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Race number 6 – Humana Distaff Stakes (Gr. 1) is for fillies and mares, four years old and upward run at a distance of seven furlongs over the dirt with a post time of 1:13 PM EST. Our selections are: 8-1-5
8. American Gal (7/2 ML) –returned to the track to kick off her four-year-old campaign on April 8thin the Madison (Gr. 1) at Keeneland and battled Finley’sluckycharm before relenting a finishing third. She needed that race to shake the rust off and she should do battle with Finley’sluckycharm again today, but should have the stamina to finish her off this time.Trainer Simon Callaghan retains jockey Jose Ortiz and American Gal should return to her winning ways.
9. Finley’sluckycharm (7-2 ML) –This five-year-old mare is a machine. She has finished first or second in 13 of her 15 career starts and she should do battle with American Gal again today.
10. Lewis Bay (3-1 ML) –This five-year-old mare is trained by Chad Brown and she seems to show up every race. She will sit off of the pace set by our top two choices and will be ready to pounce if the pace breaks down.
Race number 7 – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (Gr. 2) is for fillies and mares, four years old and upward run at a distance of one mile over the turf with a post time of 1:55 PM EST. Our selections are: 9-3-11
9. On Leave (8/1 ML) –this five-year-old mare for trainer Shug McGaughey is making her second start of 2018 and she has hit the board in 13 of her 15 career starts. If she shook the rust off in the Honey Fox (Gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park on March 31stshe should be ready to run a great race here.
10. Dream Awhile (7-2 ML) –The Chad Brown trainee is coming in off of a 10 week layoff but he has a knack for spotting his turf horses and she should be ready to fire today.
11. La Coronel (3-1 ML) –This Mark Casse trainee returns to Churchill Downs after winning the Edgewood (Gr. 3) on Derby day last year. She has not won a race yet in 2018, but should compete with this field.
Race number 8 – Churchill Downs Stakes presented by Twinspires.com (Gr. 2) is for four year olds and upward run at a distance at seven furlongs over the dirt with a post time of 2:45 PM EST. Our selections are: 3-7-1
3. Imperial Hint (9-5 ML) –all this horse does is win demonstrated by his 6 wins in his last seven races. He normally likes to take the lead, but with the presence of 2 Chief Cicatriz in this race he will sit just off the pace and wait to make his move when asked by jockey J.J. Castellano.
4. Limousine Liberal (4-1 ML) –this horse made me a ton of money last year on Derby day when we took advantage of a wet track which was to his liking. The six-year-old gelding shows no signs of slowing down and is making his second start off the layoff for trainer Ben Colebrook.
5. Whitmore (6-1 ML) –this five-year-old gelding has excelled as a sprinter since 2016, but this is the first time he has tried the seven furlong distance. Given that he is a closer, the extra distance should be to his liking.
Race number 9 – American Turf Stakes presented by Ram Trucks (Gr. 2) is for three year olds at a distance of one and one sixteenth miles over the turf with a post time of 3:37 PM EST. Our selections are: 9-1-6
9. Captivating Moon (6/1 ML) –the scratch of Rushing Fall has made this a wide open affair and this colt has made four starts on the turf in his career and has finished in the Exacta in each of those starts.He will be flying late and has a great turf jockey in Florent Geroux. We are getting value here at anything near the morning line.
10. Speed Franco (6-1 ML) –the only time this colt missed the Exacta is when they tried to shorten him up to a 7.5 furlong distance. He can fly and jockey Emisael Jaramillo is fearless and will try to wire this field from the inside post position.
11. River Boyne (5-1 ML) –comes in riding a three race win streak as he adjusts to North American racing after beginning his career in Europe. If he continues to improve he could be a factor in here.
Race number 10 – Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by LG and E and KU (Gr. 3) is for three year olds at a distance of one mile over the dirt with a post time of 4:28 PM EST. Our selections: 8-11-12
8. Mask (4-1 ML)– trainer Chad Brown has another good three-year-old colt in his barn and this one has been training with Derby contender Good Magic and looking good according to reports. The Mucho Macho Man winner has not been seen since his victory in January at Gulfstream Park, but if he improves on that effort he should clear this field.
9. Sporting Chance (8-1 ML)– This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was expected by his connections to be a Derby horse, but an erratic stretch run in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 2) at Keeneland left him out of the Derby field. I don’t think he wants the distance and the drop back to the mile distance might be just what this colt needs.
10. Restoring Hope (9-2 ML)– Mike Smith jumps on this Bob Baffert trainee, and Baffert puts the blinkers back on after a nice third place finish in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct on April 7th. Baffert had high hopes with this one before Derby prep season, but he fell behind fellow barn mates, Justify, McKinzie and Solomini in training and didn’t earn enough points to qualify for today’s main event. He is out of Giant’s Causeway and has shown heart in each of his starts.
Race number 11 – Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes (Gr. 1) is for four year olds and upward at a distance of one and one eighth miles over the turn with a post time of 5:25 PM EST. Our selections: 10-9-6
10. Beach Patrol (5-2 ML) –makes his 2018 debut off of a five plus month layoff for Chad Brown. If he runs back to his recent performances he should handle this field with ease. As we saw on Friday though neither Abel Talsman nor Rushing Fall could dominate fields that they appeared to out class so make sure you don’t key him in all of your multi-race wagers.
11. Yoshida (15-1 ML) –trainer Bill Mott does not always have them ready to fire first off a long layoff, but my gut is telling me that we are getting value with this one anywhere near that morning line. He closed out 2017 with a win and two second place finishes and should be charging down the lane late.
12. Arklow (12-1 ML) –making his third start off of a layoff for the red hot Brad Cox barn, this colt has shown steady improvement and a late closing kick that will benefit him in this field.
Race number 12 – Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (Gr. 1) is for three year olds at a distance of one and one fourth miles over the dirt with a post time of 6:50 PM EST. Our selections: 6-9-7
6. Good Magic (12-1 ML) –I have been high on this colt since last fall and loved his run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he just ran by the field. I think he will sit off a fast early pace set by Promises Fulfilled and possibly Justify and make his move in the far turn. I think he has the determination to hold off the late chargers and give Chad Brown his first Kentucky Derby victory.
7. Hofburg (20-1 ML) –I loved the charge this colt made in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1) at Gulfstream Park in only his third career start. He is developing rapidly and all indications this week are that he looked good on the track and is improving. It has been a number of years since we have seen a longshot win the Kentucky Derby, but this may just be the horse to blow up the tote board.
8. Justify (3-1 ML) – I’ve really struggled with this selection as I keep having flashbacks to 2015 and a Bob Baffert trainee who came into the Derby undefeated and was being called a “freak”.That horse was Dortmund who went on to finish third in that Derby to eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.Dortmund had six races under his belt going into the Derby including two Grade One wins. Justify has one Grade One win, an impressive Santa Anita Derby, but other than that he has not been tested. I also fear he will try to battle Promises Fulfilled out of the gate and run himself out before the race really starts, but I guess that is why they run the race.
Other horses I would recommend having on your exotic tickets are:
11.Bolt d’Oro
12.Audible
13.Lone Sailor
14.Magnum Moon
15.Combatant (he will make one late run and could crash the Trifecta and Superfecta)
I am against Mendelssohn and if he makes me look like a fool, it won’t be the first time, or the last. Either way, enjoy the Kentucky Derby whether you are at the track, an OTB, a Derby party or just at home in front of your TV with a $2 win ticket and a dream.
Race number 6 – Humana Distaff Stakes (Gr. 1) is for fillies and mares, four years old and upward run at a distance of seven furlongs over the dirt with a post time of 1:13 PM EST. Our selections are: 8-1-5
8. American Gal (7/2 ML) –returned to the track to kick off her four-year-old campaign on April 8thin the Madison (Gr. 1) at Keeneland and battled Finley’sluckycharm before relenting a finishing third. She needed that race to shake the rust off and she should do battle with Finley’sluckycharm again today, but should have the stamina to finish her off this time.Trainer Simon Callaghan retains jockey Jose Ortiz and American Gal should return to her winning ways.
9. Finley’sluckycharm (7-2 ML) –This five-year-old mare is a machine. She has finished first or second in 13 of her 15 career starts and she should do battle with American Gal again today.
10. Lewis Bay (3-1 ML) –This five-year-old mare is trained by Chad Brown and she seems to show up every race. She will sit off of the pace set by our top two choices and will be ready to pounce if the pace breaks down.
Race number 7 – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (Gr. 2) is for fillies and mares, four years old and upward run at a distance of one mile over the turf with a post time of 1:55 PM EST. Our selections are: 9-3-11
9. On Leave (8/1 ML) –this five-year-old mare for trainer Shug McGaughey is making her second start of 2018 and she has hit the board in 13 of her 15 career starts. If she shook the rust off in the Honey Fox (Gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park on March 31stshe should be ready to run a great race here.
10. Dream Awhile (7-2 ML) –The Chad Brown trainee is coming in off of a 10 week layoff but he has a knack for spotting his turf horses and she should be ready to fire today.
11. La Coronel (3-1 ML) –This Mark Casse trainee returns to Churchill Downs after winning the Edgewood (Gr. 3) on Derby day last year. She has not won a race yet in 2018, but should compete with this field.
Race number 8 – Churchill Downs Stakes presented by Twinspires.com (Gr. 2) is for four year olds and upward run at a distance at seven furlongs over the dirt with a post time of 2:45 PM EST. Our selections are: 3-7-1
3. Imperial Hint (9-5 ML) –all this horse does is win demonstrated by his 6 wins in his last seven races. He normally likes to take the lead, but with the presence of 2 Chief Cicatriz in this race he will sit just off the pace and wait to make his move when asked by jockey J.J. Castellano.
4. Limousine Liberal (4-1 ML) –this horse made me a ton of money last year on Derby day when we took advantage of a wet track which was to his liking. The six-year-old gelding shows no signs of slowing down and is making his second start off the layoff for trainer Ben Colebrook.
5. Whitmore (6-1 ML) –this five-year-old gelding has excelled as a sprinter since 2016, but this is the first time he has tried the seven furlong distance. Given that he is a closer, the extra distance should be to his liking.
Race number 9 – American Turf Stakes presented by Ram Trucks (Gr. 2) is for three year olds at a distance of one and one sixteenth miles over the turf with a post time of 3:37 PM EST. Our selections are: 9-1-6
9. Captivating Moon (6/1 ML) –the scratch of Rushing Fall has made this a wide open affair and this colt has made four starts on the turf in his career and has finished in the Exacta in each of those starts.He will be flying late and has a great turf jockey in Florent Geroux. We are getting value here at anything near the morning line.
10. Speed Franco (6-1 ML) –the only time this colt missed the Exacta is when they tried to shorten him up to a 7.5 furlong distance. He can fly and jockey Emisael Jaramillo is fearless and will try to wire this field from the inside post position.
11. River Boyne (5-1 ML) –comes in riding a three race win streak as he adjusts to North American racing after beginning his career in Europe. If he continues to improve he could be a factor in here.
Race number 10 – Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by LG and E and KU (Gr. 3) is for three year olds at a distance of one mile over the dirt with a post time of 4:28 PM EST. Our selections: 8-11-12
8. Mask (4-1 ML)– trainer Chad Brown has another good three-year-old colt in his barn and this one has been training with Derby contender Good Magic and looking good according to reports. The Mucho Macho Man winner has not been seen since his victory in January at Gulfstream Park, but if he improves on that effort he should clear this field.
9. Sporting Chance (8-1 ML)– This D. Wayne Lukas trainee was expected by his connections to be a Derby horse, but an erratic stretch run in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 2) at Keeneland left him out of the Derby field. I don’t think he wants the distance and the drop back to the mile distance might be just what this colt needs.
10. Restoring Hope (9-2 ML)– Mike Smith jumps on this Bob Baffert trainee, and Baffert puts the blinkers back on after a nice third place finish in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct on April 7th. Baffert had high hopes with this one before Derby prep season, but he fell behind fellow barn mates, Justify, McKinzie and Solomini in training and didn’t earn enough points to qualify for today’s main event. He is out of Giant’s Causeway and has shown heart in each of his starts.
Race number 11 – Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes (Gr. 1) is for four year olds and upward at a distance of one and one eighth miles over the turn with a post time of 5:25 PM EST. Our selections: 10-9-6
10. Beach Patrol (5-2 ML) –makes his 2018 debut off of a five plus month layoff for Chad Brown. If he runs back to his recent performances he should handle this field with ease. As we saw on Friday though neither Abel Talsman nor Rushing Fall could dominate fields that they appeared to out class so make sure you don’t key him in all of your multi-race wagers.
11. Yoshida (15-1 ML) –trainer Bill Mott does not always have them ready to fire first off a long layoff, but my gut is telling me that we are getting value with this one anywhere near that morning line. He closed out 2017 with a win and two second place finishes and should be charging down the lane late.
12. Arklow (12-1 ML) –making his third start off of a layoff for the red hot Brad Cox barn, this colt has shown steady improvement and a late closing kick that will benefit him in this field.
Race number 12 – Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (Gr. 1) is for three year olds at a distance of one and one fourth miles over the dirt with a post time of 6:50 PM EST. Our selections: 6-9-7
6. Good Magic (12-1 ML) –I have been high on this colt since last fall and loved his run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he just ran by the field. I think he will sit off a fast early pace set by Promises Fulfilled and possibly Justify and make his move in the far turn. I think he has the determination to hold off the late chargers and give Chad Brown his first Kentucky Derby victory.
7. Hofburg (20-1 ML) –I loved the charge this colt made in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1) at Gulfstream Park in only his third career start. He is developing rapidly and all indications this week are that he looked good on the track and is improving. It has been a number of years since we have seen a longshot win the Kentucky Derby, but this may just be the horse to blow up the tote board.
8. Justify (3-1 ML) – I’ve really struggled with this selection as I keep having flashbacks to 2015 and a Bob Baffert trainee who came into the Derby undefeated and was being called a “freak”.That horse was Dortmund who went on to finish third in that Derby to eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.Dortmund had six races under his belt going into the Derby including two Grade One wins. Justify has one Grade One win, an impressive Santa Anita Derby, but other than that he has not been tested. I also fear he will try to battle Promises Fulfilled out of the gate and run himself out before the race really starts, but I guess that is why they run the race.
Other horses I would recommend having on your exotic tickets are:
11.Bolt d’Oro
12.Audible
13.Lone Sailor
14.Magnum Moon
15.Combatant (he will make one late run and could crash the Trifecta and Superfecta)
I am against Mendelssohn and if he makes me look like a fool, it won’t be the first time, or the last. Either way, enjoy the Kentucky Derby whether you are at the track, an OTB, a Derby party or just at home in front of your TV with a $2 win ticket and a dream.
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