Friday 11-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:50 AM

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:20 PM EASTERN POST
The Gio Ponti Stakes
8½ FURLONGS OUTER TURF THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#2 SMALL BEAR
#5 HIEROGLYPHICS
#4 SECRETARY AT WAR
#6 DALARNA

This race is named for a horse given the name well-known Italian artist and architect ... Gio Ponti was the Champion Turf Horse in 2009 and 2010. He earned 6.1 million dollars in 28 starts, making him one of the richest Thoroughbreds in America of all time. Here in just the 2nd running of "The Ponti," #2 SMALL BEAR, a 5-1 shot on top folks, has hit the board in four of his last five outings, including a win in his 4th race back. #5 HIEROGLYPHICS, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in four of his last five "adventures," including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:51 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar

Del Mar - Race 8

$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50 Cent Trifecta $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) / $1 Super High 5

Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Stalker. PSYCHEDELICAT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PSYCHEDELICAT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a l ayoff. INHIBITION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUPER DUPER COOPER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1
PSYCHEDELICAT
5/1

3/1
11
INHIBITION
7/2

7/1
9
SUPER DUPER COOPER
9/2

9/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
PSYCHEDELICAT
1

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
96

94

80.8

89.2

85.7
9
SUPER DUPER COOPER
8

9/2
Alternator/Stalker
92

92

75.8

69.2

60.7
11
INHIBITION
10

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
88

87

63.2

81.0

75.0
2
IS TREVOR CLEVER
2

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
97

90

46.5

72.0

62.5
4
BARDSTOWN
4

3/1
Trailer
92

88

71.1

80.2

74.7
6
JAY MAKES US LAUGH
5

15/1
Trailer
75

61

48.1

54.3

34.3
7
UNNAMED SOURCE
6

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
85

83

57.5

51.6

35.6
8
DOWNSIDE UP
7

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
79

74

56.6

72.6

60.6
10
AIR FORCE CADET
9

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

49.0

62.5

48.5
3
DRUM ROLL PLEASE
3

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
91

87

30.8

64.4

49.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 87

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS QUARTER HORSES WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE 2017 EVD FUTURITY. $600 TO ENTER TRIALS. ALL PAYMENTS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMENS BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30 A.M. MORNING OF ENTRIES. SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENTS OF $5,000 WILL BE ACCEPTED AT TIME OF ENTRY WHICH MUST BE PAID TO HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER - CASH OR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 RIVER BY THE OAK 5/1

# 3 DASHING SASHAY 5/1

# 5 POTUS B 6/1

I've got to go with RIVER BY THE OAK. Over time, this handler has a solid ROI at this distance/surface. Orozco has a strong 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. DASHING SASHAY - Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. Could beat this group of horses given the 78 speed rating posted in her last outing. POTUS B - Could beat this field given the 68 Equibase Speed Figure posted in his last outing. Has performed admirably lately in short races, posting a nifty 73 avg speed fig.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 I'M AN EIGHT 3/1

# 6 ALIVE AND WELL 6/5

# 1 VIRGHAZI 12/1

I'M AN EIGHT is the strongest wager in this race. Looks very strong against this group of horses and will most likely be one of the leaders. Should definitely be given consideration in this event if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Fig garnered in the last contest. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. ALIVE AND WELL - Has strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager here. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: 4

#6 TRANSISTOR (ML=8/1)
#4 UNCLE POCKETS (ML=7/2)
#3 AMATTEROFTIME (ML=4/1)

TRANSISTOR - Note that although this colt finished in the place spot in his last race, he was well clear of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. This jockey and handler have a high win percentage together. Ran in the last race against better company at Gulfstream Park West. The move to a lower level should suit him well. This colt is in exceptional physical condition right now. Ran second last race out and comes back quickly. The 80 last race fig looks good on paper. UNCLE POCKETS - That recent bullet 49.9 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top performance today. The trainer here (Servis) has a very good ROI with 1st time starters. Gets help from Servis with the addition of Lasix. AMATTEROFTIME - This colt is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Servis. This steed comes out of a sharp barn for first time starters. Servis has a very strong ROI (+57 pct). Servis, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix right here in this race. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 STAR JUANCHO (ML=5/2), #2 GRAN KING OF KINGS (ML=3/1), #1 XIROMA (ML=5/1),

STAR JUANCHO - Almost certainly won't make much of an impression in today's event. GRAN KING OF KINGS - Trying to beat this one in today's event at the price of 3/1. XIROMA - Showed very little in the last event. Really don't expect any improvement today. Can't wager on this steed in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint affair of late.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - UNCLE POCKETS - I'm making a prime bet on this horse. His handler is a stand-out with fine animal's coming out of the box for the first time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 TRANSISTOR to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6] Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 7

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 7-8-9-10) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5

Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 3:06P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SIMONELA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIMONELA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9
SIMONELA
4/1

6/5

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
FRIESING WATERS
9

8/1
Front-runner
0

0

70.2

41.7

36.2
9
SIMONELA
10

4/1
Stalker
71

68

72.4

60.4

56.4
3
MENORAH LORA
2

8/1
Trailer
58

45

32.6

38.6

29.6
5
COURAGEOUS BELLA
6

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

31.3

47.4

39.9
10
CAROLINA ICE
11

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
60

50

29.9

47.0

39.0
7
RUBYS FIRE
8

6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
78

52

30.2

35.4

28.4

Unknown Running Style: EMMA'SDIAMONDDIVA (6/1) [Jockey: Lynch Feargal - Trainer: Keefe Timothy L], DEBS THE BOSS (7/2) [Jockey: Toledo Jevian - Trainer: Capuano Dale], GUPEE (10/1) [Jockey: Miller Jenn - Trainer: Potts Wayne], CANOOCHEE (10/1) [Jocke

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 05:55 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:49pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 86

Rating: 4

#4 FREELANDER (ML=8/1)
#5 CHILHAM COURT (ML=6/1)

FREELANDER - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is up against an easier bunch than last out at Penn National. Another way to judge class is earnings per race. This entrant has the highest in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish line. CHILHAM COURT - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for back-to-back wins. Whitney rode this entrant for the initial time last time around the track and comes right back this race. Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid race within the last thirty days. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 52 to 59 to 86 right in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CATTLE DRIVE (ML=5/2), #10 BOGEY BOB (ML=4/1), #2 BOLD AGAIN (ML=6/1),

BOGEY BOB - This gelding finished off the board on Sep 29th and wasn't close last time around the track either. BOLD AGAIN - In this situation, this runner's inability to make up any ground in the last affair is a matter of concern. This colt registered a speed rating in his last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 FREELANDER on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
4 with 5 with [6,7,11] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
4 with 5 with [2,6,7,10,11] with [2,6,7,10,11] Total Cost: $20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:33 AM

Strike Point Sports

Western Michigan / Toledo Over 61.5

This game is going to be a shootout, and we wouldn't be surprised to see both teams hit for 40+ points. Western Michigan has struggled a bit defensively lately, and that was evident in their last game when they gave up nearly 250 rushing yards to Northern Illinois. The Toledo offense, lead by quarterback Logan Woodside, is going to move the ball all day long against Western Michigan. Look for WMU to keep pace somewhat in this game, but in the end Toledo's offense will be too much, causing this game to go over the posted total. The 'over' is 7-2 in the last nine WMU games, and 7-2 in their last nine games on field turf. For Toledo the 'over' is 5-1 in their last six games overall and 7-1 in their last eight Friday games. This should be a fun, high-scoring game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:34 AM

Indian Cowboy

Toledo -14

We go for eight straight Newsletter Free Pick winners in a row today as we like Toledo to get it done over Western Michigan. Note that Toledo was routed by Western Michigan last year by a score of 55-35, and they will remember that as they face them this week. This is a Western Michigan team that lost a very close game to Northern Illinois 31-35 and covered as a 8.5-point dog in their last game, but they might be hungover from that loss. Toledo has revenge, sits at an impressive 9-2, has the 7th best offense in America and a respectable top 45 passing defense. Toledo just dropped 66 points on Bowling Green and is the same team that put up 30 points against Miami earlier this year. Look for Toledo to do well with revenge in mind and stay focused as a win here could be a significantly better bowl game as they get to the 10-win mark.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:34 AM

Doc's Sports

Orlando

Boston is clearly one of the best teams in basketball and one of the best teams in the east. But they can't win every game this season and they definitely won't cover every one, especially with their recent lines going sky high. As of this writing they almost failed to cover their last two games as they needed OT to get by Dallas and they had a late surge to beat the Hawks who hung with them most of the night. We expect a real big number here. Orlando is a decent squad this season and they are finally getting healthy. They are 5-3 ATS on the road this season and this team is normally undervalued on the road where they usually get big points. Actually this team is 4-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season and they are 5-3-1 ATS on the road. We think that the Thanksgiving holiday might be a distraction to the Celtics and they could come into this one unfocused and the young guys on the Magic will definitely want to play well here. We think that they can keep this one within double digits.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:34 AM

Cal Sports

New Mexico at San Diego St
Under 48

Rocky Long and his 3-3-5 defense knows how to shut down the option and he did again early this season holding Air Force to 235 yards. The Aztecs have held 7 opponents to 315 yards or less and are fired up after allowing a season high 448 yards LW. The Lobos put up 35 points last week against a sieve-like UNLV D but in their prior 5 games they averaged just 10 PPG and are 3-10 O/U as an AD the L3Y. Both teams prefer to run the ball and with clock running will have a low scoring game with a predicted score of San Diego St 27 New Mexico 6.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:34 AM

Ray Monohan

Houston CFB

Houston -4.5 The Cougars have value laying the number at home on Friday. Houston and Navy are very similar teams when looking at the numbers. Where the Cougars grab their value is from their offensive play at home. Houston has put up 37.4 points per game this season when playing inside TDECU Stadium and they match up well here with a Navy defense that is very vulnerable to the big play. On top of that, the Cougars defense is ready for this triple option attack. The Cougars are giving up only 23.9 points per game this season, one of the best marks in the conference. Some trends to note. Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This is a small number to lay for a team that is very good situationally in this spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:34 AM

Scott Spreitzer

Iowa -3½ CFB

We're 6-2 ATS playing against Nebraska with either free or premium plays this season, so this one should not come as a shock. We went against the Huskers last week and watched Penn State shut it down after building a 42-10 halftime lead. If James Franklin allowed his squad to keep their foot on the gas, we have a feeling Nebraska would have suffered one of their worst defeats since Bob Devaney took over the program in the early 1960s. We don't think this will be a problem here. Iowa's offense is not one to put 50 on the board on a regular basis, but we do expect them to hold a comfortable edge throughout the game and the short number is more than fair in our opinion. Nebraska can't run and they can't stop the run and QB Tanner Lee could provide Iowa with short field opportunities with his propensity for bad, interception-worthy throws. Nebraska's slide is now 1-5 SU after last week's loss and they allowed over 40 ppg and 500 yards per game during the skid. Nebraska's Memorial Stadium, once a fortress is now just another stop on the Big-10 road for conference opponents. The Huskers enter on a 1-8-2 ATS slide at home. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have covered four of the last five in the series, including a 40-10 win last year in Iowa City and a 28-20 win in Lincoln two years ago. The Mike Riley-era likely comes to an end with the Huskers' fourth straight loss.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-24-2017, 07:35 AM

Teddy Covers

Pittsburgh +13 CFB

Miami has risen up to #2 in the latest college football playoff rankings, yet the Canes are primed to be tested at Pitt in early start action on Friday. Mark Richt’s squad is coming off three huge, marquee victories all at home. In statement games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, Miami dominated, controlling the flow throughout. Last week, against Virginia, Miami roared back from an early deficit with a furious fourth quarter rally.

A road trip to Pittsburgh in late November is no easy task for this warm weather squad in a normal season. This year, given what Miami has already been through in recent weeks, it’s a MONSTER trouble spot, especially with the lookahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on deck. Quote after quote from the Miami locker room is concerning to me – lots of lookahead, lots of talk about what they don’t want to do (which often leads to the exact opposite effect).

Let’s not forget that the Hurricanes have been living on turnover margin, forcing 19 turnovers in their last five games – that won’t last forever. Nor should we forget the previous struggles this Hurricanes team has had on the highway – barely escaping past struggling Florida State (4-6, won by only four points) and North Carolina(3-8, won by only five points) in their only two road games since September.

Pitt has been hanging around as a moneywinning underdog against superior competition for most of the season. We saw them cover wire-2-wire at +20 at Penn State, knock off Duke with an outright upset at +9 and hang tough with Virginia Tech just last week; throwing for more than 300 yards against that stout Hokies defense on the road in a spread covering loss.

In four meetings between these schools over the past four years, Miami has only one win by more than ten points; a competitive series. All the pressure is on the road favorite here; a situation that this program hasn’t been in for many years. Their defense just allowed a season high in passing yards and total yards last week. Meanwhile Pitt has found their QB of the future in Kenny Pickett, a playmaking frosh with a big arm.

At 4-7, this is Pitt’s bowl game. Senior CB Avonte Maddox: “History is a great thing, but we live in the now. It’s time to create more history……I see it every day (in practice). You know when guys lose, they throw the towel in. This team hasn’t thrown the towel in yet … These guys (are) willing to lay it all on the line.”

Friday 11-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Friday 11-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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