Saturday 12-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Saturday, Dec 16 is:

Edmonton Oilers +105 over Minnesota Wild.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOMMY BRUNSON

When these teams played in the Sun Belt Conference, it was the Trojans holding the upper-hand, as Troy captured 7 of the 8 meetings straight up between 2005-12. True, that has been more than a couple of years ago, but I am counting on Troy and their superior defense to take care of business in NOLA this Saturday afternoon, much the way they did last season in the Dollar General Bowl when they took down MAC rep Ohio U, 28-23.

The Trojans enter this year's bowl game riding a 6-game winning streak, and have covered in each of their last 3 wins - all as the favorite. It is a Troy team that went into Baton Rouge in late September and upset LSU, 24-21 as the near 3-TD underdog. Now they did suffer a "letdown" the following week against South Alabama, but all told, Troy ended things with 10 wins in their 12 games. Their defense did not allow more than 25 points in ANY of their games this year, and held 6 of their last 9 foes to 19 points or less! That's solid defense.

Compare that to the Mean Green/Eagles of North Texas who allowed 30 points or more 7 times in 13 games this year, and you can see why North Texas is getting around a touchdown today. Remember that all 4 of North Texas' losses this season were by wide margins - 17-points or more - so don't fret about laying the wood with Troy in this spot.

North Texas may be a little more dangerous on offense, but the Troy defense is the tide-turner today.

Lay it with the Trojans!

4* TROY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free pick is going to be on the Georgia State Panthers, catching the points against Western Kentucky today in bowl action.

The Panthers book-ended their season with consecutive losses, losing the first two of the season and dropping their last two in the campaign. But in between this was a team that played with enough heart that leads me to believe it can hang with the Hilltoppers.

Western Kentucky lost four of its last five in the season, and it's also a team that progressively got worst at keeping teams out of the end zone.

The Hilltoppers allowed an average of 35.5 over their last six games. So even though they ranked 50th overall on defense, keep in mind they were much better in the first half of the season.

The two other telling intangibles in playing against Western Kentucky come from the red zone. The Hilltoppers rank 120th with their red zone offense, and 102nd with their red zone defense. That is where this team is going to suffer against Georgia State.

Take the underdog, as this could come down to the end. Don't be surprised if the Panthers win this one outright.

1* GEORGIA STATE

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ERIC SCHROEDER

I'm going to hit the gridiron for Saturday's free play, and I'll take a look at this game between the Marshall Thundering Herd and Colorado State Rams. I actually like the underdog here, as I think Marshall will steal this one outright. I'm playing the Herd plus the points, but I will have a small piece on the moneyline as well.

Interestingly enough about these teams, close to two months ago they both were in the hunt for conference championships in the Mountain West and C-USA.

Then the Rams finished on a 1-3 skid, and the Thundering Herd lost four of their last five. But I know there is talent across the board with each roster, and with both teams having several weeks to prepare, they'll both be fresh and motivated to end their seasons with a victory.

Marshall is a team that saw three of those final losses by five points or less. Trust me when I tell you this team could have nine or 10 wins. And knowing Colorado State had a rugged non-conference schedule that included Alabama, the Herd will step their game up to challenge the Rams.

The star of this one? Marshall quarterback Chase Litton, who completed more than 60 percent of his passes for 2,853 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Rams were torched for more than 200 yards passing eight different times this season, and will be vulnerable to the big play today.

Take the pup.

4* MARSHALL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOMMY BRUNSON

One of the first things I look for come this time of the season - bowl season, is how schools have fared in the past in their bowl games, as some coaches just seem to do a better job than other coaches, as some teams are just ready to "go bowling" while others seem happy to be there and enjoy their end of the season "perk trip".

In this New Mexico Bowl we have a good example of the theory I just mentioned, as both Marshall and Colorado State play this one in Albuquerque with identical 7-5 ledgers, but that is about where the similarities end, as it is clear Thundering Herd head coach Doc Holliday gets his teams prepared a little better than Rams head coach Mike Bobo.

Marshall did not make it to a bowl game last season, as they finished 2016 just 3-9 on the year. The Herd though have won and covered their previous 4 bowl games under Holliday in his 8th season at the helm! That's pretty darn solid when you consider a play today on Marshall gets you some solid points to work with.

One of the reasons Colorado State is listed as this "big" of a favorite is because they are familiar with the venue having won a regular season game on this field versus the Lobos of New Mexico. Do keep in mind that bowl games and Mike Bobo have NOT been a winning mix, as this will be the Rams 5th straight bowl trip, and they come in at 0-4 against the spread, losing their last 3. Last season the Rams allowed a whopping 61-points to Idaho in the Famous Potato Bowl! The Rams last bowl win came on this field in 2013, but they did not cover that game.

I see a similar outcome today, as the Rams may have a slight advantage on offense, but the Thundering Herd does own the better defense and special teams - making the points that much more valuable.

Colorado State failed their last 6 games against the spread leading up to this Saturday contest, and a look at the Herd's last 4 games shows none decided by more than 5-points either way. Marshall also covered ALL 5 tries this season when installed as the underdog.

I like Marshall to cover again.

2* MARSHALL (On a 1* to 5* basis)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Chargers to keep on charging as they take over first place in the AFC West with the win at Kansas City.

Los Angeles is among the hottest teams in the NFL as we head down the stretch, as the Chargers hit Arrowhead Stadium riding a 4-game winning streak. They have also won 7 of their last 9 straight up, while covering in 7 of their last 9 contests.

Kansas City? Well, the Chiefs did record a home win over Oakland last Sunday to stop the bleeding, but there is no disguising the fact KC was once 5-0, and they now stand at 7-6. It doesn't take Einstein to see that that is a 2-6 slide their last 8 games straight up.

The Chiefs do own the last 7 series wins, but the Chargers have covered in their last pair of visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

Stick with the hot Bolts on Saturday night.

3* L.A. CHARGERS

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JOEY JUICE

Let's back the Cleveland Cavaliers as they host the Utah Jazz who are on the road for the second game of a back-to-back after surprising Boston in Boston by 12 last night. That impressive win gives us tremendous line value with Cleveland tonight. Cleveland won their third in a row, and 16th in the last 17 games by beating the Lakers 121-114 at home Thursday night.

A look inside the numbers reveals a clear advantage for the Cleveland Cavaliers as the banged-up Utah Jazz are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.

The Cavs on the other hand are rolling and they’re getting healthier and healthier as stars Isiah Thomas and Tristan Thompson get set to return soon.

It took everything they had to beat the Celtics last night, and Utah will have nothing left in the tank for Cleveland tonight. The Cavaliers are the play.

5* CLEVELAND

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ANDRE RAMIREZ
NFL | Dec 16, 2017
Chargers vs. Chiefs
46 OVER

The Chargers just bumped their winning streak to four in a row last week with a 30-13 victory over Washington. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead, let the Redskins get within 13-6 then scored the next 17 points of the game, on its way toward an easy cover of a six-point spread.

On the day, the Chargers outgained Washington 488-201, made 24 first downs, compared to nine for the Redskins, won the ground battle 174-65 and ground out a 35-25 time of possession advantage.

So Los Angeles has now outgained each of its last four opponents, three of them by 130 yards and more. The Chargers are also 7-2 both SU and ATS over their last nine games.

At 7-6 overall, Los Angeles is tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs but does not own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers also trail 7-6 Buffalo by a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. So this game is crucial for Los Angeles.

This game will be shootout, but I like the Chargers to pull the victory here. Chargers 34-23. Lay the money on the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Western Kentucky vs Georgia State

Panthers (+) over Hilltoppers- Neither of these clubs made a profit this season as Georgia State was just 4-7 ATS and WKY was even worse going 3-9 ATS and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Panthers enter off two losses and return to the Cure Bowl after a year absence. Take GEORGIA STATE!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Colorado State -3.5

The Colorado State Rams were expected to compete for a Mountain West title this season with all they had returning. But they failed to live up to expectations. They went just 7-5 in the regular season for a third consecutive year, and now Mike Bobo’s job is perhaps on the line.

There’s no question the Rams will be motivated. They have lost three straight bowl games overall, including the last two in the favorite role. They lost as 15-point favorites to Idaho last year as they failed to show up. This senior-laden team will want to get their first taste of a bowl victory in this one.

I also think Colorado State is undervalued after losing three of its final four games to close out the season. But one of those losses was a 52-59 (OT) loss to Boise State in which they blew a 24-point lead. That 52-point effort just shows the kind of firepower this offense has against a very good Boise State defense.

Senior QB Nick Stevens wants to try to impress NFL scouts one last time. He leads a potent Colorado State offense that will be the best unit on the field Saturday. The Rams average 501 yards per game and 6.7 per play. They have a balanced attack with 211 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry, as well as 290 passing yards per game and 8.5 per attempt. I believe they simply outscore Marshall here.

I also like the fact that Colorado State is familiar with the field for the New Mexico Bowl. The Rams beat the Lobos 27-24 in New Mexico earlier this season. They are used to the altitude, while Marshall is not. They will also have a lot more fans there as it’s a much shorter trip for Colorado State fans than Marshall fans.

Marshall feasted on an easy early schedule to get off to a 6-1 start. But the Thundering Herd came back down to earth down the stretch against some better competition. They went just 1-4 in their final five games. Now they have a laundry list of injuries and possible suspensions, most notably on the offensive and defensive lines.

The Thundering Herd have a poor offense and won’t be able to keep up. They average just 370 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. They do have a good defense, but they haven’t seen many offenses as potent as Colorado State this season.

The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado State is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games. We are getting the better team here in the Rams at just over a field goal, and they’ll be highly motivated while also playing in familiar surroundings. Bet Colorado State Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS

This is a 1* Free Play on Arkansas State (8:00 EST).

The 6-6 MTSU Blue Raiders get ready to battle 7-4 Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Red Wolves.

MTSU comes in having won three of its last four, while Arkansas State will be eager to get back with one more victory here after falling to Troy in its regular season finale.

The Blue Raiders have a balanced rushing and passing offense. QB Brent Stockskill took over half way through the year and sports a 14/5 TD/INT. This team is used to outscoring its competition, so its defense is the weak point.

Arkansas State is another team with an explosive offense. QB Justice Hansen averages 330 passing yards, to go along with 35 rushing yards per game. In the end Hansen posted a total of 34 TD’s combined through the air and on the ground this season. Like their counterpart today, the Red Wolves weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but the unit is a step up, having forced 10 fumbles and 11 INT’s this year.

I’ll point out as well that MTSU is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games, while Arkansas State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a favorite.

Hansen has only been sacked 27 times this year and the Blue Raiders don’t have much of a pass rush. Simply put, I think the Red Wolves have a distinct advantage in at least two of the three phases and because of that, I’ll indeed recommend a second look at Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl this year.

Good luck…Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

PLAY ON Detroit +19.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET

After a brutal slate of 5 straight games vs top notch competition, we expect Michigan to exhale so to speak and have a letdown here. The Wolverines have played North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA, and Texas leading into this one. They are coming off a huge upset win @ Texas and we just don’t see them being at their peak physically or mentally in this game. There is a good chance Michigan will be without top scorer and rebounder Mo Wagner in this one after he injured his ankle @ Texas. Head coach John Beilein said Wagner is not anywhere near 100% and they will make a decision at game time. Don’t be surprised if he sits with much bigger games on the horizon. This game is at the Little Caesars Center, the brand new home of the Detroit Pistons. The Detroit players have been looking forward to this game since the season tipped over a month ago. Four of the five Titan starters are from Michigan and many had aspirations of playing for the Wolverines. The only non-Michigan bred starter is Kameron Chatman who transferred to Detroit after playing 2 years at Michigan. On top of that, Detroit’s head coach, Bacari Alexander, was an assistant at Michigan under Beilein from 2010 – 2016. He knows Michigan’s intricate offensive system as well as anyone giving Detroit an inside advantage here. It will be tough for Michigan to cover this huge number because Detroit can score. They average almost 90 PPG and have 5 guys averaging at least 10 PPG. This sets up as a very dangerous game for the Wolves facing an opponent who is viewing this as their “game of the year”. Too many points here in a game we feel will be much tighter than the number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-F | Dec 16, 2017
Marshall vs. Colorado State
Marshall+4

I'm recommending a play on Marshall plus the points in Saturday's New Mexico Bowl. Marshall HC Doc Holliday knows a thing or two about preparing his team for postseason play, winning four straight bowl games. The seniors have added motivation, knowing if they beat Colorado State, they'll have completed a perfect 4-0 bowl sweep during their college careers. Things have not gone so well for the Rams under HC Mike Bobo, going 0-2 SU as bowl chalk the last two seasons. Bobo also faces changes to his coaching staff with his OC already heading to Tennessee and his DC retiring after this game. Then there's the motivation or possible lack thereof with CSU returning to Albuquerque...again! Between bowl games and conference play against New Mexico, this will be the 5th time they've played here in five seasons. We'll back Marshall plus the points in opening day bowl action. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, December 16

Portland won seven of last ten games with Charlotte; home side won eight of last nine series games. Blazers are 1-3 vs spread in last four visits here. Last four series games stayed under the total. Portland won five of its last six road games; they’re 3-2-1 as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Charlotte lost nine of its last 11 games; they’re 6-5 as home favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under.

Home side won last seven Utah-Cleveland games; Jazz is 1-3-1 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Utah lost four of last five games but beat Celtics in Boston Friday; they’re 4-5 as road underdogs. Last four Utah games went over the total. Cavs won 16 of last 17 games; they’re 3-13 vs spread as a home favorite. Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

Carmelo Anthony returns to NYC; Thunder won its last four games with New York, winning by 9-6 points in last two visits here. Five of last seven series games stayed under. Oklahoma City won in triple OT in Philly last nite; they won six of last eight games, are 4-11 vs spread on road. Three of their last four games went over total. Knicks won four of last five games; they’re 13-5 vs spread at home. Five of their last six games went over the total.

Clippers won four of last five games with Miami; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five trips to South Beach. Last six series games stayed under total. Clippers won three of last four games, covered five of last six; they’re 4-6 as road underdogs. LA’s last three games stayed under the total. Heat won three of its last four games; they’re 1-5 as a home favorite. Ten of last eleven Miami games stayed under the total.

Minnesota won five of last six games with Phoenix; three of last four series games went over the total. Suns are 1-2-1 vs spread in last four visits here. Phoenix lost seven of its last eight games; they’re 7-5 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Minnesota won three of last four games; they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight games as a home fave. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

Home side won last five Milwaukee-Houston games; Bucks are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Houston. Four of last six series games went over total. Milwaukee lost its last two games after a 6-1 run; they’re 3-6 vs spread as road underdogs. Over is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. Rockets won their last 11 games (6-4-1 vs spread); they’re 7-7 as home favorites. Four of their last five games went over the total.

Spurs won eight of last ten games with Dallas, but lost by 6 to them Tuesday; last three series games played here went over the total. Mavericks covered their last three visits to the Alamo. Dallas lost four of its last five games; they’re 6-7 as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. San Antonio lost its last two games; they’re 8-5 as home faves. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Celtics won their last three games with Memphis; they’re 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Tennessee. Six of last seven series games went over total. Boston lost three of last five games; they’re 6-3 as road favorites. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Grizzlies lost nine of last 11 games; they’re 3-4 vs spread as home underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, December 16

Trend Report

PORTLAND @ CHARLOTTE
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Portland

UTAH @ CLEVELAND
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah

OKLAHOMA CITY @ NEW YORK
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games

MILWAUKEE @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

LA CLIPPERS @ MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing Miami
LA Clippers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers

PHOENIX @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix

DALLAS @ SAN ANTONIO
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas

BOSTON @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Memphis's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Boston