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four 2 unit plays included (his highest rated plays)
Indianapolis Colts (461) @ Philadelphia Eagles (462)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Indianapolis +7.5 (-130) at 5dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.77 units
The Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles have come out not looking like the team they were at the end of last season. the defensive front has done very well, the the Eagles have been getting torched in the air to the tune of 618 yards and more importantly 8.1 yards per attempt. The opponents QB rating sits at 95.18. The Colts offense was expected to be infused by the return of Andrew Luck. he has generated 241 yards a game in the air, but being on the field longer has helped the defense that through 2 weeks ranks #10 in tards allowed. This line looks like what it would have been last year, but Indy has played above that and the Eagles have been below. Indy has yet to allow better than 330 total yards, while the Eagles gave up 393 in the air alone last week. Looks like to many points here, make the play on Indianapolis.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Cincinnati Bengals (463) @ Carolina Panthers (464)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Cincinnati +3 (-105) at TopBet - risk 1.5 units to return 2.93 units
It appeared that after missing the playoffs last year Marvin Lewis would be gone, but they had faith in him and he returned for 2018. The Bengals have a core of players that have been around for awhile in Andy Dalton and A. J. Green, and not a lot of changes have been made. So far it all looks good, as the Bengals are off a pair of 34-23 wins to start 2-0 on the season. They have given up 300+ yards in the air in both games, but that is more a product of getting ahead and forcing their opponent to throw, as opponents have thrown over 100 times in two games. Carolina held a poor Dallas offense to just eight points in a Week 1 win, but gave up 31 to Atlanta the next week. The Panthers took some gambles, and have a lot of aging veterans expected to make impacts. Carolina is allowing nearly five yards per carry on the ground, and 7.2 yards per attempt in the air, and Dalton and Co. are hot right now. Play Cincinnati.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
New Orleans Saints (467) @ Atlanta Falcons (468)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
New Orleans +3 (-105) at 5dimes - risk 2 units to return 3.9 units
UNDER 53.5 (-105) at 5dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.95 units
Atlanta won the first meeting last season 20-17 and the Saints avenged the loss with a 23-13 win a couple weeks later and both games easily went UNDER. Both teams are 1-1 this year with the Saints ekeing out a 21-18 win over Cleveland in a game that stayed UNDER by 12 points. Wil Lutz kicked a 44-yard field goal with 21 seconds left and the Saints took advantage of several missed kicks by the Browns to pull out the win. Drew Brees completed a 42-yard pass to Ted Ginn Jr. to set up the kick. New Orleans won't take this week's game lightly as the Falcons rebounded from a tough loss at Philadelphia to defeat Carolina 31-24. Matt Ryan actually ran for two touchdowns and finished 23-for-28 for 272 yards. Brees was 28-for-35 for 243 yards and Michael Thomas had 12 catches for 89 yards and two TDs. The underdog has covered the spread seven of the last nine meetings and the UNDER is 7-3-1 the last 11 meetings. The Saints are 14-5 ATS their last 19 road games and the Falcons are 1-4 ATS their last five following a win dating to last season. The Falcons have gone UNDER eight of their last nine games, including the last seven games of the 2017 regular season and playoffs. Take the Saints and UNDER.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Denver Broncos (469) @ Baltimore Ravens (470)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Denver +5.5 (-105) at 5Dimes - risk 1.5 units to return 2.93 units
The Baltimore Ravens ambushed the defenseless Buffalo Bills in their opener, but the took on Cincinnati and gave up 34 points, and turned the ball over. The inability to run the ball left the ball in Joe Flacco's hands as he threw 55 passes. The result was three turnovers by the Ravens, and if they don't get their running game going it will be a long season. Denver is 2-0 and Case Keenum so far has improved the offense significantly, and he is now 15-4 since the start of last season. Joe Flacco has been tailing off for several years now, and doesn't look much better unless the opponent is Buffalo this year. Without a running game, this team is not a big threat. Denver's QB woes killed the season last year, but appear to be in good hands now. Take the points on Denver.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
New York Giants (471) @ Houston Texans (472)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
New York +7 (-125) at 5Dimes - risk 2 units to return 3.6 units
The New York Giants suffered so many injuries to their offensive weapons last year, there were just no players that were game breakers in the skill positions for most of the season. They finally got Odell Beckham Jr. resigned, Sterling Shepard is back, and they drafted Saquon Barkley out of Penn State, and on paper the offense looks formidable. They have not been able to put it together yet. Houston is also 0-2, and Deshaun Watson doesn't appear to have that same quickness, and doesn't look 100% healthy yet. The Giants expect so much more of themselves, and at 0-2 and sitting alone at the bottom of the NFC East they will bring a lot of energy to this one. The line here looks very inflated, and I think this one comes down to the last possession, so I will ride with New York.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Oakland Raiders (473) @ Miami Dolphins (474)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Oakland +3 (+115) at 5Dimes - risk 2 units to return 4.3 units
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Green Bay Packers (475) @ Washington Redskins (476)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Washington +3 (-115) at TopBet - risk 1.5 units to return 2.8 units
OVER 45 (-105) at 5Dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.95 units
It's only two games into the season, but Green Bay is already in a tough scheduling spot after two games that went down to the wire, including an overtime tie last week against Minnesota. Now the Packers have to go on the road to play Washington, which will be focused for this one after losing to the Colts last week. Alex Smith finished 33-for-46 despite some drops by his receivers and the offensive line needs improvement. Green Bay's first two games have gone OVER and Aaron Rodgers played with a knee brace while throwing for 281 yards on 30-for-42 against the Vikings. Rodgers is officially listed as day-to-day, but is expected to play this week. The Packers are 14-3 OVER their last 17 games after recording at least 350 total offense yards their previous game. The Redskins have covered five of their last six games after a loss dating to last season and they are 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss. Green Bay is 36-17 OVER its last 53 road contests and 24-7 OVER its last 31 games overall. The teams last met in 2016 and the Redskins won 42-24 on the road. Go with the Redskins and the OVER.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Buffalo Bills (477) @ Minnesota Vikings (478)
Sunday 09/23 1:00 PM Eastern
Buffalo +17 (-115) at 5Dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.87 units
OVER 40.5 (-105) at 5Dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.95 units
Buffalo is getting raked over the coals in the media, with many proclaiming this the worst team in the NFL. 0-16? Hold on here, it's only Week 3 and this point spread is through the roof. They scored 20 points last week against the Chargers as this young team improved in the second half. Buffalo's pass rush woke up as QB Philip Rivers was hurried significantly more over the final two quarters. Trent Murphy, Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes all got in the offensive backfield to harass Rivers, with Alexander and Hughes registering sacks. Hughes also had three quarterback hits. The Bills are 53-29 ATS after two or more consecutive spread losses. The secondary is the biggest concern this week, with Vontae Davis' abrupt retirement and Phillip Gaines elbow injury that kept him out of the second half. Buffalo's cornerback contingent is suddenly thin so look for Minnesota to attack them deep downfield. Buffalo is 16-7 OVER the total when following a straight-up loss, plus 11-5 OVER after a spread loss. Minnesota is a huge favorite but hasn't been dominant, off a tie with rival Green Bay and a close win over San Francisco. They have a tough two-game road trip on deck, at the Rams and defending champion Eagles. The Vikings are 95-67 OVER when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, so back the huge dog in an offensive show. Play Buffalo and the OVER.
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Los Angeles Chargers (481) @ Los Angeles Rams (482)
Sunday 09/23 4:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles +7.5 (-125) at 5Dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.8 units
The Los Angeles Chargers got their first win in a 31-20 victory at Buffalo as Melvin Gordon scored three touchdowns, one rushing and two pass receptions.QB Philip Rivers was 23-for-27 passing for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Gordon is expected to play this week after enduring a minor upper-body injury. The Chargers now are 15-7-1 ATS their last 23 road games and the Rams are 5-11-1 ATS their last 17 home contests. Also, the Rams are 1-6 ATS the last seven years in Week 3. The Chargers got 77 yards on 11 carries from Austin Ekeler and receiver Mike Williams caught three passes for 48 yards while Keenan Allen had six receptions for 67 yards. The emerging young talent on offense is a good sign for the Chargers and the defense held the Bills to 293 total yards. The Rams shut out the weak Arizona Cardinals 34-0 as Todd Gurley ran for three touchdowns and Jared Goff threw for 354 yards. The Chargers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to keep this one close and they looked much improved from their season-opening game against Kansas City. Grab the points with the Chargers.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Chicago Bears (483) @ Arizona Cardinals (484)
Sunday 09/23 4:25 PM Eastern
Arizona +6 (-105) at TopBet - risk 2 units to return 3.9 units
OVER 38.5 (-105) at 5Dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.95 units
Chicago is winless on the road and takes a long trip to Arizona. They also have a short week, coming off a Monday night game against Seattle. The Bears are 3-8 ATS when following a straight-up win, as well as 6-16-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. 24-year-old quarterback Mitch Trubisky still has a long ways to go, tossing a pair of interceptions, and failing to connect on deep balls with several open receivers and was often too eager to bolt from the pocket. Yet, here they are a good-sized road favorite. The Bears are also 17-4 OVER the total when following a Monday night appearance, as well as 95-68 OVER as a favorite. Arizona ran into the overpowering Rams defense last week, but face a Chicago defense that is #18 in passing yards allowed. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game, plus 43-22 ATS at home after two or more straight losses. Unlike recent years, they have a reliable veteran QB in Sam Bradford, who has thrown more TDs than picks. They've simplified the offense for this week, too. The Cardinals are 40-16 OVER the total after gaining less than 250 total yards the previous contest, as well as 35-16 OVER after getting less than 150 yards passing the previous game. NFL teams scoring nine or fewer points in two straight games are 37-11 ATS that next game. Playing their second home game in three weeks, back the home dog in a game featuring more scoring than oddsmakers expect. Play Arizona and take OVER.
Bet this game at Diamond Sports
Dallas Cowboys (485) @ Seattle Seahawks (486)
Sunday 09/23 4:25 PM Eastern
Seattle -1 (-110) at Bookmaker - risk 1 unit to return 1.91 units
The Seattle Seahawks have lost a lot of players from their Super Bowl winning team, and they don't look nearly as good as they have in the past under Pete Carroll. They still have Russell Wilson at QB, who played an awful game vs. Chicago on the road on Monday Night, and I expect him to be a lot sharper and focused here at home vs. Dallas in a must win game. Dallas got a much-needed win Sunday Night at home vs. the Giants, and come in at 1-1, but all is not well in Dallas either. The Cowboys have scored all of 28 points through two weeks. QB Dak prescott seems to lack the receiving corps, and is throwing for just 5.5 yards per attempt on the season. Russell Wilson doesn't lose very often at home where he is 34-9 SU, and with his Seahawks at 0-2, this is a must win and he failed them with a pick-6 and fumble in the fourth quarter last game vs. the Bears. Wilson rises to the occasion, so play on Seattle.
DWAYNE BRYANT
SUNDAY, September 23, 2018
MLB -- 2:10 PM ET
[979] Chicago Cubs at [980] Chicago White Sox
List Hendricks & Rodon
PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (-120)
BET SIZE: 4%
My baseball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Runs Scored = 6
Kyle Hendricks owns a stellar 1.63 ERA over his last six starts, never allowing more than two runs during this stretch.
Carlos Rodon has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four starts, yet the Under was 3-0-1 in those games. Rodon owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at Guaranteed Rate Field this season, so I like his chances to bounce back today.
The Cubs bullpen is solid, and the White Sox pen has been much better at home than on the road.
We also get Doug Eddings behind the plate, and Eddings shows one of the strongest Under biases of all MLB umpires.
DBpicks
NFL Play for Sunday 9-23-2018
#483 Chicago Bears at #484 Arizona Cardinals -- 4:25 PM ET
THE PLAY: 1% on #484 ARIZONA CARDINALS +6 (-110)
Like in the stock market, in the sports betting market we are supposed to buy low and sell high. Said another way, we are supposed to bet on undervalued teams and bet against overvalued teams. One undervalued team through two games is these Cardinals.
Arizona has gotten blown out at home 24-6 by the Redskins and 34-0 in LA against the Rams. They catch the Bears at a good time, as Chicago just beat Seattle at home on Monday night. So, it's a short week and travel for the Bears, plus they could be a bit flat off that win over the Seahawks.
Yes, the Bears looked good in Week 1 against the Packers at Lambeau Field. But the Bears began planning for that game as soon as the schedule was announced, and they had a new look under first-year head coach Matt Nagy. And yes, the Bears did beat Seattle on Monday night. But that was at home against a Seahawks team with key injuries on both sides of the ball.
That Seattle win combined with the scores from the first two Arizona games could very well have the Bears taking this game a bit lightly. But the Cardinals should be plenty motivated after getting embarrassed twice to start the season.
Asking the Bears to basically win by a TD on the road (where they are 2-15 SU since the start of the 2016 season) just seems like a little too much to ask. I'm grabbing the points with the undervalued Cardinals at home.
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