Monday 11-6-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 5

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 5-6) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)


Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 2:52P
(PLUS UP TO 10% PLUS 10%) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BOO BOO BEAR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOO BOO BEAR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I' M FOCUSED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SLOT PLAYER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the h orse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
BOO BOO BEAR
8/5

5/2
3
I'M FOCUSED
2/1

7/1
5
SLOT PLAYER
5/2

7/1

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Handicapped by Valuline at Zia Park

Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 10 (Monday November 6, 2017)

BACK SEAT KISS
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

ZIA-10 6.5f DIRT Nine Horses
"A" CLM 10,000 F/M 3YUP $15,000
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

1 BACK SEAT KISS 7/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
2 LE GRANDE WHO 5/2 14% 6/1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:54pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: 4

#2 THE INCIDENT (ML=7/2)
#7 MYSTERIOUSMAGICIAN (ML=6/1)


THE INCIDENT - This horse should go right out to the early lead and may never look back. Could wire the field. Taking a drop in class rating points from her September 30th race at Oak Tree at Pleasanton. Based on that information, I will give this horse the edge. Earnings per race is something that I think can be a very valuable selection factor. This horse is ranked at the top in this field. MYSTERIOUSMAGICIAN - Dominguez has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. You have to really like that most recent race speed rating, 82, which is the best last race speed figure of this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CHASENTHISDREAM (ML=5/2), #6 GOOD GRAMMAR (ML=3/1), #1 FASHION REWARD (ML=9/2),

CHASENTHISDREAM - I don't normally play a morning-line favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. If you keep playing these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Quite unimpressive fig in the last race at Zia Park at 6 furlongs. Don't think this pony will improve too much in today's race. GOOD GRAMMAR - Don't think this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class rating. FASHION REWARD - Difficult to bet on at 9/2 odds after the two most recent outings.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #2 THE INCIDENT on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Nov 06, 2017
US Avellino vs. Perugia

Free play on Perugia -120. This soccer match takes place in Italy Series B.

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, November 6, 2017

NBA (501) BOSTON CELTICS VS (502) ATLANTA HAWKS

Take: UNDER

Reason: Your free play for Monday, November 5 is in the NBA contest between the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks. The Boston Celtics are one of the hottest teams to start the season, off to a 7-2 start including a 4-1 road record. In fact, the Celtics lost their first two games of the season and since have won seven straight. Kyrie Irving, acquired in the offseason, is leading the club in scoring (22.1 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg). Former Atlanta Hawk Al Horford leads in field goal percentage (54.3). The Celtics are the top scoring defense in the league at just 93.8 ppg allowed. The Celtics have been a very good under club, going 5-20-2 O/U in their last 27 away games. In addition, they are 2-5 O/U their last seven games. The Atlanta Hawks are just 2-8 and in last in the Eastern Conference. They are 25th in scoring at 101.1 ppg. The Boston defense has been great and the Atlanta offense not so great. Boston can shutdown this Atlanta team today and I'm taking the UNDER.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

MONDAY Under 205 Celtics/Hawks

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DUSTIN HAWKINS

Free Play on Hawks +8½ -115

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LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is on the Vancouver Canucks (10:00 EST).

Detroit comes in off a highly satisfying 4-0 win over the Oilers in Edmonton yesterday afternoon and suffice it to say, I believe it’ll suffer a classic letdown here.
The Canucks broke a small two game slide with a solid 4-2 win at home over the Penguins in their latest action. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom made 39 stops in that one and he’s expected to get the call here as well.
Jimmy Howard gets the nod for the visitors and he’s so far been decent, going 2-1 in his last three while allowing seven total goals.
I’ll point out though that despite yesterday’s win, the Red Wings are still just 1-4 in their last five on the road, while Vancouver is a near-perfect 4-1 in its last five against the Eastern Conference.
As mentioned off the top, I think Detroit comes in with “heavy legs” after its big road win yesterday. Consider the home side in this matchup.
Good luck…Larry

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Joey Juice

Monday night comp play will be the Lions to down the Packers at Lambeau Field.

Matt Stafford vs Brett Hundley is just not a fair fight.

I'm talking about one of the NFL's best passers against a mediocre stand-in at best.

Let's take a look at the numbers for some reassurances here...while Green Bay is a dominant 4-1 ATS last 5 in series, so too is the favorite, which is 16-5 ATS last 21 in this series.

No Rogers = No chance.

Bet Detroit.

2* DETROIT

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Tommy Brunson

Monday night comp play will be the visiting Lions to win their division game against the Rodgers-less Packers.

Green Bay has had the week to work some things out now that Brett Hundley is entrenched as the starter for the injured Aaron Rodgers, but Hundley is certainly not in the class of Matthew Stafford, and even though the Lions are losers of 3 straight, tonight they stop that skid.

Detroit posted almost 500 yards of total offense in last Sunday night's home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, as they were held without a touchdown.

Expect the floodgates to open tonight for Stafford and his offense, as Green Bay's defense should be on the field for a longer period of time tonight and will eventually wear down.

Hundley may fire some scoring shots, but I doubt he fires enough to lead the home team to the mild upset. Let's face facts, there is only one Aaron Rodgers, and he will not be playing tonight.

Take Detroit.

3* DETROIT

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When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, November 6, 2017
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Preview: Lions at Packers

Gracenote
Nov 3, 2017

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Lions -2.5. O/U: 43.5

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4): Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3): Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Detroit's 10 interceptions and 16 overall takeaways rank third-best in the league.

2. Green Bay CB Damarious Randall has recorded an interception in three straight games.

3. Lions Pro Bowl G T.J. Lang, who spent eight seasons with the Packers, is making his first trip to Lambeau Field since signing a three-year, $28.5 million contract in March.

PREDICTION: Lions 23, Packers 17

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Trends - Detroit at Green Bay

ATS TRENDS

Detroit

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 9. Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Lions are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC North. Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. Lions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC. Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Lions are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games on grass. Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Green Bay

Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Packers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week. Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North. Packers are 38-16 ATS in their last 54 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Packers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.

OU TRENDS

Detroit

Under is 4-0 in Lions last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 7-1 in Lions last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games in November. Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North. Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 games in Week 9. Under is 14-3 in Lions last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-3 in Lions last 12 Monday games. Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 22-8 in Lions last 30 road games. Under is 23-9 in Lions last 32 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Green Bay

Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games in Week 9. Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week. Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. NFC North. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 11-3 in Packers last 14 games overall. Over is 7-2 in Packers last 9 games on grass. Over is 10-3 in Packers last 13 vs. NFC. Over is 8-3 in Packers last 11 games following a ATS loss. Over is 5-2 in Packers last 7 home games. Under is 5-2 in Packers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games following a straight up loss. Over is 43-21-1 in Packers last 65 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

HEAD TO HEAD

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Monday, November 6

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 9

Trend Report

Monday, November 6

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

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NFL

Week 9

Monday's game
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)— Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.