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Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: Montreal Canadiens - 130
Thursday's Free Pick: Montreal Canadiens - 130
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Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 10/5 MLB ASTROS -141Comment
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Free Selection from Kenny Towers
Un 66 Lou/NCST - NCAAF -Comment
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Info Plays
Oct 05 '17, 4:05 PM
MLB | Red Sox vs Astros
Play on: Astros -130 at betonline
1* Free Play on Astros -130Comment
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Eric Schroeder
I'll be real honest with this free pick, it looked far too easy to expect North Carolina State to steal this one at home, and I think the oddsmakers are begging you to take the home underdog. So I'm going to lay the chalk - after buying a half point off the field goal line - and take the Louisville Cardinals with Lamar Jackson.
Personally, I think whichever team seizes momentum early will have a big advantage, and I'm putting the onus on Lousivlle to do so, like last year. Remember when the Cardinals scored with authority early, opening a 17-0 lead after one quarter and 44-0 at halftime?
Through five games this season, Louisville has generated the most plays of 10 or more yards in the country, and if it can stretch the field in this game, chewing up yards and clock, the Wolpack will suffer terribly and struggle to keep up offensively.
Yes, the Pack is ranked and it is at home. But with the game close at the end, the Cardinals are going to ice this game with covering score late.
Take the road chalk.
5* LOUISVILLEComment
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Mike Lundin
Oct 05 '17, 7:05 PM
NHL | Canadiens vs Sabres
Play on: Sabres +117 at 5Dimes
#NHL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Buffalo Sabres will start the new season by hosting Atlantic Division rival Montreal Canadiens at KeyBank Center Thursday night. I like the price we get on the Sabres in this contest.
Buffalo is led by third-year center Jack Eichel who signed an NHL-maximum eight-year, $80 million contract on Tuesday. Note that he led the Sabres in scoring last year, despite missing the first 21 games of the season due to injury and he'll be looking to show the home town crowd he's worth the new contract. The Sabres have a new head coach in Phil Housley, who was the assistant coach for the Nashville Predators last year, hopefully bringing some fresh ideas.
Montreal is the defending Atlantic Division champion and has one of the best netminders in the game in Carey Price. We can however note that Price is just 14-12-8 in previous meetings with the Sabres. These teams split their four meetings last year, so the Sabres know how to beat the Habs and Price.Comment
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Primetime Sports Picks
MLB Astros -130Comment
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National Sports Service
CFB Louisville over 65.5Comment
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Insider Sports Report
MLB Cleveland -135Comment
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Monster Sports Picks
CFB Louisville -170 MLComment
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Doc's Picks
CFB NC State +3Comment
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Joe Duffy
TNF Total From Sizzling and Proven Handicapper
New England vs. Tampa Bay, 10/05/2017 20:25 EDT
Total: -110/+54½ Over
Sportsbook:
Bodog
No. 1 in preseason football, No. 4 in college football, No. 8 in regular season NFL, Joe Duffy again is winning as steady as he has for nearly 30 years since the score phones.
Very big guaranteed portfolio. Get Wise Guy winners on the college and NFL sides, plus college total. Profit is guaranteed.
New England vs. Tampa Bay free pick
" Pats No. 2 over team, going over all four by 15.5 points per game
" Pats third worst spread team at -8.8 and 1-3
" Teams with a worse winning percentage yet still a road favorite of 3.5 or more are 18-12
" Tom Brady off a loss is 30-10 against the spread and 20-3 on the road
" Bill Belichick has never won in Tampa as an assistant or head coach
" Biggest regular season game in Tampa history
" Tampa gets back Doug Martin from suspension this week
o 4,227 career yards rushing for 4.2 but just 2.9 yards per rush last year
" Two solid TE in Cameron Brate and OJ Howard
" DeSean Jackson only nine catches but Martin could open things up
" Brady has been sacked 13 times, seventh in the league
" Patriots 9-3 favorites
" Slightly below median consensus for road favorites and modest percentage over, less than normal
Free pick is: OVERComment
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Red Sox are 1-5 in last 6 ALDS road games.
Astros are 11-2 in last 13 at home & 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts with HOU.
BOS +120 / HOU -130Comment
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Pro Computer Gambler
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Astros -128
Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games.
The Astros are 14-2 ON since Sep 12, 2017 as a favorite
The Astros are 11-2 ON since Aug 31, 2017 as a home favoriteComment
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SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +5 over New England
The Buccaneers don't get a lot of attention, as Tampa isn't exactly New York City, but the home squad has ripped off six straight at Raymond James Stadium. Thursday’s game against the Patriots is sold out, which is a big deal for the Bucs, as they ranked in the bottom third in stadium capacity percentage in 2016. With young talented players like Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, the Bucs have been a sexy preseason sleeper in recent years but have not fulfilled those lofty expectations. After their season was delayed in Week 1 because of Hurricane Irma, Tampa opened their season in Week 2 with a rousing 29-7 win over the Bears. The defense feasted with four turnovers in a big emotional victory after a huge regional disaster. We are willing to forgive the Bucs Week 3 loss in Minnesota, as it looked to be a big letdown spot and we acted accordingly by posting the Vikes as an official play. Last week against the Giants, the Bucs needed a last-second field goal to beat a winless team but it seems that did little to impress the market. However, we liked what we saw from the offense, as Winston threw for 300 yards and three TD’s against a Giants’ secondary that still has respect around the league and that Pro Football Focus ranked number one coming into 2017. Through three games, the Bucs offense is ranked ninth in yards per game (362.3) and Winston is sixth in yards per attempt. The Buccaneers should also get a jump start from returning running back Doug Martin. The two time Pro Bowler is loved by his teammates who he remained close with during his suspension. Fellow runner Charles Sims said, “He brings life and energy. He's a game-changer”. Martin took part in the entire offseason program, training camp and the preseason and it sounds like his presence will bring a boost to the locker room.
On the surface, one doesn’t have to look far to see that the weakness of these Patriots is their defense. New England is 32nd in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game; only the Colts are worse. Last year, the Pats played a lot more aggressive at the corners mostly in press/man coverage so it looked like the perfect fit when they signed high priced free agent corner Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo, a specialist in that defensive scheme. Instead, this season the Patriots have played far more zone than man leaving Gilmore totally out of his element and in Bill Belichick’s doghouse after he was benched in the third quarter of Sundays 33-30 loss to the Panthers. That score actually flatters the Patriots, who were down 30-16 with 12:58 left in the fourth quarter. It was the second week in a row the Pats were forced to come back in the final frame but this week they came up short. One of the Patriots biggest weaknesses last season was their inability to cover another team’s number one receiver. Gilmore was supposed to be that guy to plug that hole but after four weeks the Patriots are dead last in that category. It’s not just Gilmore that’s been the issue either. The Patriots defense as a group is also at the bottom of the barrel in defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average). The Patriots defense is so bad they drag the number two offense all they down to 22nd in total DVOA behind teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, not exactly AFC powerhouses. New England is now 2-2 but has been statistically dominated in three of their four games by Kansas City in Week 1, by Houston in Week 3 and by Carolina four days ago. The Pats should be 1-3 but it will take a lot more than one loss to scare the market off Tom Brady and company.
The case for the Patriots is superficial at best and just having Tom Brady isn’t enough. We’ve heard New England rarely plays poorly after a loss but previous results do not matter. However, a big win over New Orleans in Week 2 after getting crushed by the Chiefs is fresh in the market’s mind helping to support that flawed logic. In reality, the Pats probably shouldn’t even be favored in this spot but they are still way too popular to not be spotting points in just about every game they play. Holding court against the Super Bowl champs is a big game on any team’s schedule but add the bright lights of a prime time game and this could be the breakout game that brings the Bucs to the dance. The Patriots are the more flawed team here spotting road points on three day’s rest. Tampa is very worthy of a money line play here but we’ll play it safe and take the points.Comment
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