Saturday 10-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Jason Sharpe

Pittsburgh +12

The N.C. State Wolfpack have rattled off 5 straight wins coming into this game, with victories over the likes of Florida State and a nice win over Louisville last Thursday. Tough spot here, though, going on the road and facing a hungry Pittsburgh squad in this one. The Panthers have struggled a little bit this season as they lost a ton of players off last year's squad. They have been tough at home of late, having won 8 of their last 10 games there, and should be able to keep things close in this one. Take Pittsburgh plus the points.

[New York Knight]

Alan Harris

Texas Tech +3.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will look to move to 5-1 on the season when they hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, WV, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games following an ATS win, and they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also covered the number in five of their last six road games and they are an impressive 9-3 ATS in their last twelve games following a straight up win by 20 points or more. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss and they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus a team with a winning % of .500 or higher. They have also failed to cover the number in 13 of their last 18 games played in the month of October for whatever reason, and they are an awful 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games when facing a team with a winning record on the road. Throw in the fact that Texas Tech has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two schools and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we think they have a good chance to win outright in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

[New York Knight]

Raphael Esparza

Illinois -2.5

Memorial Stadium on Saturday early afternoon should see a home team 'W', and I see Illinois getting a much-needed conference win here. Last year Rutgers lost to the Illini at home 24-7, and I see the Scarlet Knights dropping back-to-back meetings to the Fighting Illini. Both teams come into this game struggling, but with Illinois getting this game at home I see them getting revenge after their last home game when Nebraska held them to 6 points. Rutgers is coming off a beat down two weeks ago to Ohio State 56-0, and I know Rutgers is coming off a bye week, but playing this game on the road the Knights again will struggle. Rutgers is 3-8 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and the Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS against conference opponents.

[New York Knight]

Harry Bondi

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3.5

Northern Illinois is a profitable 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games and since 1992 they are 71-41 (63%) ATS away from home. What’s more, Northern Illinois has covered 11 of its last 16 in conference play and has absolutely dominated Buffalo, winning nine in a row in the series straight up while covering seven of those games. Northern Illinois has topped the 40-point plateau in the last three meetings against Buffalo, including an easy 44-7 victory last season at home as a 24-point favorite. Making matters worse for the Bills is that they come in off a gut-wrenching 71-68 loss to Western Michigan in a game that featured seven overtime sessions. The Bills defense allowed 645 yards of total offense in that game and is battered and bruised coming into this week’s game. Look for the physical Huskies to pound away at a tired Buffalo team and come home with another road win.

[New York Knight]

Joe Everett

BYU / Mississippi St Over 48½

The Cougars scheme is the same as it has always been with a run-heavy approach that has a lot of elements of a pro-style system with junior Tanner Mangum operating from under center throwing to multiple tight ends out of 12, 13 and 22 personnel packages. They have a real hammer at runningback in 255 pound freshman Ula Tolutau and a great complimentary back in Squally Canada. Their offensive line features a number of 22 and 23 year old players post mission, so look for BYU to run early and often here with shots to leading receiver tight end Matt Bushman off of play action. The Bulldogs are a physical odd front that operates predominantly out of the 3-4 alignment and they are limiting opponents to just 21.6 points but they have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in both of their last two outings, as well as giving up 80 combined points in those games. Brigham Young is not an aggressive offense but they are dangerous with their physical running game.

The Bulldogs have an extremely strong dual threat quarterback in junior Nik Fitzgerald, who has run for five rushing touchdowns while throwing for eight scores. Mississippi State runs a zone read scheme that keeps defenses guessing if junior runningback Aeris Williams or Fitzgerald will emerge from the pit with the ball. Dan Mullens’ offenses have always thrived with a mobile passer running the show and while Fitzmagic has struggled the last two games, those were against Georgia and Auburn. The Cougars run a 4-3 base defense, they have a stout front four rotation and a stud linebacker in senior Fred Warner who leads the team in tackling with 51 combined stops on the year. BYU has holes in their secondary, they are prone to big plays on the back end and the Bulldogs have some speed receivers to take advantage of that; namely Keith Mixon and Deddrick Thomas who both average roughly 15 yards per catch.

The last time these two teams played, BYU won a 28-21 home game just last year so Mississippi State will certainly have revenge on their mind in this rematch. We have lost some value from the opener with the movement going up from 46½ to the 48½ total where it currently sits. The forecast in Starkville is an ideal 87 degrees with clear skies and with the homefield advantage as well as a very effective running threat at quarterback, I’ll call for a big Bulldogs blowout with a 38-17 total that should hit the over by the start of the fourth quarter.

Virginia / North Carolina Over 50½

The Cavaliers have really turned it on offensively with Kurt Benkert coming out of the woodwork to pass for 13 touchdowns in just five games. Robert Anae is running an up tempo system and their offensive line has really turned it on as of late with 128 rushing yards or more in each of their last three games. North Carolina’s defense is beyond bend but don’t break, they’ve broken and the overlying concern is their inability to stop the run with 745 rushing yards allowed in their last two games combined. Junior runningback Jordan Ellis already has 408 yards on the ground along with five rushing scores to go along with receiving touchdown.

Tar Heels co-offensive coordinators Gunter Brewer and Chris Kapilovic run a spread timing based offensive scheme that gets the football out fast and mixes in a lot of zone read concepts to take advantage of dual threat quarterback Chazz Surratt who has already rushed for four touchdowns and thrown for another six scores. While Virginia has held opponents to just 21.2 points per game, their defense has had issues stopping the pass after allowing six touchdowns through the air in their last four games. North Carolina has experienced a rash of injuries throughout their roster but most notably losing Austin Proehl was a real shot to this inexperienced wide receiver corps. However, redshirt sophomore Anthony Ratliff-Williams and Vanderbilt transfer playing well considering the conditions.

Although it will be overcast with a small percentage of rain, the weather forecast doesn’t appear to be an issue at a cloudy 80 degrees for game time in Chapel Hill. This series has been dominated by the Tar Heels who have won the last seven meetings and five of those seven have gone UNDER the number but four of those seven have also seen 50 or more points scored. The line has dropped significantly from 55 all the way down to 50½ and while there’s not much more room for this total to go, I’d still wait to play this game a little closer to kickoff for some closing line value. We’re looking for a big Virginia win with a 38-24 type of final in this ACC rivalry here.

Purdue / Wisconsin Over 50

Most would assume an UNDER with these two teams and their offensive identities, but both teams can score with Wisconsin averaging 40 points per game and Purdue has scored 28 or more points in four of their five games this year. The Boilermakers have been given a complete makeover on offense with the team controlling the line of scrimmage and keeping things simple for quarterbacks David Blough and Elijah Sindelar. Lafayette native Jackson Anthrop is leading the team in receiving as a true freshman and junior runningback DJ Knox will now have to lead the way with sophomore Tario Fuller out with a foot injury. Wisconsin’s odd front will create havoc in the backfield at home but they can be passed on, as Northwestern found out with their three passing touchdowns against the Badgers two weeks ago.

The Badgers are running the ball right over teams with star runningback Johnathan Taylor, what’s even more impressive is that the true freshman leads the entire Big-Ten with 767 rushing yards. Wisconsin has run for 234 yards or more in four of their five games to start the year and they have scored 31 or more points in every single outing thus far. The Badgers operate out of a pro style run-heavy scheme with a bevy of talented offensive linemen and an assortment of bailout options in the passing game for sophomore Alex Hornibrook. Their senior tight end Troy Fumagalli is as reliable as they come. He excels in short yardage and on third down, converting and keeping the chains moving despite having only nine fingers at birth. The Boilers also have a new look on defense with former WKU defensive assistant changing the culture and instilling a real physical mentality throughout that side of the ball.

There are some heavy winds in the forecast at 4:00pm for Camp Randall but that should affect the Badgers offensive gameplan and regardless of how the quarterbacks adjust, both of these teams will find ways to adjust. The line moved in our favor from 51½ to 50 total points, so there’s potential for this number to keep dropping as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Wisconsin has won eleven in a row in the series and in the last six meetings between these two teams, the OVER has gone 4-2 with five of the six seeing fifty or more points. This one won’t sail over the number but a final in the range or a 38-24 Wisconsin win is right where I expect this game to finish.

[New York Knight]

Wunderdog

Eastern Michigan/Army

Under 46.5

Army needed a big game last week, and going to Texas where they have played their best football over the years was just what the doctor ordered. It got the Black Knights to 4-2 on the season as they quest for a second straight Bowl game appearance. Army has run the flex-bone option for years, and it is no secret, but they have a lot of success, melt the clock and close games. The defense has usually lagged behind, until last year when they allowed just 19.8 points per game. They have come back this year to do just about the same thing as opponents score 19.2 points per game against them, which becomes 15.4 ppg if you take out the game vs. Ohio State. Eastern Michigan lost a lot from their offense of a year ago, but the defense is vastly improved, and all five of their games have played UNDER with no team topping the 27 point mark in those games. This will be a game with a fast moving clock, limited plays, and two rock solid defenses.

[New York Knight]

Bruce Marshall

NC State

Some Pitt backers are beginning to wonder if HC Pat Narduzzi is the second coming of the failed Foge Fazio regime of the mid '80s. Now Narduzzi has had to switch QBs again after USC transfer Max Browne went down with arm injury last week. And if NCS's gnarly DL and NFL-bound DE Bradley Chubbb can limit Lamar Jackson's damage as last week, doubt Browne's caddy DiNucci does much better. The heat has dissipated underneath Wolfpack HC Dave Doeren after five straight wins.

[New York Knight]

Andrew Lange

Hawaii -17

If there's a team ever in need of a bye week, it's the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State has played seven straight games and finally gets a break after this week's trip to Hawaii. The schedule at times has been daunting but the Spartans did open Mountain West play against three average to below average squads with two of those contests at home. They failed to put up much of a fight in any of the three. Against Utah State, SJSU was outgained by 428 yards. They allowed over 8 yards per play in a 41-13 loss to UNLV. And last week were held to 205 yards in a 27-10 home loss to Fresno State. The Spartans, who are trying to play up-tempo football, have turned the ball over 24 times and have a -9 turnover margin over their last three contests. With a bye week looming, they must first travel to face Hawaii, a team they lost to a home last season, 34-17. It’s a scenario where we could very easily see the Spartans “pack it in” if they get down early.

The Warriors haven't won a game since Week 2 but have really been up against it from a schedule perspective with three out of their last four on the road. The offense has had no trouble moving the football (6.69 yards per play) but the defense have been repeatedly gashed (1,176 yards allowed last two games). They've also dealt with various suspensions and the resignation of their offensive line coach. Saturday's game however is an ideal cure-all situation as the Warriors will have obvious advantages on both sides of the football. I look for Hawaii to jump out early in this one as the recommendation is to split your wager both first half -10 and full game -17.

[New York Knight]

STEPHEN NOVER

NCAA-F | Oct 14, 2017
Oklahoma vs. Texas

Texas +9

Oklahoma has been favored by double-digits against Texas in this Red River Rivalry matchup each of the last four years. The Longhorns have covered each time, including last year losing, 45-40. Texas is improved this season and better coached with the change from Charlie Strong to Tom Herman. The point spread is smaller to reflect that, but it's still above a touchdown. I believe that brings solid value to backing Texas. The Longhorns have recovered from their opening week debacle against Maryland. They haven't lost against the spread since then in four games yielding less than 14 points in regulation. Texas won at Iowa State, 17-7, two weeks ago. Oklahoma just lost, 38-31, as better than a four-touchdown home favorite against the Cyclones. That loss has to shake up the Sooners' confidence, if not cast a seed of doutbt about their invincibility. Texas has scored at least 40 points in three of its five games. Oklahoma has a banged-up secondary and lacks linebacker depth. Iowa State scored on its final five possessions against Oklahoma. Texas sophomore Collin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in college. He had 191 receiving yards against USC, which has a much better secondary than Oklahoma. The Sooners defense right now just can't be trusted. The Sooners need Baker Mayfield to come up big. He's certainly capable of that. Texas, though, is second in the Big 12 in sacks and in rush defense. I don't see Oklahoma running for 282 yards on Texas like it did in last year's game. This is always a physical, emotional game. Oklahoma is Texas' biggest rival. The Longhorns can make a huge statement with a victory here. I can easily envision a last-possession type of game so I'll take more than a touchdown.

[New York Knight]

RED DOG SPORTS

Soccer | Oct 14, 2017
Anzhi vs. FC Ural

FC Ural -125

Free soccer play takes place on Saturday in Russia. Take FC Ural -125.
Anzhi 0
FC Ural 1

[New York Knight]

FREDDY WILLS

Cincinnati +24

This line is a bit high, South Florida really hasn’t played well offensively or up to expectations this year. Their defense has been completely dominant and has resulted in them being huge favorites, but South Florida has had the #129th ranked strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has already faced Michigan, Navy, and Miami Ohio all on the road. Then they faced Marshall and Central Florida at home all good teams. South Florida hasn’t faced a top 60 offense or defense. Cinci has already faced the #2 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense at different points this season.

Last week against Central Florida, Cincinnati lost 51-23, but they only allowed 515 yards which usually doesn’t equate to 51 points. Central Florida’s offense at this point far exceeds South Florida. Cinci’s offense was able to put up 391 yards and scored 23 points, and I think they can have some success against South Florida who gave up 31 points to East Carolina last week and 20+ points several times this season to teams who aren’t very good offensively.

South Florida’s offense is extremely one dimensional, and it is the reason they struggle in the red zone. Cincinnati has been very good in red zone play allowing 57% TD percentage and they have been very good allowing 36% on third downs. South Florida 57% in the red zone for a TD% and just 43% on third down offense. Both numbers you’d expect to be higher given the competition they have faced with defenses ranked an average 90th in yards per play allowed. South Florida is also highly penalized at 10 per game and have relied heavily on 16 forced turnovers to get their big victories.

Luke Fickell is a good coach taking over here, and a good defensive mind. Take out the Navy game and this defense has been good against the run. With South Florida’s Quinton Flowers completing just 52.4% of his passes that makes the game plan a bit easier here.

[New York Knight]

PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 10-14-17

San Diego State -6

[New York Knight]

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER

CFL | Oct 14, 2017
Toronto vs. Edmonton

Toronto+7½ -125

FREE CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Road dogs of +4 to +13 and Home dogs between -1 and +2 that finished last season at least 2 games below .500 are 88-44-4 ATS. Active on the Argonauts this week!

[New York Knight]

Teddy Covers

UCLA -2

Teddy is primed to deliver the goods in the NFL this week, locked and loaded with three rock solid Sunday winners along with four strong college football winners for Saturday! Don't miss a single 'right side' cash!

Bye weeks are very meaningful in college football. Banged up players get a chance to get healthy. Coaches have extra time to shore up flaws and prepare gameplans. Players get a much needed break and tend to come back with full focus. As we approach the college football season’s halfway point, we should take note to adjust power ratings up a notch or two for teams coming off their break.

UCLA is in that exact situation this week. The Bruins faced a brutal non-conference slate, including Texas A&M and Memphis. They opened their PAC-12 slate with Stanford and Colorado. The Arizona team they’ll face on Saturday Night is as weak as any foe they’ve seen all year, with the lone exception of Hawaii. And it’s surely worth noting that the Bruins beat Hawaii 56-23, covering the spread as 24 point favorites.

The Bruins defense currently ranks #128 in the country against the run, allowing 284 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry, truly awful numbers. But those season long stats don’t tell the true story of what we can expect from UCLA on Saturday. Injured defensive starters Jaelan Phillips, Lokeni Toailoa and Dechaun Holiday are all expected back on the field this week; a SIGNIFICANT upgrade for their Front Seven on ‘D’.

That matters, a lot, because Arizona might have found themselves a QB last week. Sophomore Khalil Tate was mostly a running threat as a true frosh last year, attempting only 45 pass attempts for the season. Tate was injured over the summer and didn’t get a chance to compete for the starting job. But he’s healthy now and coming off a truly brilliant starting debut, rushing for more than 300 yards while compiling a QB rating of 217.2, throwing only one incomplete pass all day.

Can Tate do it again, or is he just a one hit wonder? Here’s what UCLA head coach Jim Mora had to say: “It’s like playing a wildcat offense with a quarterback that can throw. We have to play hard but play with patience, play with speed but play with patience, and that’s sometimes a difficult combination. But we’ve been working really hard on it, and our guys have a great understanding of what we’re up against.”

UCLA’s defense should be better with three key starters back. They’ve got film on Tate to work with and extra time to prep for Rich Rodriguez’s attack. The Bruins own offense is loaded with quality skill position talent, and QB Josh Rosen is still very much alive to be the first QB chosen in the draft next spring. And Arizona’s defense is a long, long way from being an elite unit, capable of shutting the Bruins down.

Let’s not forget about the head-to-head matchup record between Jim Mora and RichRod! In five previous meetings between these two head coaches, Mora is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by an AVERAGE of more than 19 points per game. Now that’s a track record worthy of support!

[New York Knight]

Matt Josephs

Nevada +24½

The Wolf Pack are flying high after picking up their first win of the season last time out against Hawaii. Nevada showed some offensive balance and just enough defense to win that one. Colorado State is coming off three straight weeks on the road and there's always an adjustment to playing at home early on. The Rams also have a road trip at New Mexico next week so maybe focus could be an issue. CSU's defense can be beaten. Nevada has covered 10 of their last 19 conference games. I think this one is a bit too high.