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NFL
Week 9
Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.
Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.
Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)— New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.
Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)— Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.
Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)— This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.
Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)— Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.
Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)— Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.
Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)— Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.
Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)— 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.
Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)— Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.
Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)— Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.
Week 9
Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.
Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.
Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)— New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.
Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)— Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.
Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)— This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.
Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)— Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.
Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)— Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.
Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)— Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.
Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)— 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.
Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)— Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.
Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)— Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.
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