Gomes
12-1 last 13
Pick#1: New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5) (Play up to +5)
Pick#2
Series Play: New Orleans Pelicans to Advance
I expect this series to be very competitive and so, I believe there is value on New Orleans to win this series and also this Game 1. Portland's offense heavily relies on Lillard and McCollum, with their pick n roll plays being their biggest motor on offense. The Pelicans have been a great pick n roll defensive team all season long led by Holiday, who is the best pick n roll ball handler defensive player of the league. Besides playing very well on offense this season, Rondo is also having a good impact on the team, as shown on their spits on the second half of the season:
With Rondo: PACE=104.3 / OFF=108.6 / DEF=99.2 / NET=+9.3
Without Rondo: PACE=104.2 / OFF=106.6 / DEF=107.3 / NET=-0.7
Even if we assume that Portland will have some edge on the backcourt, New Orleans will counter with a big edge on the frontcourt. The biggest problem of the Pelicans' defense is that they have a small backcourt with a SF that is actually a SG and they struggled recently on a game at Golden State from that, as Durant had a mega game with 16-26 FG, 4-8 3pts, 5-7 FT for 31 points. However, Portland isn't a good opponent to expose these issues, as they lack a SF who can be an offensive threat to the Pelicans. On the other hand, Mirotic and Davis will be a problem for Portland, as they know how to play away from the basket on offense and make Nurkic clueless on defense, so I believe New Orleans will be a real tough matchup for Portland. So, I'll be taking the Pelicans on Game 1 and also to win the Series.
12-1 last 13
Pick#1: New Orleans Pelicans (+5.5) (Play up to +5)
Pick#2
Series Play: New Orleans Pelicans to Advance
I expect this series to be very competitive and so, I believe there is value on New Orleans to win this series and also this Game 1. Portland's offense heavily relies on Lillard and McCollum, with their pick n roll plays being their biggest motor on offense. The Pelicans have been a great pick n roll defensive team all season long led by Holiday, who is the best pick n roll ball handler defensive player of the league. Besides playing very well on offense this season, Rondo is also having a good impact on the team, as shown on their spits on the second half of the season:
With Rondo: PACE=104.3 / OFF=108.6 / DEF=99.2 / NET=+9.3
Without Rondo: PACE=104.2 / OFF=106.6 / DEF=107.3 / NET=-0.7
Even if we assume that Portland will have some edge on the backcourt, New Orleans will counter with a big edge on the frontcourt. The biggest problem of the Pelicans' defense is that they have a small backcourt with a SF that is actually a SG and they struggled recently on a game at Golden State from that, as Durant had a mega game with 16-26 FG, 4-8 3pts, 5-7 FT for 31 points. However, Portland isn't a good opponent to expose these issues, as they lack a SF who can be an offensive threat to the Pelicans. On the other hand, Mirotic and Davis will be a problem for Portland, as they know how to play away from the basket on offense and make Nurkic clueless on defense, so I believe New Orleans will be a real tough matchup for Portland. So, I'll be taking the Pelicans on Game 1 and also to win the Series.

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