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3 Stars
Auburn -21 (3 Star up to -24)
Miami OH -14 (3 Star up to -16.5)
Marshall -15 (3 Star up to -17)
Washington St -2.5 (3 Star up to -5)
SD St -8 (3 Star up to -8)
ASA PLAY ON 7* TOP PLAY Texas Longhorns (-4.5) over Kansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET
This one falls into a very successful system that we've had in place over the last 12 years. Games that fall into this system have hit with a 77% success rate. It involves a strength of schedule formula along with a few other criteria which will remain with us. Sometimes long-term trends are so well-known that they actually create big value in the other direction when the situation is right and that is precisely the case here. Kansas State, under head coach Bill Snyder, has long been known as a great play on team when they are a road dog. However, in this particular case, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Longhorns have played a much tougher schedule than the Wildcats have so far this season but certainly they won't be worn down here. Remember the great game the Longhorns played against USC earlier this season? That was in mid-September and was followed by a bye week. Then last week Texas finally played again and it was a Thursday game (solid win at Iowa State) so they do have a rest edge over a Kansas State team that played on Saturday. The Wildcats got the win over Baylor Saturday but the Bears have been dreadful this season. That's noteworthy because the Wildcats other wins have come over Central Arkansas and Charlotte! Kansas State lost their only tough game (Vanderbilt) and certainly the Commodores are not comparable to the Southern Cal team that the Longhorns went toe to toe with. Texas got surprised by Maryland in the season opener which proved to be a wake up call, and a good thing for the Horns. Since that loss, the Longhorns are on a perfect 3-0 ATS run. The rush defense of the Longhorns has been fantastic (41 yards per game) in their last 3 games and has allowed under 100 yards per game on the season which is 15th best in the nation. That is a major problem for K-State which averages 43 rushes per game (32nd in the country) and 243RYPG (16th). But the Wildcats impressive rushing stats are very misleading as they’ve faced Baylor (120th in rush D), Vandy (116th) and Charlotte (93rd). Kansas State to have to try and beat the Longhorns through the air with a passing attack that is averaging just 128 passing yards per game against FBS schools (Central Arkansas is an FCS school) and is 122nd out of 130 schools. The Cats are going to struggle to move the ball here and they only scored 7 points in their lone road game this season while UT has put up 97 points in their two home games this year. Home team has covered 5 straight....Look for a home blowout in this one.
8 Fresno St. -17 vs San Jose St. 7:30pm
7 Ohio U -10 vs Central Michigan 2:00pm
7 Hawaii -3.5 vs Nevada 10:30pm
6 UAB +11 vs Louisiana Tech 4:00pm
6 Central Florida -16.5 vs Cincinnati 8:00pm
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