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Saturday 9-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, September 1, 2018
CF (183) MID TENNESSEE STATE VS (184) VANDERBILT
Take: (183) MID TENNESSEE STATE
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, September 1, 2018 is in the College football contest between Middle Tennessee State and Vanderbilt. Your free play is on Middle Tennessee State.
The fact that Urban Meyer is suspended for the first 3 games and the Buckeyes have to replace J.T. Barrett, one of their most successful quarterbacks in program history, will have a lot of people afraid to lay this big number with Ohio State when they host Oregon State in Week 1.
Not me. I don't think the Beavers have any hopes of keeping this game close. Simply put, Ohio State is one of the most talented teams in the country and Oregon State is one of the worst Power 5 programs out there.
Last year the Beavers gave up a ridiculous 43 ppg and were atrocious against the run, allowing 326 ypg (5.5 yards/carry). Even if Dwayne Harris struggles at quarterback, which I don't think he will at all, the Buckeyes should run wild on this defense with the talent they have on the offensive line and at running back with JK Dobbins and Mike Weber.
Not to mention Oregon State is down their top returning tackler in safety David Morris. They will also be without projected starting defensive end Jeromy Reichner and starting corner Isaiah Dunn is questionable.
As for the Beaver's offense, I wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score until late when the game is completely out of hand. Oregon State only managed 20.7 ppg last year and will be starting a quarterback with 4 career starts against one of the best defensive lines in the country. Take Ohio State!
The Nebraska Cornhuskers hired the right guy. Scott Frost is going to do a great job with this program. Still, I have to believe it is going to take some time for things to work the way people are expecting. Frost didn't change the UCF program overnight, and Nebraska doesn't have the talent that Frost needs to be great right away. They are learning a new system, and they have a bunch of inexperience at key positions. Nebraska has been steamed by the betting public because of their love for Scott Frost.
Akron has a fairly strong defense, and they have a good coach in Tommy Bowden. The Zips won't overlook this game at all. My numbers had Nebraska by 20 here, and six points of value is hard to pass up.
Look for Nebraska to struggle more than expected here. Grab the points.
ALEX SMART
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Louisville vs. Alabama
Louisville+24½
Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL
My early season power rankings suggest Louisville is very under rated according to this line while, Alabama despite of being reliable top tier national program of late and ranked No.1 in the AP Poll is being over rated as a lot of key personnel changes are underway. It must also be noted that Louisville owns a strong 7-0 ATS record as double-digit dogs, and have covered 5 of their L/6 season openers . Alabama is also just 1-12 ATS as a non-conference favorite of 21 or more points. With that said, the innovative Bobby Petrino and company gets my support here in the underdog role despite of having to move the ball without LeMar Jackson who has now gone to the NFL. Note: Louisville still returns 7 starters on offense, and QB Jawon Pass has an arm that is stronger than his predecessor and must not be underestimated.
MATT FARGO
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
UMass vs. Boston College
UMass+18 -108
Expectations are high in Chestnut Hill as Boston College is coming off a pair of 7-6 seasons and it returns 16 starters. The Eagles finished strong last season with wins in five of their last six games but lost to Iowa in the Pinstripe Bowl to kill the offseason momentum. Defense used to be the strength of this team but they struggled mightily against the run last season and they lost five starters including All-ACC defensive end Harold Landy. On the other side of the ball, one big issue that could limit the Eagles is that quarterback Anthony Brown is recovering from a serious knee injury and only returned to live action recently. Massachusetts is coming off its best season since joining the FBS and while 4-8 does not look very good, it was considered a very successful season. What made it especially promising was that the Minutemen closed by going 4-2 in their last six games and of the eight losses, six of those were by 10 points or less and another loss to Mississippi St. by just 11 points. Like the Eagles, Massachusetts has 16 starters returning with the bulk of those on offense that was very potent down the stretch. Quarterback Andrew Ford was outstanding, throwing for 2,924 yards with 22 touchdowns and just four picks. The Minutemen have the advantage of already playing a game last week as they rolled over Duquesne and while the opponent was not a good one, it gives them game experience. They fall into a profitable situation where we play on road underdogs that averaged 400 or more total ypg last season, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game.
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