Sunday 2-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, February 4


Georgia Tech @ Boston College

Game 813-814
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Tech
60.742
Boston College
66.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston College
by 5 1/2
143
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston College
by 3 1/2
135 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston College
(-3 1/2); Over

Illinois @ Ohio State

Game 815-816
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois
59.335
Ohio State
74.784
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 15 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 12
143
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-12); Over

Seton Hall @ Villanova

Game 817-818
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seton Hall
66.347
Villanova
76.875
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 10 1/2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 13
157
Dunkel Pick:
Seton Hall
(+13); Under

IUPUI @ Oakland

Game 819-820
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
IUPUI
43.318
Oakland
55.228
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 12
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 15
151 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
IUPUI
(+15); Under

Wisconsin @ Maryland

Game 821-822
February 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
62.875
Maryland
68.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Maryland
by 5 1/2
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Maryland
by 8 1/2
132 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(+8 1/2); Over

Tulsa @ South Florida

Game 823-824
February 4, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
50.214
South Florida
46.785
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulsa
by 3 1/2
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulsa
by 8
135
Dunkel Pick:
South Florida
(+8); Over

Illinois-Chicago @ Detroit

Game 825-826
February 4, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois-Chicago
50.314
Detroit
42.445
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Illinois-Chicago
by 8
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Illinois-Chicago
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois-Chicago
N/A

Temple @ Tulane

Game 827-828
February 4, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
62.504
Tulane
58.095
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 4 1/2
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 2 1/2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Temple
(-2 1/2); Under

Arizona State @ Washington St

Game 829-830
February 4, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
63.212
Washington St
52.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona State
by 11
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona State
by 8
159
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(-8); Under

Iona @ Marist

Game 831-832
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Iona
56.775
Marist
44.318
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iona
by 12 1/2
146
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iona
by 8 1/2
154 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iona
(-8 1/2); Under

Canisius @ St Peter's

Game 833-834
February 4, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Canisius
54.672
St Peter's
53.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Canisius
by 1 1/2
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St Peter's
by 1
129
Dunkel Pick:
Canisius
(+1); Over

Niagara @ Monmouth

Game 835-836
February 4, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Niagara
51.205
Monmouth
50.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Niagara
by 1
167
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Monmouth
by 3 1/2
161 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Niagara
(+3 1/2); Over

Rider @ Quinnipiac

Game 837-838
February 4, 2018 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rider
52.409
Quinnipiac
49.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Rider
by 3
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Rider
by 5 1/2
157 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Quinnipiac
(+5 1/2); Under

Colgate @ Navy

Game 839-840
February 4, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colgate
49.563
Navy
48.617
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colgate
by 1
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Navy
by 2 1/2
139 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colgate
(+2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VEGAS (34-13-0-4, 72 pts.) at WASHINGTON (30-16-0-5, 65 pts.) - 2/4/2018, 12:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 154-86 ATS (+243.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 39-18 ATS (+10.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
WASHINGTON is 26-8 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 34-17 ATS (+52.3 Units) in all games this season.
VEGAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) on Sunday games this season.
VEGAS is 18-8 ATS (+26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 189-219 ATS (-73.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 41-50 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 1-0-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE (27-16-0-8, 62 pts.) at CAROLINA (24-20-0-8, 56 pts.) - 2/4/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 2-11 ATS (-10.6 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 413-328 ATS (-116.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 204-165 ATS (-73.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1996.
CAROLINA is 14-19 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 7-14 ATS (-11.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE is 3-2 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
SAN JOSE is 3-2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA (17-24-0-9, 43 pts.) at MONTREAL (21-25-0-6, 48 pts.) - 2/4/2018, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 17-33 ATS (+54.5 Units) in all games this season.
OTTAWA is 40-38 ATS (+85.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 13-7 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 21-31 ATS (+71.1 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 10-21 ATS (-15.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 7-5 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-5-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, February 4

Washington got blanked 3-0 in Las Vegas in teams’ only meeting, Dec 23; Golden Knights won four of last six games overall, three of last four on road. Five of their last seven games went over the total. Washington lost four of its last six games overall, three of last four at home. Five of their last seven games went over the total.

Home side won last five San Jose-Carolina games; Sharks lost four of their last five visits to Raleigh. Five of last six series games went over the total. San Jose lost four of last five games overall; they’re 4-3 in last seven road games. Four of their last six games went over. Carolina won three of last four games overall, but lost four of last six home games. Six of their last eight games stayed under.

Montreal won five of its last six games with Ottawa; three of last four series games went under the total. Senators lost four of last five visits to Montreal. Ottawa lost six of last eight games overall, three of last four on road. Five of last six Ottawa games stayed under total. Canadiens lost seven of their last ten games overall; they’re 3-4 in last seven home games. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, February 4

Trend Report

VEGAS @ WASHINGTON
Vegas is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home

SAN JOSE @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing Carolina
San Jose is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games

OTTAWA @ MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games at home
Montreal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, February 4


Vegas @ Washington

Game 51-52
February 4, 2018 @ 12:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vegas
12.564
Washington
10.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-125
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(+105); Under

San Jose @ Carolina

Game 53-54
February 4, 2018 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
12.328
Carolina
11.229
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
(+110); Under

Ottawa @ Montreal

Game 55-56
February 4, 2018 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
10.768
Montreal
11.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(-165); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New England Patriots open as 5.5-point Super Bowl LII favorites over Philadelphia Eagles
Patrick Everson

For a while on Sunday, it looked like the Super Bowl might see fresh blood from both conferences. But at least there’s still one relative newcomer for the Feb. 4 showdown in Minneapolis. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line and early action, with insights from Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook BetDSI.com.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-5.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England was on the ropes throughout much of Sunday’s AFC championship game, but Tom Brady and Co. got off the mat just in time for a return trip to the big game. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns – the last 14 points of the game – to squeeze out a 24-20 victory as a 7.5-point home favorite. Brady hit Danny Amendola for both scores, the second with just 2:48 remaining to account for the final margin.

However, that comeback came at a cost for No. 1 seed New England, with stud tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined during the game and now under concussion protocol.

Top-seeded Philadelphia reached the Super Bowl in very different fashion, most notably without star QB Carson Wentz, who tore an ACL in a Week 14 road win over the Los Angeles Rams. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) beat Atlanta as a home underdog in the divisional round, then had the same role for Sunday’s NFC final, in which they boatraced Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point pup.

“We’re gonna go Patriots -5.5,” Rood said of MGM’s opening number. “Basically, you like to have it on the hook, because you don’t want your biggest decision of the football year to be a push. Also, based off the performance of the Eagles and the uncertainty of Gronk, I think just shy of 6 is the place to be.”

BetDSI opened a tick higher at Patriots -6 and dropped to -5 in short order Sunday night before ticking back up to -5.5. (For reviews of online sportsbooks visit OddsShark.com)

“This feels a lot like those Patriots-Giants Super Bowls, where we saw the upset in each,” Cooley said. “I think we'll see a lot of underdog bettors during the next two weeks. We didn't want to undersell what the Patriots bring to the table, but we might have opened this number a bit high. Early action steamed in on Philadelphia, which moved the spread down to -5.

“We did attract some chalk money at that point and bumped the number to -5.5.”

Cooley said BetDSI also saw some early sharp money on the over, taking the total from 47.5 to 48.5, before it nosed back to 48. At MGM books, including Rood’s home base at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip, the total opened at 47.5 and was unchanged late Sunday night.

On the moneyline, MGM opened the Patriots -220 and moved to -225, with the buyback on the Eagles going from +180 to +185.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 4

Philadelphia @ New England

Game 101-102
February 4, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.026
New England
146.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-5 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Super Bowl

Sunday, February 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (15 - 3) vs. NEW ENGLAND (15 - 3) - 2/4/2018, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Super Bowl

Here are my random thoughts on Sunday’s Super Bowl:

— Here are the scores of the six Super Bowls with Brady/Belichick in them:
SB36— NE 20, Rams 17
SB38— NE 27, Carolina 24
SB39— NE 24, Philadelphia 21
SB42— Giants 17, NE 14
SB46— Giants 21, NE 17
SB49— NE 28, Seattle 24
SB51- NE 34, Atlanta 28 OT— Notice a pattern? All decided by 6 or less points.

— Doug Pedersen is in his 2nd year as a head coach; Belichick has won five Super Bowls.
— NFC was 41-23 against the AFC this year; Patriots were 3-1 against the NFC.
— Eagles won their last game against the Patriots, 35-28 in Foxboro in 2015.
— Philly pounded the Vikings last week, now visits Minnesota; it could be awkward.

— Underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in last 16 Super Bowls
— Belichick is 5-2 in Super Bowls, all of which were decided by six or less points.
— Eagles are 0-2 in Super Bowls, with last one a loss to New England 13 years ago.
— New England covered 10 of its last 12 games overall.

— Domed stadium; weather won’t be an issue.
— Weird stat: In Belichick’s seven Super Bowls, Patriots are scoreless in first quarter.
— Unsure if it matters, but LeGarrette Blount and Chris Long played for New England LY.
— If anything happens to Foles, Eagles’ backup QB Sudfeld is a total unknown; he was 19-23 passing for 134 yards in very limited action. He started for three years at Indiana.

— Both New England coordinators are off to head coaching jobs after this game.
— Eagles are 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year; this is 4th game in row they’re the underdog, because of Wentz being hurt.
— Since 2010, NFL head coaches are 3-26 in their first game against Belichick.

Bottom line for me is that a lot of people are jumping on the Eagles’ bandwagon, but this is a backup QB against the best QB/coach combo of all-time. I’ll say New England, 27-16.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Super Bowl

Trend Report

Sunday, February 4

PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ENGLAND
Philadelphia is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Gronkowski's concussion injury impacting early Super Bowl wagering
Patrick Everson

We’re just a few days into Super Bowl betting, but some trends are already starting to unfold. Everson checks in on the action and line movement for the big game on Feb. 4, with insights from Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, and with the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5

New England is certainly in a familiar spot, once again playing in the final game of the year, but it took a big comeback to get there. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) needed most of Sunday’s AFC championship game to climb out of a 14-3 hole against Jacksonville, ultimately escaping with a 24-20 home victory as a 7.5-point home chalk.

The Pats also lost tight end Rob Gronkowski during the game, and he’s currently in concussion protocol.

Philadelphia (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) had struggled a lot in the scoring department since Nick Foles stepped in for the injured Carson Wentz at quarterback. But those struggles went away in Sunday’s NFC title tilt, with the Eagles running away from Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog.

With Gronkowski’s status uncertain and Philly coming off an impressive performance, betting is lopsided at Miller’s shop on Fremont Street.

“Right away, in the first minute we had the game up, I took a $10,000 moneyline bet on the Eagles,” Miller said, noting the moneyline opened Patriots -250/Eagles +200. “So we dropped the moneyline to -240/+190 and the pointspread from 6 to 5.5. We didn’t really get any money at +6, but we got a lot at +5.5 the last few days. Then we went to 5, and they’re still taking +5.”

Miller said the moneyline is now at New England -200/Philadelphia +170, and bettors continue to hit the Eagles.

“All the sentimental bets are on the Eagles, on the pointspread and moneyline. People are just kind of burned out on the Patriots,” Miller said. “The sharp money is lurking, waiting to see how low this drops. It’ll go back up next week, when the bulk of the money starts to show up.”

And of course, providing Gronk is cleared, that will take the line north as well.

Meanwhile, at GTBets.eu, the Patriots opened -5.5 and dipped to 5. (For reviews of online sportsbooks visit OddsShark.com)

“So far, 60 percent of side bets are on New England, which is less than expected and also why the line has dropped to 5,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “The total has barely budged, going from 47.5 to 48, and 70 percent of the action is on the over at this point. With the reasonable amount of action on the Eagles, I would expect the line to drop to 4.5, and the total to increase possibly another point to 49.”

The Golden Nugget was also at 48 on the total and a little heavy to the under, but that’s of little concern to Miller at this point.

“They’ll eventually pound the over,” he said. “So I’m not worried about that at all.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

One week out from Super Bowl LII, it's all Eagles action so far
Patrick Everson

Super Bowl LII has been bet into for almost a week now, and yet the line still hasn’t stabilized, continuing to trend downward at several shops. Patrick Everson checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, and Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6.5; Move: -6: Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

New England has the extensive Super Bowl resume, complete with an overflowing trophy case. But the Patriots’ performance in the AFC title game and the uncertain status of Rob Gronkowski aren’t an attractive combination to bettors. New England (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) rallied to beat Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Meanwhile, bettors can’t seem to help themselves to enough of Philadelphia after its blowout victory in the NFC final. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) hammered Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog, making believers of customers at Nevada and offshore books.

“It’s been all Eagles up to this point,” Avello said of action at the Wynn, which on Friday night dropped the Patriots from -5 to -4.5. “They even took 4.5 last night for a good amount. Normally, I’d be at 4, if the game was this Sunday. But since we’ve got a whole week to go, I’m gonna wait and see if we get some takers on the Patriots.”

Like many other shops, the Wynn is seeing plenty of Philly action on the moneyline, which opened New England -230/Philadelphia +195. Those numbers have dipped to -180/+160. Avello says there’s an X-factor to turning around the current betting trends – Gronkowski’s status.

“If Gronkowski gets announced that he’s playing, which I think is gonna happen, that’ll maybe stabilize the line or even push it up a little bit,” he said.

TheGreek.com opened New England -5.5, dipped to -5 on Wednesday, then hit -4.5 (-115) on Saturday.

“We’ve accumulated ‘dog money along the way,” Kaminsky said, while noting action has slowed a bit in the calm before the storm. “The sharps are probably done for now. We’re not seeing much action and probably won’t until next weekend.”

Wynn Las Vegas opened the total at 47, and after a quick burst to 48, that number hasn’t moved since late last Sunday.

“The total is kind of a dead issue. It won’t be as we get closer to the game, but as of now, it’s drawing the least interest of all the options, including the props,” Avello said.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots aren't much for blowouts when it comes to the Big Game
Joe Fortenbaugh

By our current count, at least three wagers of $500,000 or more have already been placed in Las Vegas for next Sunday’s Super Bowl LII showdown between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

Those wagers will be discussed in more detail below, but for now, all you need to know is that each bet was placed on Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles, which is one of the primary reasons as to why the opening pointspread of Patriots -5.5 has already been adjusted to as low as Patriots -4.

But perhaps more important than why the pointspread is moving is the why behind the decision to support the Eagles. Granted, the rationale supporting such a wager is multi-faceted, but at least one of those factors pertains to the following information:

Tom Brady + Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl =

[2002] New England (+14/53) vs. St. Louis: Patriots 20, Rams 17
[2003] New England (-7/38) vs. Carolina: Patriots 32, Panthers 29
[2004] New England (-7/47) vs. Philadelphia: Patriots 24, Eagles 21
[2008] New England (-12.5/54.5) vs. New York: Giants 17, Patriots 14
[2012] New England (-3/53) vs. New York: Giants 21, Patriots 17
[2015] New England (-1/47) vs. Seattle: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
[2017] New England (-3/57) vs. Atlanta: Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)

Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota will mark the eighth time in which a Super Bowl featured Bill Belichick as the head coach of the Patriots and Tom Brady as the quarterback of the Patriots. But here’s where things get interesting: in those previous seven Super Bowl appearances, the average margin of victory was just 3.7 points, with only one game being decided by more than four points.

That one game in question was last year’s 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Four games decided by three points, two matchups determined by four points and one overtime thriller that landed on six points.

Brady + Belichick may be the NFL’s ultimate dynasty, but the Hall of Fame tandem doesn’t annihilate the opposition when the Vince Lombardi Trophy is on the line. Further, the Brady + Belichick duo is a lifetime 5-2 straight up and 3-4 against the spread in the Super Bowl, with the Under cashing in four of those seven showdowns.

While it’s certainly not the primary reason as to why we’ve seen so much Eagles money show up in Vegas through the first week of Super Bowl wagering, Brady and Belichick’s Super Bowl history has no doubt played at least a small role in the movement from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.

Now comes the fun part: will big-time Patriots money begin to show in Vegas between now and kickoff, or will the Philly cash continue to pour in during this season’s final week of professional football wagering?

With 20 weeks in the books

Home teams ATS: 133-125-8
Favorites ATS: 133-122-8
Home underdogs ATS: 48-50-4
Over/Under: 124-142

Trend of the Week

In the National Football League’s previous 51 Super Bowls, the team that won the game just so happened to also cover the pointspread 43 times.

Please allow me to repeat myself: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS.

So, who do you guys have winning on Sunday?

Super Bowl action report

Most outlets, both in Vegas and offshore, opened with the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 points. After one week of wagering, we now see New England as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 48.

As of Sunday morning, approximately 58 percent of the tickets written were in support of Philadelphia, while 62 percent of the tickets written on the total were backing the Over.

In regards to the move from New England -5.5 to New England -4, here’s what we know:

1. Early this past week, MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told our friend Gill Alexander that his property took a “multi-million-dollar bet” on the Philadelphia Eagles. Rood declined to name the bettor or share whether it was a moneyline bet on the Eagles or a wager on the Eagles plus the points, but Rood did move his line from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.5 immediately after booking said wager.

2. South Point director of race and sports Chris Andrews told us on Episode 70 of The Sharp 600 that he booked a $500,000 moneyline wager on the Philadelphia Eagles this past week.

3. Matthew Holt, the COO at CG Analytics and vice president of business development for CG Technology, tweeted Friday, “We took a 700K bet on Eagles moneyline today and now have well into seven-figure liability on Eagles moneyline as of now.”

At the moment, it appears as if we’re all waiting to see whether or not a significant amount of New England money shows up at the books.

Muffed Punt Picks: Super Bowl, Part I

Season: 24-37-2
Last week: 0-2

While my official Super Bowl side, total and prop selections will be released in next week’s edition of “The Muffed Punt,” here is an early nugget I have been studying:

First quarter UNDER: In seven Super Bowl appearances together, the Tom Brady + Bill Belichick connection has combined to score a grand total of ZERO points during the first quarter.

Yup, Brady and Belichick have been held scoreless during the first quarter in every single Super Bowl they have appeared in together. Further, in those aforementioned seven Super Bowls, a grand total of just 15 points has been scored during the first quarter.

Quote of the Week

“That’s the biggest gap in sports, the difference between the winner and the loser of the Super Bowl.” -- John Madden

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Super Bowl LII's biggest betting mismatches: Eagles vs. Patriots
Monty Andrews

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-4.5, 48)

It's the biggest game of the NFL season, as the New England Patriots seek their second straight title - and sixth all-time - against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is looking for its first Super Bowl championship. The Patriots come into this year's title contest at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as modest favorites, thanks to a Tom Brady-led offense that led the league in total offense. The Eagles will look to quash New England's quest at a repeat with a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL.

Eagles' solid rush attack vs. Patriots' run D problems

There weren't many things the Eagles didn't do well this season, thriving on a dynamic offense led by quarterback Carson Wentz and making opposing teams suffer thanks to a relentless defense. And that's not all; the Eagles were one of the top rushing teams in the league, especially after acquiring Jay Ajayi in a mid-season trade with the Miami Dolphins. And in what is expected to be a highly competitive game, Philadelphia should be able to exploit a New England rush attack that has struggled to keep teams at bay.

The Eagles' running game didn't generate much buzz throughout the season, mostly because Wentz was so spectacular prior to his season-ending knee injury. But Philadelphia might not be where it is without the success of its rush attack, which produced the third-most yards during the regular season (2,115). And while the Eagles struggled with fumbles - committing 11 during the regular season and another three in the playoffs - this is a run game that can move the football against just about any team in the league.

That doesn't bode well at all for a Patriots defense that held opponents to the fourth-lowest run rate in the league (38.0 percent), but allowed opposing rushers to gain a whopping 4.6 yards per carry; only the Los Angeles Chargers were more generous (4.9 YPC). And while New England limited Jacksonville to 101 yards on 32 carries in the AFC Championship, things might be different on a neutral field against an Eagles team whose 4.3 YPC average during the season ranked seventh in the NFL.

Eagles' interception immunity vs. Patriots' secondary struggles

The loss of Wentz - to an injury revealed last week to be even more severe than first thought - was supposed to be the end of the Eagles' title chances. But Nick Foles has emerged as more than capable of spearheading the Philadelphia offense. While he lacks the explosiveness of his young predecessor, Foles has done a magnificent job taking care of the football - and in that regard, the Eagles as a whole have a significant advantage over a Patriots team that didn't produce many turnovers on passing downs.

While Philadelphia boasted one of the lowest passing rates in football during the regular season (55.2 percent), it still led the NFL in passing touchdowns (38) and finished just outside the top 10 in yards per game through the air (240.1). Wentz, Foles and Nate Sudfeld also combined to throw just nine interceptions, sixth-fewest in the league. Foles was at his tactical best last time out, throwing three touchdowns with zero interceptions in last week's NFC Championship rout of the Minnesota Vikings.

Teams threw the ball more than 62 percent of the time against the Patriots, but the New England secondary didn't turn many of those passes into interceptions. The Patriots finished the regular season with 12 INTs - tied with Tennessee for 18th overall - and are the only one of the final four playoff teams without an interception in the postseason; Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Minnesota all have at least two. Look for Philadelphia to use a measured passing game to keep the football out of the hands of the Pats' defense.

Eagles' discipline issues vs. Patriots' paucity of penalties

You might see the first two items on the list and wonder why the Eagles aren't favored. Well, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense has a lot to do with that - and there are other factors, as well. Oddsmakers aren't convinced that Foles can outduel his New England counterpart, while the Patriots' extensive playoff experience also comes into play. And if Philadelphia can't show more discipline than it did during the regular season, New England will own the kind of penalty advantage that could decide this one.

While it didn't cost them anything in the overall standings, the Eagles were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL in 2017, picking up the fifth-most accepted flags (124) while accruing the eighth-most accepted penalty yards (1,041). Not surprisingly, that resulted in the Eagles finishing fourth from the bottom in total penalty flag differential (minus-17), ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos - three teams that missed the postseason completely.

As you might have expected, the Patriots were once again one of the most disciplined teams in the NFL this past season. New England finished its 16-game campaign with exactly 100 accepted flags - eighth-fewest in the league - and its 882 accepted penalty yards also ranked eighth. And the Patriots were even better when it came to drawing flags, finishing with the league's greatest penalty yard differential (plus-313) and the second-best flag differential (plus-27).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Is the early money on the right side when it comes to cashing in on Super Bowl betting?
Ashton Grewal

The Super Bowl is just days away and if you haven’t been paying attention to the reports as to where the money is being bet on the game here’s a quick update: Eagles early and often.

The advanced line before the AFC and NFC championship games forecasted the New England Patriots would be 7-point favorites if they were pitted against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Following the Eagles’ destruction of the Minnesota Vikings, the books elected to play it safe and opened with a shorter spread for the Big Game.

But opening with the Pats giving 5.5 wasn’t good enough. The flood of Eagles support has brought the spread down to as low four and some oddsmakers are predicting it could drop to 3.5 soon if the money backing the Patriots doesn’t show up soon.

The situation has a bit of a déjà vu to it because 10 years ago, Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks took one of their biggest losses in Super Bowl history when the New York Giants won outright as double-digit underdogs against 18-0 New England Patriots.

“Overall the Super Bowl was a disaster,” Jay Kornegay, then Executive Director Race & Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton (now Westgate), told us at the time.

“We couldn’t stop the Giant moneyline bets from coming in and it was the worst result ever for us. Most books put themselves into a comfortable position by just needing the Patriots to win the game. Since that didn’t happen and the game when Under, worst case scenario. Most supporters for the Giants also bet the Under and, or, parlayed the two.”

These two scenarios are both extreme cases but it got us wondering: is the early - often sharp - money normally on the right side of the outcome?

Here is a look back at the last 10 years of Super Bowl betting, where the early money went and whether it was on the right side or not of the outcome.

Super Bowl XLII

Patriots vs. Giants

Opening spread: Pats -13
Closing spread: Pats -11.5

It was mentioned above already but the sharps and the public both backed the right side with the Giants winning outright 17-14. They were paying +400 on the moneyline as well.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIII

Steelers vs. Cardinals

Opening spread: Steelers -6.5
Closing spread: Steelers -6.5

This matchup was booked pretty evenly but the early money did come in on the underdog and the spread dropped to 5.5 before the Steelers money came in the second week.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIV

Colts vs. Saints

Opening spread: Colts -3.5
Closing spread: Colts -4.5

The Colts got bet up to as high as 6-point chalk before the game closed with the 4.5-point spread. The early money was on the losing side here but the action was reported as light. While digging through the archives it seems like the sharps were backing the Saints late in the second week.

Early money: Loss

Super Bowl XLV

Packers vs. Steelers

Opening spread: Packers -2
Closing spread: Packers -3

The Packers were a wild card entry into the postseason but their impressive march through the NFC playoffs had most football fans thinking they were a better team than the Steelers. Bettors backed the Pack early and they proved to be right with Aaron Rodgers holding up the championship belt.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVI

Patriots vs. Giants

Opening spread: Pats -3.5
Closing spread: Pats -3

Here’s another similar spot here for the books. The early money came in on the underdog Giants who won the game outright over the Patriots again.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVII

49ers vs. Ravens

Opening spread: 49ers -4
Closing spread: 49ers -4.5

The numbers above might say the bettors were on the wrong side, but the line history at Pinnacle shows the first move was in favor of the underdog Ravens. Pinnacle dropped to 49ers -3.5 two days after opening with San Fran giving four points.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLVIII

Broncos vs. Seahawks

Opening spread: Pick
Closing spread: Seahawks -1.5

The early action wasn’t uniform across the industry because of the variations of opening lines. Some shops opened with the Broncos favored by two points others listed the game as a pick. Either way, the smart and early money was on the Seahawks, who crushed Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Early money: Win

Super Bowl XLIX

Patriots vs. Seahawks

Opening spread: Pats -1
Closing spread: Pats -1

The action was split for the full two-week buildup to the Big Game for Super Bowl XLIX. The spread as a near pick’em and that’s how the bettors saw the game.

Early money: Draw

Super Bowl L

Broncos vs. Panthers

Opening spread: Panthers -3.5
Closing spread: Panthers -4.5

The Panthers almost went undefeated on their way to their second Super Bowl appearance as a franchise, but they didn’t show up in the big game and bettors paid a price at the window.

Early money: Loss

Super Bowl LI

Patriots vs. Falcons

Opening spread: Pats -3
Closing spread: Pats -3

The early money came in on the Patriots but not enough to move the spread. The books received two-way action but the first at the window were betting chalk.

Early money: Win

Final score: Early money 7-2-1