Wednesday 7-11-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Ross Benjamin

Jul 11 '18, 10:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Dodgers vs Padres
Play on: Dodgers -1½ +101 at pinnacle

Dodgers (Maeda) @ Padres (Lucchesi) 10:10 PM ET
Game# 911-912
Play On: Dodgers -1.5 (+101)
The good news for Padres backers is their team was a 4-1 winner over the Dodgers last night. However, and unfortunately for those loyalists, San Diego has gone 0-7 in their last 7 following a win during their previous game, and they lost by 2 runs or more on 6 of those occasions. Conversely, the Dodgers last 7 wins have all been by 2 runs or more.
San Diego is scheduled to face Dodgers right-hander Kent Maeda this evening. Maeda has averaged 6.4 strikeouts per start this season. That’s significant since the Padres are a dismal 6-25 this year when facing a pitcher that averages 5.0 or more strikeouts per start. Furthermore, they were outscored by an average of 3.0 runs per game during those 31 outings. Additionally, San Diego has gone 5-19 in 2018 as a money line home underdog of +100 or greater and were outscored by a decisive 3.4 runs per game. By the way, Kent Maeda has compiled an excellent 1.37 ERA and 0.81 WHIP throughout his previous 3 starts. Bet on the Dodgers as a run line favorite for my Wednesday 7/11 free pick of the day.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Jul 11 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Mets
Play on: Mets -157 at 5Dimes

My free play is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. Philadelphia won 7-3 last night in Queens against the Mets and has now won 10 of its last 13 contests to climb back into first place in the National League East at 51-39, one game ahead of Atlanta. It marks the first time the Phillies have been in first place after July 1 since 2011, when they won the last of five straight division titles. Meanwhile, the 36-53 Mets are battling the 38-56 Marlins in an effort to stay out of the division's basement. New York has scored just eight runs while losing four of its last five games overall and takes the field tonight having lost 19 of its last 23 at home in Citi Field.
Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69 ERA) takes the mound for Philly for his first start since landing on the 10-day disabled list after getting drilled on the right forearm by a line drive. Velasquez won three consecutive starts (May 5-17) but has just one win over his last eight outings (he's 1-4 and the Phils are 2-6). Philly's 26-year-old will take a 1-3 record with a 4.61 ERA in six career starts against the Mets in tonight's series finale.
Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.79 ERA) will make his last scheduled start prior to the All-Star Game as the New York Mets bid to salvage a split of their four-game series against the visiting Phillies. DeGrom is the Mets' lone representative in the Midsummer Classic but he's been plagued by a lack of offensive support, leaving him with just five wins and a team record of 7-11, minus-$748), despite leading the majors with a 1.79 ERA. A perfect example was deGrom's most recent start when he allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings against Tampa Bay last Friday. but settling for a no-decision in a 5-1 New York win. More hard-luck evidence is revealed in that despite allowing just 15 runs in 64 innings over his last nine starts, deGrom owns just a 1-4 record (Mets are 2-7!).
I played deGrom in his last outing (New York won on a walk-off grand slam in the 9th) and I'll back him again here, as he squares off against a much inferior mound opponent in Velasquez. It doesn't hurt that deGrom is 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 12 career starts against the Phillies. Take New York.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Jul 11 '18, 8:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Cardinals vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox +1½ -130 at 5Dimes

After getting embarrassed in yesterday's opener, their first home game after 10 straight on the road, the Sox have now dropped six straight. They should bounce back with a better effort this evening. Rodon delivered a quality start last time out, allowing two runs through six complete. Unfortunately for him, that start came at Houston and he was h2h with Verlander. The end result was a no-decision for Rodon and a 1-run loss for Chicago. Now, Rodon returns home, where he's got a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. He'll face Weaver, who has a poor 5.10 ERA on the season and a 5.89 ERA his last three. Rodon's last home start saw him allow just two runs through eight innings, the Sox winning 10-3. Expect them to respond with AT LEAST a "run-line cover" this evening. Consider Chicago on the run-line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Jul 11 '18, 8:10 PM in 4h
MLB | A's vs Astros
Play on: Astros -1½ -110 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-110)
Lance McCullers has been dynamite at home in his career. That has been the case again this season as McCullers is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight home starts. He is already 3-0 in three starts against the A’s this season while giving up just 4 earned runs in 19 innings for a 1.89 ERA. Chris Bassitt is getting too much respect from the books for posting a 3.00 ERA in five starts this season. But those five have come against the Padres, Tigers, White Sox, Angels and Royals. This will be by far his toughest matchup of the season in the Astros. The A’s are 2-8 in Bassitt’s last 10 road starts. Oakland is 1-5 in Bassitt’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Astros are 7-0 in McCullers’ last seven starts. Give me the Astros on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Jul 11 '18, 8:40 PM in 5h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -122 at BetPhoenix

10* FREE MLB PICK (Rockies -122)
I'll take my chances here with Colorado at home against the Diamondbacks. Arizona won the series opener 5-3 on Tuesday, but will have a hard time scoring enough runs to take game 2. The Diamondbacks will send out Shelby Miller, who is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in 3 starts. Coors Field is the last place you want to start when things aren't going well and Miller's most recent start at Coors saw him give up 7 runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Colorado will counter with German Marquez, who has a not so great 5.01 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in 18 starts. However, Marquez is coming in off two great starts. He held the Dodgers to 1 run on 2 hits in 8 innings on 6/30 and the Mariners to 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings on 7/6. Give me the Rockies -122!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin

Jul 11 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Reds vs Indians
Play on: Reds +180 at 5Dimes

DMack's Free Play for Wednesday, July 11, 2018 is on the Cincinnati Reds (Mahle Listed)
The Reds have really been playing well since the change in coaches and you get lots of bang for your buck here. Tyler Mahle has proven that he's a big league pitcher and he's 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in his road starts, his ERA is 2.60 in his L3 starts overall. Cleveland has lost 4 of 5 and suffered a complete meltdown last night with the pen. At this point, the Tribe shouldn't be a $2.00 fave to anyone. Take the very live dog Cincinnati Reds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton


My Wednesday comp play is the Over in the Yankees-Orioles series finale.


This may well be Sonny Gray's last start in the rotation for New York, as the Yankees key acquisition from a season ago has totally lost his way. At home or away, Gray has been like putting gasoline on a fire as he totes in an ERA of 12.27 for his last 3 starts, and a season ERA of 5.85. Just hard to expect him to go out there and limit the bleeding, and even if he does, Aaron Boone will likely pull him before he can face any real danger, so either way I expect to see runs cross for the Orioles.


Likewise, the Yankees should chase home a few off of Dylan Bundy who sports an ERA of 6.82 for his last 3 starts with 2 of those 3 landing Over the total.


Game 2 of the double-header on Monday saw the Yankees cross home plate 10 times. Last night the Yankees were able to score 5 runs, while they allowed 6 runs to be scored against them, part of another Over.


Let's look for Gray and Bundy to do what they usually do and that is give up their fair share of runs.


Yankees-Orioles Over the total tonight.


5* N.Y. YANKEES-BALTIMORE OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Your Wednesday freebie is the Rangers-Red Sox Over the total.

Chris Sale has an unbelievable ERA of 0.45 for his last 3 starts, so it is highly unlikely the Rangers are going to be posting very many crooked digit innings off of him tonight, but the fact is, 2 of Sale's last 3 starts have landed Over the total.

The reason for the Overs is the Boston offense is simply locked-in at the dish right now. Boston is averaging 7.8 runs per game during their current 8 game winning streak, and the Over is 5-2 their last 7 games.

Bartolo Colon has been known to get rocked, and his season ERA is 4.65, so look for the Sox to continue to sock it, and for the Rangers-Red Sox to land Over the total.

Texas-Boston Over.

3* TEXAS-BOSTON OVER

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Pure Lock

MLB CINCINNATI REDS +185

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R and R Totals

MLB DETROIT TIGERS/TAMPA BAY RAYS ‑105 u8

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Lasvegasmoneymachine

MLB ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ‑150