Saturday 9-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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JACK JONES

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Northern Illinois +10.5

The Northern Illinois Huskies aren’t afraid of the big boys. They have been the best team in the MAC over the past decade and have pulled off several big upsets along the way. They beat Iowa on the road back in 2013. They won at Northwestern in 2014. They only lost by 7 as 34-point dogs at Ohio State in 2015. And they pulled the upset as 11-point underdogs at Nebraska in 2017.

This will be one of Rod Carey’s best teams yet at Northern Illinois. The Huskies return 14 starters, including eight on offense. Sophomore QB Marcus Childers will take the next step forward after earning MAC Freshman of the Year honors last season. All 5 starters return along the offensive line with 111 career starts among them.

The Huskies are coming off a great defensive season in which they gave up just 22.0 points per game. They have 6 starters back on D this year, led by 2017 MAC Defensive Player of the Year Sutton Smith at defensive end. He had 14 sacks plus another 15.5 tackles for loss last season and is a one-man wrecking crew.

Smith will certainly challenge an Iowa offensive line that will be missing its two starting offensive tackles in RT Tristan Wirfs & LT Alaric Jackson due to suspension. The Hawkeyes lack playmakers at receiver yet again this season, which is why a talented QB like Nathan Stanley won’t put up big numbers. And they lose their best playmaker from last season in RB Akrum Wadley, who accounted for 1,462 yards and 13 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2017.

The Hawkeyes lose six of their top eight tacklers defensively. They must break in three new starters at linebacker. And their depth along the defensive line is in question for the opener because both Brady Reiff and Cedrick Lattimore are out with suspensions. Both are on the 2-deep at defensive line.

Rod Carey is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northern Illinois. Carey is 22-10 ATS in all road games with the Huskies. Better yet, the Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Huskies are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 road games overall. The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MAC foes. Bet Northern Illinois Saturday.

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DOUG UPSTONE
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Texas State vs. Rutgers
UNDER 47

On Saturday, Play Under teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 (TEXAS ST. and RUTGERS) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, against an opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. In the last 25, this situation is 38-8 UNDER, which is 82.6 percent!

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KENNY WALKER
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
North Carolina vs. California
North Carolina+7½ -110

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R&R TOTALS

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 9-1-18

UNDER 63 1/2 Massachusetts/Boston College

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MATT JOSEPHS
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Florida Atlantic vs. Oklahoma
OVER 69

The Sooners begin their quest to return to the college football playoff on Saturday as they host Florida Atlantic. Kyler Murray is foregoing baseball for now as he inherits the quarterback position from Baker Mayfield. Murray will be doing a lot of handing off to Rodney Anderson who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2017. There's some talent at wide receiver and the line is pretty strong. The Sooners defense has six starters back and they were an exploitable unit at times last season. The team gave up 54 to Georgia, 41 to Baylor and 38 to Iowa State. Florida Atlantic went 11-3 last season and brings back 15 starters of their own. Devin Singletary leads the way on offense and "Motor" ran through pretty much all of his opponents last year. This would be a revenge game for quarterback Chris Robison who used to be a Sooner. We don't know if he or DeAndre Johnson will be under center for this one. FAU's defense returns a bunch of starters, but they struggled against teams with an offensive pulse. FAU allowed 42 to Navy, 31 to Wisconsin and 34 to Buffalo in 2017. I think the Sooners rock and roll early putting up big time amount of points in a big win over FAU.

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FREDDY WILLS

NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018

Oklahoma -20.5 1.1% Free Play

This line opened up at -24, and has dropped down to a point where I think there is value on the heavy favorite. I have said Oklahoma is a team you could fade this year in LIncoln Riley's second year, but this is the type of game I think they may want to come out and blow out Florida Atlantic. FAU is getting a lot of credit here and actually taking a good % of the bets with some even calling for a possible upset, because Lane Kiffin is there and they won 10 straight games a year ago, and finished 10-3-1 ATS.

10-3-1 ATS to me means we are going to have value fading FAU and the line is already giving us 3.5 points of value. I actually looked back at non-power 5 schools and head coaches in their second year and FAU is in a major fade spot. Teams with coaches in their second year at a non-power five school following 9 or more wins ATS have gone a combined 14-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. FAU is also returning just 5 starters on the offense from last year and they are breaking in a new QB and they will have to face an Oklahoma defense that should be much better in 2018.

Oklahoma meanwhile I have mentioned that I don't trust Kyler Murray, but in a game against a C-USA opponent I see no problem with this offense putting up huge #'s. last year against UTEP & Tulane, Oklahoma scored 56 points. The Big 12 has outscored the C-USA by 22 points on average over 40+ games since 2010. There is obviously a big talent gap, this game is at Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is very motivated to prove that their offense won't miss a beat without Baker, and that their defense is better and they are still the team to beat in 2018.

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Chip Chirimbes

Texas vs. Maryland Noon ET

Terrapins (+) over Longhorns

'How soon they forget!' Do any of you guys remember that these two clubs meet in their opening game last season and Texas was a heavy (-18) favorite and got completely demolished 51-41 and they struggled to overcome it the rest of the season. I haven't heard a thing about it. I've heard of the death on campus and the powerful Texas offense that brings thoughts of Earl Campbell, Rickey Williams and Vince Young to mind as well as a coach that can 'heal' other people's relationships. Enough of that stuff. I just believe this will be an emotional test for Maryland and I expect the best they have out of them here. By the way the Terrapins have some quality players of their now on offense a veteran line and multitude purpose runner. Take MARYLAND!

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CAPPERS CLUB
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Central Michigan vs. Kentucky
Central Michigan+17½

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Central Michigan Chippewas and Kentucky Wildcats face off on Saturday and in this game the underdogs have the value.

The Kentucky Wildcats are hyped up every year and every year they turn into be big disappointments.

The Chippewas are going to be a good team in the MAC this year and there is no reason they should be this big of underdogs.

Back the Chippewas.

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ROB VINCILETTI

The College Football comp play is on Akron plus the 26 points at 8:00 eastern.

Akron is the beneficiary of a 30-9 opening week system that plays against Nebraska and any game 1 favorite that won 5 or less last year vs a team that won 4 or more. These teams are 9-30 ats since 1990. Akron has covered the last 4 on the road with a total that is 52 to 56. The Huskers have failed to cover 5 of 6 at home if the total is 49 to 56. The Huskers lost 5 of 7 at home last year and allowed 36 points here. Nebraska wins but Akron gets the cover. Take the 26+ points.

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BEN BURNS
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
UNLV vs. USC
USC-26 -110

If you're looking for a "blowout" on the first full Saturday of football, check out USC. The Trojans, who are 18-1 their last 19 home openers, know that they have a pair of fairly tough road games (Stanford & Texas) coming up in Weeks 2 and 3. They also know that if they can survive those two games, they have a great shot at running the table. That makes taking care of business and building confidence crucial here. The Rebels may be improved from last season but we won't see that here; the Trojans are a National Title contender. Expect a "statement blowout." Consider laying the points with USC.

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BRAD DIAMOND
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
UTSA vs. Arizona State
Arizona State-19½

I am putting this up early as the line has been moving. Arizona State could be under valued from the power rating standpoint. The futures for winning the conference 100/1. UTSA has just 10 starters returning which bring an effective yield of 40% production. Get this now!

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DUSTIN HAWKINS
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Oregon State vs. Ohio State
Free Play on Oregon State vs Ohio State under 64½ -110

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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Sep 01, 2018
Southampton vs. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace-102

I think we see a 2-1 win by Crystal Palace on Saturday. This soccer match takes place in England.

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Doc’s Sports

Take #184 Vanderbilt Commodores over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 1 SECN)

Coach Derek Mason will enter his fifth season as head coach and he is on the hot seat despite facing numerous academic challengers imposed by the university. He made a bowl game in 2016 but feel just short of going bowling last year with a 5-7 record. The Commodores have had great success in this series winning three straight games against the Blue Raiders the last three years. The last two have been blowouts and that is how I see this game going as well. Vanderbilt is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games against Conference USA teams. MTSU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against SEC teams. Lay the points in this game.

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ART ARONSON
NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2018
Louisville vs. Alabama
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on Alabama.

Louisville faces off with No. 1 Alabama in Orlando in a neutral site affair on Saturday night and in our opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. The Cardinals finished 8-5 last year, eventually losing 31-27 to Mississippi State in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Crimson Tide were 13-1 and they’d go on to beat Georgia 26-23 in OT in the title game. Note that these teams haven’t played each other since 1991. While the Cardinals finished with an overall winning record last year, they were a poor 4-4 in ACC action. Both teams have plenty of positions to fill, but we expect Louisville to struggle more without Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson under center. And despite the turnover for Alabama, the Tide are once again expected to lead the country on both sides of the ball this season. Alabama’s run game will be on full display here, keep your eyes on Damien Harris (had 1,000 yards and 11 TD’s last year) and Najee Harris (370 yards, three TD’s.) It also doesn’t hurt that two competent athletes will be battling it out for the No. 1 QB spot between Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa for the Tide. We think the “bigger” and “deeper” SEC defending national Champions take full advantage of a Louisville team which is looking for an identity early. Lay the points, play on ALABAMA.

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