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Since 1985, there have been 14 double-digit seeds that were double-digit dogs in Sweet 16. None of the 14 won outright and the closest margin was seven points (7-7 ATS).
So a Syracuse win Friday night would be a first-of-its type upset.Comment
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The Action Network ...
Most likely teams to win in Sweet 16
Duke 82.8% win probability
Nova 70.0%
Zags 66.1%
Kentucky 63.4%Comment
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Sports Insights ...
Sweet 16 Betting
71% on Kentucky -5.5 vs KST
70% on Nova -5.5 vs WVU
63% on Kansas -4.5 vs Clem
61% on Nevada -1.5 vs LoyChi
59% on Zags -5.5 vs FSU
58% on TexasAM +2.5 vs Mich
58% on Purdue -1.5 vs TT
54% on Cuse +11.5 vs DukeComment
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Sweet 16 Unders since 2005 ...
56-46 (54.9%), +6.4 units, 6.2% ROI
When getting <50% bets ...
52-37 (58.4%), +11.54 units, 12.7% ROI
When getting <35% bets ...
33-18 (64.7%), +12.82 units, 24.7% ROIComment
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March Madness teams 30% or less with line freeze or inflated lines ... 51-35 ATS (59.3%) since 2005
K-State (28%) ... line freeze +5.5
WVU (27%) ... inflated +5 to +5.5Comment
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Betting records in the Sweet 16 ... Since 1996
Duke
SU: 7-8
ATS: 5-8-2
O/U: 5-10
Gonzaga
SU: 3-5
ATS: 2-4-2
O/U: 3-5
Kansas
SU: 10-4
ATS: 5-8-1
O/U: 3-9
Kentucky
SU: 12-2
ATS: 11-3
O/U: 3-9
Michigan
SU: 2-1
ATS: 1-1-1
O/U: 2-1
Villanova
SU: 3-2
ATS: 3-2
O/U: 1-4Comment
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Betting stat following the first two rounds (includes First Four games):
Over / Under in games with spread of 10+ pts
6-13Comment
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Sports Insights ...
Final 4 probabilities ...
Duke 55.1%
Nova 46.2%
Kentucky 40.5%
Zags 36.4%
Michigan 34.1%
Purdue 25.1%
Nevada 24.4%
Kansas 23.4%
K-State 17.6%
Loyola-Chicago 17.6%
Clemson 16.1%
Texas AM 15.8%
TexasTech 15.1%
FSU 13.7%
WVU 13.6%
Syracuse 5.3%Comment
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No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Open: -2.5 / Move: -2 / Move: -2.5 / Move: -2 / Move: -1.5
Loyola-Chicago is tied with Syracuse for the lowest seed still on Big Dance floor. The Ramblers (30-5 SU, 21-9-1 ATS) stunned Miami on a last-second 3-pointer in the opening round last Thursday, then got another waning-seconds bucket to top third-seeded Tennessee 63-62 as a 5-point underdog Saturday.
Nevada was the comeback king of opening weekend, twice rallying from double-digit deficits. The Wolf Pack (29-7 SU, 18-14-3 ATS) trailed Texas by 14 early in the second half, but pulled out an 87-83 overtime win in a pick ‘em game Friday. On Sunday, Nevada trailed No. 2 seed Cincinnati 65-43 with 11 minutes remaining, but closed with a 32-8 run for a miraculous 75-73 victory as an 8.5-point pup.
“This game has got the most money by far of the Thursday-Friday games. It’s not even close, like five times as much money, counting everything – pointspread, moneyline and parlays,” Bogdanovich said of action at William Hill books. “The sharps are on Loyola, they took the 2.5 and the 2. And all of our Nevada customers are on the Wolf Pack.”
Tipoff for this Thursday South Region game is at 7:07 p.m. ET.Comment
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No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines
Open: -3.5 / Move: -3 / Move: -2.5 / Move: -3
Michigan was a popular pre-tournament pick to make a deep run, but nearly found itself heading home Saturday. The Wolverines (30-7 SU, 23-12-1 ATS), winners of 11 in a row SU (9-2 ATS), got all they could handle from Houston before prevailing on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer, 64-63 as a 3.5-point favorite.
Texas A&M held off Providence in Friday’s opening round, then rumbled to a stunning West Region blowout on Sunday. The Aggies (22-12 SU, 15-16 ATS) pounded No. 2 seed North Carolina 86-65 catching 9 points to earn a spot against Michigan in this 7:37 p.m. ET Thursday start.
“We immediately got hit with sharp action on the ‘dog, which pushed our number down to Michigan -3,” Peter Childs said (risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag)
“At -3, we were seeing some decent two-way action, but Tuesday morning, we booked more sharp money on the ‘dog and went down to Michigan -2.5. We saw a decent amount of public support for Michigan, enough action to get us back to -3, which is our current number.
“It’s going to be one of those games where the Joes are on the favorite and the Pros are backing the ‘dog. It’s a great game to book, as I believe we’ll write really nice two-way action. As long as it doesn’t land on 3, we’re going to make money.”
William Hill US, with dozens of shops around Vegas among more than 100 across Nevada, opened the Wolverines -3 and moved to -2.5.
“I’d say probably sharp money on A&M,” Bogdanovich said.Comment
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No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats
Open: -5 / Move: -5.5 / Move: -6 / Move: -6.5 / Move: -6
Kentucky is the massive beneficiary of a South Region bracket in tatters after the tournament’s first four days, with the top four seeds all being sent home. In Saturday’s second round, the blue-and-white clad Wildcats (26-10 SU, 19-17 ATS) faced No. 13 seed Buffalo, which stunningly steamrolled No. 4 Arizona in the first round. John Calipari’s troops had little trouble, though, winning 95-75 as a 5.5-point fave.
In a normal world, Kansas State would have faced No. 1 overall seed Virginia in Round 2, but instead got the giant killer of all giant killers, Maryland-Baltimore County, which hammered the Cavaliers in opening-round action. The purple-and-white-clad Wildcats (24-11 SU, 15-17 ATS) also had their hands full with UMBC, but pulled away in the last two minutes for a 50-43 victory laying 10 points Sunday.
“We opened Kentucky -5 and immediately got inundated with Kentucky money. We quickly went to -5.5, which really didn’t stop the Kentucky money from pouring in,” Childs said. “We went to -5.5 (-115) and eventually Kentucky -6, at which point we finally started to see some Kansas State money show. Prior to that, at -5, it was all Kentucky money, and at 5.5, it was about 80 percent Kentucky money.
“But again, since going to 6, we’re seeing much better two-way action on the game. Unless one of our sharper bettors comes in on the ‘dog, I believe we’ll remain at 6 until we see how the money comes in closer to game time.”
William Hill US opened Kentucky -5.5, got to 6.5 but has now peeled back to the opening number for this 9:37 p.m. ET tip on Thursday.
“We’ve got decent two-way action,” Bogdanovich said, noting sharp action likely helped reel this number back to 5.5. “It’s hard to say, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s the case.”Comment
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No. 11 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils
Open: -11.5 / Move: -11
Syracuse is the only other double-digit seed to break through the first weekend, doing it the hard way with three wins and three cashes. The Orange (23-13 SU, 17-17 ATS) edged Arizona State in a play-in game March 14, fended off Texas Christian on Friday, then drop-kicked No. 3 seed Michigan State, another team thought to be a strong national title contender.
In Sunday’s battle with the Spartans, Syracuse trailed 48-43 with under six minutes left, but finished on a 12-5 run to snare a 55-53 upset getting 10 points.
Duke’s presence in the Midwest Region semifinals isn’t surprising at all. The Blue Devils (28-7 SU, 22-11 ATS) notched a pair of 20-plus-point blowout victories, including an 87-62 bashing of Rhode Island as a 9-point fave Saturday to reach this 9:37 p.m. ET tipoff Friday.
“Syracuse is getting a tremendous amount of public support, and why wouldn’t they? They’re 3-0 ATS in this tournament, winning as outright ‘dogs in all three games,” Childs said. “While many people questioned the ‘Cuse for even being invited to the tournament, bettors have been going to the window supporting this team, and they’ve been rewarded quite well. But as well as the Orange have done so far, they’re going up against the best team in the country, in my honest opinion. Duke is just loaded, especially on offense, and unlike other teams that aren’t familiar with Syracuse’s amoeba zone, Duke is and won’t struggle finding ways to score against it.
“We opened Duke -11.5, and that number didn’t last long as the ‘Cuse has drawn all the money in this contest. We quickly got to 11 and I’m contemplating going to 10.5. But we’re talking about Duke, one of the public’s favorite teams to bet on, and I’m assuming we’ll eventually start seeing Duke money, especially as we get closer to tip.”Comment
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The Greek Sportsbook ...
Sweet 16 Sharp Action
Michigan / Texas A&M OverComment
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