torch their secondary last week, something Backham Jr. and Manning should have some success with.

New York and the points is worth a move. They should have a shot to steal this one outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona -6.5

The set-up: The San Francisco 49ers were 2-14 in 2016 (only the 1-15 Browns were worse and opened the 2017 season by losing 23-3 at home to Carolina 23-3 and 12-9 in Seattle. However, while the 49ers would fall to 0-3 with a Week 3 home loss to the Rams, the offensively-challenged 49ers put up 39 points in that Thursday night affair while losing 41-39 when they failed to tie the game on a late two-point conversion try. San Francisco will travel down to Glendale, Arizona on Sunday to take on the 1-2 Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals look like a vastly different team than the one that played in the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (in 2015, after a 13-3 regular season), opening 1-2 with their lone win coming 16-13 in OT against the Indianapolis Colts. That victory has been sandwiched between losses to Detroit 35-23 and Dallas 28-17.

San Francisco: The 49ers finally woke up on offense against the Rams, as QB Brian Hoyer passed for 332 yards with two TDs, after he had thrown for only 292 yards in the team's first two games. After scoring just 12 points in opening 0-2, the 49ers scored 39 points and rolled up 421 yards. However, after allowing just 35 points in the season's first two weeks (and coming off holding Seattle to just 12 points), the Rams ran up 41 points on the Niners and if LA hadn't made some major mistakes down the stretch, the contest would not have been as close as it wound up in the final score.

Arizona: QB Carson Palmer finished 29-of-48 for 325 yards and two TDs against Dallas (WR Larry Fitzgerald had 13 receptions for 149 yards and a TD). Palmer has 925 yards passing (Arizona ranks 3rd in passing YPG at 284.0) but Chris Johnson is the Cardinals’ top rusher with just 61 yards on 23 attempts. It's clear that the Cardinals are really feeling the absence of star RB David Johnson, who is out indefinitely after suffering a dislocated wrist in the season opener. Arizona is 31st in a 32-team league in rushing, averaging 59.0 YPG. The defense allows 309.0 YPG to rank 9th but unfortunately, ranks much higher in the more important points allowed category at 26th, allowing 25.3 per game.

The pick: No one (even San Fran themselves) expected the 49rers to do much in 2017 but for the Cardinals, this game could be described as a "desperate time which calls for desperate measures!" At 1-2, a home loss to the pathetic 49ers would all but doom Arizona's season by Week 4. Arizona has won five of the six meetings in the last three years against division rival San Francisco, with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2014. The Cardinals are not the 13-3 team of 2015 but we'll find out here if they have any designs on being a better team than last year's 7-8-1 edition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Buster Sports

Jacksonville at New York
Play: Jacksonville -3.0

The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as 4 1/2 point favorites at New York and now at the time of this writing, they are only 3 point favorites and we are going to lay it with the Jaguars. Everyone seems to think that the beat down the Jets put on Miami last week makes than the hot home underdog this week. We believe different. We see rookie RB Leonard Fournette having a big day against the Jets today and the Jets struggling with the Jacksonville D. Although the Dolphins decided not to even show up last week in New York, the truth is New York has a bad run defense. The Bills ran for 190 yards and the Raiders ran for a 180 against the Jets D. The Jaguars will look to run the ball and then play defence with the third ranked D in the league. We do not see many points for the Jets today and we will look for the Jaguars to win this easily by 10 to 14 points. Backing our selection is the fact that the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings between the clubs and the fact that the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

Buffalo / Atlanta Over 48.5

After going under in Week 1, Atlanta has gone over the last two weeks, running its record to a remarkable 18-3-1 to the over in their last 22 games overall. We see no reason to step in front of that trend here today as the Falcons return home to their new home stadium where they put up 43 points in the first-ever home game two weeks ago. Very quietly, Buffalo has also been an “over” team with 21 over in its last 35 games overall. Put it all together and we’ll call for a shootout in Atlanta today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV Traders

Cincinnati at Chicago
Pick: Chicago

Sure it's a big price to lay and sure the Cubs will certainly be resting some guys on the last day of the season. That said, Chicago is starting a big league player (Montgomery) while Cincinnati is starting a minor league pitcher... McGuire is making his second start with the Reds and can't be trusted to get through the order twice. Chicago will score plenty and the Wrigley faithful will celebrate the last day of the season by flying the W.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cheat Sheet - WNBA Finals

(1) Minnesota vs. (2) Los Angeles

Best-of-Five (2-2-1 Format)

Game 1 – Sunday, Sept. 24
Game 2 – Tuesday, Sept. 26
Game 3 – Friday, Sept. 29
Game 4 – Sunday, Oct. 1
Game 5 – Wednesday, Oct. 4

Series Price – per BookMaker.eu

Minnesota -160
Los Angeles +140

Betting Notes - Minnesota

-- Minnesota swept Washington 3-0 in the semifinals, winning all three games by double digits. The Lynx went 2-1 against the spread in the series.

-- Including the playoffs, the Lynx have won six straight games by 10-plus points and they’ve covered the number in four of those games.

-- The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the semifinals.

-- Minnesota has gone 17-2 SU and 9-10 ATS at the Xcel Energy Center this season while the ‘under’ produced a 10-9 record.

-- The Lynx were 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the road this season.

-- The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven away games for Minnesota.

Betting Notes – Los Angeles

-- Los Angeles advanced to the WNBA Finals with a three-game sweep over Phoenix in the semifinals.

-- The Sparks went 2-1 versus the number and only failed to cover Game 3 as they nipped the Mercury 89-87 as 4 ½-point road favorites.

-- Los Angeles will bring a 10-game winning streak into the finals and the club has gone 9-1 ATS during this run while the ‘under’ is 7-3 over this span.

-- The Sparks went 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS at home this season.

-- Los Angeles went 11-9 SU and 10-8 ATS away from home this season.

-- Similar to Minnesota, the ‘under’ has been a solid wager for L.A. on the road lately with a 5-2 mark in its last seven.

2017 Regular Season Encounters

July 6 – Minnesota 88 (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles 77 (Under 166.5)

August 11 - Los Angeles 70 (+5.5) at Minnesota 64 (Under 161.5)

August 27 – Los Angeles 78 (-2.5) vs. Minnesota 67 (Under 155.5)

2016 WNBA Finals

Game 1 – Los Angeles 78 (+6.5) at Minnesota 76 (Under 161)

Game 2 – Minnesota 79 (-7) vs. Los Angeles 60 (Under 159)

Game 3 – Los Angeles 92 (+1) vs. Minnesota 75 (Over 159.5)

Game 4 – Minnesota 85 (+1) at Los Angeles 79 (Over 160)

Game 5 – Los Angeles 77 (+5.5) at Minnesota 76 (Under 156.5)

WNBA Finals History – 1997-2016

-- The league went to a best-of-five format during the 2005 season. In the 12 series, we’ve seen five sweeps (3-0), four matchups go to a decisive Game 7 and three series end in four games (3-1).

-- The Sparks have won the WNBA Championship three times, including last year’s victory over Minnesota.

-- The previous title for the Sparks came in 20012 when the franchise pulled off the rare repeat.

-- Los Angeles failed to three-peat in 2003 as it was defeated by the now defunct Detroit Shock.

-- Since the 2011 season, Minnesota has won three championships and finished runner-up twice. The victories included two sweeps.

-- The Lynx have alternated titles the last six years and if that trend continues, they’ll be champions this seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Dunkel

Sunday, October 1

Minnesota @ Los Angeles

Game 669-670
October 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
123.574
Los Angeles
120.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 3
152
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 1

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MINNESOTA (31 - 9) at LOS ANGELES (31 - 9) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 13-8 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 11-10 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
14 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Sunday, October 1

Trend Report

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. LOS ANGELES
Minnesota is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Los Angeles is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential Week 4 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has struggled in his two career starts at Denver. He's completed less than 50 percent of his pass attempts and owns an ugly 68.3 QB rating at Mile High.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (+3, 49.5)

There were a lot of things not to like about the Dolphins’ performance against the New York Jets but maybe none more than their decisions on third down. Miami converted just one of its 12 third down attempts against Gang Green which pushed the team down to last in the league in third down conversion rate at 24 percent.

There should be a chance to correct the problem this week as the Saints’ defense still ranks among the worst in the league even after the team’s win over the Panthers last week.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Fish getting 2.5 points and there’s where most books still have the line. There are a few shops dealing Miami +3. The total is holding steady at 49.5 although there a few places offering 50.

TRENDS

*The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass
*The Over is 6-0 in the Saints’ last six games.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 47.5)

What a difference a year makes. The Los Angeles Rams finished dead last in points per game at 14.0 a season ago and are first this year at 35.7. They’ve scored 40 or more points twice this season and they had only two games scoring that many points in the previous 10 years.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened with the Cowboys giving as many as 8.5 points but most shops are now dealing Rams +6.5 and there are even a few 6’s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
*The Over is 5-0 in the Rams’ last five games.
*The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

The Jags are in unfamiliar territory entering New York as the betting favorite. It’s the first time the Jaguars have been away chalk since 2011 and it snaps a 44-game stretch of consecutive contests as away pups. The Browns were in a similar spot last week as the faves at Indianapolis and ended up losing outright.

LINE HISTORY: This spread opened at Jets +3.5 and there’s where it still stands at most sportsbooks, however, there are a few locations separating these teams by a field goal. The total is holding at 39.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games.
*The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)

The Falcons are the first Super Bowl loser to start the next season 3-0 straight up since the 2006 Seahawks. Seattle went on to go 9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS that season. Buffalo is the first of four straight games against AFC East opponents for Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as 9-point chalk and the action is titling toward the visiting Bills so far. Buffalo is now as low as a 7.5-point dog. The total looks like it’s going to settle at 48.5 after opening at 49.

TRENDS:

*Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
*Buffalo is 7-3 in its last 10 games following an ATS win.
*The Over is 12-0 in Atlanta’s last 12 home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3, 41)

There was a least some signs of progress on offense for the Bengals last week against the Packers. Cincy scored its first touchdown of the campaign and quarterback Andy Dalton had his highest QB rating in a road game since 2015.

But new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is still trying to come up with a way to fix the offensive line. The unit allowed three sacks last week, all in third-and-long spots, and has given up 11 QB takedowns this season.

Backup lineman Andre Smith relieved left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi and right tackle Jake Fisher at different points during the Green Bay game. Is that because the Bengals want to keep their tackles fresh or because they don’t really like either of their starters?

LINE HISTORY: A few places opened with the Begnals as 3.5-point road faves but there are only 3s on the board now with varying amounts of juice. The total opened at 40 and has been bet up to 40.5 and 41.

TRENDS:

*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Browns’ last six home games and 6-1 in the Bengals’ last seven games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 49)

The Patriots’ defense is an issue. It ranks last in yards allowed per game and finished no worse than 13th in this stat over the last three seasons. The Texans had scored only 20 points in two games before putting up 33 against the Pats last weekend.

Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson passed for over 300 yards and ran for another 41 at New England. If mobile QBs are a problem for Bill Belichick’s defense, it might help Cam Newton break out of his season-long funk.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Pats giving 8.5 points but most shops are dealing either Pats -9 or 9.5. The total opened at 47.5 and now rests around 49.

TRENDS:

*New England is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.
*The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Over is 7-0 in the Pats’ last seven games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 41.5)

It’s been three weeks and we’ve yet to see the same Steelers’ offense from the past few seasons. Pittsburgh finished seventh in total offensive yardage last year and third the year prior. After three games this season they sit in the bottom third of the league.

Head coach Mike Tomlin says his team needs more “splash” plays and that probably means he’s talking about his running back. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been his regular self since ending his contract holdout at the end of the preseason. The Steelers longest running play this season was for just 15 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point chalk and have been bet up to -3 faves. The total has been bet down from 45 to as low as 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC North opponents.
*The Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the league and have allowed a league-low two sacks in 2017. But Texans’ defensive lineman J.J. Watt has feasted on the Titans over his career. The three-time winner of the defensive player of the year award has racked up 15.5 sacks, seven passes defended, six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 10 games against Tennessee.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with Tennessee favored by 1 or 2 points and the line continues to float between the two numbers. The total opened at 43.5 and some shops are at 44 now.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games.
*The Texans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 AFC South games.
*The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Chargers beat writer Eric D. Williams layed out a sad stat stuffer about the Chargers’ last 40 games. During that 40-game stretch the Bolts are 11-27 straight up (17-22-1 ATS) and have blown 13 fourth quarter leads.

They’ve turned the ball over 74 times in those 40 games with 47 of those coming by way of a Philip Rivers interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened at most shops as 1 to 1.5-point favorites and that’s where we sit midweek. The total has been bet up a full point from the opening number of 46.5 to 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 0-7-1 in their last eight games overall and 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games.
*The Over is 12-2 in the Eagles’ last 14 road games.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)

The Bucs are in the middle of a three-game stretch against three quarterbacks who have their number. Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times points out Case Keenum, Eli Manning and Tom Brady are a combined 11-0 against the Bucs franchise.

Keenum torched T-Bay last week to the tune of 369 yards and three touchdowns on 25 of 33 passes. Manning is 5-0 against the Bucs and last beat them in 2015 at Tampa Bay 32-18.

LINE HISTORY: The Bucs opened as 4-point chalk but are now down to 3-point faves at most shops. The total opened at 43.5 and shifted half a point to 44.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 games overall.
*The Under is 6-2-1 in the Bucs’ last nine games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)

Arizona’s front office is not happy with the play of its offensive line following last week’s performance against Dallas. Cards GM Steve Keim said the play of the unit was unacceptable and he even signaled out right tackle Jared Veldheer who got owned by Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence.

Arizona had been starting backups on the left side of its line but two linemen suffered pectoral strains Monday against the Cowboys. The hope is regular starters DJ Humphries and Mike Iupati can return for this weekend but head coach Bruce Arians sounds less than optimistic about those chances.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas opened with the Cards as 7-point home faves and that’s where the line stands going into the weekend. The total is holding at 44.5

TRENDS:

*The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against NFC West opponents.
*The Under is 11-2 in the Cards’ last 13 home games.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 47)

The Raiders’ loss last week at Washington is a game quarterback Derek Carr hopes to soon forget. The normally elite signal caller was picked off twice in the first half and played a major role in Oakland going 0-for-11 on third downs.

Carr has not played well at Mile High Stadium. He missed last year’s game because of injury but in two games he owns a 68.3 QB rating at Denver.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Broncos -2.5 and the line has moved up to Broncos -3. The total can be found between 46.5 and 47.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last six away dates.
*The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games overall.
*The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between this two teams.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

The issues with Seattle’s offensive line have been going on for years, and, at this point, pretty well documented. Another reason for the Seahawks 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS start: that vaunted defense isn’t so special anymore.

The Seahawks are allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the ground – a big jump from their league-low mark last season at 3.4. And Seattle pass rush was toothless against Tennessee. Marcus Mariota was pressured on just two of his 37 drop backs last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with Seattle giving 12.5 points but just about everyone is at Colts +13 now. The total opened at 41 but most shops have moved up to 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
*The Over is 24-9 in the Colts last 33 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday, October 1

Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Colts at Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano has the music revved up on the practice field this week, but it has nothing to do with celebrating the team's first victory. The Colts will be heading into one of the league's toughest environments at raucous CenturyLink Field when they pay a visit to the Seattle Seahawks in prime time on Sunday night.

Pagano has no illusions as to what awaits his team, which is coming off a 31-28 victory over Cleveland behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired from New England at the beginning of the month. "We've got a really young football team, and we will bring a bunch of guys that have never been in an environment like this and play an opponent like this," Pagano acknowledged. The Seahawks have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, struggling on both sides of the ball in their 1-2 start. Seattle's offense finally came to life after two pedestrian efforts to open the season but the defense was bulldozed in last week's 33-27 loss at Tennessee.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4.5) - Seahawks (-2) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 13.5-point home chalk but quickly dropped to 13 Monday morning and remained there all week. The total hit the betting board at 41.5 and was yet to move off the opening number.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Something’s not right with the Seattle Seahawks these days and it is largely attributed to the condition of a shaky offensive line. As a result Pete Carroll’s crew is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the 2017 season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis enters off a win over lowly Cleveland while having been outgained in each of its initial three games. Given Seattle’s 10-2 ATS mark in recent games against AFC South opponents, it would be most surprising should the Seahawks not level their record at 2-2 tonight.” - Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY:“With a big number and the state the Colts are in, there hasn't been a ton of betting interest for Sunday night just yet. That will change as Sunday wears on, but this won't be nearly the handle we usually see for SNF. Saw some early sharp action on the Colts, but then got some on the Seahawks so we're back to the opener. The low total has seen some over bets from the pros too. Currently, 65 percent of the tickets on Seattle side and 55 percent of the money there as well.” Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Foot), G Deyshawn Bond (Probable, Ankle), WR Kamar Aiken (Probable, Concussion), CB Vontae Davis (Probable, Groin), CB Chris Milton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Questionable, Knee), WR Chester Rogers (Out, Hamstring), RB Marlon Mack (Out, Shoulder), QB Andrew Luck (Mid-November, Shoulder).

Seahawks - CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), G Luke Joeckel (Probable, Knee), DE Frank Clark (Probable, Hamstring), S Earl Thomas (Probable, Knee), Wr Doug Baldwin (Questionable, Groin), DT Nazair Jones (Questionable, Knee), CB Neiko Thorpe (Questionable, Ankle), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Hamstring), RB C.J. Prosise (Out, Ankle), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With Andrew Luck still not able to practice, Brissett was handed the reins after Scott Tolzein flopped in the first half of a 46-9 drubbing to the Rams in the season opener. He became the first quarterback in franchise history to rush for two touchdowns, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards as the Colts put up 28 first-half points last week. T.Y. Hilton, who led the league in receiving yards last week, had seven receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Seattle's defense had long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher, but it has allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray and the Titans. The offensive managed a combined 21 points in the first two weeks but finally showed signs of life at quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and fourth touchdowns in a belated comeback attempt last week. One potential issue for this week: top wideout Doug Baldwin suffered a groin strain during Sunday's 10-catch, 105-yard game and didn't practice Wednesday. Rookie Chris Carson leads the ground game but third-down back C.J. Prosise is out for Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in October.

* Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dogs Colts at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.