Service Plays Saturday 10/21/17

[BettingBruiser]

Jason Sharpe 8 Unit Play Take #378 Tulane +11.5 over South Florida (7:00pm est):
The Tulane Green Wave are one of best coached teams in the country as 2nd year head coach Willie Fritz has really elevated the level of play at this program. Tulane covered the point spread in 4 of their first 5 games and was coming off it's best game of the Fritz era going into last weekend when they laid a big egg on the road at Florida International losing 23-10. That loss should help us here in this one as you can expect Fritz to have this group focused and fired up for a shot at knocking off this undefeated foe. Keep in mind also that Tulane is a perfect 3-0 straight-up and against the spread at home this season as well.

South Florida remains one of the unbeaten teams left in CFB but their undefeated start to the year hasn't looked overly impressive as they've faced one of the easiest schedules in college football so far. The five FBS teams that the Bulls have faced this season have a combined 9-25 record overall and NONE have a .500 record or better making this game against 3-3 Tulane their toughest game to date this season. USF has a 1st year head coach in Charlie Strong and I think this team is down a notch from last year's USF team that went 11-2 overall.

Take Tulane plus the points here.

[BettingBruiser]

Indian Cowboy 3-Unit Play. #322. Take Over 65.5 SMU vs. Cincinnati (Saturday @ 4pm est)

Cincinnati will finally get to score some points in this game. They are only backed by 30% of the public and we love that. Cincinnati comes off a game where they scored just 3 points against an elite South Florida defense who is 3rd in the nation in rush defense and one of the best defenses in the nation. Now, they face a SMU team who is 104th in the nation in defense but who is 11th in the nation in offense - and a team who has revenge from losing 41-3 last year and will want to put up a ton of points compared to their 3 points they put up last year. Consequently, this game looks like a shootout and consequently likely goes over.

3-Unit Play. #377. Take Under 54 South Florida vs. Tulane (Saturday @ 7pm est)

You might be aware that South Florida has the 12th best defense in the Country but you might not be aware that they are the 90th best passing offense. Something that Tulane does do well is is defend the Pass as they are top 40 in the nation in pass defense. Plus, Tulane loves to run the ball as they are top 10 in rush offense but that is what South Florida does well as they are top 5 in the nation in rush defense. This is the reason why this total is so low today as both these teams likely struggle on offense, this is a fantastic public fade as most of the public is on the Over and consequently this game likely goes under the posted total.

[BettingBruiser]

Vernon Croy 6-Unit Play. Take #390 Alabama -35.5 over Tennessee (Saturday, October 21st at 3:30 PM ET)

Take Alabama ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and there will be no stopping the running game of this Tide offense at home Saturday. The Vols have allowed 242.8 rushing yards per game this season and 517.5 yards per game on the road this season. Alabama's ability to run the ball with ease will also open up their passing game. This game will get out of hand and the Vols do not have the offense that can come back against the best defense in the country that has allowed just 10.1 ppg this season, and just 7.7 ppg against conference opponents. Alabama has put up an average of 47.2 ppg at home this season and they have out-scored conference opponents by an average of 40.5 ppg this season. The Vols have averaged just 9.7 ppg against conference opponents this season while also averaging just 4 ppg at halftime. Georgia put up 41 points while holding the Vols scoreless and that was a Vols home game where they turned the ball over 4 times, and this Bama defense creates turnovers with opponents averaging 2 per game against them this season. The only possible way the Vols cover this spread is if Bama let's up in the second-half which I do not see happening as they are on a mission against conference opponents this season. The Vols are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and the Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Play Alabama ATS.

[BettingBruiser]

Doc Sports 6 Unit Play. #375 Take Kentucky Wildcats +12.5 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (Saturday 4 pm SEC Network) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE WEEK. The SEC is pretty much Alabama, then three teams vying for the second spot and then everybody else. Both teams fit into the latter category and thus this is way too many points to be giving up. Mississippi has been blown out in two of their last three games and Kentucky is a rock solid 5-1 on the season with just a one-point loss to Florida. Both teams have strong defenses and Kentucky will enter this game off a bye. Kentucky is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. It is not too often more than 50% of the money comes in on the underdog but that is the case in this game and it is with good reason.

[BettingBruiser]

Harris 5 Unit Play. Take #355/356 Michigan vs Penn St Under 45 (7:30 PM, Saturday, October 21, ABC)

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Michigan Wolverines hit the road to take on the Penn St Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA on Saturday night. Michigan has posted a perfect 3-0-1 record to the under in their last four games following a straight up win and they are also an excellent 3-1-1 to the under when facing a team with a winning % of .500 or better. Penn St has been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have stayed under the number in seven of their last ten games played in the month of October and they are 5-1 to the under in their last six games overall. Throw in the fact that Michigan is 4-1-1 to the under in their last six games following a game where they allowed less than 100 yards on the ground while Penn St is 4-1 to the under after allowing less than 20 points in their last game and that's where we have our play as we expect both defenses to step up and points to be at a premium in Happy Valley on Saturday night.





6 Unit Play. Take #402 Notre Dame -3.5 over USC (7:30 PM, Saturday, October 21, NBC)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to extend their win streak to five games when they take on the USC Trojans at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN on Saturday night. The Fighting Irish have posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games overall and they have gone an excellent 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games following a bye week. They have also covered the number in four of their last five home games when facing a team with a winning record and they are a lights out 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games played in the month of October. The Trojans, on the other hand, have really struggled in the spot they are in here as they have gone just 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five versus a team with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the number in four straight games following a straight up win and they are an Awful 3-9 ATS in their last twelve road games. Throw in the fact that the favorite is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five head to head meetings between the two schools with the home team covering the last four and we're going to lay the points here with ND to get the home win and cover in South Bend on Saturday night.





7 Unit Play. Take #411/412 Colorado vs Washington St Under 53.5 (10:45 PM, Saturday, October 21, ESPN)

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Colorado Buffaloes hit the road to take on the Washington St Cougars at Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA on Saturday night. The Buffaloes have posted a perfect 4-0 record to the under in their last four road games where they faced a team with a winning record at home and they are 5-1 to the under in their last six games following a straight up win. They have also stayed under the total in seven of their last ten games following an ATS loss and they are 12-5 to the under in their last seventeen games overall. The Cougars have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four games overall and they are also a perfect 5-0-1 to the under in their last six games following a straight up loss. They have also gone under the number in four straight home games versus a team with a winning record on the road and they are 3-1-1 to the under in their last twelve conference games. Throw in the fact that Colorado has gone 13-5 to the under in their last eighteen Pac-12 games while Wazzu is a lights out 15-6-1 to the under in their last 22 home contests and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a bit of a surprising defensive battle in Pullman on Saturday night.

[BettingBruiser]

Mike Davis 6-Unit Play. Take #346 Duke -8 over Pittsburgh (Saturday, October 21st at 12:20 p.m.)

Revenge. Pitt throttled Duke last year to the tune of 56-14. I remember. Pittsburgh remembers. And most importantly, Duke remembers. This is a game that has been circled on their calendar since the schedule came out and I look for them to put their best foot forward in this game. Duke has some talent on both sides of the ball and they have had some really good moments so far this season. They lost to FSU by 7 points last week and they lost to UVA by 7 the week before. They beat a decent Northwestern team by 24 points in the opener and this Pitt team isn't as good as Northwestern. Pittsburgh is in a transition year and they are playing a pissed off Duke team. On top of that, they are really banged up as a football team. Simply put: this is a very tough spot for the Panthers and I look for Duke to exact some revenge and maybe do it in a big way. Keep your eye on the offensive play calling of Duke as I look for them to use some misdirection and keep this Pittsburgh defense guessing. Pitt's defense isn't as disciplined as the coaches would like them to be and they don't have the talent to make up for it. Duke gets their revenge in a big way.

[BettingBruiser]

Ferringo 5-Unit Play. Take #356 Penn State (-9.5) over Michigan (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 21)

This number is high for a reason. I know that the public loves Michigan in this spot. But I definitely do not. I have felt that this team was overrated from Day 1 and I think that they are going to get exposed a bit in this situation. Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. And when you look at their schedule this team really hasn't played anyone and they haven't beaten anyone of note. They are also without their starting quarterback and this young Wolverines team is going into the toughest environment that they've seen yet. Penn State wants revenge for a 39-point beat down that they took last September. And I think that they are going to get it. The Nittany Lions have been crushing teams. That includes beating that same Indiana team that just took Michigan to overtime by 31 points. Penn State is 5-1 ATS this year and they are on a stunning 14-2 ATS run overall. That tells me that no matter how good you think this team is - they are actually better! The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in Happy Valley and they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games. This is supposed to be a rebuilding year and a learning year for the young Wolverines. I think they are going to get taught a lesson in this one.



5-Unit Play. Take #374 Missouri (-13.5) over Idaho (Noon)

Give me a break. Look, I know that Barry Odom is a loser coach. And Missouri has a pathetic defense. But these guys aren't THAT bad. They've played five straight legit as hell teams - South Carolina, Purdue, Auburn, at Kentucky and at Georgia - over the last five weeks. Missouri still has an explosive offense and SEC-caliber athletes. All of that is more than I can say for Idaho. This team isn't even going to be an FBS program as of next year. They are in the death rattle. They've beaten just one FBS team this year and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Appalachian State. Idaho had a 20-7 lead going into the fourth quarter in that one and was outscored 16-0 in the final stanza. I don't expect them to be up for this game at all - a random nonconference tilt in the middle of league play. Missouri should be focused for it because they need something - anything - good to happen. They need to snap this five-game losing streak and they should do it in blowout fashion here.





5-Unit Play. Take #402 Notre Dame (-3.5) over USC (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 21)

I've been betting against USC all season. I am not going to stop now. Frankly, I just don't see what the big deal is about this Trojans team and I don't think that they are all that good. I give them credit for earning a tough win over Utah last week. But that one simply came down to a two-point conversion and could've easily gone the other way. Also, the Trojans were two-touchdown favorites! USC is on a 0-5 ATS slide and going back to last year they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They barely beat Texas, barely beat Utah, and lost to Washington State. I think that Notre Dame is better than all those teams. The Irish have been wrecking people, winning their last four games by an average of 27 points per game. Three of those were on the road. Notre Dame's only loss this year came against Georgia. You know, Top 5 Georgia. And watching that game I felt that the Irish were actually the better team and Georgia was very fortunate to escape South Bend with a victory. USC isn't as good as Georgia. And they're not as good as Notre Dame. The Irish have had two weeks to prepare for this game. While USC now has to shift gears from thinking about a Pac-12 title to a nonconference game. Notre Dame also has a solid revenge motivation after getting blasted in their season finale last year by the Trojans. The home team has won four straight in this series and the favorite is 5-0 ATS. I think Notre Dame is flat-out better than USC and I think they will prove it in this spot with a 7-10 point victory.

[BettingBruiser]

Eastman 8-Unit Play. Take #343 Purdue (-9) over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 21)

This is my College Football Game of the Year.

I think that this game is a mismatch. This Purdue team is one of the most improved teams in the country. New coach Jeff Brohm has done a great job with this team. They are 5-1 ATS and have blowout wins over teams like Missouri and Minnesota and tough losses against Louisville and Wisconsin. This team is running a fast-paced offense and I don't think that Rutgers is going to be able to keep up in this one. Rutgers is one of the worst programs in college football. They are just 1-4 against FBS teams this year and they are coming off their first win over an FBS team, which they got last week at Illinois. Rutgers has been outgained by an average of around 180 yards per game over their last three games and they were outgained in that win over Illinois. The Scarlet Knights are just No. 119 in total offense and No. 121 in passing offense. I do not think that they will be able to keep up with this Boilermakers offense. Purdue's numbers are not great. But they have faced a very tough schedule this year. One of the toughest in college football. Rutgers is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against Big Ten teams. They have not been very competitive against teams in their league the last two years. Purdue is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after a loss. I think that Purdue will get up early and I don't see the Scarlet Knights being able to score enough to keep up. The Boilermakers should take this one 34-17.

5-Unit Play. Take #324 Florida Atlantic (-3.5) over North Texas (5 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 21)

I am going with the Owls in this one. Lane Kiffin has his team playing better. They have won three of their last four games and those three wins came by an average of over 30 points per game. The Owls are on a 4-1 ATS run and they have revenge against the Mean Green for an ugly loss last year. North Texas has won three straight games. But they are coming off a hard-fought rivalry game against Texas-San Antonio where they won as home underdogs. I think it is going to be hard for UNT to lay as well this week. North Texas is just 7-15 ATS on the road. Florida Atlantic is coming off a bye week. I think that Kiffin will have used his extra time for preparation wisely and the Owls will be ready to play their best game yet. North Texas is just No. 102 in scoring defense and is giving up nearly 33 points per game. I think that Florida Atlantic will be able to control the ball with their running game and will score another home win in this one.

[BettingBruiser]

Spartan | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 21 2017 7:30PM
402 Notre Dame -4.0(-110) Sportsbook.ag vs 401 Southern Cal triple-dime bet

Analysis: I love the Irish in this game fellas. Well obviously. I've played on Notre Dame twice thus far and they have not let me down. Frankly this is a better football team than I projected them to be and on the flip side the Trojans have not met my expectations. So why am I sticking my neck out here on Kelly and his Irish? Fair and valid question. We all saw the anarchy last weekend and I am pretty certain this Notre Dame team was paying close attention as well. The door is actually now open should they be willing and able to kick it in to make the playoff. That did not seem possible not long ago but things can change quickly as we are seeing. They did drop that tough game to Georgia but as we can clearly see now is that loss is not so bad as the Bulldogs are clearly the real deal. The rest of their schedule is a death march and if they can navigate it unbeaten the rest of the way I don't see any way they can be left outside looking in with a resume like that. One other item of significant note is they have the revenge factor coming into play here. The Trojans spanked the Irish last season 45-27 in Los Angeles. I remember that well because we were betting USC in that game. Not this time. They are coming into this thing off a bye week so have had plenty of time to game plan for this revenge game. Night game and the house will be electric. While I respect the Trojans from an athletic standpoint as much as anyone with the exception of Bama I also see a team coming off a tough battle with Utah and a team that has not been hitting on all cylinders all season long. I think USC gets too much respect sometimes due to the name and I think that is the case here. And for the all the blow and bluster the Trojans carry the stubborn fact is this, they have actually now only covered the number in three of their last twelve games on the road. And now they are playing Notre Dame on their turf in prime time. I trust the Irish here. I am going with Notre Dame as my 2017 game of the year

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

2*CHEL/WATFORD (SAT@7:30AM)
Chelsea -1.5

4*MANC/BRUNLEY(SAT@10AM)
Man City -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preferred Picks

Top CFB Play - Oregon + 6.5

[Iowethe man]

Chris “The Bear” Fallica (Season Record 26-21-1) on podcast plays College gameday record 12-6-2

Air Force at Nevada – Nevada (+6.5)
Indiana at Michigan St. – Indiana (+6.5)
LSU at Ole Miss – Ole Miss (+6.5)
Michigan at Penn St. – Michigan (+9.5)

Oklahoma St. at Texas – Texas (+7)
Southern California at Notre Dame – Southern California (+3.5)
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech – Wake Forest (+6.5)

West Virginia at Baylor – Baylor (+9.5)

[Bear's Fan]

Maddux
20 Tole - 14
10 C Fla - 6'
10 UNLV - 3
10 Lsvlle + 7
10 Fres + 10
10 Mo Ov 62'
10 Ok St - 7
10 USC Ov 61'
10 So Ms + 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todd Fuhrman 16-2 overall CFB 9-2/NFL 7-0

Arizona -3
Tulane +11.5 said chance to win outright...said the same about UCONN last week
Wake Forest +5

no NFL this week

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Double Plays
Miami Fla. -17 Syracuse
Wisconsin -24 1/2 Maryland

Single Plays
SMU -7 1/2 Cincinnati
North Texas +3 1/2 Florida Atlantic
Texas Tech -7 Iowa State
Troy -7 1/2 Georgia State
Ohio -19 Kent State
Toledo -16 1/2 Akron
Wake Forest +6 Georgia Tech
Michigan +9 1/2 Penn State
App. State -23 1/2 Coastal Carolina
Oregon +6 1/2 UCLA
Mississippi +7 LSU
Colorado +10 Washington State
Fresno +7 1/2 San Diego State