Service Plays Friday 1/19/18

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Goodfella

3* Triple Dime Total of the Month:
Brooklyn O206

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DR BOB

2* Buffalo-3
**Buffalo (-3) over WESTERN MICHIGAN

Rotation #819 – 4 pm Pacific

Buffalo is 5-0 straight up and 4-0-1 ATS in MAC play and the Bulls have been an underrated team since Missouri transfer Wes Clark became eligible to play, which is understandable given Clark’s 15.4 points, 6.0 assists and 1.6 steals per game on 48% shooting, which is very good for a guard. My ratings favor Buffalo by 6 points and I’ll take Buffalo in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (Opinion up to -4).



**New York (+5 ½) over UTAH

Rotation #811 – 7:35 pm Pacific

Utah will get C Rudy Gobert back, which is why this line is higher than it should be, but Gobert coming back does not make up for the Jazz not having Thabo Sefolosha, who is out for the season, and having Joe Johnson back in the rotation. Sefolosha’s +47 plus-minus is best among Utah’s key players and Utah has been outscored by an average of 11.0 points per 48 minutes when the aging and defensively inept Joe Johnson is on the court this season (-104 points in 453.9 minutes). Utah is just 5-11 since Johnson returned from injury, including only 2-4 at home. Gobert’s return could make things even worse given his -42 plus-minus this season and how well Ekpe Udoh has been playing. Udoh not only has a better plus-minus (+55) than Gobert but the overall value of his statistics are better. Taking minutes away from Udoh is not likely to make Utah any better so the line being higher because Gobert is coming back has given us line value in going against the Jazz tonight, who certainly aren’t as good with Johnson playing and without Sefolosha. My player-specific ratings favor Utah by just 2 points in this game even with an additional point added to the home court advantage for the Jazz’ altitude advantage. I’ll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 1-Star down to +4.



***Indiana (-1 ½) over L.A. LAKERS

Rotation #813 – 7:35 pm Pacific

I lost with the Pacers last night but Indiana is still an underrated team that is now 8-4 ATS without the overrated Myles Turner and his absence continues to supply some line value on the side of the Pacers. The Lakers, meanwhile, are a bad team without Lonzo Ball. Ball is looked at negatively because of his father but the fact is that Ball is what makes the Lakers go. That not only shows up in his team best -0.8 plus-minus per 48 minutes number but also in the games he has missed this season. The Lakers are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS in the games that Ball has missed with an average losing margin of 17.0 points per game. Los Angeles is a decent 16-20 straight up and 20-16 ATS when Ball plays. Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both out tonight and Caldwell-Pope is also a positive impact player. My ratings, based on current personnel favor the Pacers by 7 points and the Pacers are relatively better against worse teams. In fact, Indiana is 16-1 straight up this season against teams that I rate as below average – based on the personnel of each opponent for that game. As an example, that would include two wins over Chicago before Mirotic joined the team but not the loss against the Bulls with Mirotic since the Bulls are not a below average team with Mirotic. The Lakers are clearly a below average team without Ball and Cadwell-Pope and I’m not worried about the lack of rest given that the Pacers just won for me in a Best Bet at Utah on the 15th after playing the previous night. I’ll take Indiana in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -3.

[BONTRAGER]

Roz Juarbe NBA Game Of The Month

Miami Heat

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Jack Brayman

Top-Rated
100 Dime
College Basketball
Winner # 18 of 28
BUFFALO BULLS

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Indian Cowboy
3-Unit Play. #807. Take Sacramento Kings +6 over Memphis Grizzlies (Friday @ 8:05pm est)

[pirrana]

ANY FAT JACK?? tia

[KTWSports]

Worlds Worst Picker

W Michigan +3.5
Wisconsin -5

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Ralph Michaels - WagerTalk NBA 5% play (top rated)

jazz/Knicks under 203