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IT’S the series everyone has wanted all season long; but will it live up to the hype?
We’re saying: no.
The Warriors have simply flicked the switch come playoffs and established themselves as the team to beat if you want to win a ring – so why is it that the Rockets are being favoured for Game 1?
At worst- the Warriors will head back to Oracle Arena 1-1 on the series and if they lose Game 1 we’ll get the same odds on them for Game 2 where we can adjust our stake accordingly.
But, here’s why the Warriors are going to win this series (outside of what we highlighted in our series preview for those on board already).
Despite dropping just two games so far these playoffs (just as Golden State have) the Rockets have shown a vulnerability that simply doesn’t exist on this Warriors’ team.
Last round, Utah demonstrated what was necessary in defending this Mike D’Antoni offence. They stole a road game in Houston but injuries simply took their toll and their offence didn’t have enough to carry them past this stacked Rockets team.
Golden State won’t be anywhere near as forgiving. The Rockets allowed Utah to shoot at 45.7% from the field, while themselves shooting at just 44.7% throughout the series. You give those numbers to this Warriors team and you’re looking at a sweep.
The Pelicans tried everything on offence to push past this juggernaut but they simply couldn’t get it done, and that’s saying something considering how easily they were scoring on teams to close out the regular season.
The Warriors held New Orleans to just 44.6% shooting from the field, including holding them to just 34.3% from beyond the arc. Steve Kerr knows the importance of not allowing Houston to run in transition to find open looks on the perimeter and he knows he has the pieces to prevent that from happening as well.
The length and athleticism of Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will be crucial this series and the fact that their rotation is better than any team in the NBA (although Boston would have a case here) makes them extremely difficult to break down.
The problem for Houston will be if the Warriors turn this into a half-court game and slow the tempo down to an uncomfortable pace. The Rockets pick’n’roll offence simply doesn’t execute as well in the playoffs and we know that trying to win a game of iso-ball against this defence is a slow death for any team.
While we’re not trying to discredit how good Houston really are we just feel there’s too many pieces on this Warriors roster that can get it done on both ends. Couple that with the fact that our data shows the Warriors going at least 1-1 almost 72% of the time and you have plenty of value on them here, with plenty of options come Game 2 should they fall short.
We love the value, we love the match ups and we love the coaching advantage in favour of the road team in this one. Take the Warriors in what could be a shorter series than many are anticipating.
Tip: Golden State Warriors @ $2.05 (Ladbrokes)
6-Unit Play. Take #057-058 Vegas/Winnipeg GAME TOTAL OVER 6 +100 (Monday, May 14th at 8:00 PM ET)
Take Vegas/Winnipeg GAME TOTAL OVER as my 6-Unit NHL Smash for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NHL systems and I see this being a 5-4 type of game here tonight. Both of these teams have the ability to score quickly and the last game really should have went way over the posted total. The Jets power-play is on fire converting at 35.7% over their last 5 games and at 26.1% at home this season. The Jets penalty-kill has been terrible with opponents converting at 33.3% against them over their last 5 games and the Golden Knights have converted at 22.2% with the extra-man over their last 5 games. The Jets have averaged 3.8 gpg at home this season and Vegas has averaged 3.3 gpg overall this season. I expect another big break out period here to send this game over the posted total. Play the OVER as we move to 19-6 my last 25 NHL picks.
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