Friday 11-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369837

    #16
    Power Sports

    Iowa -3.5 CFB

    Though they hold a win (55-24!) over Ohio State, this season has largely been a disappointment for Iowa as they enter they enter the final game at only 6-5 SU (will be going to a bowl). Since stunning the Buckeyes (as 18-pt home dogs), the Hawkeyes have dropped B2B games, first to Wisconsin (predictable) and then to Purdue (upset). They close the regular season out at Nebraska and while little is on the line Friday afternoon, I view this number as being way too short given the state of the Cornhuskers, who aren't going bowling and will likely be looking for a new head coach shortly after this game (if they already aren't!). Lay the points.

    This is HC Mike Riley's third year in Lincoln and likely his last. He did get the Cornhuskers to overachieve and finish 9-4 SU last season, but this has been one of the weaker seasons in recent memory for this once proud program. The AD that hired Riley was fired earlier this year, which was an ominous signal for the coaching staff and it's effects have shown up on the field. If it was up to the fanbase, Riley would already be gone and UCF's Scott Frost hired in his place. But that will have to wait (if it happens at all). Last week's 56-44 loss to Penn State guaranteed Nebraska would not have a shot at going to a bowl (barring there not being enough six-win teams) and w/ a coaching staff concerned about it's next job, I just can't see much of an effort taking place Friday.

    Iowa has beaten Nebraska each of the last two seasons, including 40-10 in Iowa City last year. Though 3-5 SU in Big 10 play, Iowa has actually outscored its opponents. Meanwhile, Nebraska has the same Big 10 record, but has been outscored by 82 points! The Huskers' only Big 10 win since September came by a single point over Purdue. Here's a trend for you: Iowa is a perfect 8-0 SU the last three seasons as a road favorite, covering the spread in six of those games.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369837

      #17
      BRANDON LEE

      10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Iowa -3.5)

      I went against the Hawkeyes last week with success, as Iowa lost at home 15-24 to Purdue as a 7-point favorite. That was just a tough spot for the Hawkeyes after two huge games the previous weeks against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Now it's time to jump back on Iowa here against a Nebraska team that hasn't shown a whole lot in the second half of the season. The final score last week against Penn State doesn't even come close to showing how outplayed they were in that game and that was one they needed to win to have any shot at becoming bowl eligible. Even if the Cornhuskers had something to play for, I still would like Iowa at this price. The Hawkeyes' offense has been hit or miss and has struggled to score against the better defensive teams, but should have no problem here against a Nebraska defense that has allowed 30 or more 5 of their last 6, 3 of those times giving up 50 or, including 54 at home to Minnesota, who is worse off than the Hawkeyes on offense. Last year Iowa won 40-10 and I wouldn't be shocked if it was a similar outcome here. Give me the Hawkeyes -3.5!
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369837

        #18
        DOUG UPSTONE
        NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2017
        Missouri vs. Arkansas
        Missouri-9

        The old power football of Arkansas has disappeared and a coaching change could be coming for the Razorbacks. Missouri has won and covered five in a row and that came right after five games losing streak! What we are looking to do on Black Friday is Play Against home underdogs like the Hogs, after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game, against opponent after out-rushing foes by 100 or more yards in three straight games. In the last decade teams like Arkansas are 6-27 ATS.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369837

          #19
          JIMMY BOYD

          Free pick on Western Michigan +

          The Broncos are showing great value here catching two touchdowns against Toledo. The Rockets need this win to secure the MAC West title. While Western Michigan is already bowl eligible, there's a big difference between finishing 7-5 and 6-6. Teams also like to ruin other teams seasons and with so much at stake for the Rockets, I expect a big time effort here by the Broncos.
          Western Michigan is down from a year ago, but I don't think the gap between them and Toledo is as big as this line would suggest. The Broncos are just a few plays away from being undefeated in conference play. Their 3 losses have by 1-point to Central Michigan, 1-point to Akron and by 7 to Central Michigan in a game they led by 14. Toledo beat Bowling Green 66-37, but struggled early and the week before were beat badly by Ohio 38-10. I wouldn't be shocked if Western Michigan won outright.
          Broncos are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, while the Rockets are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Western Michigan!
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369837

            #20
            FREDDY WILLS
            NCAA-F | Nov 24, 2017
            Navy vs. Houston
            Navy +4.5

            I think we have good value here on Navy running the triple option. Houston gave up 300+ yards to this Navy option last year and their run defense has been worse this year. They are giving up 1 yard per carry more against the run, and there offense is also worse than last year scoring a TD less.
            This game is also pretty meaningless for Houston who is already in a bowl game. The game doesn't mean much for Navy, but they are the road team and will be more focused. Navy also plays hard every game, and recruits in Texas a lot so the game in fact is more meaningful for them. I think Navy can really dominate the time of possession as they are #1 in the country at over 36 minutes while Houston ranks 95th. Navy's defensive weakness is against the pass, and that's not something Houston is doing well this year so I think they can actually pull the upset here. They don't have a look ahead either with the Army game still a few weeks away.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369837

              #21
              INFO PLAYS

              1* Free Play on Toledo -13 -115
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369837

                #22
                Jim Feist

                Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, November 24, 2017

                CF (137) SOUTH FLORIDA VS (138) CENTRAL FLORIDA

                Take: OVER

                Reason: Great game on tap today as the 9-1 South Florida Bulls take on the 10-0 Central Florida Knights. The Bulls are 4-6 ATS while the Knights are 6-3-1 ATS on the season. South Florida has won two straight games, with their only loss coming at home to Houston, 24-28. They have lost four straight against the number. This game is for a berth in the AAC Championship game and quite possibly a big New Year's day bowl. Usually when we think of big nationally ranked intrastate Florida rivals playing, the Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles come to mind. Now it's South Florida vs Central Florida, both in the top 22. SF has been a good over team, posting a 10-2 O/U mark their last 12 vs a team with a winning record. CFU is 4-0 O/U in their last four on grass and 4-1 O/U in their last five home games. I expect these teams to put up a lot of points here. Take the OVER.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369837

                  #23
                  Roz Wins

                  Roz's Friday, November 24, 2017, Free Pick

                  (143) CALIFORNIA VS (144) UCLA

                  Take : California
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369837

                    #24
                    Arthur Ralph Sports

                    FRI Missouri -8 1/2
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369837

                      #25
                      TOMMY BRUNSON

                      The Middies fought tooth-and-nail last Saturday in their near-upset win at Notre Dame, but in the end Navy wound up suffering their 4th loss in their last 5 games. Still, prefer to give them the play plus the points in this early kick-off at Houston, as the Midshipmen did knock off an unbeaten and ranked # 6 in the nation at the time Houston team last season at home, and now they catch the Cougars off a 20-17 upset loss at Tulane their last time out.

                      Houston is just 6-11-1 against the spread their last 18 as the home favorite, and Navy continues to cash in when playing on the road as they moved to 28-11 as the road dog with their cover in South Bend last week.

                      The Naval Academy's offense was quite balanced in last week's setback to the Irish, and even though they are playing on the road for the second straight week, I will grab the points in what looks to me like a back-and-forth battle.

                      Take Navy.

                      3* NAVY
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369837

                        #26
                        JOEY JUICE

                        Cal heads to UCLA for a Friday night fight. Both of these teams played their biggest rivals last week. They now both have short weeks, and a game the day after Thanksgiving. But the big news out of this game is UCLA's firing of head coach Jim Mora. This move should have the team in complete disarray this week.

                        Cal Head coach Justin Wilcox has the Bears playing solid, and they are destined to be one of the tougher teams in the Pac 12 over the coming years.

                        A look inside the numbers tells us why Cal is the play.

                        The Cal Bears are solid against their conference, they are.4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. They are also great versus the number against losing teams, they are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records.

                        On the other hand, the UCLA Bruins are not a good grass team at all, they are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.

                        Cal gets the cover.

                        4* CAL
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369837

                          #27
                          BIG AL

                          Our complimentary selection for Friday, Nov 24 is:

                          Detroit Pistons +8 over OKC Thunder.
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369837

                            #28
                            STEPHEN NOVER
                            NBA | Nov 24, 2017
                            Pistons vs. Thunder
                            Pistons+8

                            It took 17 games, but Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony finally put together a signature victory with the Thunder upsetting the Warriors, 108-91, at home Wednesday night. I'm not convinced, though, the Thunder are fully consistent and trustworthy. They might be a little fat and happy celebrating Thanksgiving following that huge victory against the Warriors made even sweeter by knocking off former teammate Kevin Durant and stopping a seven-game losing streak to Golden State. The Thunder are 2-6 ATS the last eight times they've played on one day's rest. The Pistons don't get much respect from either the public or oddsmaker. Yet they own the third-best point spread mark in the NBA at 11-5-1, which includes a 6-2 ATS road record. There are some nice angles for the Pistons in this matchup: 7-1-1 ATS versus Western Conference opponents and 8-0 ATS in their last eight away matchups against foes with a winning home mark. Andre Drummond, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris aren't superstars like the Thunder trio. But Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding while Bradley and Harris are two of the more underrated players in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for Detroit. The Pistons haven't played since Monday when they lost, 116-88, at home to Cleveland. That was the Pistons' worst loss of the season. They were playing for the third time in four days. Now it's the Thunder who carry a high fatigtue rating in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Aside from beating the Warriors, the Thunder have been a major disappointment. They are 8-9 SU and ATS. Maybe they've turned a corner now after beating the Warriors. But I'll take this many points with the well-rested, fesity, underrated Pistons and find out.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369837

                              #29
                              DUSTIN HAWKINS

                              Free Play on Pistons +8½ -110
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369837

                                #30
                                CHIP CHIRIMBES

                                Miami at Pittsburgh 12:00 ET

                                Panthers (+) over Hurricanes

                                Listen, I'm a long time Hurricanes' fan but with the ACC Championship game against Clemson up next Miami might get caught peeking down the road. Pittsburgh has enough to 'cover' this huge number against a distracted Canes club. Take PITTSBURGH!
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