Thursday 1-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:34 PM EASTERN POST
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $57,000.00 PURSE

#2 IRON POWER
#5 BECKER'S GALAXY
#4 CHARMING INDY
#6 TAOISEACH

#2 IRON POWER takes a class drop (-8), and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+5) in his 3rd race back. #5 BECKER'S GALAXY, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Rudy Rodriguez send him "postward" this afternoon ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 350 entries saddled as a team to date.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 58

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 GOODBEE 7/2

# 3 MARY B GOOD 4/1

# 1 SUCKERFORAGREY 8/1

GOODBEE looks to be a very good contender. Might best this group of horses here, showing strong figures of late. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. Decent jockey and handler combo winning 18 percent of their races working together. MARY B GOOD - Looks respectable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. Looks very good to be up near the front end at the first call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #5 - Post: 3:05pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: 4

#4 MINISTER OF WAR (ML=6/1)
#6 HALF FAST ROSE (ML=5/2)


MINISTER OF WAR - This mare should give a strong account of herself in today's event. HALF FAST ROSE - On Dec 3rd this mare shipped in to win and looks good right back. When this jockey and handler are put together you have to take a look. Pedroza and David have been terrific together. She has the topmost earnings per start (EPS). Take a good look at this thoroughbred.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN (ML=7/2), #3 PURELY BLESSED (ML=9/2), #2 PINKING OF YOU (ML=5/1),

LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN - This mare in all probability won't be right there near the finish line. PURELY BLESSED - This racer will probably need at least one more race after the lackluster showing following the long turnout. PINKING OF YOU - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to earn a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt route.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 MINISTER OF WAR on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 10

$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5


Claiming $16,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 5:08P
(RAIL AT 96 FEET). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT SEVEN FURLONGS)
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GRAN SAMAN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GRAN CHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. KING MAURO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
11
GRAN SAMAN
8/1

4/1
10
GRAN CHIEF
5/1

5/1
2
KING MAURO
4/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
BODHI DOG
3

30/1
Front-runner
78

75

119.8

74.0

59.5
11
GRAN SAMAN
11

8/1
Front-runner
83

83

115.8

79.8

74.8
5
CHANGING LEADS
5

12/1
Stalker
71

66

62.6

62.6

44.1
10
GRAN CHIEF
10

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
92

90

124.4

72.4

65.9
1
TIDE OF THE DESERT
1

12/1
Alternator/Stalker
85

81

117.0

77.6

61.1
6
WORD ON THE STREET
6

7/2
Trailer
83

75

95.7

80.6

74.6
4
RORY
4

8/1
Trailer
85

76

49.2

76.0

59.0
2
KING MAURO
2

4/1
Trailer
85

80

45.8

79.6

74.6
12
EL CHAVAL
12

30/1
Alternator/Trailer
77

75

91.8

74.3

60.3
9
OURS AGAIN
9

9/2
Alternator/Trailer
83

82

73.8

79.0

63.5
8
MONGOLIAN PARTY
8

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
85

83

78.4

73.2

57.2
7
GODS GREATNESS
7

30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

77

63.4

71.6

54.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #10 - Post: 5:08pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: 3

#11 GRAN SAMAN (ML=8/1)
#10 GRAN CHIEF (ML=5/1)
#9 OURS AGAIN (ML=9/2)


GRAN SAMAN - That last blow out tells me this colt is set for a top effort. Colt has shown some pace. This shorter trip should be better for him. Ran last time out against a much better field at Gulfstream Park. The move down in class ranks should suit him well. GRAN CHIEF - Saez was aboard this colt last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Trainer, Barboza, has been deliberate with this colt off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Good return on investment for this jock and handler duo. OURS AGAIN - Finished fourth at Gulfstream Park last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 9/2 right here, he looks like a possible contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WORD ON THE STREET (ML=7/2), #2 KING MAURO (ML=4/1), #4 RORY (ML=8/1),

WORD ON THE STREET - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs of late. Unlikely to see him doing it this time out either. This mount just hasn't looked sharp recently. KING MAURO - Not probable for this participant to make an impact with no recent success in a short distance contest. This racer has not tallied a win here today in 11 starts. Little chance he wins today. RORY - Looked good on December 14th, finishing third, but no works since is a bit troublesome.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#11 GRAN SAMAN is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [9,10,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [9,10,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[9,10,11] with [9,10,11] with [1,9,10,11,12] with [1,9,10,11,12] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[9,10,11] with [9,10,11] with [1,9,10,11] with [1,4,9,10,11,12] with [1,4,9,10,11,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10800 Class Rating: 87

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 4. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 LEONARDO DA VINCI 6/1

# 4 I WANDA WIN 5/2

# 1 WHAT THE CHUB 7/2

LEONARDO DA VINCI could be the bet in here. Has strong Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this competition. Earned a strong speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. With a strong 85 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. I WANDA WIN - Rodriguez will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this event. At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this bunch. WHAT THE CHUB - Has raced strongly in dirt sprint races. His 79 average has this gelding with among the most respectable speed figures for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 3

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $6,100 • Post: 7:15P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HEAT ROAD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HEAT ROAD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SMARTY KITTEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5
HEAT ROAD
3/1

5/2
1
SMARTY KITTEN
5/2

6/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
HEAT ROAD
5

3/1
Front-runner
81

76

82.1

79.2

70.7
7
THE BUCKEYE KID
7

6/1
Alternator/Front-runner
70

73

56.1

60.5

49.0
3
SIR GARY
3

8/1
Stalker
68

49

69.4

59.0

41.5
1
SMARTY KITTEN
1

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
91

81

64.3

73.7

71.2
8
THIRTEEN ROSES
8

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
77

63

42.0

63.6

54.6
4
RAKEITIN
4

15/1
Alternator/Trailer
86

81

67.2

65.8

58.3
9
BUCKEYE NATION
9

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
76

64

51.0

65.2

49.2
10
CONQUEST SKEDADDLE
10

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80

80

78.5

60.0

52.5
6
FRENCH BADGE
6

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
76

66

44.4

61.2

45.7
2
MERENGON
2

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67

60

37.2

53.8

40.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, January 4, 2017

NBA (503) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS (504) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Take: over

Reason: Your free play for Thursday, January 4, 2017 is in the NBA contest between the OKC Thunder and the LA Clippers. The Clippers have really improved of late, winning four straight games and six of their last seven games. They have also covered four straight and are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11. While the Clippers average 104.8 ppg this season, they are averaging 114.8 ppg their last five and allowing just 104.8 ppg. OKC is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 away games and 6-14 their last 20 overall. The Clippers have gone over in Five of their last six games and are 4-0 O/U in their last four vs the Northwest division. Five of the last seven meetings between these clubs have gone OVER. That's what I look for again here on Friday. Play the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Thurs Arizona St -9 CBB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-B | Jan 04, 2018
Santa Clara vs. Loyola Marymount
Santa Clara+5

I'm recommending a play on Santa Clara on Thursday night. Loyola Marymount runs up and down the floor and attempts to push the tempo. Unfortunately, their desired style doesn't work too well when you're terrible from the deep perimeter and play very little defense. The Lions make just 31 percent of their treys, (304th in the nation). Defensively, LMU allows over 79 ppg, which is more than they score themselves, and they have allowed teams to nail 47.3 percent of their FGA, which ranks 311th in college basketball. The Broncos aren't too hot on the defensive end either, but with four players averaging between 18 ppg and 10.6 ppg, they own the ability to keep this one close against a bad defensive favorite. KJ Feagin and Matt Hauser have combined for 105 assists this season and both get everyone involved on the offensive end. Meanwhile, LMU has James Batemon, but not much else when it comes to dishing to the open man. LMU is once again an overvalued home favorite against a team that struggles on the road. The Lions are 5-13-1 ATS the last 19 times at home against teams playing less than .400 road basketball. In fact, they've covered just 18 of their last 60 home games against teams with a losing road record in general. We're recommending a play on Santa Clara plus the points on Thursday. NOTE: Be sure to grab both of our premium plays today, including our CBB Conf GOM, and our West Coast Wipeout. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (10:30 EST).

The Thunder come in off a relatively simple 133-96 destruction of the Lakers just last night and suffice it to say, I believe the team carries that momentum over here against the Clippers.

The Thunder’s big three of Carmelo Anthony, Paul George and Russell Westbrook combined for almost 70 points in just 28 minutes last night, meaning that the core for OKC is going to be well rested for tonight’s game as well.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Thunder have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met for the first time back on November 10th, it was OKC that scored the relatively simple 120-111 victory.

OKC averages 103.5 PPG and concedes just 100.5. Westbrook averages 24.8 points, 9.6 boards and ten assists per game.

The Clippers average 105.7 points and concede 105.7 as well. Blake Griffin leads the Clippers with 23.5 points, 7.7 boards and 5.3 assists per game.

I’ll point out though that OKC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is just 8-9 ATS as an underdog this season.

With a well rested trio of superstars ready to play tonight, all signs point to another rout for the surging Thunder in my opinion. Consider a second look at Oklahoma City in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
NHL | Jan 04, 2018
Kings vs. Flames
Kings+105

The Los Angeles Kings are coming off triumphs at Vancouver and Edmonton, and I think they'll come out of their three-game trek through Western Canada with a perfect record after visiting the Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome Thursday night.

Calgary snapped a three-game skid with a 4-3 OT win against Chicago on New Year's Eve, but it's worth noting that this is a team that's just 2-6 in its last eight when facing a team with a winning record. The Flames have struggled to assert themselves in front of the home fans going just 10-11-0 at home. The Kings meanwhile own a Western Conference-best 13-6-2 road record and they've won 11 of their last 13 when visiting a team with a losing home record.

My free pick is on LA Kings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, January 4, 2018
Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Matchup Edge
FLA Edge in: BOS
Offense
Defense
Power Play
Penalty Kill
Face Offs
Discipline
Goaltending

Preview: Panthers at Bruins


The Boston Bruins are firing on all cylinders with an almost-whole lineup and attempt to extend their point streak to 10 games when they host the Florida Panthers for an Atlantic Division matchup Thursday night. The Bruins knocked off the New York Islanders 5-1 on Tuesday to improve to 7-0-2 in their last nine games, and go after a sixth straight victory over the Panthers.

Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask, named the NHL’s first star of the month for December, has earned at least a point in his last 12 decisions (11-0-1) and the Bruins are getting offensive contributions from throughout the lineup. “We knew it was coming this year,” Boston left wing Brad Marchand told reporters. “We had a lot of injuries (early in the season). We knew we just needed some time to come together a bit. You see the way some young guys are stepping up, it just seems like everyone is connecting. Everyone has that chemistry.” Florida had won five straight games before opening a five-game road trip with a 5-1 loss at Minnesota on Tuesday after being outshot 32-11 in the first two periods. “Hopefully, we learn from this game that we can’t take a night off, we can’t take our foot off the pedal,” Panthers coach Bob Boughner told reporters. “So, if we take anything out of the game, maybe it’s a good lesson.”

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Sportsnet 360, Sportsnet East, Sportsnet Pacific, TVA, FS Florida, NESN (Boston)

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (17-17-5): Jonathan Huberdeau scored Tuesday and has hit the back of the net five times in his last five contests while tying fellow forward Vincent Trocheck (99 career assists) with a team-best 37 points. Center Aleksander Barkov (34 points) had an assist against Minnesota, but has gone seven games without a goal and right wing Evgenii Dadonov is mired in a five-game point drought. Goaltender James Reimer, who has made 12 straight starts, left the game with a minor injury Tuesday but is expected to be available Thursday.

ABOUT THE BRUINS (22-10-6): Rask, who has allowed four goals in his last five outings, started the season 3-8-2 and was benched for four straight games in favor of a red-hot Anton Khudobin in November before getting his game together. “We always knew Tuukka was our guy,” Boston goalie Bruce Cassidy told reporters. “. … Tuukka has clearly benefitted from being pushed because he’s dead-on (right now).” David Pastrnak tops the team with 35 points - one ahead of Marchand - and veteran center Patrice Bergeron (697 career points) has turned it up with four goals in the last five games.

OVERTIME

1. Boston’s rookie F Danton Heinen boasts three multi-point games in his last four and is third on the team with 28 points (10 goals, 18 assists).

2. Florida RW Radim Vrbata, who has only four goals in 30 games, missed the last three contests because of illness and is day-to-day.

3. Bruins F Noel Acciari has scored in three consecutive games to give him five on the season and seven in 72 career contests.

PREDICTION: Bruins 4, Panthers 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Florida at Boston

W/L Trends
Florida

Panthers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Atlantic.
Panthers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Panthers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Panthers are 5-2 in their last 7 Thursday games.
Panthers are 17-35 in their last 52 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Panthers are 60-130-3 in their last 193 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Panthers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Panthers are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Boston

Bruins are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic.
Bruins are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Bruins are 4-0 in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bruins are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
Bruins are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Bruins are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
Bruins are 7-2 in their last 9 Thursday games.
Bruins are 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Bruins are 16-5 in their last 21 overall.
Bruins are 21-7 in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.

OU Trends
Florida

Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 7-0 in Panthers last 7 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 vs. Atlantic.
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 following a loss of 3 or more goals.
Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-1 in Panthers last 9 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 12-3 in Panthers last 15 road games.
Under is 10-3 in Panthers last 13 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Panthers last 10 overall.

Boston

Over is 3-0-1 in Bruins last 4 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Bruins last 8 vs. Atlantic.
Over is 6-1 in Bruins last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-1 in Bruins last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 3-1-1 in Bruins last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-5-1 in Bruins last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.

Head to Head

Under is 10-4-3 in the last 17 meetings in Boston.
Under is 19-8-6 in the last 33 meetings.
Panthers are 19-39-3 in the last 61 meetings.
Road team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Panthers are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.