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Marco D Angelo
Analysis:
PLAY: (395) LSU +2
RATING: 5% PLAY
LSU is coming off losing to Troy as a 20 point favorite last week so why in the world would I want to bet them here? Well first off last week’s game was Homecoming for LSU which can be a distraction more often than not as you have family, friends and alumni all invading the campus that week. Then you have Troy coming to town a team you figure you just have to show up and you will beat. LSU wasn’t mentally prepared last week and it cost them. LSU had 4 TO’s which aided Troy in the upset. Now LSU must travel on the road to play Florida. Suddenly with 3 wins in a row Florida has cracked the Top 25. But let’s look at those 3 wins. First they beat Tennessee who is playing bad and it took a Hail Mary on the last play to win that game. Tennessee lost last week 41-0 to Georgia. Then they beat Kentucky 28-27. In that game 2 of Florida’s TD’s including the game winner came on plays where the Kentucky defense had blown coverages where no one lined up on the receiver and Florida hit wide open uncontested TD’s. Last week they beat Vandy 38-24 but it was just a 7 point game late in the 4th Q before Florida broke one when they were just trying to run out the clock. Vandy had just lost the week before to Alabama 59-0. Point is Florida isn’t as good as they may seem and LSU isn’t as bad. LSU has the #33 ranked offense at 6.4 YPP while Florida has the #67 ranked offense at 5.7 YPP. Defensively LSU has the #30 ranked defense at 4.8 YPP while Florida is ranked #88 at 5.7 YPP. The LSU offense will continue to get better by the week as they learn Matt Canada’s system. Lastly the fact that LSU got embarrassed last week guarantees that we get a totally focused effort as you know this team got drilled in practice this week. My numbers have LSU winning 30-20.
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