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Saturday 11-18-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Saturday's Week 12 NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds
(12) Central Florida Knights at Temple Owls (+13.5, 55.5)
* The Knights average 15.05 yards per completed pass, the 11th-best rate among FBS teams. UCF QB McKenzie Milton has accounted for nine touchdowns (six passing, three rushing) over his past three games.
* The Owls rank outside the top 100 in Division I in both rushing yards per game (124.3) and yards per carry (3.5). The Temple defense averages 2.8 sacks per game, 22nd in the country.
LINE HISTORY: The Owls opened this game at most books as 14 point home dogs and have been bet down slightly to +13.5. The total hit the betting board at 57 and was quickly dropped to 56.
TRENDS:
* Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Owls last 7 home games.
(18) Michigan Wolverines at (4) Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 39.5)
* Wolverines RB Karan Higdon has just 95 rushing yards on 25 attempts over his previous two road games. No team has been stingier on third-down defense than Michigan, which has limited foes to a 23.7-percent conversion rate.
* The Badgers have been the most prolific third-down team in the nation, converting at a 52-percent success rate. Wisconsin averages 35:42 time of possession per game, behind only Navy among FBS programs.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this Big Ten clash with the Badgers as 10 point home chalk and money coming in the road team has seen that number drop as low as -7.5. The total opened at 41 and money on the under has lowered that number to 39.5.
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Wolverines are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Over is 10-1 in Wolverines last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 9-2 in Badgers last 11 conference games.
Southern Methodist Mustangs at (17) Memphis Tigers (-12.5, 71.5)
* The Mustangs have a plus-12 turnover differential through 10 games, the sixth-best rate in the nation. RB Trey Quinn has just 134 rushing yards over his past two games after reaching triple digits in each of his previous four contests.
* Tigers QB Riley Ferguson has erupted for 1,777 passing yards with 18 touchdowns passes against just two interceptions over his previous five games. Memphis has generated 22 turnovers, tied with Cal for eighth-most in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Memphis hit the board at most shops as 11.5 point home faves and have been bet up to an even -12. The total opened at 75.5 and money has been coming in on the under all week driving the line down as low as 71.5.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 home games.
(14) Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+7, 56.5)
* The Horned Frogs have held opposing FBS quarterbacks to a 50.7-percent completion rate, the eighth-lowest mark in the nation. TCU QB Kenny Hill has thrown just one touchdown pass over his previous three games.
* The Red Raiders are the fifth-worst team in all of Division I in red-zone scoring, converting at a 68.1-percent rate. Texas Tech ranks first in the Big 12 in turnovers (22) and overall turnover differential (plus-10).
LINE HISTORY: The Horned Frogs opened as low as 6-point road faves and that number was bet up as high as +7.5 before fading back at most shops to +7. The total hit the betting board at 58 and is down slightly to 57.5.
TRENDS:
* Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Texas Tech.
* Under is 6-0 in Horned Frogs last 6 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Virginia Cavaliers at (2) Miami Hurricanes (-18.5, 50.5)
* Cavaliers LB Micah Kiser's 106 tackles rank first in the ACC and fourth in the nation. Virginia's defense has limited the opposition to a 71.4-percent success rate in 28 red-zone trips, the seventh-best mark in Division I.
* The Hurricanes have held FBS quarterbacks to a 49.8-percent completion rate, the third-best mark in the country. Miami is one of only six FBS teams to force at least 24 turnovers so far this season.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hurricanes as low as 17-point home chalk and money coming in on 'The U' has seen that line as high as -19.5 before fading back to 19. The total opened at 50.5 and has yet to move off the opening number.
TRENDS:
* Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 7-0 in Hurricanes last 7 games overall.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami.
(19) Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (+13, 57.5)
* The Bulldogs either score or extend drives on 47.3 percent of their third-down situations, 10th-best in FBS. Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald has thrown just six TD passes over his past seven games, but has added eight rushing scores in that span.
* The Razorbacks have permitted opposing teams to convert 46.8 percent of their third-down opportunities; only nine Division I teams have fared worse. QB Austin Allen is in line for another start Saturday following Cole Kelley's DWI arrest earlier this week.
LINE HISTORY: The Bulldogs opened this SEC East matchup as 11.5 road chalk and money coming in on the road team Friday morning saw that line jump to an even +13. The total hit the betting board at 59 and money coming in on the under has driven that line down to 57.5 at most shops.
TRENDS:
* Razorbacks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Razorbacks are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
UL Monroe Warhawks at (6) Auburn Tigers (-36.5, 68)
* Warhawks QB Caleb Evans has thrown for 761 yards while accounting for eight touchdowns (six passing, two rushing) over his past two games. UL Monroe has scored at least 45 points in each of its four wins while reaching 30 just once in its five losses.
* The Tigers have scored on 41 of their 44 red-zone visits in 2017, its 93.2-percent success rate 11th-best among FBS teams. Auburn averages 35.6 penalty yards per game, seventh-fewest in the country.
LINE HISTORY: Auburn opened as high as massive 37-point home chalk and money quickly came in on the road team bringing that line down to -35.5 early in the week before rebounding and settling at -36.5. The total opened at 68 and has yet to move off the opening number.
TRENDS:
* Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in Warhawks last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 games overall.
Texas Longhorns at (25) West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 53)
* Linebacker Malik Jefferson, who has totaled 93 tackles, including 10 for losses, leads a Texas defense which is the Big 12’s second best in terms of the fewest rushing (115.0) and total yards (367.3) allowed and also is the second stingiest with 21.9 points permitted per contest.
* Will Grier (fourth nationally with 344 passing yards per outing) and the rest of the Mountaineers’ offense, which ranks 12th nationally in scoring (39.0) and seventh in total yards (513.9).
LINE HISTORY: The Mountaineers opened as field goal home faves and has been bet up slightly to -3.5. The total hit the betting board at 55.5 and money on the under has driven that number down to 53.
TRENDS:
* Longhorns are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Longhorns last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 23-10 in Mountaineers last 33 conference games.
Illinois Fighting Illini at (8) Ohio State Buckeyes (-41, 53.5)
* The Illini lead Division I in forced fumbles per game (1.6), but have recovered just nine of 16 for the season. Illinois quarterbacks have combined to throw 17 interceptions, second-most in the nation.
* The Buckeyes have gone 20-2 in the month of November under head coach Urban Meyer. Six of Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett's seven interceptions on the season have come over the past two games.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened up as 38.5 point home chalk in this Big Ten battle, money coming in on the home team has pushed this number as high as -41 at most shops. The total opened at 56 and money on the under has driven that number down to 53.
TRENDS:
* Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Ohio State.
* Over is 7-1 in Buckeyes last 8 conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Buckeyes last 6 games following a straight up win.
Kentucky Wildcats at (7) Georgia Bulldogs (-21.5, 51.5)
* The Wildcats have allowed opponents to score on 90.9 percent of their red-zone trips, the 10th-worst rate among FBS schools. Kentucky RB Benny Snell Jr. has 472 rushing yards and nine touchdowns over his previous three games.
* The Bulldogs have made good on 97.4 percent of their red-zone visits (37-of-38), the top rate in Division I. Freshman QB Jake Fromm ranks fourth in the SEC in overall passing efficiency at 163.4.
LINE HISTORY: The Bulldogs hit the board as high as 22 point home chalk against their SEC East counterparts and that line has been bet down slightly to -21.5. The total hit the betting board at 50.5 and is up at most shops to 51.5.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 conference games.
(5) Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks (+37, 70.5)
* The Sooners have surrendered an average of 33.8 points over their last seven games, but have gone 6-1 in that stretch. Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield has accounted for 14 touchdowns (12 passing, two rushing) over his previous three outings.
* The Jayhawks have converted 93.3 percent of their red-zone visits into points, good for 10th among FBS teams. Kansas has committed 23 turnovers; only four Division I schools have accumulated more.
LINE HISTORY: The Big 12 leading Sooners opened as huge 35-point road chalk and that wasn't high enough for bettors as money on the road team pushed that line up to +37. The total opened at 70.5 and is down slightly to an even 70.
TRENDS:
* Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Kansas State Wildcats at (13) Oklahoma State Cowboys (-19.5, 65)
* FBS opponents pass the ball a whopping 57.2 percent of the time against the Wildcats, the highest such ratio in the nation. Kansas State ranks 115th out of 129 Division I schools in third-down success rate (31.6 percent).
* Cowboys RB Justice Hill (Big 12-leading 1,198 rushing yards) has reached the 100-yard plateau in six of his last seven games. Oklahoma has picked off 15 passes this season, tops in the conference and tied for seventh-most in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Cowboys as 21-point home faves, money on the road team has brought that line down to -19.5. The total hit the betting board at 65 and been bet down a full point to 64.
TRENDS:
* Wildcats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma State.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Navy Midshipman at (9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-17.5, 58.5)
* Midshipmen sophomore QB Malcolm Perry ran for 282 yards and four TDs in his first career start but suffered an ankle injury late in the win over SMU and is questionable for this week. Navy ranks eighth nationally in third-down conversion rate at 47.6 percent.
* Fighting Irish QB Brandon Wimbush (1,406 passing yards, 12 TDs, 4 INTs) is coming off the first multi-interception game of his career in last week's loss to Miami. Notre Dame ranks 15th in the country in red-zone scoring rate (92.5 percent).
LINE HISTORY: Notre Dame opened as 17.5-point home faves and briefly went up to -18, before returning to the opening number late in the week. The total hit the board as high as 62 and by the end of the week was at 59 at most shops.
TRENDS:
* Midshipmen are 2-0-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
* Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Notre Dame.
Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans (-16, 43)
* The Terrapins have converted just 30.5 percent of their third downs (119th out of 129 FBS teams) while allowing opponents to craft a 48.7-percent success rate (123rd). Maryland also ranks outside the top 100 in completion percentage (55.2).
* The Spartans have played the third-toughest schedule of any FBS team in the CFP, with their opponents sporting a collective 57-30 record. Michigan State averages 34 minutes time of possession per game, the third-best mark in the country.
LINE HISTORY: The Spartans opened the week as 17-point home chalk at most books, money on the underdog brought that number down to -16. The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and money on the under drove that line down to 43.
TRENDS:
* Terrapins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Terrapins last 6 road games.
* Over is 9-1 in Terrapins last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at (11) Penn State Nittany Lions (-26, 55.5)
* The Cornhusker defense has generated just 12 sacks through 10 games, fewer than all but nine FBS teams. Nebraska QB Tanner Lee has thrown for just 399 yards with three TDs and three INTs in his past two games.
* The Nittany Lions have scored 20 or more points in 20 straight games, the team's longest streak since 1993-95. Penn State ranks tied for fourth in Division I in overall turnover differential at plus-13.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Nittany Lions as 24-point home faves and money on the home team bumped that line up to -26 by the end of the week. The total opened at 57 and was bet down as low as 55, before fading back up to 56.
TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Nittany Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Cornhuskers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
(21) Louisiana State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (+15.5, 45.5)
* The Tigers have allowed just 10 first-half touchdowns over their previous 14 games dating back to the end of last season. RB Derrius Guice has racked up 494 rushing yards and four scores over his previous three games.
* The Volunteers have forced nine turnovers over their past four contests, boasting a plus-three turnover margin over that stretch. Tennessee ranks 122th among FBS teams in third-down conversion rate (30.2 percent).
LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened at most shops as 14-point home dogs and that number wasn't high enough for bettors as money on the road team pushed that number up to +15.5 by Friday. The total hit the boards at 46 and at most books is down slightly to 45.5.
TRENDS:
* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tennessee.
* Under is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 home games.
(22) NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1.5, 63)
* The Wolfpack have scored points on just 72.1 of their red-zone opportunities, the ninth-worst mark in Division I. RB Nyheim Hines has four 100-yard rushing efforts and five touchdowns in NC State's last four victories.
* The Demon Deacons rank 12th among FBS schools in red-zone conversion rate (93 percent). Wake Forest is sixth nationally in total tackles for loss (85), and are one of 16 Division I teams to compile at least 300 yards lost via tackles.
LINE HISTORY: Wake Forest opened this ACC Atlantic division matchup as 1.5-home chalk and the line hasn't moved off the opening number. The total opened at most shops at 63.5 and is down slightly to an even 63.
TRENDS:
* Demon Deacons are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Wake Forest.
* Wolfpack are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Wake Forest.
* Home team is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
UCLA Bruins at (10) Southern California Trojans (-16, 71.5)
* Bruins QB Josh Rosen (3,094 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) returned from a one-game concussion absence to throw for 381 yards and a score in last week's win over Arizona State. UCLA averages 74 penalty yards per game, sixth-most in the country.
* Opponents score on just 70 percent of their trips inside the Trojans' 20, the fifth-lowest success rate in Division I. QB Sam Darnold has thrown 15 touchdown passes in six games since being held without a TD throw against Washington State on Sept. 29.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Trojans as 15-point home faves over their Pacific-12 rivals and that number wasn't high enough for bettors as money on the home team pushed the line to -16. The total hit the betting board late in the week at 71.5 and has yet to move.
TRENDS:
* Bruins are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Southern California.
* Under is 9-1-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Bruins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Southern California.
California Golden Bears at (23) Stanford Cardinal (-15.5, 55.5)
* Ross Bowers helped the Bears snap a two-game losing skid by going 24-of-30 for 259 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. Cal has lost 11 consecutive Pac-12 road games dating back to Sept. 26, 2015 at Washington.
* Bryce Love has 15 rushing touchdowns to lead the Cardinal. The offense received a boost against the Huskies from K.J. Costello, who threw for a career-high 211 yards without a turnover in his third career start.
LINE HISTORY: The Golden Bears opened as 17.5 road dogs for this Pacific-12 showdown and at most books that number has been dropped to +15.5. The total opened at 55.5 and has yet to move off the opening number.
TRENDS:
* Golden Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-0 in Cardinal last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Utah Utes at (15) Washington Huskies (-17.5, 46.5)
* The Utes are tied for eighth in Division I in turnovers gained (22) but are 124th out of 129 teams in turnovers lost (23). Seven of QB Tyler Huntley's nine interceptions this season have come in losses to Arizona State (four) and Washington State (three).
* Huskies quarterbacks have completed 68.9 percent of their attempts to date, the fifth-best rate among FBS schools. Washington is one of only four Division I teams allowing 2.8 yards per carry or fewer.
LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 17.5 home chalk and the line briefly dropped to -17 midweek, before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 47 and has been bet down slightly at most shops to 46.5.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Utes last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
73.951
East Carolina
69.048
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
64 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Over
Georgia Tech @ Duke
Game 327-328
November 18, 2017 @ 3:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
94.625
Duke
93.234
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Tech
by 1 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Tech
by 6 1/2
47 Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(+6 1/2); Under
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Game 329-330
November 18, 2017 @ 12:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
88.154
Virginia Tech
101.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 13 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 16
48 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+16); Over
Central Florida @ Temple
Game 331-332
November 18, 2017 @ 12:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
101.095
Temple
79.044
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 22
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 13 1/2
56 Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-13 1/2); Under
NC State @ Wake Forest
Game 333-334
November 18, 2017 @ 7:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NC State
98.486
Wake Forest
102.755
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 4 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 1 1/2
63 Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(-1 1/2); Over
Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
80.420
Wyoming
91.607
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 11
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fresno State
by 2 1/2
39 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(+2 1/2); Over
Air Force @ Boise State
Game 347-348
November 18, 2017 @ 10:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
77.936
Boise State
97.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 20
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 17 1/2
56 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(-17 1/2); Over
Hawaii @ Utah State
Game 349-350
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Hawaii
65.967
Utah State
84.158
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 18
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah State
by 10 1/2
56 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Utah State
(-10 1/2); Under
Rice @ Old Dominion
Game 351-352
November 18, 2017 @ 2:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Rice
63.513
Old Dominion
68.806
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Old Dominion
by 5 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Old Dominion
by 9
52 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Rice
(+9); Over
Charlotte @ Southern Miss
Game 353-354
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
59.706
Southern Miss
74.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Miss
by 14 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Miss
by 17
47 Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+17); Under
Massachusetts @ Brigham Young
Game 355-356
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
73.941
Brigham Young
83.049
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 9
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 4 1/2
51 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Brigham Young
(-4 1/2); Over
Dunkel Rating:
Illinois
74.558
Ohio State
119.649
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 45
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 41
54 Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-41); Under
UAB @ Florida
Game 369-370
November 18, 2017 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
UAB
76.083
Florida
89.888
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida
by 10 1/2
48 Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(-10 1/2); Over
Arizona State @ Oregon State
Game 371-372
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
85.704
Oregon State
86.292
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon State
Even
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 7
58 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Oregon State
(+7); Over
Dunkel Rating:
Utah
90.923
Washington
111.375
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 20 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 17 1/2
46 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-17 1/2); Over
Dunkel Rating:
Kansas State
92.841
Oklahoma State
108.034
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 15
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 20 1/2
65 Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(+20 1/2); Under
San Jose St @ Colorado State
Game 389-390
November 18, 2017 @ 3:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
54.194
Colorado State
84.156
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 30
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 33
66 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+33); Over
Nebraska @ Penn State
Game 391-392
November 18, 2017 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Nebraska
87.588
Penn State
109.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 22
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 27 1/2
55 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
Nebraska
(+27 1/2); Over
Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico St
75.771
LA-Lafayette
65.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Mexico St
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Mexico St
by 4
65 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(-4); Under
Dunkel Rating:
Army
87.255
North Texas
80.749
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Army
by 6 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Texas
by 3
57 Dunkel Pick:
Army
(+3); Over
Texas State @ Arkansas St
Game 405-406
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
61.599
Arkansas St
83.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 22
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 26 1/2
59 Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+26 1/2); Under
Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
67.815
Boston College
100.643
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston College
by 33
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston College
by 21
50 Dunkel Pick:
Boston College
(-21); Under
Marshall @ TX-San Antonio
Game 411-412
November 18, 2017 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
78.923
TX-San Antonio
76.306
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 2 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TX-San Antonio
by 1
45 Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(+1); Under
Dunkel Rating:
California
90.477
Stanford
104.145
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 13 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 16
55 1/2 Dunkel Pick:
California
(+16); Under
Nevada @ San Diego St
Game 421-422
November 18, 2017 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Nevada
75.237
San Diego St
88.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 13 1/2
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 16 1/2
56 Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(+16 1/2); Over
Dunkel Rating:
Delaware St
33.382
Florida State
93.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 60 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 49
61 Dunkel Pick:
Florida State
(-49); Over
The Citadel @ Clemson
Game 427-428
November 18, 2017 @ 12:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
The Citadel
62.037
Clemson
103.578
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 41 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 44 1/2
52 Dunkel Pick:
The Citadel
(+44 1/2); Over
Western Carolina @ North Carolina
Game 429-430
November 18, 2017 @ 3:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Western Carolina
67.926
North Carolina
85.983
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 18
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 20 1/2
61 Dunkel Pick:
Western Carolina
(+20 1/2); Under
Wofford @ South Carolina
Game 431-432
November 18, 2017 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Wofford
70.763
South Carolina
88.168
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina
by 17 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina
by 19
44 Dunkel Pick:
Wofford
(+19(); Over
Saturday’s top 13 games
Georgia Tech lost three of last five games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing at Miami, Clemson, Virginia. Jackets need to win this game for a bowl bid- they play Georgia next. Duke lost its last six games after a 4-0 start. Tech won 11 of last 13 games with Duke, but lost two of last three. Tech won five of last six visits to Durham, with four of five wins by 17+ points. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. ACC home underdogs are 11-8 vs spread this season. Over is 3-1 in last four Tech games; last eight Duke games stayed under the total.
Northwestern won its last five games, three in OT; Wildcats are 4-1 at home, 3-1 vs spread as a home favorite, with only home loss to Penn State. Minnesota lost five of last seven games; they are 1-2-1 as a road underdog. Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine Minnesota-Northwestern games; teams split last eight series games played here. Gophers were held under 300 TY in three of last four series games, but still won three of those four games. Big 14 home favorites are 15-11 vs spread this season. Over is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games.
West Virginia won four of its last five games, winning at K-State LW; Mountaineers are 4-1 at home, 3-0 as a home favorite- their only home loss was as an underdog to Okla State. Texas split its four road games; they’re 1-1 as a road underdog. Longhorns win one more win to go to a bowl. WVU won 38-20/24-20 in last two games with Texas; teams split last two games played here, with favorites covering both of those. Big X home favorites are 9-9 vs spread this year. Over is 5-3 in last eight West Virginia games, under is 7-2 in last nine Texas tilts.
TCU senior QB Hill is ??mark here; check status. TCU lost two of last three games; they’re 3-2 on road this year, 2-1 as road favorites. Horned Frogs allowed 533 yards in loss at Oklahoma LW, after holding previous four foes under 270. Texas Tech lost its last three home games, by 7-18-8 points. Dogs covered four of last six TCU-Texas Tech games; Frogs lost two of last three visits to Lubbock- they won 55-52 in last visit here. Big X home underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this season. Last six TCU games stayed under the total, as did three of last four Tech games.
Arizona won five of its last six games, with one loss 49-35 at USC; Wildcats ran ball for 300+ yards in last five wins. Oregon lost four of last five games, allowing 31+ points in all four losses; Ducks are 4-1 at home, with only loss 33-10 to Washington State. Oregon won six of last eight games with Arizona; teams haven’t met since 2014. Wildcats are 2-3 in last five visits to Eugene (2-2-1 vs spread). Average total in last eight series games: 72. Pac-12 home teams are 30-14 vs spread this season. Last six Arizona games went over the total;
Oregon State lost its last eight games; they lost last two home games by total of four points, are 2-1 as home dogs this year. Arizona State is 1-3 on road, despite scoring 34.3 ppg away from home. Underdogs covered six of last seven Arizona State-Oregon State games, with Beavers 5-2 in those games. ASU lost its last five visits to Corvallis- underdogs covered three of last four series games played there. Pac-12 home underdogs are 14-7 vs spread this season. Over is 3-1 in Beavers’ last four games, 3-0 in Sun Devils’ last three games.
Missouri won its last four games, scoring 53.8 ppg; they need one more win to go bowling; Tigers they’re 1-2 on road, allowing 93 points in losing both their SEC road tilts, at Kentucky, Georgia. Vanderbilt lost six of its last seven games; they’re 1-2 as home underdog this season. Missouri is 3-2 vs Vanderbilt in SEC play; underdogs covered three of last four series games. Tigers won 51-28, lost 10-3 in last two visits to Nashville. SEC home underdogs are 7-7 vs spread this season. Over is 5-2 in last seven Missouri games, 6-1 in Sandy’s last seven.
New Mexico State is 2-3 in its last five games, allowing 37+ points in four of the five games; Aggies are 3-3 on road (5-1 vs spread, 2-0 as road favorites). UL-Lafayette is 2-1 at home, with loss 56-50 to UL-Monroe. Underdogs covered seven of last eight New Mexico State-ULL games; six of the eight games were decided by 6 or less points. Aggies split last four visits to ULL, with both wins by a FG. Sun Belt home underdogs are 6-8 vs spread this season. Over is 4-1 in State’s last five games, 1-4 in ULL’s last five games.
Tex-San Antonio lost four of last six games, losing 14-7/24-19 last two weeks; Roadrunners are 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points. Marshall won six of its last eight games; they’re 3-2 on road, losing at NC State/FAU. Thundering Herd allowed 30+ points in its three losses, 23 or less in its wins. UTSA scored 20 or less points in three of its last four games. Marshall (-14.5) beat Tex-San Antonio 34-10 back in 2013, in teams’ only meeting. C-USA 11-6 vs spread this season. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Marshall games, 5-0 in UTSA’s last five.
Ole Miss is 5-5; they allowed 34+ points in six of last seven games, 219+ rushing yards in seven of last nine. Rebels are 2-2 as home favorites this year. Texas A&M is 2-3 in its last five games; they split their only two road games, losing 45-44 at UCLA, winning 19-17 at Florida- they blew a 44-10 lead in loss at UCLA. Dogs covered four of last five Texas A&M-Ole Miss games, with Rebels winning last three games; Aggies won 23-3, lost 41-38 in last two visits to Oxford. SEC home favorites are 13-16 vs spread this season. Last seven Ole Miss games went over total.
Wisconsin is 6-0 at home, 3-3 as a home favorite; this is first game this year Badgers played with a single-digit spread. Michigan was held to 10-13 points in its two losses; they scored 27+ in their eight wins. Wolverines lost 42-13 in their only game as an underdog this year. Home side won seven of last eight Michigan-Wisconsin games; underdogs covered seven of last ten, four of six played here. Wolverines lost last three visits to Madison, by 21-16-3 points. Big 14 home favorites are 15-11 vs spread this season. Over is 6-2 in last eight Wisconsin games,
UCLA is 3-5 in its last eight games; they allowed 37+ points in four of last five. Bruins are 0-5 on road, 0-3 as road underdogs, allowing an average of 49 ppg. USC won its last three games, scoring 45 ppg; they’re 2-4 vs spread as a home favorite. USC is 14-4 in its last 18 games with UCLA, winning 36-14/40-21 last two years. Bruins lost eight of last nine games in the Coliseum- favorites went 7-2 vs spread in those games. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-7 vs spread this season. Over is 8-2 in UCLA games, 4-1 in USC’s last five games.
Stanford won six of its last seven games; they’re 2-1 as a home favorite. Cardinals upset Washington at home LW. California lost five of last seven games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 21-31-16 points- they won at North Carolina. Stanford won its last seven games with California (6-1 vs spread); Cardinal had 821 rushing yards in last three series games. Cal lost its last three games on The Farm, by 13-50-3 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-7 vs spread this season. Under is 5-1 in last six Stanford games, 0-3 in Cal’s last three games.
College football teams struggle to cover the spread before rivalry week
Ashton Grewal
The Ohio State Buckeyes don't bother to cover the spread the week before their annual showdown with Michigan. OSU is 1-4 against the spread the week prior since Urban Meyer took over in 2012.
College football coaches are overpaid and if you don’t believe this statement go take a look at how much money Tennessee has to pay Butch Jones to make him go away. The one time when the compensation might match the required danger pay to deal with soaring stress levels is rivalry week.
A great campaign can quickly be tarnished by a loss to the fan base’s hated rival and a sad season can be saved with a year’s worth of bragging rights over the proper people.
Danny Sheridan went on Paul Finebaum’s radio show on Wednesday and predicted Auburn coach Gus Malzahn would be fired or take the Arkansas job if his Tigers lose to Alabama.
Malzahn won’t be judged the same way if Auburn fails to cover the spread against UL Monroe this weekend, so you can figure him if he’s already looking ahead to the Iron Bowl.
He won’t be alone skipping the calendar. This weekend is the calm before the storm – the week before the biggest game of the year for many football programs.
We did some digging to find out how the teams involved in some of college football’s biggest rivalry games have managed against the spread in their tune-up tilts before the rivalry matchup over the last 10 years.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Rivalry game opponent: Auburn
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 3-6-1
Nick Saban is not above trolling the University of Auburn. He said in September last year that Auburn wasn’t enemy No. 1 for Alabama.
“It was very obvious to me that the Tennessee game was always the biggest game. It was always the biggest game for us,” Saban said on his radio show. “That’s no disrespect to Auburn or the great Iron Bowl rivalry. But to our players and a lot of our fans, the Tennessee game (is always bigger) because of the tradition of the game. It didn’t take long to figure that out.”
It seems like he’s purposely forgetting the 2013 Iron Bowl.
Alabama purposely schedules cupcakes the week before its game against Auburn and it’s no different this year. The Tide play Mercer this weekend and it’s tough to find a spread on the game.
Auburn Tigers
Rivalry game opponent: Alabama
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 5-5
Auburn is coming off a blowout win over Georgia, the previous No. 1 in the college football playoff rankings. The Tigers are 36.5-point home favorites this weekend against UL Monroe and host Alabama next weekend.
The game against UL Monroe is a rare letdown and look-ahead spot for the Tigers. A dreaded double whammy.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Rivalry game opponent: Michigan
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 2-7-1
Power rankings of Urban Meyer’s favorite things to do in life:
1. Prank call Will Muschamp
2. Show strangers on the street pictures of him with Tim Tebow
3. Beating Jim Harbaugh and Michigan
The Buckeyes are 5-0 straight up against the Wolverines since Meyer took over the program but 1-4 ATS in their last game before facing Michigan.
Michigan Wolverines
Rivalry game opponent: Ohio State
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 4-6
Big Blue is consumed with beating the Buckeyes. Harbaugh is a hell of a coach but if Michigan loses to Ohio State for a 13 consecutive year – it could cost him his job. The Wolverines are getting 7.5 points at Wisconsin this weekend and will host Ohio State the following weekend.
Georgia Bulldogs
Rivalry game opponent: Georgia Tech
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 3-7
Mark Richt, the former Georgia head coach and now main man in Miami, was labeled a guy who couldn’t win the big one. He’s won some big ones with Miami this season so it might be fairer to call him the guy who couldn’t cover the little one.
A week after getting its head caved in by Auburn, Georgia is a 21.5-point favorite against the visiting Kentucky Wildcats. UGA will travel to Atlanta to face the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Rivalry game opponent: Georgia
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 6-4
It makes sense that Georgia Tech is one of the few teams on our list with a winning ATS record the week before a rivalry game. Head coach Paul Johnson hasn’t smiled since Bob Hope’s last comedy special on NBC.
The Yellow Jackets game plan never changes regardless of the opponent. Georgia Tech would run the triple option even if it faced a team comprised solely of All-Pro defensive tackles. Oddsmakers list the Yellow Jackets as 6.5-point road chalk against Duke this weekend.
Clemson Tigers
Rivalry game opponent: South Carolina
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 3-7
It seems like only yesterday Clemson was the little college football engine that couldn’t. The Tigers under Tommy Bowden would stumble and bumble their way to an 8-4 or 9-3 season and call it a great year.
But things have changed with Dabo Swinney running the show. He’s got the rep now, but not long ago the big-name coach in the state was located at the other university.
Clemson usually plays an insubstantial ACC opponent or some FCS school the week before its game against South Carolina and that’s the case this year too. The Tigers host The Citadel this weekend.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Rivalry game opponent: Clemson
ATS record in look-ahead spot: 4-6
The Gamecocks used to play Florida the week before Clemson but switched up their sked and have played an FCS opponent for six straight years. This season is no different. USC hosts Wofford this weekend.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Michigan at Wisconsin betting preview and odds
The Michigan Wolverines haven't turned the ball over once since head coach Jim Harbaugh dumped John O'Korn and made Brandon Peters his starting quarterback.
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 40.5)
Fourth-ranked Wisconsin looks to keep its perfect record intact when it hosts Michigan on Saturday. The Badgers are 10-0 for the first time in program history and are coming off a 38-14 victory over Iowa which clinched the Big Ten West title, but have their eyes on a bigger prize as they strive to take another step towards their first appearance in the College Football Playoff by beating the Wolverines in Madison for the fourth straight time.
Wisconsin is fourth in the CFP rankings and controls its own destiny as it aims to avenge a 14-7 setback to Michigan last season. Michigan has won three consecutive games following a 35-10 triumph against Maryland. The Wolverines still have an outside shot of winning the Big Ten East crown, but need to win their final two games of the regular season and hope that No.11 Penn State and 24th-ranked Michigan State lose another game.
Michigan hasn't turned the ball over since Brandon Peters replaced a struggling John O'Korn in the first half of the 35-14 win against Rutgers and the Wolverines hope their freshman quarterback can lead them to their first road victory against Wisconsin since Nov. 17, 2001.
TV: Noon ET, FOX.
LINE HISTORY: The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened with Wisky as 9-point chalk but the line has dropped as much as 2 points to Badgers -7. The total is floating between 39.5 and 40.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Michigan - RB Karan Higdon (Questionable, Ankle), WR Kekoa Crawford (Questionable, Undisclosed), DB Lavert Hill (Questionable, Concussion), DE Luiji Vilain (Questionable, Lower Body), TE Nick Eubanks (Questionable, Head), WR Nico Collins (Questionable, Leg) WR Oliver Martin (Questionable, Upper Body), RB Ty Isaac (Undisclosed, Questionable).
Wisconsin - LB Chris Orr (Out, Leg), WR George Rushing (Out, Leg), WR Jazz Peavy (Out, Ankle), TE Luke Benzschawel (Out, Leg), WR Quintez Cephus (Out, Leg), OL Tyler Biadasz (Questionable, Leg).
ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U): Chris Evans rushed for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Maryland to give him four scores in his last two games. Peters threw for 145 yards and two touchdowns while Karan Higdon accounted for 98 total yards before sitting out the second half with an ankle injury, but is expected to play on Saturday. Star defensive end Rashan Gary (arm) and cornerbacks Lavert Hill (concussion) and David Long (leg) suffered injuries against the Terrapins but are likely to recover in time to face the Badgers while running back Ty Isaac (head) and offensive lineman Michael Onwenu (leg) are expected to return after missing the last two games.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Linebacker Leon Jacobs was named the Big Ten Co-Defensive Player of the Week after registering four tackles, a sack and a defensive touchdown in the win over Iowa while Jonathan Taylor won the freshman honor following his 157-yard rushing performance. Alex Hornibrook finished with 135 yards passing and two touchdowns but threw three interceptions to give him at least one pick in every conference game this season. Troy Fumagalli, who has caught 33 passes for 422 yards and three touchdowns this season, was named one of eight semifinalists for the John Mackey award, which is presented annually to the top tight end in college football.
TRENDS:
*The Wolverines are 1-5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
*The Badgers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 conference games.
*The over is 10-3 in the Wolverines' last 13 road games.
*The over is 9-2 in the Badgers' last 11 conference games.
CONSENSUS: About 53 percent of contest players like Big Blue to cover as 7-point road dogs against the Badgers.
Nov 18 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | UCLA vs USC
Play on: USC -16 -110 at GTBets
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (USC -16)
The ugly loss to Notre Dame has lit a fire under this USC team, as they have since went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, beating Arizona St on the road 48-17 as a 5-point favorite, Arizona 49-35 as a 7-point home favorite and Colorado 38-24 as a 13.5-point favorite. Even with them laying nearly 3-scores, I think there's some great value with the Trojans in this one.
As you can see from the scores, USC's offense has been racking up the points. They are simply going to have a field day here against UCLA and that horrific defense of theirs. The Bruins simply can't stop the run, as they rank 130th in the country giving up 302.3 ypg on the ground. USC had over 330 yards rushing in both their wins over the Arizona schools and should easily top that mark here.
I know UCLA can score and that offense is the only reason this line isn't bigger, I just don't think they will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. USC's defense isn't great, but it's capable of getting stops. Not to mention I think they are going to come out fired up in their final home game and last tune up before the Pac-12 title game.
Lets also not overlook how bad the Bruins have been on the road, UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and are only scoring 22.8 ppg away from home during this stretch. It's also a plus they won last week, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win. USC on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins. Give me the Trojans -16!
Nov 18 '17, 2:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Iowa State vs Baylor
Play on: Iowa State -9½ -110 at 5Dimes
Iowa State has lost a couple games in the last two weeks yet are still in good position this Saturday. Here is how; road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Cyclones, after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team, are 28-6 ATS, 82.4%, the last decade.
Nov 18 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Connecticut vs Boston College
Play on: UNDER 50 -110
Neither of these teams are what you would call high-scoring. Connecticut ranks 94th in scoring at 24.6 points per game. Boston College is even worse rating 104th in scoring at 23.3 points a game. Both teams are using backup quarterbacks. BC quarterback Darius Webb has thrown just two touchdown passes in 109 throws. He's replacing Anthony Brown, who had started 10 straight games for the Eagles, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the team's 17-14 loss to North Carolina last Saturday. David Pindell is UConn's starting quarterback now replacing Bryant Shirreffs, who had started 29 of the Huskies' last 35 games. Shirreffs suffered a concussion two weeiks ago and no longer is going to play. He is fourth on UConn's all-time passing yardage list. Pindell has yet to prove he is an efficient downfield passer. Making it worse are the probable weather conditions. This game is being played at Fenway Park, which we all know is a baseball field. Look for a slippery, slow track with rain in the forecast and wind. The forecast is for the rain and wind to get heavy before the end of the game. The combination of backup quarterbacks and bad weather should ensure conservative game plans that feature lots of running and short passing, which eat clock. Boston College shut out Connecticut, 30-0, in last year's meeting. The Huskies were held to 121 yards and eight first downs in that defeat.
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