Friday 9-14-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369837

    #31
    Friday's Diamond Notes
    Kevin Rogers

    Hottest team: Brewers (11-3 last 14)

    Milwaukee is coming off an important road series win at Chicago by taking two of three against the Cubs. The Brewers pulled to within one game of first place on Wednesday, but dropped a half-game on Thursday as the Cubs knocked off the Nationals in extra innings of a make-up contest in D.C. Milwaukee has captured seven consecutive series victories, while the series opener six times in this stretch.

    The Brew Crew returns to Miller Park this weekend as Milwaukee welcomes in Pittsburgh. The Brewers grabbed two of three from the Pirates last month at home as southpaw Gio Gonzalez makes his second start for Milwaukee since getting traded from Washington earlier this month. Gonzalez beat the Giants in his Milwaukee debut by allowing one run and three hits in 5.2 innings of a 4-3 victory. Gonzalez lost to Pittsburgh earlier this season as a member of the Nationals in a 2-0 defeat in spite of tossing six innings and scattering six hits.

    Coldest team: Phillies (2-9 last 11)

    San Francisco currently has the longest losing streak in baseball at 11, but since the Giants are out of the playoff race, we’ll focus on the Phillies. There hasn’t been much fight in Philadelphia lately as the Phillies have slipped out of first place in the NL East and are six games out of a Wild Card spot with two weeks remaining. The Phillies have stunk at home during this stretch by losing nine of their past 11 at Citizens Bank Park, including getting swept by the Nationals this week.

    Philadelphia will try to get its act together tonight as Miami invades the City of Brotherly Love. The Marlins have dropped five of six games on its current road trip that started in Pittsburgh and New York. Zack Eflin tries to stop the bleeding for the Phillies as the right-hander is winless in his last four starts, but beat the Marlins at home last month by tossing eight innings in an 8-3 rout.

    Hottest pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees (11-5, 3.61 ERA)

    New York went from undoubtedly hosting a Wild Card game to now maybe traveling to the Oakland Coliseum for its do-or-die game in October. The Yankees and Athletics are on a collision course to meet in the Wild Card game, but New York owns a 1 ½-game edge heading into tonight’s action. Tanaka has been outstanding of late by allowing one run in his last two starts, while striking out 10 in eight scoreless innings of a 4-0 shutout of Seattle his last time out. The Yankees host the Blue Jays as heavy home favorites tonight as Tanaka is 3-1 in his past four starts against Toronto, including a victory in the opening series of the season.

    Coldest pitcher: Tyler Anderson, Rockies (6-8, 4.89 ERA)

    Colorado still sits atop the NL West following a series victory over Arizona as the Rockies hope to not get tripped up tonight in San Francisco. Anderson has not been reliable of late as the southpaw hasn’t won since July 4 against the Giants when he strung together eight innings of two-hit ball. The Rockies are 1-8 in his last nine trips to the mound, while allowing 25 earned runs in his past five starts. Colorado won seven of Anderson’s first 10 road starts of the season, but the Rockies are 0-3 in his past three outings away from Coors Field.

    Biggest OVER run: Athletics (9-3 last 12)

    Oakland remains on the east coast after failing to pull off a sweep of Baltimore. The A’s travel to Tampa Bay to square off with a red-hot Rays’ squad that has won 13 of its past 14 games at Tropicana Field. Oakland’s six-game winning streak came to a halt on Thursday as the A’s were limited to less than six runs for the third time in 12 games. Edwin Jackson gets the start against his former team tonight as the A’s have hit the OVER in each of his past two outings. However, the A’s are 4-0-2 to the UNDER in his six road starts this season.

    Biggest UNDER run: Angels (8-3 last 11)

    The Angels’ offense has dried up of late by scoring two runs or fewer in four of the last five games, while splitting the first four games on their homestand. The Mariners limited the Angels to two runs in last night’s 8-2 blowout, while ending Los Angeles’ four-game UNDER streak. The Angels have won each of Matt Shoemaker’s last two starts since getting activated off the disabled list, while the right-hander makes his first home start of the season. Four of Shoemaker’s past six starts against the Mariners have cashed the OVER since 2016, including two OVERS last season.

    Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Astros

    Houston is seeking consecutive World Series titles as the Astros on the doorstep of clinching a playoff spot. The Astros are rolling of late by winning nine of their past 10 games, including pulling off a three-game road sweep of the Tigers with all three victories coming by one run apiece. Houston welcomes in Arizona for a key interleague set as the D-backs took two of three from the Astros at Chase Field in May.

    Arizona has slid backwards of late after dropping three of four at home to Atlanta, followed by losing three of four games at Colorado to slip 4 ½ games back of the Rockies in the NL West race. Robbie Ray tries to turn around the Snakes’ luck tonight as the D-backs are 3-7 in the southpaw’s 10 starts since the All-Star break. Arizona is unbeaten in Ray’s last two road starts against the Dodgers and Padres, while the team is 6-4 in his 10 away assignments.

    Dallas Keuchel counters for Houston, as the former Cy Young winner was tagged for five runs in six innings of a 6-5 defeat at Boston last Sunday. Keuchel has endured an up and down season following a 14-5 campaign in 2017 as the Astros have lost seven of his past 12 starts at Minute Maid Park. Since dropping nine consecutive home games in July and August, the Astros have regained their home-field advantage by winning eight of their last 11 home contests.

    Betcha didn’t know:
    The Braves are creeping closer to their first NL East title since 2013 following a successful road trip at Arizona and San Francisco. However, home is not where the heart is for Atlanta, who owns a 3-10 record in the past 13 games at SunTrust Park as the Braves welcome in the Nationals tonight. Oh by the way, Cy Young front-runner Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Nationals, but Washington has split his four starts against Atlanta this season.

    Biggest pubic favorite:
    Yankees (-280) vs. Blue Jays

    Biggest public underdog:
    Cardinals (+112) vs. Dodgers

    Biggest line move:
    Astros (-170 to -190) vs. Diamondbacks
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369837

      #32
      Diamond Trends - Friday
      Vince Akins

      SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

      -- The Yankees are 18-0 SU during the regular season at home off a road loss in which they never led.

      SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

      -- The Tigers are 0-17 SU in the first game of a series with rest as a 135-plus dog after a game in which they hit more home runs than their opponent.

      Hitter-Based Trend of the Day:

      -- The Indians are 21-0 SU as a 130-plus favorite off a game as a favorite in which Jose Ramirez struck out at least twice.

      Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

      -- The Astros are 10-0 SU as a favorite of more than 120 with Dallas Keuchel when they lost in his last start.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369837

        #33
        NCAAF
        Long Sheet


        Friday, September 14

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        GEORGIA ST (1 - 1) at MEMPHIS (1 - 1) - 9/14/2018, 7:00 PM
        Top Trends for this game.
        GEORGIA ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
        GEORGIA ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
        GEORGIA ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369837

          #34
          NCAAF

          Week 3


          Trend Report

          Friday, September 14

          Georgia State @ Memphis
          Georgia State
          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 12 games on the road
          Georgia State is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games on the road

          Memphis
          Memphis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
          Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369837

            #35
            Tech Trends - Week 3
            Bruce Marshall

            Friday, Sept. 14

            GEORGIA STATE at MEMPHIS
            ...GSU 20-7 as road dog since 2012 (though just 1-2 since LY). Tigers just 8-10 as Liberty Bowl chalk since 2015, though have covered 6 of last 8 laying DD.
            Slight to GSU, based on team trends.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369837

              #36
              NCAAF
              Dunkel

              Week 3


              Friday, September 14

              Georgia State @ Memphis

              Game 105-106
              September 14, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

              Dunkel Rating:
              Georgia State
              69.535
              Memphis
              94.221
              Dunkel Team:
              Dunkel Line:
              Dunkel Total:
              Memphis
              by 24 1/2
              63
              Vegas Team:
              Vegas Line:
              Vegas Total:
              Memphis
              by 27 1/2
              58 1/2
              Dunkel Pick:
              Georgia State
              (+27 1/2); Over

              Brown @ Cal Poly


              Game 801-802
              September 14, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

              Dunkel Rating:
              Brown
              34.622
              Cal Poly
              53.968
              Dunkel Team:
              Dunkel Line:
              Dunkel Total:
              Cal Poly
              by 19 1/2
              41
              Vegas Team:
              Vegas Line:
              Vegas Total:
              Cal Poly
              by 17
              45
              Dunkel Pick:
              Cal Poly
              (-17); Under
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369837

                #37
                NCAAF

                Week 3


                Friday’s game
                Last week, Memphis lost conference game as a road favorite at Navy; Tigers turned ball over four times (-3)- they outgained Middies by 62 yards. Under Norvell, Memphis is 5-7 as home favorites. Georgia State is 1-3 vs spread last four times they got 20+ points, after a 10-0 run in such games. Panthers lost 41-7 at NC State LW, giving up 426 PY. Last three years, AAC teams are 6-4 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369837

                  #38
                  CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
                  David Schwab

                  There were quite a few twists and turns in Week 13 with the results having an impact on the playoff race in each division. British Columbia got things started by picking up a key win in the West with Friday night’s 26-14 victory over Ottawa as a slight 1 ½-point home favorite.

                  In the first of three games on Saturday, Hamilton closed the gap in the East by beating Toronto 36-25 as a five-point favorite on the road. Saskatchewan continued its winning ways by knocking off Winnipeg 32-27 as a four-point road underdog and Edmonton evened up its home-and-home series against Calgary with a 48-42 upset as a two-point underdog at home.

                  Friday, Sept. 14

                  British Columbia Lions (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS)

                  Point-spread: BC -3
                  Total: 49

                  Game Overview

                  BC continues to bring up the rear in the West, but with last week’s win it is still in contention for a crossover position in the playoffs. The Lions have covered against the spread in five of their last seven games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in six of those seven contests. One injury note for this Friday is quarterback Travis Lulay, who remains in concussion protocol.

                  Montreal is coming off a bye after stunning Ottawa 21-11 in Week 12 as a heavy 16-point road underdog. This was the Alouettes second straight-up win in a row and they have now covered in their last four games. Earlier in the season, Montreal traded for quarterback Johnny Manziel, but it may have found its new starter in Antonio Pipkin. He has completed 64.3 percent of his 84 passing attempts for 762 yards through three previous starts.

                  Betting Trends

                  -- The Lions have won their last five games against the Alouettes both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in seven of the last 10 meetings in Montreal. BC started this season with a 22-10 victory against Montreal as an 8 ½-point favorite at home.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369837

                    #39
                    CFL
                    Long Sheet

                    Week 14


                    Friday, September 14

                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 6) at MONTREAL (3 - 8) - 9/14/2018, 7:30 PM
                    Top Trends for this game.
                    MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
                    MONTREAL is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
                    MONTREAL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

                    Head-to-Head Series History
                    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
                    BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
                    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369837

                      #40
                      CFL

                      Week 14


                      Trend Report

                      Friday, September 14

                      British Columbia Lions
                      British Columbia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
                      British Columbia is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
                      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
                      British Columbia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
                      British Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
                      The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games on the road
                      British Columbia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
                      British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
                      British Columbia is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Montreal
                      British Columbia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Montreal
                      The total has gone OVER in 7 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Montreal

                      Montreal Alouettes

                      Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
                      Montreal is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games
                      Montreal is 3-19 SU in its last 22 games
                      The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 13 games
                      Montreal is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
                      Montreal is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
                      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games at home
                      Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
                      Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
                      Montreal is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against British Columbia
                      Montreal is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against British Columbia
                      The total has gone OVER in 7 of Montreal's last 10 games when playing at home against British Columbia
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369837

                        #41
                        CFL

                        Dunkel

                        Week 14


                        Friday, September 14

                        BC Lions @ Montreal

                        Game 659-660
                        September 14, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

                        Dunkel Rating:
                        BC Lions
                        112.846
                        Montreal
                        105.326
                        Dunkel Team:
                        Dunkel Line:
                        Dunkel Total:
                        BC Lions
                        by 7 1/2
                        53
                        Vegas Team:
                        Vegas Line:
                        Vegas Total:
                        BC Lions
                        by 3
                        49
                        Dunkel Pick:
                        BC Lions
                        (-3); Over
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369837

                          #42
                          CFL

                          Week 14


                          BC Lions (4-6) (-3, 48.5) @ Montreal (3-8)— Alouettes won last two games, covered last four; they’re 1-4 SU/ATS at home, upsetting Toronto in last home game. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. BC is 0-5 SU on road, 0-1 as road favorites; under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Lions are 1-3 in game decided by less than a TD- they won/covered last six series games, winning last three visits here, by 7-20-9 points. Under is 3-2 in BC’s last five visits here. Lions won first meeting 22-10 in season opener, outscoring Montreal 15-0 over last three quarters.
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369837

                            #43
                            Sal Michaels

                            Sep 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 3h
                            NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Memphis
                            Play on: Georgia State +28½ -105 at MyBookie

                            Free Play on Georgia State +28½ -105
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369837

                              #44
                              Jimmy Boyd

                              Sep 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 3h
                              NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Memphis
                              Play on: Georgia State +29 -110 at Bovada

                              1* Free Pick on Georgia State Panthers +29
                              I think we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. Even though Memphis is coming off an outright loss at Navy as a favorite, the public will want nothing to do with this Georgia State squad. The Panthers are coming off a 41-7 blowout loss to NC State, a team a lot of people are down on this year after all they lost on the defensive side of the ball.
                              That game was a lot closer than the final score would lead you to believe. The Panthers were only trailing 7-20 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Georgia State missed two field goals and failed twice on 4th down inside NC State territory. The Wolfpack also scored a couple garbage touchdowns in the final minutes of regulation to really make the score lopsided.
                              You also have to keep in mind that NC State has a big time talent at quarterback in Ryan Finley. Memphis had to replace one of their all-time greats this season in Riley Ferguson. Arizona State transfer, Brady White, was great against an inferior Mercer team in the opener, but went just 15 of 25 for a mere 145 with a 0-1 TD-INT ratio against Memphis.
                              However, the biggest key here to Georgia State keeping this within the number is they got a capable offense. With Memphis possibility dragging their heads from that crushing loss to the Midshipmen, I could easily see them not giving this Panthers team the respect they deserve.
                              Georgia State is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games, including a 14-4 ATS mark on the road in the first half of the season. Take Georgia St!
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369837

                                #45
                                Ryan Worden

                                Sep 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 3h
                                NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Memphis
                                Play on: Memphis -28 -105 at 5Dimes

                                Memphis has to be feeling sick they aren't 2-0 after controlling the game against Navy last week for 3 quarters before melting down in the 4th. The Tigers are still a good football team with a lot of weapons, an experienced offensive line and Junior QB Brady White has played very well, putting to ease any fears of this team having a hole at QB. The Memphis defense is very good as well and despite losing the game to Navy, the defense held the Midshipmen to only 316 yards of total offense.
                                Playing Georgia St at home is just what the Tigers need to get back on track. The Panthers lost a lot of players from the 2017 team who recorded the first winning season in program history. It showed as they needed a last second touchdown week 1 to beat FCS school Kennesaw St at home followed by a blowout loss at NC State. Memphis will take their anger from the Navy loss out on the young Panthers. Lay The Points and Take Memphis.
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