Saturday 12-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF

Bowl Season

December 16
Troy (-6) vs North Texas- New Orleans Bowl
Troy won its last six games, is 10-2 this year, with a win at LSU; Trojans have a 4-year starter at QB, are 2-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. North Texas won five of last six games, losing C-USA title game at FAU Dec 2. Mean Green is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered three of last five New Orleans Bowls; Conference USA teams won last two. Troy won its last two bowls, is 3-3 all-time; North Texas lost three of last four bowls; they’re 2-6 all-time in bowls. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 8-23 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 1-2. Since 2014, C-USA teams are 10-4 SU vs Sun Belt teams, covering four of last six as an underdog vs Sun Belt foes.

Western Kentucky (-5) vs Georgia State- Auto Nation Cure Bowl, Orlando
Western Kentucky is 6-6 this year, after going 40-14 the previous four years; they allowed 30+ points in each of their last six games. WKU has a senior QB who has 41 career starts- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 in games with single digit pointspread. Georgia State has a senior QB who is grad transfer from Utah; Panthers are 6-5 this year, scoring 10 or less points in all five losses- they’re 2-3 vs spread as an underdog, 4-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hilltoppers are 3-1 in bowls, winning last three years while scoring 49-45-51 points, but with a different coach. Georgia State lost its only bowl 27-16 to San Jose State in this same bowl two years ago, which was the first Cure Bowl. C-USA non-conference favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Sun Belt underdogs are 14-13. C-USA favorites covered six of last seven games when playing Sun Belt teams.

Oregon (-7.5) vs Boise State— Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon scored 117 points in winning its last two games after soph QB Herbert got healthy; they’re 7-5 but their coach already bolted for Florida State. Ducks are 4-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State has a junior QB who has made 36 starts; Broncos won eight of last nine games- they won MAC title, scoring 17 points in consecutive games vs Fresno. Boise is 2-0 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Boise is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they won Las Vegas Bowl three years in row, from 2010-12. Oregon lost its last two bowls, 42-20/47-41; average total in their last three bowls: 76.3. Favorites won/covered last three Las Vegas Bowls; Pac-12 teams won their last three visits here. Last three years, Pac-12 favorites are 14-12-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.

Colorado State (-5.5) vs Marshall— Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque
Colorado State is 7-5, dropping 3 of last 4 games, losing 59-52 at home to Boise when they led 35-17 at the half; Rams are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games- they’re 3-5 vs spread as a favorite, 3-5 in games with a single digit spread. CSU has a senior QB who has started 38 games. Marshall lost four of its last five games, losing last two games by total of three points. Thundering Herd is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with a single digit spread- they’ve got a junior QB who has 33 starts. Rams lost their last three bowls, allowing 44.7 ppg- average total in their last five bowls: 74- they lost 61-50 in the Potato Bowl LY. Marshall won its last five bowls, allowing 16 ppg; they’re 10-2 all-time in bowls. Rams won 27-24 here October 20. C-USA teams covered seven of last ten games with Mountain West foes.

Arkansas State (-4) vs Middle Tennessee State, Raycom Media Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State split its last four games, losing 32-25 to Troy in Sun Belt title game; Red Wolves won a game 67-50 this year- they also lost 43-36 at Nebraska, but five of their last six games stayed under total. ASU is 3-2 in games with single-digit spread. Middle Tennessee is 6-6; they were favored by 7+ points in five of six wins- they’re 1-4 as an underdog this year. Blue Raiders’ last three games went over. MTSU lost its last four bowls, allowing 45-52 points in bowls the last two years; ASU is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34.3 ppg in last three. Sun Belt teams won two of first three Camellia Bowls. with an average total of 60. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread in non-league games this year. Last four years, C-USA teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

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Wiseguys are advising to jump on these early bowl odds now
Steve Merril

Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.

Spread to bet now

Florida International (+7) vs. Temple

This line for the Gasparilla Bowl opened +8 and was quickly bet down to +7 before it even opened at some other major sportsbooks. Play it now before it dips below this key number. Florida International will be excited for this game after a 4-8 SU season last year. It is the Panthers' first bowl game in six years. They were a solid 8-4 SU this year and finished the regular season with back-to-back wins in which they scored 104 points combined on offense.

Temple will be less excited for this game after a mediocre 6-6 SU regular season. The Owls were 10-3 SU last year before losing their bowl game as a 12-point favorite. Temple was also 10-3 SU in the 2015 regular season when they lost by 15 points as a 2.5-point bowl favorite. The Owls were a weak offensive team this season, averaging just 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).

Spread to bet now

Appalachian State (+7.5) vs. Toledo

This line for the Dollar General Bowl opened at +8 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now while it remains above the key number of +7. Appalachian State enters with solid offensive momentum as they scored 31 points or more in three of their final four regular season games. Overall, the Mountaineers averaged 33.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this year, while allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

Toledo also enters off three straight wins, but might be a little flat after winning the MAC championship game. Toledo probably was hoping for a better bowl bid after a solid 11-2 SU season. The Rockets were strong offensively this year, but weak on defense as they allowed 5.6 yards per play versus a schedule of weak offensive opponents that averaged just 5.3 yppl overall. Toledo's defense is now taking a substantial step-up in class. The Rockets lost last year, 31-28, versus Appalachian State in the Camellia Bowl.

Total to bet now

Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (52)

This total for the Autonation Cure Bowl has risen a couple points higher since opening. These early minor bowl games do have a tendency to be higher scoring, but that might not be the case in this game with two weak offensive teams. Georgia State averaged a paltry 19.7 points per game this season on just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg on 5.8 yppl). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky averaged just 26.2 points per game on only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 29.7 ppg on 5.8 yppl).

Both offenses were particularly weak down the stretch. Western Kentucky scored 23 points or less in three of their final four regular season games. Georgia State scored only 10 points in each of their final two games. The Panthers have a 5-1 Under mark in their past six games overall. Last year, Georgia State managed just 16 total points in this same bowl game.

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CAPPING THE COACHES
Jason Logan

One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

Perhaps the biggest coaching change, as it pertains to bowl season, is Scott Frost leaving Central Florida for the job at Nebraska ahead of the Knights' showdown with Auburn as 9.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl. Central Florida was snubbed by the CFP committee, despite an undefeated record, and is hoping Frost will be on the sideline for this finale against a SEC power. As of mid-December, Frost is back with the team and running practices and looks like he will coach on New Year’s Day. But, should those plans fall through closer to kickoff, it will be interesting to see where the team’s head is at.

Another big-name coaching move this bowl season is Jimbo Fisher bailing on Florida State for Texas A&M, replacing Kevin Sumlin and putting interim coach Jeff Banks in charge of the Aggies (+3) versus Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl. Fisher’s former programs, the Seminoles, barely became bowl eligible after a disastrous season, and will now face Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl, giving 15.5 points to the Golden Eagles on December 27.

Long-time defensive line coach Odell Haggins will step in as interim coach for the bowl game. While Haggins commands a lot of respect, being with the programs since 1994, many of those FSU standouts have to be thinking about their place in new head coach Willie Taggart’s system in 2018. Even Haggins has to be polishing his resume, not knowing his future in Tallahassee.

Taggart left Oregon before its showdown with Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and had Mario Cristobal in place as an interim for the bowl game. However, with so much support – especially from the Ducks roster - Cristobal was eventually promoted to head coach and is hoping to ride that momentum to a victory over the Broncos on December 16. Oregon opened -5.5 and is now giving 7.5 points in Las Vegas.

In a funny twist, Arizona State will have recently-fired head coach Todd Graham on the sideline for the Sun Devils' matchups with North Carolina State in the Sun Bowl. Graham was axed at the end of the year - replaced by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards - but he and his staff are hoping the players send them off as winners, despite oddsmakers pegging ASU as a 6.5-point underdog against the Wolfpack in El Paso, Texas.

Mississippi State takes on Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl on December minus head coach Dan Mullen, who leaves the Bulldogs for SEC rival Florida. That has interim Greg Knox running things this month as new head coach Joe Moorehead hits the recruiting trail and puts his staff together for 2018. Mississippi State is a 6.5-point underdog for this game at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.

Rounding out the coaching moves this bowl season is Chad Morris leaving SMU for Arkansas, with the Mustangs as 5-point faves versus Louisiana Tech in the DXL Frisco Bowl. Southern Methodist will look to interim coach Jeff Traylor, who will then go with Morris to the run the Razorbacks. So, who knows where his focus will be for this December 20 game in Frisco, Texas.

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DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION
Jason Logan

Bowl season is many things to many teams.

To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.

Which programs are just happy to be invited to a bowl game and which ones are actually serious about winning? The first step college football bettors should take when looking at potential plays, is to call out any teams disappointed with the bowl they’ve drawn. While some could lack motivation, this situation usually serves as motivation with a chip on the team’s shoulder.

With the implementation of the College Football Playoffs, there has been a new factor thrown into the bowl betting mix with teams sitting just outside the Final Four feeling the sting of the playoff snub heading into their respective bowl game. This time around, Big Ten champ Ohio State didn’t receive an invite, leaving football bettors to question how the Buckeyes players will react to this letdown.

Ohio State settles for a showdown with Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl, despite winning the Big Ten Championship over then-undefeated Wisconsin. The Buckeyes were edged by Alabama – a one-loss SEC team that didn’t play for its conference title. Oddsmakers currently have OSU pegged as a 7.5-point favorite versus the Trojans in Texas.

Another team feeling disrespected this bowl season could be Central Florida, which finished the regular season 12-0 following a victory in the AAC Championship Game. The Knights were a long shot to squeak into the CFP Final Four but still held out hope of a playoff berth. Instead, UCF is playing Auburn in the Peach Bowl, getting very little respect from books and bettors. It opened +8.5 and is now up to a 9.5-point underdog in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.

Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports calls these “Just glad to be there” teams.

“This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”

Littering the bowl season landscape are a number of six-win squads, that just barely qualified for postseason consideration: Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Texas Tech, Utah, Duke, UCLA, Florida State, Texas, Virginia, Navy, New Mexico State, and Utah State all made the bowl grade by the skin of their teeth. Football bettors should do a deep dive into how coaches, players, and even fan bases feel about their respective postseason contests.

Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.

The longest bowl drought being quenched this month is a 57-year bowl absence by the New Mexico State Aggies, making their first bowl appearance since 1960. The Aggies just became bowl eligible with a win in the season finale and now travel to Tucson to play Utah State in the Arizona Bowl on December 29. New Mexico State opened as a 3-point favorite but action against the Aggies has moved this spread all the way to NMSU +4.

The UAB Blazers will be pumped up for their first bowl appearance since 2004, when they face Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl on December 22. There is extra emotion rolling into this bowl appearance as well, as UAB’s football program was shuttered for two years before returning to action this season, finishing 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. Alabama-Birmingham is a 7.5-point underdog in Nassau.

Lane Kiffin has Florida Atlantic playing in its first bowl game since 2008, guiding the Owls to a 10-3 SU record (9-4 ATS). They face the Akron Zips as 22.5-point chalk in the Boca Raton Bowl, playing on their home field for this December 19 contest.

Other teams snapping bowl droughts this month are: Southern Methodist (2012), Arizona State (2012), Purdue (2013), as well as Missouri and Texas, who both haven’t been to a bowl game since 2014 and met in the Texas Bowl on December 27 with the Tigers set as field-goal favorites.

One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2014-15 bowl schedule found Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth straight season, losing to Toledo 63-44 as a 3.5-point underdog in Mobile, Alabama.

“Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become disinterested,” notes Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

South Florida is back in the Birmingham Bowl for the second straight year, set as a 2.5-point favorite versus Texas Tech on December 23. The Bulls, who edged South Carolina in a wildly-entertaining 46-39 overtime victory in this bowl last season, could be a little flat after earning another trip to Alabama following a crushing loss to UCF in their regular season finale. On top of that, the bowl organizers somehow messed up the school’s name on the official game t-shirts, going with “South Florida University” instead of the proper title, “University of South Florida”.

Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars are back in the Holiday Bowl, facing Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites. The Cougars lost to another Big Ten school, Minnesota, as 8.5-point chalk in San Diego last year. The venue switches to SDCCU Stadium in 2017 and Leach will be on the sideline for WSU after rumors he was in the running for the Tennessee job. He’s also in the hunt for a new contract extension.

Louisiana State makes its second straight stint in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, sitting as a field-goal fave to Notre Dame. The Tigers beat down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson 29-9 as 3-point chalk. While this is a repeat bowl appearance, LSU doesn’t mind a spot on the January 1 schedule against the Fighting Irish.

And while it’s not a repeat in a particular bowl, Appalachian State and Toledo meet in a rematch of last year’s Camellia Bowl – a 31-28 win by the Mountaineers as 1-point favorites – when the connect for a December 23 date in the Dollar General Bowl. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites in this rare bowl revenge spot in Mobile, Alabama.

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TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVES AND TAKES AWAY
Jason Logan

The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is on my side. YES IT IS!

All three famed phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and its postseason bowl appearance.

Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.

“The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre Over or Under-performance by teams involved,” says Steve Merril.

A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against, with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.

The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports.

A good example are the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished the schedule on a five-game winning streak, becoming bowl eligible along the way and earning a ticket to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Chippewas, who are sitting at a pick’em facing Wyoming on December 22, will have had nearly a month off between the bowl and their final game of the season.

Northwestern was one of the hottest teams in college football, closing the 2017 campaign on a seven-game winning streak and earning a spot in the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will have been off for more than a month when they take on the other Wildcats as touchdown favorites on December 29.

The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.

Auburn is hoping the lengthy hiatus can heal up star running back Kerryon Johnson, who is listed as question with a shoulder injury for the Tigers’ date with UCF in the Peach Bowl. Johnson, who rushed for 1,320 yards and a team-high 19 touchdowns, will have just about a full month to recover between the Tigers’ loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and that New Year’s Day bowl appearance. Auburn could also get linebacker Tre Williams back from a shoulder injury as well.

The bowl break has also allowed Boise State to return two key weapons on offense for its matchup with Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Tight end Jake Roh and running back Alexander Mattison are expected to be back from ankle injuries, with the Broncos set as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Ducks on December 16.

Wyoming is hoping that month-long pause is enough to get quarterback Josh Allen back in working order for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against CMU. Allen passed for 13 touchdowns and ran in another five but injured his throwing shoulder on November 11 and missed the final two games of the season – both losses for the Cowboys.

Will Grier is hoping to be under center for West Virginia’s appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, taking on Utah on December 26. Grier underwent surgery on his broken middle finger on his passing hand in late November and is doubtful for the Mountaineers’ postseason game. Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns, was replaced by sophomore QB Chris Chugunov in the season finale loss to Oklahoma, completely just 10 of 20 passes for 137 yards.

The Marshall Thundering Herd did get too much downtime between the end of the season and their showcase versus Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 16, but it was enough of a break to get leading receiver Tyre Brady healthy. He’s caught 56 balls for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Marshall is a 5.5-point underdog to CSU.

And UCLA and top NFL Draft prospect Josh Rosen is likely to be on the field for the Bruins versus Kansas State in the Catcus Bowl on December 26. Rosen exited the season finale against Cal with a shoulder injury but the time off has allowed him to be ready for his final college outing.

While the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.

Washington State cut top receiver Tavares Martin Jr. for a violation of team rules last week, leaving the Cougars without their two best outside receiving targets after fellow WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack decided to leave Wazzu and transfer to a school closer to his family in Florida.

Georgia linebacker Natrez Patrick was running the risk of being suspended for the Bulldogs’ Rose Bowl matchup against Oklahoma due to drug charges following UGA’s win in the SEC Championship. However, the charges were dropped and the team has yet to hand down any punishment. Patrick was suspended four games earlier this year for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.

Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the Bookmakers during the bowl break.

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Proximity to location a big factor for college football teams during bowl season
Ashton Grewal

There are three things you need to know before you bet any college football game this bowl season: who’s playing, what’s the pointspread and where is it being played.

Last year teams that traveled fewer miles than their opponents went 29-12 straight up (22-19 ATS) in the 41 college football bowls including the national championship game.

This wasn’t a one-year fluke either. Steve Yoost submitted a study to the Sport Journal in 2009 on the geographical effects on college bowl games. He looked at all 47 BCS bowl games from 1998 to 2009 to try and determine how proximity to a bowl game location can factor as an advantage.

He found that teams with the shorter trip covered the spread at a 55 percent rate (26-21) and 58 percent (24-17) when excluding games with negligible distance differences between the two traveling teams.

Yoost concluded the bowl system needs to be changed so that there wouldn’t be as much of a built-in advantage for schools playing in their own backyard. The problem is, of course, the people deciding the matchups aren’t interested in making things fair. They want the games to sellout and there to be enough local interest so that tickets can be marked up.

It’s much easier to drum up interest when one of the teams playing is essentially a home team. Take Florida Atlantic for example. The Owls will be playing in their home stadium for this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. Last year’s announced attendance for the game was a little over 25,000 in a stadium that holds 30,000, but pictures tell a story different story.

The Boca Raton Bowl committee is thrilled to have a locate team to pedal in its quest to sell this game out. Florida Atlantic opened as 17.5-point chalk against Akron but the line was quickly bet up to 22.5.

Here are a few more games with a large disparity in distance between the invited schools.

Military Bowl
Navy vs. Virginia
Odds: Pick, 55
Location: Navy’s home field

Liberty Bowl
Memphis vs. Iowa State
Odds: Memphis -3.5, 66
Location: Memphis’ home field

Orange Bowl
Miami vs. Wisconsin
Odds: Wisconsin -6.5, 45
Location: Miami’s home field

Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
Odds: Wake -3, 64.5
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC – a little over an hour away from Wake’s campus.

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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST
New York Stallion Series Stakes - 5th Avenue Division
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#5 MISS HOT STONES
#2 PURE SILVER
#6 WEGETSTHEMUNNYS
#3 AUNT BABE

The New York Stallion Series was created by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. Fifth Avenue is a noted street in the New York City borough of Manhattan, dividing the borough's East and West sides. Here in the 32nd running of The 5th Avenue, #5 MISS HOT STONES has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her three career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start. The morning line favorite is #2 PURE SILVER, who drops in class (-2), is the speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five outings, including back-to-back, "POWER RUN WINS" in her 4th and 5th races back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 16, 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 GUNTHER 3/1

# 6 GRAND FASHIONED 10/1

# 5 WITT STAMP 4/1

GUNTHER looks respectable to best this field. Expect a much stronger performance with the drop. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 86 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this group. GRAND FASHIONED - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. Caldwell has one of the top winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. WITT STAMP - Has been running solidly lately and will probably be up on the front end early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:05pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 106 Rampart S. (Grade 3)

Rating: 3

#4 KING'S GHOST (ML=15/1)
#1 CURLIN'S APPROVAL (ML=8/5)
#3 LEWIS BAY (ML=7/2)


KING'S GHOST - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this mare to be long gone. I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. CURLIN'S APPROVAL - Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this thoroughbred at the top of my list of top contenders. Based on morning drills, I look for this filly to run a big race. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think her answer would be Gulfstream Park. LEWIS BAY - This filly's last race was back on November 26th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a vacation. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Earnings per race entered is something that I think can be an extremely key selection factor. This animal is ranked the highest in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NONNA MELA (ML=5/2), #5 ALPINE SKY (ML=6/1),

NONNA MELA - Don't think this mount will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class figure. ALPINE SKY - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (101/97/90) of Equibase speed figures. Recorded a pedestrian speed rating last time out in the Chilukki on November 4th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 KING'S GHOST to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4] Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,3,4] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[1,3,4] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,5,6] with [1,2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 ROCK ALL DAY 3/5

# 1 YODEL UP A STORM 7/2

# 6 REALLY A PRINCESS 20/1

ROCK ALL DAY looks to be a solid contender. Will probably go to the front end and might never look back. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent speed figs with an average of 75. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. YODEL UP A STORM - Is a solid contender based on figs put up as of late under today's conditions. Could best this group of animals here, showing very good figs of late. REALLY A PRINCESS - Solid average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 4

$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 4-5-6)


Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 1:28P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LEAGUE OF SHADOWS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LEAGUE OF SHADOWS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Hor se has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CONFIRMED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. Today is a s print and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
1
LEAGUE OF SHADOWS
3/1

9/5
7
CONFIRMED
7/5

6/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
LEAGUE OF SHADOWS
1

3/1
Front-runner
82

69

98.6

65.4

60.9
7
CONFIRMED
7

7/5
Alternator/Front-runner
0

0

69.2

61.5

56.5
4
SOFT TRIP
4

8/1
Trailer
76

62

48.8

65.2

57.7
2
SON OF THE SOUTH
2

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
84

76

87.8

60.7

54.7
3
CHIN TU
3

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

84.4

59.7

51.7
6
HEAD OF THE LINE
6

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

61.0

34.1

23.1
5
TROJAN THE WILDCAT
5

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

30.3

28.4

15.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)(.50 Cent Minimum)


Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $43,350 • Post: 7:07P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MORHAWK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GAME BIRD: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. ALARM SYSTEM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LIKE A COWBOY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LINNAEUS: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
9
MORHAWK
5/2

5/1
3
GAME BIRD
3/1

6/1
5
ALARM SYSTEM
5/1

7/1
1
LIKE A COWBOY
15/1

9/1
4
LINNAEUS
9/2

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
LINNAEUS
4

9/2
Front-runner
74

71

75.2

70.0

56.5
8
COVINGTON QUALITY
8

20/1
Front-runner
72

74

59.0

59.0

48.0
1
LIKE A COWBOY
1

15/1
Stalker
84

78

66.2

63.6

57.1
3
GAME BIRD
3

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
83

80

77.6

73.8

66.3
5
ALARM SYSTEM
5

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
81

83

70.0

72.4

64.9
9
MORHAWK
9

5/2
Trailer
84

79

76.9

75.4

70.4
6
PHANTOM MENACE
6

6/1
Trailer
71

73

68.9

66.2

56.2
7
IMALITTLEHAZEY
7

15/1
Trailer
79

77

68.3

69.2

60.7
2
VISCOSITY
2

20/1
Alternator/Trailer
81

70

31.3

57.8

42.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,100 Class Rating: 73

Rating: 4

#8 WORKTAB (ML=8/1)
#4 AZOR AHAI (ML=5/1)


WORKTAB - I unquestionably see favorable signs for this thoroughbred right here. AZOR AHAI - Aboard this animal on November 30th and Mayta is yet again in the irons in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KENTUCKY KITTEN (ML=7/2), #3 ROCKET WARRIOR (ML=4/1), #7 SUN KITTY (ML=5/1),

KENTUCKY KITTEN - This colt hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races. SUN KITTY - Not the right 'placement' in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #8 WORKTAB to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 16, 2017

NFL (305) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS (306) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Take: under

Reason: Your free play for Satudray, December 16, 2017 is in the NFL contest between the Chargers and the Chiefs. Thiis is a huge game for these two teams and their respective playoff chances. It wasn't too long ago that the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Chargers 0-4. Now, these teams are both tied for the AFC lead. This game will have all the atmosphere of a playoff game. The Chiefs have a terrible rush defense, 30th in the league. The Chiefs offensive line will also have to contend with a very good Charges defensive rush, tied for fifth with 37 sacks. The Chargers are 1-7 O/U in their last eight games and 0-4 O/U in their last four away games. The Chiefs are 1-4 O/U in their last five games, 6-14 O/U their last 20 at home vs a team with a winning record. In addition, the Chiefs are 19-42 O/U in their last 61 home games. With five of the last seven in this series going UNDER, I'm sticking with the UNDER here on Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

SAT: OVER the total 61 Mid Tenn/Ark St