Thursday 9-27-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Preview and Predictions 09-27-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 25th September 2018 by Gracenote
Vikings vs. Rams Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 09/25/2018

The Los Angeles Rams' high-octane offense has been a constant this season, but the formidable defense could take a hit with the potential absences of two key cornerbacks. With Aqib Talib (ankle) and Marcus Peters (calf) likely sidelined, the Rams will aim to keep Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings in check on Thursday when they bid for their first 4-0 mark to begin a season since 2001.

"We don't know how long those guys will be out. It's temporary adversity," said Los Angeles coach Sean McVay, who is expected to lean on cornerbacks Nickell Robey-Coleman, Sam Shields and Troy Hill with Minnesota wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs coming to the Coliseum. The Rams, in turn, have several explosive weapons on their third-ranked offense (493.3 yards per game), with Jared Goff liberally feeding the trio of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp to keep the opposition from focusing solely on multi-dimensional running back Todd Gurley. Goff's 941 passing yards rank fifth in the NFL, one spot behind Cousins (965) as the latter has found instant chemistry with Thielen. The 28-year-old wideout reeled in a career-high 14 receptions in Sunday's 27-6 upset loss to Buffalo to increase his total to 32, which is the third-most in league history through the first three games of the season.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Rams -6.5. O/U: 49.5

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-1-1): Coach Mike Zimmer said on Tuesday that there is a "possibility" that second-year dual-threat Dalvin Cook (hamstring) will face the Rams' top-ranked scoring defense (12.0 points) and sixth-ranked defense overall (296.0 yards allowed). Fellow running back Latavius Murray has struggled to get untracked this season after a strong finish to 2017, mustering just one yard on two carries versus the Bills last week and 62 total on 17 attempts in 2018. While there's doubt involving Cook, Zimmer erased any lingering thoughts about the availability of star defensive end Everson Griffen -- who has been ruled out for the second straight game as he battles a serious mental-health related issue. "The only thing really that we're concerned about for Everson isn't anything to do with football, it's about him getting better," Zimmer told reporters Tuesday.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-0): Gurley isn't a fan of Thursday Night Football -- "it's probably the dumbest thing ever," he said earlier this week -- but the star running back certainly enjoyed the last time he competed on that day. Gurley found the end zone on three occasions in the first half of Los Angeles' 41-39 triumph over San Francisco on Sept. 21, 2017. The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year picked up where he left off by finding the end zone for the fifth time (four rushing, one receiving) this season in the Rams' 35-23 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Goff tossed three touchdown passes last week, with Woods grabbing two to go along with a career-high 10 catches for 104 yards.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter has collected one sack in each game to start the season.

2. Cooks ranks fifth in the NFL with 336 yards receiving, while Woods (222, 20th) is also ranked in the NFL's top 20.

3. Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph, who found the end zone last week, has four touchdowns in his last five road games.

PREDICTION: Rams 31, Vikings 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes Preview and Predictions

NCAAF Previews 25th September 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 09/25/2018

It's a short week for North Carolina and Miami as they meet in front of a national audience on Thursday night in South Florida. Both teams come off victories, with the Hurricanes moving up to No. 16 after their 31-17 triumph over Florida International, while the Tar Heels earned their first victory of the season, outlasting Pittsburgh 38-35 in the school's ACC and home opener.

The question of the week in Miami is who will open at quarterback after redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry replaced embattled senior Malik Rosier Saturday for the third series in a planned move, according to head coach Mark Richt. Rosier, last year's starter who got off to a rocky beginning this season, never got back in and Perry went on to hit 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns in his first extended action to spark a Hurricanes offense that has been inconsistent with Rosier at the helm. "I'm going to continue to watch practice and let everybody know when it's time for them to know," Richt told reporters. "But I'm not telling what's happening." The Tar Heels may have a quarterback quandary of their own with sophomore Chazz Surratt one of seven players returning from a three-game suspension, but head coach Larry Fedora indicated that junior Nathan Elliott will get the nod after his impressive 313-yard, two-touchdown outing against Pittsburgh.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Miami -18.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (1-2, 1-0 ACC): Surratt led the Tar Heels with 1,342 yards passing and 13 touchdowns (eight passing, five rushing) in nine games last season (seven starts) and his return will give Fedora a solid option should Elliott struggle as he did the first two weeks. The offensive line has surrendered just one sack in three games and the unit owned the line of scrimmage against Pittsburgh, playing a major role in the success of Elliott and a ground attack that pounded out a season-high 173 yards, led by Antonio Williams' 114 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, North Carolina outgained Miami 428-415 in a 24-19 loss but Surratt was injured in the first quarter and Elliott came in and threw three interceptions against the Canes' opportunistic defense.

ABOUT MIAMI (3-1, 0-0): Rosier has had his moments as the Hurricanes' starter since the start of the 2017 season but he is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes this year and 54 percent last year, while Perry is showing far greater accuracy (66.7 percent), a big reason why a switch to the younger, more dynamic Perry appears imminent. True freshman tight end Brevin Jordan is becoming a more integral part of the attack and he is tied for second on the team in receptions (12) and touchdowns (three), with 11 of his catches coming with Perry at quarterback. The Tar Heels' ground game will be challenged by a Miami run defense giving up just 78.8 yards per game, fourth best in the nation, with Gerald Willis III tied for tops in the country in tackles for loss (10) and Jonathan Garvin ranked sixth (8.5).

EXTRA POINTS
1. North Carolina won the last meeting in Miami in 2016, which was also the last time the Hurricanes lost a regular-season game at home (11 straight wins since).

2. The Hurricanes are opening their ACC slate at home for the first time since the 2013 season.

3. This will be North Carolina's 18th Thursday night ESPN football game in school history and they are 9-8, with wins in three of the last five appearances.

PREDICTION: Miami 34, North Carolina 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
Belterra Park - Race 1

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)


Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 1:20P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ARCHUSEXY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ARCHUSEXY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. AWESOME MUSIC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
ARCHUSEXY
4/1

7/2
2
AWESOME MUSIC
5/2

5/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
AWESOME MUSIC
2

5/2
Front-runner
73

75

78.0

72.0

65.0
4
OLDFASHIONED ANGEL
4

12/1
Front-runner
67

60

74.2

54.4

43.4
1
LA JOLLA D'ORO
1

10/1
Front-runner
74

65

64.7

61.2

49.2
7
ARCHUSEXY
7

4/1
Alternator/Front-runner
84

79

85.4

73.6

71.1
6
SISTER JIB
6

3/1
Stalker
79

79

48.2

71.8

64.3
3
DR WINN KYI
3

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
83

77

41.2

66.2

60.2
5
OLYMPIC SMOKE
5

7/2
Alternator/Non-contender
75

59

65.8

66.8

57.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

09/27/18, CD, Race 5, 6.56 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.33.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) - Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 37.50, $1 ROI 1.07, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 5 Laser Ladee 10-1 Saez G Sharp Joe T
099.5424 8 Gator Vindication 5/2 Lanerie C J Foley Vickie L. WL
097.3146 6 First to Dance 5-1 Geroux F Colebrook Ben J
097.0284 1 Delachaise 6-1 Graham J Flint Bernard S. SFC
096.5007 2 Rings a Bell 15-1 McMahon C Tomlinson Michael A.
096.2990 11 Fiery Blake 3-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J McPeek Kenneth G.
096.2603 1A Runway Starlet 6-1 Graham J Flint Bernard S.
095.8999 10 Oxbowindy 15-1 Castanon J L Castanon Jose G.
094.9204 3 Gloria Jean 20-1 Villasana C Stephen Anthony E
094.7064 7 Forever Shining(b+) 12-1 Cannon D Glover Tracey
094.5617 9 Urban Kat 15-1 Gilligan J Hubley Mark
094.3399 4 Tiz Dreaming 15-1 Morales E Bradley William B.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 JOURNEYONTHEMOVE (ML=3/1)
#1 TIMUQUANA PLACE (ML=8/1)
#7 LOST ON THE STAIRS (ML=6/1)


JOURNEYONTHEMOVE - We have lots of early speed with this steed. She could wire this field. I do like the fact this mare is back in a race so quickly. Don't throw out based on last race finish. She didn't hit the board, but made a nice move down the homestretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. TIMUQUANA PLACE - Although it's been awhile, this filly last won at this same class and distance. I think she could run back to that old form today. LOST ON THE STAIRS - I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last prep was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SIMPLY GREAT (ML=2/1), #3 SLEWZER (ML=4/1), #6 BLUE HEN MADNESS (ML=6/1),

SIMPLY GREAT - The effort last time out on Sep 9th probably won't hold up against stiffer competition when they turn for home. Not likely that the speed rating she notched on September 9th will be good enough in this event. SLEWZER - In the last race this pony finished third. Doesn't look good for her chances in today's event. BLUE HEN MADNESS - A bit of a lackluster outing when this mare finished fourth.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 JOURNEYONTHEMOVE on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.2f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 27, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2017 - 2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 TOASTY BOY 5/2

# 4 SMART THINKING 2/1

# 5 BALDONNEL 6/1

My selection in this race is TOASTY BOY. Looks solid to be on the front end at the first call. When a trainer brings any equine back this soon it is a positive signal. Is a solid choice - given the 80 speed figure from his most recent race. SMART THINKING - Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the midpoint of the contest. This one has been consistently running well lately. BALDONNEL - Could beat this field given the 75 Equibase Speed Figure recorded in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #5 - Post: 3:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 MISSALMA (ML=5/1)
#6 JICAMA (ML=2/1)


MISSALMA - The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Taylor. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a sharp effort in the last race within the last month or so. JICAMA - Martinez comes to get aboard after getting to know the mare in the last race. Ran last out against better company at Golden Gate Fields. The move down the ladder based on class should suit her well. This mare earned a nice speed rating of 75 in her last affair. That speed rating should be strong enough to win this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOT N BREEZY (ML=5/2), #7 LILY BE GOOD (ML=3/1),

HOT N BREEZY - A bit of a lackluster effort when this filly finished fourth. LILY BE GOOD - This less than sharp equine didn't do too much last out finishing fifth. Don't see any hint of improvement in today's event. This filly garnered a speed rating in her last contest which probably isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #2 MISSALMA on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

09/27/18, GP, Race 1, 2.00 ET
5F [Turf] 00.53.03 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $24,000.
Claiming Price $12,500 (Races where entered for $8,000 or less not considered in allowances). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2017-2018 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Top Horse Win Percent 24.10, $1 ROI 0.89, For Race Category Non-Maiden Turf
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 7 Treatherlikestar 20-1 Jaramillo E Delgado Gustavo W
099.3550 5 Fallen Leaf 2-1 Lopez P Baxter Georgina JTL
098.7572 1 Sum Roar 9/2 Sanchez J Abreu Fernando S
097.2471 8 Awesomendensome 10-1 Vasquez M A Antonucci Jena M.
096.6541 2 Cordele 3-1 Alvarado. Jr. R Levy Tamara L. C
094.8928 6 Taylor's in Orbit 6-1 Panici L Bush George S. FE
093.7075 3 Linda Nin 12-1 Maragh R R Abreu Fernando
092.8230 4 Lady Greatness 10-1 Carmona K Rakoff David
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse Win Percent 31.21, $1 ROI 0.86, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 5 Fallen Leaf 2-1 Lopez P Baxter Georgina JTFL
097.6365 1 Sum Roar 9/2 Sanchez J Abreu Fernando SW
096.7535 2 Cordele 3-1 Alvarado. Jr. R Levy Tamara L. C
096.1419 7 Treatherlikestar 20-1 Jaramillo E Delgado Gustavo
095.8567 6 Taylor's in Orbit 6-1 Panici L Bush George S. E
095.5285 8 Awesomendensome 10-1 Vasquez M A Antonucci Jena M.
095.4371 4 Lady Greatness 10-1 Carmona K Rakoff David
092.4855 3 Linda Nin 12-1 Maragh R R Abreu Fernando

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs
Presque Isle Downs - Race 7

$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double


Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 7:55P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. DRAGON FIVE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CREATIVE STORY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highe st average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. DRAGON FIVE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
1
CREATIVE STORY
5/2

7/2
5
DRAGON FIVE
4/1

7/2




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
CREATIVE STORY
1

5/2
Front-runner
80

74

62.2

71.6

68.6
6
CACTUS CATCH ME
6

10/1
Front-runner
69

61

44.7

50.9

40.4
5
DRAGON FIVE
5

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
72

71

63.5

72.0

66.0
4
IMA SMARTY CAT
4

2/1
Trailer
74

55

39.8

58.2

51.2
2
ETHICAL COMPLIANCE
2

6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
68

66

70.1

48.4

40.4
7
GRIT REALITY
7

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
55

59

46.6

43.2

31.7
3
AL
3

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
74

54

46.4

53.8

44.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TRE LEE DIVINE 6/1

# 9 JOSH U WON 10/1

# 8 COWBOY CACTUS JACK 8/1

TRE LEE DIVINE looks decent to best this field. Could beat this field given the 67 speed rating put up in his last outing. If you gander closely, this horse has some longshot possibilities. JOSH U WON - Has decent speed figures and has to be considered for a bet here. Conditioner has solid win rate (25 percent) at this distance and surface. COWBOY CACTUS JACK - He has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the strongest in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 4 Results
WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 52-9
Against the Spread 34-27

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 41-20
Against the Spread 25-36

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-29

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Old Dominion (+28.5, ML +2000) vs. Virginia Tech, 49-35
Texas Tech (+14.5, ML +500) at Oklahoma State,
Kentucky (+10, ML +300) vs. Mississippi State, 28-7

The largest favorites to cover
Houston (-55.5) vs. Texas Southern, 70-14
Appalachian State (-44) vs. Gardner-Webb, 72-7
Ohio State (-38) vs. Tulane, 49-6
Auburn (-29.5) vs. Arkansas, 34-3

Top 25 Notes

-- The best game of the day took place in Eugene, as Stanford and Oregon played a classic. The Ducks built a 24-7 lead at halftime, but the second half was all Cardinal. Oregon had the ball in the red zone late in the third quarter, trying to make it 31-7. Instead, Joey Alfieri scooped up a fumble and returned it 80 yards for a momentum-changing TD, slicing Oregon's lead to 24-14. Another quick TD near the end of the third made it 24-21. Ducks' moneyline bettors knew it was coming, as the Cardinals posted a field goal at :00 in regulation to force OT. That was also good for a bad beat on the total (see below). The Cardinal finished off the overtime with a TD, winning 38-31 for a miracle cover, too.

-- Ohio State got Urban Meyer back on the sidelines after his three-game suspension, and it was like he never left. They whipped up on Tulane, 49-6. The Buckeyes moved to 3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS at the Horseshoe. The most notable part of this game might have been a bad beat involving the total. Again, see below.

-- Virginia Tech rolled into the Hampton Roads looking to squash winless Old Dominion, a side which entered 0-3 SU/ATS. The Hokies tied the game late, making it 35-35, but the Monarchs picked up a pair of touchdowns late to spring the huge upset, the first win over a Power 5 team in school history.

-- West Virginia had two weeks off to prepare for Kansas State after having last week's road trip to N.C. State canceled due to Hurricane Florence. They looked rested, as they humbled K-State by a 35-6 score in Morgantown. The Mountaineers improved to 3-0 SU/ATS.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina surprised Pittsburgh 38-35 in Chapel Hill, as the two-week break from Hurricane Florence did them some good. The Panthers slipped to 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS. ... Virginia posted an impressive 27-3 win at home against Louisville, improving to 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS. ... N.C. State took care of Marshall by a 37-20 count, covering a six-point number on the road. The Wolfpack are now 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, and they were another team looking well prepared after a week off thanks to the hurricane.

-- Michigan roughed up Nebraska 56-10 in the Big House, dropping the Cornhuskers to 0-3 for the first time since 1945. The honeymoon might be over for Scott Frost at his alma mater. As far as the Wolverines are concerned, they're now 3-0/2-1 ATS in their three games since being dropped by Notre Dame in their opener. ... Meanwhile, Michigan State cooled off Indiana at 'The Rock' by a 35-21 score, covering for the first time in three games this season. ... For anyone expecting Rutgers to be better this season...nah. Tgey were roughed up by Buffalo 42-13, falling to 0-3 SU/ATS over the past three.

-- Iowa State handed Akron its first loss of the season, 26-13. However, the Zips were able to cover a 19 1/2-point number, moving to 2-0 ATS in their two games against FBS schools. The Cyclones slipped to 1-2 ATS in their three games to date. ... TCU dropped their second straight outing, falling to Texas for the first time in four years. The 'Horns have won three in a row, and covered each of their past two, both at home. ... It was exactly 11 years to the day since Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a man...I'm 40" rant, and the opponent that day was Texas Tech. The two sides played again, and the Red Raiders were able to come away with a much-needed 41-17 win in Stillwater, winning and covering for the third straight after getting whipped in their opener.

-- Washington held off a spirited charge from Arizona State, winning 27-20. The Sun Devils easily covered the 18-point number, moving to 9-0 ATS in their past nine trips to Seattle and 16-2-2 ATS in the past 20 meetings in this series overall. ... On Friday night it was USC earning a feel-good win at home against Washington State, 39-36, although the Cougars were able to hang on for the cover. While the Trojans squared their record at 2-2 SU, they slipped to 0-4 ATS.

-- Tennessee was horrific in their rivalry game against Florida, falling in front of the restless natives at Neyland Stadium by a 47-21 count as the Gators were able to take care of the 'over' (46.5) themselves. ... Auburn showed why they were favorites by 29 1/2 over Arkansas, as the Razorbacks really are that bad. The Hogs have dropped three in a row, slipping to 1-3 SU/0-3-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in three in a row for Arkansas. ... Kentucky picked up a 28-7 win against No. 14 Mississippi State, improving to 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS. The Wildcats have scored 27 or more points in all four games this season. Might Kentucky football be headed for a ranking for the first time since 2007?

Mid-Major Report

-- UCF beat down visiting Florida Atlantic on Friday by a 56-36 score, easily covering by pulling away in the second half. The Owls slipped to 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS so far. ... Connecticut was tripped up 51-21 in Syracuse, dropping the Huskies to 1-3 SU/0-3-1 ATS. The 'under' result against the Orange was the first of the season for UConn after three straight overs. ... East Carolina picked up its second consecutive cover, playing South Florida tough in a 20-13 loss in Tampa.

-- Louisiana Tech gave LSU all they could handle, slicing the lead of the Tigers to 24-21 in the fourth quarter before the home team pulled away to win by 17. The Bulldogs have now hit the 'over' in each of their three games this season. ... Western Kentucky surprised Ball State by a 28-20 score for their first win of the season. They improved to 3-1 ATS, however, with the 'under' also 3-1 through four outings. ... Florida International slipped to 2-2 SU with a loss at Miami-Florida, but the Golden Panthers improved to 4-0 ATS.

-- Eastern Michigan played their hearts out, but they fell at San Diego State in overtime by a 23-20 count. The Eagles improved to 3-1 ATS, however. ... For Ball State, while they lost, they have been helpful at the betting window to total bettors. The 'under' is now 4-0. ... Speaking of totals, Ohio has hit the 'over' in all three of their contests so far.

-- Utah State rolled past Air Force 42-32 to improve to 4-0 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' is also 4-0 for the Aggies. ... Colorado State continues to baffle, as they fell at home to FCS Illinois State to slip to 1-4 SU/ATS. The 'under' is also 4-1 overall for the Rams. ... The Aztecs squeaked out the win over EMU in overtime, but they slipped to 1-3 ATS overall on the season. The 'under' is also 3-1 for San Diego State so far.

-- Appalachian State has posted a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far through three outings. ... South Alabama took it on the chin to slip to 1-3 SU/2-1-1 ATS. The Jaguars have been a favorite for total bettors, however, as the 'over' is now a perfect 4-0 for USA. ... Troy hung on for a 35-27 victory at Louisiana-Monroe, earning the road cover. The Trojans led 35-7 at halftime, but gave side bettors a little heart failure by getting outscored 20-0 in the second half.

Bad Beats

-- The Buckeyes were winning 43-7 in the fourth quarter, failing to cover a 36 1/2-point number. They turned it over on downs deep in Green Wave territory midway through the final quarter, and it appeared favorite bettors were going to lose. However it was Tulane bettors taking it in the shorts, as the Buckeyes scored with 1:01 remaining to flip the line in favor of the favorites.

-- Oregon side bettors and moneyline bettors were feeling good about themselves for a good chunk of regulation. Stanford stormed back and forced OT, booting a field goal with :00 left in regulation. That changed the total from a push (59) to an over. Then the Cardinal scored a TD in the extra session for the miracle cover.

-- Cincinnati fell behind 21-0 against Ohio, and moneyline bettors for the Bobcats were feeling good. However, the Bearcats took their first lead with 3:24 to go in regulation to dash the dreams of ML bettors for OU.

-- Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green had a total of (54.5), and the Falcons scored a TD with 5:34 to go to cut the Redhawks' lead to 31-10. 'Under' bettors appeared to be in good shape still, but BSU scored again with 4:13 to go, then Miami scored with :34 left to push it over. With no time left in regulation, the Falcons added a TD for good measure, scoring 27 points total in the final 5:34.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 4
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fourth big college football weekend. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Penn State (-27) 63, Illinois 24: Illinois led 24-21 in the second half looking safe as a nearly four-touchdown home underdog Friday night. The Lions wound score 42 unanswered points including two touchdowns to earn the favorite cover in the final five minutes of the game for an improbable cover and another misleading final score in a Penn State game this season. Penn State has now scored 91 points after the start of the fourth quarter in four games this season.

Western Kentucky (+3) 28, Ball State 20: For a second straight season, Ball State had a cruel finish in this matchup as they lost a lead in the final two minutes last season and led 20-14 with five minutes to go on Saturday. Western Kentucky put together two touchdown drives in-between a Cardinals punt to win by eight as a slight underdog on the road, led by Steven Duncan who replaced Davis Shanley at quarterback.

Syracuse (-30) 51, Connecticut 21: This spread opened at -27½ and climbed all the was to -31 before settling back at -30. The favorite cover didn’t look likely with a 31-14 halftime edge but Syracuse got a punt return touchdown in the third quarter and approached the spread with a 41-14 advantage through three quarters. Connecticut struck for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to close to within 20, but Syracuse answered quickly and then added a field goal following a fumble to lead by exactly 30. The Huskies looked like a great threat to get back within the number reaching the Syracuse 16-yard-line, but an interception near the end zone ended a late threat and a push was the closing line result.

Miami, FL (-25½) 31, Florida International 17: The Hurricanes dominated this game and led 24-0 at halftime with FIU held to only 25 yards. The Hurricanes got past the spread with a 31-0 lead in the third quarter but an interception from N’Kosi Perry halted the momentum, with Perry inserted into the game early relieving Malik Rosier. The Hurricanes got the ball back quickly and reached the red zone early in the fourth quarter, but Perry took a sack with Miami going for it on 4th-and-goal. Perhaps offended by that decision the Panthers had a spark, going 85 yards for their first score of the game with a touchdown near the seven-minute mark that was enough to shift the spread result. FIU snagged a fumble a few plays later to add a field goal and then posted another touchdown after an on-side kick recovery for a very misleading 14-point final margin.

Florida State (-10) 37, Northern Illinois 19: The spread on this game jumped around significantly hitting -12 on Friday before dipping as low as -9½ briefly, settling at -10. That was the exact margin heading into the fourth quarter after Seminoles connected on a 78-yard pass play. The Huskies didn’t take long to answer but for the second straight time failed on a two-point conversion, trailing by 11. Those that had the Huskies weren’t necessarily deserving of a win as NIU was +4 in turnovers and soundly out-gained but the Huskies took a late sack going for it on 4th-and-long from their own 35. With 12 seconds remaining Florida State rushed in for a touchdown to pad the final margin and make it a clear Seminoles win and cover.

Ohio State (-38) 49, Tulane 6: The Buckeyes led 42-6 at the half, well on their way but not quite past the massive home favorite spread in Urban Meyer’s return. A scoreless third quarter featured five consecutive punts before Ohio State failed going for it on a 4th-and-2 play but Tulane likewise failed going for it on its own fourth down in Ohio State territory a few minutes later. With just over a minute on the clock, Ohio State broke the scoring drought with a favorite cover saving touchdown for a 43-point win.

Toledo (-11½) 63, Nevada 44: Scoring on a blocked punt return and a kickoff return, Toledo led most of the way but Nevada didn’t go away, cutting the margin to four points in the third quarter. Toledo scored late in the third to lead by 11 and then extended that lead to 56-38 early in the fourth. Nevada would answer but failed going for two to leave the margin at 12 for a big distinction but it didn’t matter as Mitchell Guadagni broke a 34-yard touchdown scamper a few plays later for a 19-point edge. Nevada was intercepted and then stopped on downs near midfield in two late possessions to fall short of the spread.

SMU (+6) 31, Navy 30: SMU led 23-14 early in the fourth quarter taking advantage of a short field after a fumble. The extra-point was blocked and was returned the other way however as Navy was back within seven. Navy tied the game with about six minutes remaining and overtime was needed. Navy went first and did what it needed to do over nine plays to get seven points, sitting past the road favorite spread momentarily. SMU took seven plays to answer including a fourth down conversion. Sonny Dykes rolled the dice and went for two and it worked for the upset, with those on the home underdog cheering the decision to avoid a second overtime session.

Georgia (-14) 43, Missouri 29: The Bulldogs scored on a fumble return and a blocked punt return in the first half and didn’t have an offensive touchdown until the third quarter, leading 27-7. Missouri was productive in this game and was within 11 by the start of the fourth quarter. Both teams scored touchdowns early in the fourth before Missouri missed a field goal. Missouri failed on downs in its own territory with about five minutes remaining and the next attempt for a field goal was good for Georgia for a 14-point final margin, even with the common spread though the highly ranked Bulldogs were priced at -14½ at times.

Stanford (-3½) 38, Oregon 31: Oregon was in complete control with a 24-7 halftime edge and briefly appeared to go up 30-7 late in the third quarter before a controversial replay overturn. Oregon still had 1st-and-goal at the 1, but fumbled and lost nine yards and two plays later a high snap was returned 80 yards for a Stanford touchdown. The Cardinal cut the margin to three just ahead of the end of the quarter and had the ball down to the Oregon 30-yard-line early in the fourth quarter, failing going for it on 4th-and-1. Oregon delivered on a 4th-and-1 of its own with about five minutes remaining and got a touchdown on the next play to lead by 10. Stanford answered with a three-play touchdown drive and Oregon looked capable of running out most of the clock with a new set of downs and 1:35 remaining with Stanford down to one timeout. Instead the Ducks fumbled reaching for a game-sealing 1st down on a second down run in the final minute and Stanford managed to get a tying field goal as time expired. In overtime, the Cardinal got a deflected pass touchdown while Oregon wound up intercepted on 4th-and-goal for a stunning turn of events with Stanford getting the road favorite cover despite not leading at any point in regulation.

Auburn (-29½) 34, Arkansas 3: This wasn’t quite the SEC blowout that the final score and narrow cover for Auburn might suggest as Auburn finished with just 225 total yards in the game, but was consistently in great field position thanks to turnovers and special teams success. Auburn led by 24-3 heading into the fourth quarter despite only 161 yards of offense. The Tigers added 10 points in the final nine minutes of the game including a late field goal that narrowly earned the favorite cover.

Troy (-4) 35, UL-Monroe 27: The Trojans had a 35-7 halftime edge but things got tight late as the Warhawks scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to climb within eight. After punting on its first four second half possessions, Troy managed to get in field goal range but missed as UL-Monroe had the ball back with just over two minutes remaining. The Warhawks reached the 11-yard line with a new set of downs and still nearly a minute remaining but an interception ended the comeback bid.

North Texas (-11½) 47, Liberty 7: This game featured a rather misleading final score as Liberty had a new set of downs near midfield down 21-7 well into the third quarter before a lengthy lightning delay. It was a different game after the break as Liberty missed a field goal on that promising drive and then saw North Texas add four late touchdowns to win by 40 despite relatively close production numbers.

Alabama (-23½) 45, Texas A&M 23: Alabama was tested a bit in this game but still led by 29 heading into the fourth quarter. Halfway through the final frame the Aggies spoiled the favorite cover with an 88-yard touchdown drive that would conclude the scoring in the game.

Wisconsin (-3) 28, Iowa 17: Iowa had control of this game most of the way but caught a tough break with the foot of a blocking Iowa player contacting the ball on a punt leading to a short Wisconsin touchdown. The Hawkeyes answered to lead by three through a series of punts before Wisconsin completed an 88-yard drive to take the lead inside the final minute, slipping just past the spread 21-17. Iowa was intercepted on a deflected pass on its last effort and with 22 seconds remaining the Badgers broke a run for another score to make for a misleading final result, pushing the low total just ‘over’ in the process as well.

New Mexico State (-5½) 27, UTEP 20: The winless Aggies got two big breaks with a blocked punt return and a fumble return touchdown yet still led by just four late in the fourth quarter. With just over three minutes remaining a 22-yard field goal sealed the narrow road favorite cover in this ugly battle out west.

Utah State (-9½) 42, Air Force 32: The Aggies took control in the middle of this game with four consecutive touchdowns surrounding halftime, leading 35-14 before Air Force came up with a late third quarter field goal. The Falcons made it a game with a pair of touchdowns in 13 seconds of game clock, the second of which came on a fumble return. Up three Utah State got a late 70 yard run from Gerold Bright to put the margin at 10, right near the number which reached -11 but dropped in the hours before kickoff of this late night Mountain West game. The Falcons were in position to make the pricing a moot point reaching the Utah State 16-yard-line late in the game before failing on downs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 27

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N CAROLINA (1 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 1) - 9/27/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 5

Trend Report

Thursday, September 27

North Carolina @ Miami-FL
North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing Miami-FL

Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 6 games when playing North Carolina