March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Records for seeds since the tourney went to 64 or more teams.

#1-#16 (132-0, 100%)
#2-#15 (124-8, 93.9%)
#3-#14 (111-21, 84.1%)
#4-#13 (106-26, 80.3%)
#5-#12 (85-47, 64.4% )
#6-#11 (83-49, 62.9%)
#7-#10 (81-51, 61.4%)
#8-#9 (68-64, 51.5% )

[New York Knight]

Virginia has been picked as the National Champion in 27% of brackets filled out at ESPN so far.

You should be looking to fade the public if you're in a larger bracket pool.

[New York Knight]

Since 2009, teams favored by 6 points or more in the 1st round won 88% of games.


There’s currently 17 games with spreads of 6 or more.

[New York Knight]

10,000 NCAA Tournament Simulations Reveal Most Likely Champions


After 10,000 simulations, Virginia is the most likely champion. Tony Bennett’s team has a 44.1% chance to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1984 and wins the national championship 18.9% of the time.

The other contenders with legitimate chances of winning are Villanova (17.1%), Duke (11.6%), Cincinnati (8.5%), Purdue (6.2%), Michigan State (6.1%) and North Carolina (5.4%).

The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Virginia, No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke and No. 2 North Carolina. The Wildcats, Blue Devils and Tar Heels have all reached the final weekend at least once in the last three tournaments, with UNC trying for a third consecutive Final Four.

The tournament is projected to be chalky. The 13 most likely Final Four participants are seeded 1-4, with those seeded 1-2 wining it all 73.8% of the time.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be upsets. In the play-in games and first round, there are 10 games in which the higher-seeded team wins 60% of the time or less, making for potential upsets.


South Region

Virginia, led by Kyle Guy and Devon Hall (pictured above), is a No. 1 seed for the third time in five years. The Cavaliers earned the top overall seed by playing the best defense in the country (53.4 ppg allowed). However, UVA isn’t the only team in this region that brings it on that end of the court. Cincinnati, Tennessee and Texas also rank in the top 10 in the nation in defensive efficiency.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Virginia (44.1%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky (6.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Loyola Chicago (18.4% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Nevada over No. 10 Texas (50.0%)



West Region

Xavier is the weakest No. 1 seed in the bracket, ranking 14th overall according to KenPom. The Musketeers got a tough draw with North Carolina, Gonzaga and Michigan ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency. The West is wide open, with these four teams each having double-digit percentage chances to win the region.

•Most Likely Final Four team: North Carolina (25.3%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Ohio State (8.7%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): San Diego State (12.2% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 8 Missouri over No. 9 Florida State (50.0%)



East Region

The simulation likes Virginia, but the oddsmakers favor Villanova. The Wildcats are 7-2 favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. What do the Bookmakers like about Jay Wright’s team? Few teams in the tournament can match the potential NBA talent that Nova boasts in Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (44.9%)
•Final Four Sleeper: West Virginia (8.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Butler (16.8% to make Sweet 16)
•Closes First-Round Game: No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas (53.1%)



Midwest Region

The blue bloods of college basketball (Kansas, Duke and Michigan State) will battle it out in the Midwest. The Jayhawks (Devonte’ Graham), Blue Devils (Marvin Bagley) and Spartans (Miles Bridges) are led by Wooden Award candidates, meaning each team has enough talent to not only win the region, but to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

•Most Likely Final Four team: Duke (36.0%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Clemson (5.8%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): New Mexico State (13.3% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Rhode Island over No. 10 Oklahoma (50.0%)


Most likely Sweet 16 teams:

Nova 85%
Duke 83%
UVA 82%
UNC 73%
Purdue 72%

[New York Knight]

Butler is the second-best NCAA tourney bet in the database (since 1999).


SU: 21-12

ATS: 25-8 (75.8%)

O/U: 13-19-1

[New York Knight]

Here's how the No. 1 seeds have fared against the spread since 1999 in the NCAA tournament:


Kansas: 36-27-1

Villanova: 17-16

Virginia: 5-9-1

Xavier: 26-8-2

[New York Knight]

Only coaches in this year's field to cover less than 33% of their NCAA Tournament games:

31.6%: Rick Barnes
31.6%: Jamie Dixon

(Since 2005, min. 10 games)

[New York Knight]

Why Bettors Should Avoid Trendy NCAA Tournament Underdogs


With the NCAA Tournament field set, many folks likely have upsets pegged before even looking at the actual matchups. Perhaps they think they’re being original for their choices. The 12 over the 5-seed…some 10s over 7s. Your basic upsets, you know the drill.

However, when betting on spreads, you need to be very wary as far as trendy dogs are concerned. When you see a dog as cool as Scooby Doo, you may want to tread lightly…

More often than not, they’re going to disappoint more than socks on a Christmas morn.

By now, you should probably know that betting against the public is a wise choice. Especially in the NCAA Tournament, when square bettors instinctively flock to sportsbooks like the Salmon of Capistrano.

Generally speaking, the public gets down heavy on favorites. This is why you’ll often find contrarian value on the dog, but that is not always the case.

Dating back to 2005, the team getting the majority of the bets has been the favorite at close to a 3:1 ratio. Basically a quarter of the time, you’ll see a trendy dog available. Anddddd….they’ve been god awful.


Underdogs receiving the majority of bets have only covered 43.1% of the time. The first week is even worse, with trendy dogs in the First Four, round of 64, and round of 32 only covering 40.4% of the time.

One of the only instances in which they haven’t done horribly is as a double-digit dog. Trendy dogs getting 10 points or more have gone 16-15, meaning those getting 9.5 points or less have only covered at a 41.6% rate.

As of Monday morning there are 10 dogs getting at least 51% of bets and six getting at least two-thirds of spread bets. The four dogs getting between 51% and 57% (Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, and LIU Brooklyn) will probably be getting the minority of bets by the time the games start.


The other six trendy dogs have a very good chance of staying trendy, though.

•#10 Providence (84%, +3.5) vs. #7 Texas A&M
•#13 Charleston (81%, +10.5) vs. #4 Auburn
•#12 South Dakota State (74%, +8) vs. #5 Ohio State
•#13 Marshall (74%, +12) vs. #4 Wichita State
•#15 Georgia State (73%, +14) vs. #2 Cincinnati
•#12 New Mexico State (68%, +5) vs. #5 Clemson


Fade or follow? Maybe they’re worth a shot on your bracket, but be like the wading baboon and tread lightly if you’re thinking about betting them.

[New York Knight]

Monday Money Burner ...


William Hill has already taken 3 bets on #16-seed North Carolina Central to win the tournament at 2,500/1 odds.

[New York Knight]

Monday Fun Facts ...


-An estimated 24 million people participated in an NCAA tournament pool in 2017, filling out 60 million brackets, according to a recent survey conducted by The Mellman Group

-March Madness pools, when money is involved, are illegal in 37 of 50 states, according to a legal analysis commissioned by the American Gaming Assn.

-The American Gaming Assn estimates more than $10 billion will be wagered on the NCAA tournament this year, with only 3% taking place in a legal environment.

[New York Knight]

Why Is Contrarian Betting so Profitable During the NCAA Tournament?


The NCAA Tournament, like the Super Bowl, ropes in even the most casual of bettors. With bracket pools, early tip-offs and a slew of games to choose from, it’s a natural time for those who don’t normally bet to get back in the game.

Of course, an influx of recreational money gives contrarian bettors plenty of opportunity to find value. In general, many March Madness bettors only follow college basketball for the NCAA Tournament. As a result, they’re largely uneducated regarding current players and teams, and often overvalue favorites, higher-seeded squads, and trendy Cinderella teams.

Because oddsmakers understand the teams and situations that will attract public money, they react by shading lines to force these bettors to take worse numbers. For example, a blue-blood program like Duke is likely to be a popular wager among uneducated bettors simply because of the program’s history and mainstream name recognition. Power ratings may suggest that Duke should be a 10-point favorite in a specific matchup and oddsmakers will instead open the Blue Devils at -12, knowing that recreational players will bet on Duke, no matter the number. That’s two free points of value for a contrarian bettor looking to fade Duke at +12.

So which games should bettors target during the NCAA Tournament?

According to Bet Labs database, contrarian value begins to appear when a side is receiving 40% or fewer of total spread tickets.


Betting on teams that received the majority of public action (more than 50% of tickets wagered) has been a losing proposition since 2005, resulting in a loss of 63.90 units. (A unit is simply a bettor’s normal wager size. For example, a $100 bettor would have lost $6,390 (-63.90 x $100) betting those games.)

On the other hand, value increases the more lopsided a game gets, highlighted by an ATS win rate of 54.2% and profit of more than 24 units when the percentage of tickets wagered dips to 40% and below.

[New York Knight]

There are currently 13 double-digit spreads for the Thurs/Fri games of the NCAA tourney.

The most in Odds Shark database since 1996 is 16 (1996 & 2000) ... The fewest is 8 (2006 & 2012)

[New York Knight]

How underdogs perform in the first round


Last Year:

4-26 SU
15-14-1 ATS


In the 30-Second Shot Clock Era:

12-49 SU
30-30-1 ATS


Since 1996:

158-466 SU
312-303-9 ATS

[New York Knight]

Virginia has the best record against the spread (21-8-1) of any major-conference team in the field.

[New York Knight]

Most bets to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Michigan State
2. Kansas
3. Villanova
4. Duke
5. Kentucky


Most money wagered to win the tournament at Caesars Palace books:

1. Duke
2. Michigan State
3. Villanova
4. Kansas
5. Arizona