Tuesday 10-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Monster Sports Picks

NHL Tampa Bay +110

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National Sports Service

NBA Bulls +14.5

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The Sports Consensus

MLB Astros under 7

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Insider Sports Report

NBA Magic -4.5

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Micah Roberts

Dodgers -170

So happy Clayton Kershaw is finally starting a World Series game. Why wouldn't he be up for the moment he's been waiting for his entire life? I expect him to be the same dominant starter we've seen all season. The Dodgers went 26-4 behind him this season, but it's not often I get to lay such a cheap price on him. The best starter with the best bullpen has been an almost unbeatable combo. Dodgers take Game 1.

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Kenny White

Astros +155

As mentioned in my total writeup, Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average since his return from the DL. His ERA is 3.53 with 11 home runs allowed in 51 innings. Kershaw has been just 15 cents better than the average pitcher over those 9 outings with his best start coming against the San Francisco Giants. Kershaw has struggled to get to the 7th inning against playoff-caliber teams. Even though this is a bet against Kershaw, I do like the way Dallas Keuchel is pitching. For the season and over his last five away starts, he has been 40 cents better than the average pitcher on the road. Corey Seager returns for the Dodgers, but it has been two weeks since he has seen live pitching. Play on Houston as a big underdog.

Astros / Dodgers Over 7

The temperature is going to be in the mid 80's at first pitch with very little humidity. With this kind of weather, the ball will carry very well instead of just hanging up in the thick night air. Clayton Kershaw has been slightly above average over his last nine starts since returning from the DL. In 51 innings he has allowed 47 hits, 20 earned runs and 11 home runs. WOW! Eleven home runs in 51 innings for an ERA of 3.53. Dallas Keuchel was far better at home than on the road; his batting average against was .187 at home and .245 away. Even his two playoff home starts were far better than his away start at Yankee Stadium. Now let's get to the hitters. Plain and simple, both teams hit lefties better than righties. Go Over at this great price.

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Larry Hartstein

Dodgers -170

The Astros have won one of their last seven games at Dodger Stadium and I see that trend continuing, at least for Game 1. Dallas Keuchel has been somewhat hittable on the road down the stretch. I'll back Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who are getting SS Corey Seager back.

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Bruce Marshall

Knicks vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -7.5

Not the start to the season that they were envisioning in Boston, losing first two out of the chute as well as key offseason FA addition Gordon Hayward, who lasted only a few minutes on opening night at Cleveland before breaking his ankle, likely to be lost for the season. Fortunately for Celtics, they get a chance to get well vs. a Knicks side they won and covered three of four against a season ago. Knicks seem deluded in their determination to set a faster tempo sans Carmelo, not to mention no longer worrying about now-departed Phil Jackson looking over HC Jeff Hornacek’s shoulder and expecting the Knicks to master the triangle. Hornacek wants to run, but even minus Hayward, Boston should be able to capitalize with other new addition Kyrie Irving relishing a chance to get up and down the court.

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Rob Vinciletti

Astros vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers

Home teams on the blind in game 1 of the world series are a solid 65-43. LA just took down the defending champs without arguably their best player and they have Kershaw going tonight. In his home starts the Dodgers are 14-2 and he has a 2.82 home Era and a 2.38 career Era vs Houston. The Dodgers spell him with a home bullpen Era that is 2.87. LA is 9-1 this season at home vs N.L. Teams. Houston is off an emotional game 7 home win over NYY. They have Keuchel going and he has a 3.77 road Era which is good but nearly a full run higher than Kershaw home Era. The Astros are 0-5 as a road dog from +125 to +175 and have lost 7 of the last 8 as a post season road dog. This season they are 0-3 as a road dog vs a lefty and scored just 2 runs in those 3 games. They follow Keuchel with a road bullpen Era that is nearly 5. LA has won 6 of the last 7 at home vs Houston. Look for the Dodgers to take the opener.

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Marc Lyle

Pelicans vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -4½

I was going to release this as a premium play but I figured I would give it out tonight for free. This is Portland's first home game of the season so we already know they are going to show up for this one. The Pelicans have one win on the season and that was against the Lakers. In the 3rd quarter the Pelicans gave up a 20 pint lead but went on to win 119-112. If They come out and play that way tonight Lillard and company are going to absolutely smoke them. I have the Blazers winning this game by at least 7 points and the line is moving at the current time.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Series - Houston +146 over L.A. DODGERS

For the first time in a long time, what might very well be the best two teams in baseball are, well, holding the titles as the two best teams in baseball. The pennant winners are more than deserving of their achievements: one club boasts the best record in baseball, the other is just a game shy of holding the second-best mark. As a result, we’ll be treated to what should be the best baseball you’ll see all season, played between two supremely talented clubs that are as good as it gets in all facets of the game. That’s what the World Series is about and frankly, we’re fortunate to witness it all in high-def in our living rooms.

To get it started, there’s nothing like a matchup between Cy Young award-winning southpaws to kick off the first World Series since 1970 to feature two 100-win teams. Since the beginning of the 2014 season, Clayton Kershaw (1.99) is the only starting pitcher with an ERA below 2.00, and Dallas Keuchel (3.15) has the third-best ERA in the American League during that time behind only Corey Kluber (2.83) and Chris Sale (2.99). During the regular season, the Astros (.813) and the Dodgers (.789) each had the second-best OPS against left-handed pitching in their respective leagues, so even southpaws as great as Keuchel and Kershaw have their work cut out for them. Keuchel has never faced the Dodgers before and Kershaw’s lone start against the Astros since 2013 came in 2015, so there’s little in the way of matchup-based track records to go on.

Lineups (AVG/OBP/SLG)

Astros:
CF-R George Springer (.283/.367/.522)
RF-L Josh Reddick (.314/.363/.484)
2B-R Jose Altuve (.346/.410/.547)
SS-R Carlos Correa (.315/.391/.550)
LF-S Marwin Gonzalez (.303/.377/.530)
3B-R Alex Bregman (.284/.352/.475)
DH-S Carlos Beltran (.231/.283/.383)
1B-R Yulieski Gurriel (.299/.332/.486)
C-L Brian McCann (.241/.323/.436)

Houston’s lineup scored the most runs in baseball and had the fewest strikeouts. That’s pretty much the gist of it. This is a club with freakish offensive ability up and down the order, displaying dangerous pop at all slots and never letting up. Sure, the whole lineup wasn’t clicking against Yankees in the ALCS (namely Reddick and his 1-for-25 cold streak), but Houston has plenty of plug-and-play options off the bench and, even against some of Los Angeles’ premium arms, they’ll be a force.

Oh, and here’s where the Astros really get you: Much has been made of home-field advantage this postseason, but the Astros have been unbelievably good hitters on the road. Scoring nearly 100 runs more than the second-best offensive team away from home, this lineup isn’t going to be any easier to neutralize while in Los Angeles. That doesn’t mean they’re any easier of an opponent in Houston, though—the Astros are undefeated in the bandbox they call home this postseason. Damned if you have to pitch against this offense at home, equally damned when they’re on the road. Good luck.

Dodgers:
CF-R Chris Taylor (.288/.354/.496)
SS-L Corey Seager (.295/.375/.479)
3B-R Justin Turner (.322/.415/.530)
1B-L Cody Bellinger (.267/.352/.581)
RF-R Yasiel Puig (.263/.346/.487)
C-R Austin Barnes (.289/.408/.486)
2B-L Chase Utley (.236/.324/.405)
LF-L Curtis Granderson (.212/.323/.452)

The Astros will get you with quality bats up and down the order, but the Dodgers go with the “try to make it through our front four, we dare ya” approach. The top half of this order is simply impenetrable—if you’re lucky enough to get one stud out, good luck retiring the other three. With Taylor, Turner, and Bellinger all clicking (and Seager now healthy), it could be a long series for Astros pitching. And then there’s Puig, who’s slashing a casual .414/.514/.655 this postseason. The bottom few aren’t quite as terrifying, but there might not be a more dangerous top half in baseball.

As pretty as this lineup looks, though, there’s a very good chance you’re going to be looking at a different set of players every night. Sure, continuity counts for something but there are plenty other lineup permutations that are just as dominant and the Dodgers’ platoon-based approach helped produce a top-five OPS against lefties during the regular season. Houston has only one southpaw in the rotation, but it’s Dallas Keuchel.

Benches (AVG, OBP, SLG)

Astros:
C-R Evan Gattis (.263/.311/.457)
OF-R Cameron Maybin (.186/.226/.441)
1B-R Tyler White (.279/.328/.525)
C-L Juan Centeno (.231/.286/.346)

The Astros bring legitimate pop off the bench with Gattis and White, both of whom may see more playing time than expected if Reddick continues his poor play. Centeno plays the classic third catcher role of affording Houston additional flexibility in using Gattis, while Maybin could be used as a defensive replacement late in games.

Dodgers:
C-S Yasmani Grandal (.247/.308/.459)
2B-R Logan Forsythe (.224/.351/.327)
UT-R Enrique Hernandez (.215/.308/.421)
OF-L Andre Ethier (.235/.316/.441)
C-R Kyle Farmer (.300/.300/.350)

The Dodgers have the luxury of two excellent options behind the plate in Barnes and Grandal. Farmer’s unlikely to see much game time, but his presence allows Los Angeles to use their top two catchers in the same game without the fear of Yasiel Puig: Emergency Catcher. Forsythe and Hernandez could see starts in Game 1 against Keuchel, but their utility is likely limited to southpaws in this series. Then again, Kike may be awarded with additional playing time given that handy little three-homer game he ripped off in the NLCS.

Starting Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)

Astros:
LHP Dallas Keuchel (146, 2.90, 2.65)
RHP Justin Verlander (206, 3.36, 3.24)
RHP Lance McCullers (119, 4.25, 2.77)
RHP Charlie Morton (147, 3.62, 3.46)

The Dodgers are going to have a hell of a time trying to beat Keuchel and Verlander is going to be just as tough; he was unhittable for the Astros since a deadline trade and carried that incredible performance into the postseason. Although the final two Houston starters remain unconfirmed in this series, it’s likely to be McCullers and Morton in some order. McCullers and his constant stream of curveballs from hell are going to be fun to watch in this series, while Morton’s been hit-or-miss thus far in the postseason.

Dodgers:
LHP Clayton Kershaw (175, 2.31, 3.30)
LHP Rich Hill (136, 3.32, 4.16)
RHP Yu Darvish (187, 3.86, 3.08)
LHP Alex Wood (152, 2.72, 3.44)

Penciled in by the Dodgers for the first three World Series games are Kershaw, Hill, and Darvish, with Wood a solid bet to be their fourth starter. Although Los Angeles is disadvantaged by starting the hapless Kershaw in the postseason (please read with heavy sarcasm), their final three starters bring the heat with a potentially dominant slew of pitching. While Houston has the offensive advantage in this series, the Dodgers have the better, deeper bullpen. That’s really the only clear advantage the Dodgers have. We’ll put Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers and Morton up against Kershaw, Hill, Darvish and Wood and take back near 7½-5 every time.

Relief Pitchers (IP, ERA, xERA)

Astros:
RHP Ken Giles (63, 2.30, 3.20)
RHP Chris Devenski (81, 2.68, 3.40)
RHP Luke Gregerson (61, 4.57, 3.40)
RHP Joe Musgrove (109, 4.77, 5.76)
LHP Francisco Liriano (97, 5.66, 5.39)
RHP Will Harris (45, 2.98, 3.75)
RHP Lance McCullers (119, 4.25, 3.52)

Although the Astros have the inferior on-paper bullpen in this series, that’s more of a testament to the Dodgers’ bullpen than anything else. Giles remains an elite closer, and although the fatigued Devenski isn’t quite his 2016 self, he’s still a multi-inning weapon for manager A.J. Hinch. Harris has been hittable this postseason, but he’s generally very good as well. The one weakness here is the lack of a dependable southpaw, as their lone lefty is Liriano, who’s currently walking as many as he’s striking out. That’ll put the Astros in a tough position against powerful lefties like Seager and Bellinger

Dodgers:
RHP Kenley Jansen (68, 1.32, 2.34)
RHP Brandon Morrow (44, 2.06, 3.17)
LHP Tony Watson (67, 3.38, 5.63)
RHP Kenta Maeda (134, 4.22, 3.89)
LHP Tony Cingrani (43, 4.22, 5.25)
RHP Pedro Baez (64, 2.95, 5.17)
RHP Ross Stripling (74, 3.75, 4.03)
RHP Josh Fields (57, 2.84, 4.34)

Apparently, Maeda is unhittable out of the bullpen. No, we’re serious. His postseason resume in relief thus far: five innings, zero hits, zero walks, zero runs, and seven strikeouts. The same ol’ Maeda, but with 95 mph fastballs, is pretty damn good, but he may not even be the third-best reliever in this stacked bullpen. Jansen is, y’know, Jansen, and Morrow’s excellent as well. The rest of the bullpen isn’t quite as good, but with the final two-plus innings on lock and Maeda looming as a fireman, the late innings could be an offensive dead zone for Houston.

Managers

With most of the managerial hirings this offseason, the clear priority is to find a sabermetrically-inclined mind, and here we’ll see two of the best in the business when it comes to that aspect of the game. Following the leads of their forward-thinking front offices, Dave Roberts and A.J. Hinch have both shown a willingness to make the analytically-backed moves in their tenures. It’s hard to pin down an advantage here, so we won’t, but the two are both very solid skippers who are unlikely to make many head-scratchers this series.

Defense

When it comes to defense, the leading headline for the Dodgers is their excellent duo behind the plate—both Grandal and Barnes are top-notch framers. The rest of the defense isn’t noteworthy in terms of reputations, but there are no apparent weaknesses and the Dodgers led MLB in Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE) thanks in part to excellent positioning. Be warned, though: a hundred columnists already have a mad-lib style hit-piece ready to run as soon as Puig overthrows a cutoff man.

The Astros’ solid infield defense will be particularly important in this series, as they’re sure to be busy given their staff’s AL-high 47.3 percent ground-ball rate. The outfield defense made all of the routine plays (and then some) against the Yankees in the ALCS, and they should be on their game yet again in the World Series. Again, these might be the two best teams in baseball. The Astros certainly have the advantage on offense, but the Dodgers have the upper hand when it comes to both their starting pitchers and relievers.

If the Astros and their deadly 1-2 punch of Keuchel/Verlander can steal the first two games, it’s going to be a tough climb for the Dodgers. Still, it can’t be overstated that Los Angeles has Clayton Kershaw. Plus, Darvish likely has the edge over whichever pitcher he faces in Game 3.

We love that the Astros were put to the test when they lost three straight in New York and came home with their backs to the wall. That sort of resiliency can’t be overstated and we like the Astros ability to manufacture runs should it come down to that. During the regular season, the Astronauts stole 55 bases while the Dodgers stole just 36. We can break it down a million ways but it’s really going to be about which teams gets the bounces at the right time. It’s such a close series, thus, if we’re sticking to playing value, the Astros have just as good a chance of winning as do the Dodgers and it’s for that reason we have to grab the value and play the Astronauts. Enjoy.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

VEGAS +146 over Chicago

Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.

OT included. Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge that Vegas might end up being a difficult city for the opposition to get a win at. Perhaps Vegas will redefine “home-ice advantage”. What we know for sure is that a bunch of teams have already come in here and lost and Chicago might be next. What we also know is that the fans have embraced this team and the players have embraced the town. The Knights have been scoring goals and they also have given some former castoffs a second chance, which has inspired the young guys, who are getting an early opportunity that they otherwise may not have had. It has created a strong bond throughout and the success they’ve had has created some buzz already in that city but perhaps we should be paying more attention to the vulnerability of the intruder.

Imagine yourself in Vegas at the ripe age of 21 to 25 or even a bit older with a Mount Everest of cash in your pocket. Hockey might not be the first thing on your mind. Of course there are curfews and rules and practices but what happens before and after stays in Vegas. The Blackhawks played in Arizona on Saturday night. They headed to Vegas the next day so they have been here for a couple of days. We doubt they’re playing Resident Evil in their hotel room. This trip to Arizona and Vegas is going to become a familiar one for Western Conference teams but right now it’s a novelty trip that offers up a lot of potential fun for young guys with a boatload of money and in Chicago’s case, some time on their hands. It might not be coincidence that all these teams are losing once they get here.

The bets are as follows:

Vegas -1½ +365 for 1 unit

Vegas +146 for 1 unit

Detroit +111 over BUFFALO

Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.

OT included. Playing the 25th ranked strength of schedule after nine games, Buffalo is 2-7 and has not played a top-10 team yet. The Sabres are 0-1 against top-16 teams. In other words, eight of Buffalo’s nine games this season have been played against the lower tiered teams and although it’s early and things will change, those projected good teams like Montreal, Anaheim and Minnesota for instance are losing games right now and Buffalo still only has two victories in nine tries. One of those wins was an OT victory over Boston in which Buffalo rallied from three down so its record could be worse.

The Sabres are not a garbage team. They are actually a pretty good team in terms of personnel but their problem is not unique. The Sabres goaltending is a mess. Robin Lehner is a below average goalie and Chad Johnson might be worse. Lehner is also a head case that gets rattled so a bad start usually means a long night. The Flames, Jets, Coyotes, Hurricanes, Rangers, Wild (before Dubnyk arrived), Islanders, Panthers and Flyers have been losing games for years because of bad goaltending and you can add the Sabres to that list too. These teams cannot be trusted when spotting a tag because they lose too often. Aside from that, the Sabres rank 22nd in Corsi For and 25th in scoring chances for.

The Red Wings are coming off a brutal performance on Sunday at home against the Canucks. From the coach to the Captain, they all agreed that it was a lame and inexcusable performance. There is almost no chance of the Red Wings being so uninspired again here. Detroit has dropped four in a row but now take the road after losing three of those four at its new rink. The Wings played four of their first five games on the road this season and won three of them including a 6-3 victory in Sin City, a place that nobody else has been able to win at. We’re confident that we’ll get a strong effort from Detroit here after such a lame one against the Canucks and that makes them worthy of a bet against such an unreliable favorite.

The bets are as follows:

Detroit -1½ +301 for 1 unit

Detroit +111 for 1 unit

Arizona +172 over N.Y. ISLANDERS

Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.

OT included. Make no mistake that we are on board with the Islanders. We like their speed, mix of vets and youth, talent and balance and we see plenty of profit potential when they’re being offered a price. However, as the favorite in this range in a bad spot, we’re fading them without hesitation. The Islanders returned home from a four-game road trip on Saturday against the Sharks and proceeded to beat them, 5-3. The Barclay’s Center was jammed and rambunctious too, which is rare for that arena but tonight it’ll probably go back to being the morgue that it is. The Islanders first three games of said trip were on the West Coast before they played the final game at Madison Square Gardens. This game now follows five intense games by the Islanders before they head out on the road for two games afterward. This is a breather spot against a winless team.

Arizona is 0-8 so it goes without saying that the prices on them are inflated. The Coyotes have not been bad, they’ve just been unlucky. You have to be unlucky to lose eight straight to open the year when parity in this league has never been stronger. Arizona is coming off games against Dallas and Chicago and did not get outshot in either. Its Corsi for numbers are comparable to Philadelphia, Chicago, Winnipeg, New Jersey and Ottawa among others so it’s not like they are getting torched under the hood. The ‘Yotes have only been outshot once in their past six games and are near even in terms of high danger scoring chances for (77) and against (81). To give you an idea of how unlucky Arizona has been, Chicago has 59 high danger scoring chances for and 86 against but Chicago has five wins. We’re not suggesting that Arizona is in the same class as the Blackhawks. We’re merely pointing out that Arizona is a competitive team that has been on the wrong side of luck. Arizona opened the year in Anaheim and had a 4-1 lead in the third period before losing it in OT. One has to wonder where they would be had they been able to win that game. That loss snowballed into their worst start in franchise history but now a trip to the East Coast is a well-timed one for the Coyotes, In what we’re calling a favorable spot and a very sweet tag, Arizona is investment worthy here.

The bets are as follows:

Arizona -1½ +454 for 1 unit

Arizona +172 for 1 unit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Lightning AT Hurricanes
Pick: Lightning

Is Tampa Bay due a bit of a letdown? Maybe, but no arguing that the Lightning enters Raleigh very hot after a 7-1 win on Saturday vs. the Penguins. A healthy Steven Stamkos, already on a startling 18 points, one of several categories in which Tampa Bay leads the league. Nikita Kucherov also has an NHL-best 10 goals. And GK Andrei Vasilevskiy has a league-high seven wins. Finally, the Lightning sports an NHL-best 7-1-1 record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

New Orleans vs. Portland
Pick: New Orleans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans snapped an 11-game losing streak in Portland when they closed the regular season six months ago but when they return to Portland tonight for a game with the Blazer, they will again need to break a Portland winning streak. Tonight's contest marks the Blazers' home opener and Portland will take the court tonight at the Moda Center, having won an NBA-record 16 consecutive home openers, dating to a 96-86 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers back in 2000. The Pelicans are 1-2 to open the new season and the Blazers check in at 2-1.

New Orleans: The Pelicans will be without starter Rajon Rondo (core muscle surgery) for at least another month, so New Orleans signed veteran PG Jameer Nelson on Sunday. He played against the Lakers later that night and contributed five points and five assists in 24 minutes, as the Pelicans won for the first time this season, 119-112. The 35-year-old Nelson could find himself in the starting lineup alongside Jrue Holiday. "There is nothing on the court that is going to startle or scare me," Nelson told reporters Monday after his first practice with the team. "Anything is possible. You can't really put your finger on what's going to happen, why it's happening, when it's going to happen. Just be ready." The Pelicans have their own version of "the Twin Towers," as Davis is averaging 31.7 & 16.7 and Cousins 28.7 & 11.7.

Portland: The Blazers will again be relying on the backcourt duo of Lillard (23.7-5.7-5.3) and McCollum (27.0 & 5.0). However, for Portland to really move up in the Western Conference, the Blazers will need center Jusuf Nurkic, who made such a splash after arriving in a trade-deadline deal with the Denver Nuggets last season, to "keep it up." He's averaging 13.0 & 8.0 but is shooting only 43.2 percent from the floor with 13 turnovers in the three games. "Slow start. I must be better, and I'm going to be," Nurkic told NBC Sports Northwest. "It just takes time. I'm getting there. On defense, I'm doing what I'm supposed to do. If I could make shots, it would be different. Unfortunately, I'm missing, so I just have to get back to work and trust myself."

The pick: New Orleans is going to need to find a reliable third scoring option beyond Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins but that seems very doable to me. The Pelicans took three of four meeting from the Blazers last season and here, I expect them to end that long Portland winning streak in home openers. Take the road team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Calgary @ Nashville
Pick: Nashville -133

Calgary heads out on the road after dropping three of four, but was favored in all three defeats. The Flames have been outscored on the season with a terrible offense at #27 in goals scored, and #14 on the power play. And the defense is just #16 in goals allowed. The Flames are 27-55 away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Nashville Predators have yet to be beaten at home at 3-0 where they've outscored visitors by a 14-7 count. The offense is getting it going behind Scott Hartnell and Filip Forsberg, scoring 18 goals the last six games, while the defense is seventh in the NHL in goals allowed, and eighth in penalty killing. Nashville is on a 40-19 run at home, plus 21-7 against the Western Conference, and holds all the cards tonight.