March Madness Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Texas A & M / Michigan


The Aggies have the 10th rated defensive (efficiency) in the nation, while the Wolverines have the third rated defense in the nation. It's hard to look at anything but an under here. When you add that to the fact that there's no familiarity between these two teams, there should be a reasonable feeling out process. Of course that brings the 1H under into play as well.

There's no SEC team quite like Michigan, but Georgia and perhaps Missouri play at least a similar pace. The Aggies' game with UGA saw 121 points in Athens while their game with the Tigers saw 110 in Columbia. Michigan doesn't see a defense anywhere near what the Aggies will throw at them in the Big Ten, period. The two best defenses in the Big Ten were Nebraska and Ohio State. Michigan's games against Ohio State produced 133 and 136 points, and the Buckeyes have a better offense than Texas A & M. Michigan's games against Nebraska, including one in the Big Ten Tournament, ended with 130 and 123 points.

[New York Knight]

Florida / Gonzaga


The Zags come into this game having let Ohio State get closer than it looked like they would, and of course squeaking by UNC Greensboro, so at least in the public's eye maybe a little bit under rated. On the other hand FSU had the big comeback against #1 seed Xavier, so again, in the perception arena they could be a little over rated. The game is in Los Angeles, so a clear crowd advantage is likely for Gonzaga.

Florida State doesn't play many teams as quick or that play the kind of defense Gonzaga plays with the possible exception of Duke, who beat FSU 100-93 in Cameron Indoor way back in late December. Gonzaga of course plays exactly nobody like FSU in the WCC, but played several teams in non-conference play that could be considered more up-tempo than most. They won both games, against Washington and Creighton, handily. Like most games, this comes down to defense, and because FSU had the 13th ranked defense in the ACC, I cannot take them. Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over, nor does FSU create many. If FSU has an advantage it's that they get to the line with more regularity than Gonzaga, but that may not be enough. FSU was still a middle-of-the-road ACC team and if experience has anything to say here then Gonzaga will get it done.

[New York Knight]

Loyola-Chicago / Nevada


People will want to push Loyola to the Elite 8 and write off Nevada, but Nevada has already been written off twice. This is a game that I look at and see that Nevada is slightly favored, and I think to myself what this line would have been two weeks ago. My best guess is that on a neutral floor the Wolfpack would have been a considerably bigger favorite.

The thing here is that Loyola beat Miami, a team that I said before the Tournament started was fielding their worst team in five years, and could be vulnerable. They were, and youth probably had something to do with that. Loyola then beat Tennessee, a team that I said with Rick Barnes was going to do what Barnes' coached teams always do, lose. So, although Loyola has impressed me, they haven't beaten anyone they shouldn't have. We know what Nevada did against Cincinnati, but remember that they did similar against Texas, with Shaka Smart on the Longhorn bench, Mo Bamba, and perhaps an equally good defense as the one they saw against the Bearcats. Being down so many points, twice, simply has to give them that much more confidence in any situation, and they've got a ton of experience. Nevada doesn't turn the ball over and now has some rest they didn't have against Cincinnati, so if Sister Jean has Loyola losing in the Sweet Sixteen, who am I to buck the 98 year old team Chaplain.

[New York Knight]

Kansas State / Kentucky


Beating Davidson and Buffalo, who plays little or no defense, is not the same as beating Kansas State. The Wildcats on the other hand, beat a Creighton team that can't (or won't) play defense and then of course UMBC. The take away from the Baltimore County game is that Kansas State only scored 50 points.

This game, first and foremost, will be about Kansas State's ability to slow the game down to their pace, which is slow. Both Missouri an UGA in the SEC try the same approach, an although the games with Kentucky were lower scoring, Kentucky won all three games, with only the SEC opener in Lexington being close. We do know Kentucky is a better team today than they were then, albeit still very young. Kansas State will generally create more turnovers than Kentucky, and that could be a factor with Kentucky being young, and NOW having expectations. If the Wildcats keep Kentucky off the free throw line, they can win the game, and I certainly don't see 138 points being scored. If it gets that high, I have to think Kentucky wins/covers.

[New York Knight]

First-half Unders are the hot play of March Madness, going 35-17 (67% Unders) heading into Sweet 16.


Here are Thursday's 1st-half totals:

Nevada vs. Loyola-Chicago 63.5 1st half
Michigan vs. Texas A&M 63 1st half
Kentucky vs. KSU 69 1st half
Gonzaga vs. FSU 71.5 1st half

[New York Knight]

STEAM MOVE ...


UNDER KSU / KEN

OVER LOY CHI / NEV (1st Half)

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights ...

Loyola Chicago vs. Nevada


Spread: 60% on Wolf Pack -1

ML: 54% on Wolf Pack -127

O/U: 55% on Under 144.5


27,666 total bets

[New York Knight]

BetOnline ...


Loyola (Chi) vs Nevada action report ...


64% of $$ on Nevada (-1)

60% of bets on Nevada

Sharps on Loyola +2

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...

Sharp play on LOY-CHI helps take Ramblers from +2.5 to +1.5

[New York Knight]

A majority of spread tickets are on Texas A&M

Aggies +2.5 vs. Wolverines

Since 2005, fading trendy underdogs has gone 100-69-5 (59%) ATS in March Madness

[New York Knight]

Golden Nugget ...


"Out of the 4 games tonight, Kentucky has the most lopsided ticket count. Public is all over them"

[New York Knight]

Sports Insights ...

Wolverines vs. Aggies


Spread: 52% on Texas A&M

ML: 57% on Texas A&M +133

O/U: 57% on Over 136


27,794 total bets

[New York Knight]

Michigan beat Houston in Round of 32 on GW buzzer-beater.

Each of previous 5 teams to win NCAA Tournament game on buzzer-beater lost its next game.

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...


"Mid five figure bet on Texas A&M spread and low five figure bet on Texas A&M ML just took us off the black/black scenario and we now are rooting for the Wolverines with the big late A&M bets causing liability on that side"

[New York Knight]

The Action Network ...


52% of spread tickets and 59% of dollars are backing the Aggies