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Dr. Bob - NBA ... Was 3-1 last night
**Denver (+5 ½) over MINNESOTA
Rotation #713 – 5:05 pm Pacific
I was on Denver on consecutive nights at Portland and at Golden State and the Nuggets won both teams handily, beating the Blazers by 17 points and besting the Warriors by 15 points the next night. I played on Denver because backup PG Emmanuel Mudiay was injured and I pass on playing Denver last night against the Jazz because Mudiay was due back and I thought he’d take his spot as the #2 point guard back. Mudiay didn’t play until less than 2 minutes remained in the game with the the Nuggets having a huge lead in what would be a 24 point win. If Mudiay is out of the rotation, which it appears he is, then I’m on the Nuggets.
Mudiay is a terrible player who had a plus-minus of -133 points last season on a team that was +42 points overall (so, +175 without him on the court) and he’s been even worse this season. The Nuggets now have a total scoring margin of +57 points but they’ve been outscored by 140 points in 613 minutes with Mudiay on the floor (-11.0 points per 48 minutes) while outscoring opponents by 197 points in 1029 minutes (+9.2 points per 48) when Mudiay is sitting on the bench. I don’t think that Denver is 9.2 points better than an average team but 1029 minutes is a pretty big sample size (21 games) and I do rate the Nuggets at 5 points better than an average team with Mudiay out and star Nikola Jokic back in the lineup. I like Minnesota’s current rotation but I’d favor the Timberwolves by only 2 points in this game even after accounting for their rest advantage. I’ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
**Denver (+5 ½) over MINNESOTA
Rotation #713 – 5:05 pm Pacific
I was on Denver on consecutive nights at Portland and at Golden State and the Nuggets won both teams handily, beating the Blazers by 17 points and besting the Warriors by 15 points the next night. I played on Denver because backup PG Emmanuel Mudiay was injured and I pass on playing Denver last night against the Jazz because Mudiay was due back and I thought he’d take his spot as the #2 point guard back. Mudiay didn’t play until less than 2 minutes remained in the game with the the Nuggets having a huge lead in what would be a 24 point win. If Mudiay is out of the rotation, which it appears he is, then I’m on the Nuggets.
Mudiay is a terrible player who had a plus-minus of -133 points last season on a team that was +42 points overall (so, +175 without him on the court) and he’s been even worse this season. The Nuggets now have a total scoring margin of +57 points but they’ve been outscored by 140 points in 613 minutes with Mudiay on the floor (-11.0 points per 48 minutes) while outscoring opponents by 197 points in 1029 minutes (+9.2 points per 48) when Mudiay is sitting on the bench. I don’t think that Denver is 9.2 points better than an average team but 1029 minutes is a pretty big sample size (21 games) and I do rate the Nuggets at 5 points better than an average team with Mudiay out and star Nikola Jokic back in the lineup. I like Minnesota’s current rotation but I’d favor the Timberwolves by only 2 points in this game even after accounting for their rest advantage. I’ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.
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