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8-Unit Play. Take Chicago -3 over Tampa Bay (Sunday, September 30th at 1:00 PM ET) Take Chicago ATS as my 8-Unit NFL Game of the Year for Sunday. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Bears are the superior team at home here Sunday against a really bad Bucs defense. This Bears defense is the best that the Bucs have faced this season and I look for them to cause all kinds of trouble for the Bucs QB Sunday. The Bears have given up just 5.7 1st half points this season and just 3 1st half points in their only home game. The Bucs have given up 24 1st half points in their lone road game and 15.5 1st half points overall this season. The Bucs have now given up 443.5 ypg this season and 30.5 ppg overall this season, including 40 points in their only road game. You can expect this Bears offense to get a huge boost here Sunday against one of worst defenses in the NFL, and you can also expect this Bucs offense to get shut down by one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Bears are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a winning record on the road and they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games overall. The Bucs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game and now they face a Bears team that should definitely be 3-0 heading into this game Sunday. It is also crucial for the Bears to take care of business at home before their bye week against a Bucs team that is playing on a short week, as the Bears head to Miami next and then host the Patriots. Play Chicago ATS as we move to 8-0 in the NFL season.
***8-UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR SUNDAY! 100% 7-0 NFL SEASON!***
Sunday September 30th 2018- 8 Unit Play Take Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland (4:05pm est): The Oakland Raiders have played a lot better than their 0-3 record to start the season. The Raiders held the lead over the best team in football (LA Rams) in week one at halftime before getting outplayed in the 2nd half. The Raiders came back in week two and went into very tough Denver where the Broncos altitude edge has made them nearly unbeatable early in the season over the years and the Raiders led that game the whole way before allowing a last second field goal and losing by a point to the Broncos. Last week they went into Miami and had to play what amounted to a 10am PST start for Oakland. The Raiders once again dominated for most of that game until losing late. It was also another very tough environment for Oakland as you have to wonder if the extreme Florida heat and humidity effected the Raiders who were wearing their black jerseys. The bottom line is the Raiders have actually played well enough in their first three games (in two very difficult road spots) to have a couple wins right now but they've not been able to catch any breaks thus far including being last in the NFL in the all important turnover margin stat. The Cleveland Browns are getting a lot of love this week after finally getting a win last week at home over New York Jets. It's never easy for a rookie quarterback making his road debut like we have here with the Browns Baker Mayfield in this one. Mayfield seen his first professional action last week as he came off the bench to lead the Browns to their comeback victory but keep in mind that was against a Jets defense that didn't prepare to face Mayfield in that game. Now he will face an Oakland Raiders defense here that has game planned all week to face Mayfield in this game. Cleveland is definitely a better team this year but they have also greatly benefitted from leading the NFL in turnover margin at +9 overall on the season which is double the next best team in the league who sit at +4 on the year. Both of the Browns non-loss games had a lot to do with their huge turnover edge they had as they were +5 at home against Pittsburgh in their week one tie and +3 last week in their 4 point home victory over the New York Jets. The big thing that sticks out to me is how the Browns struggled to win and tie those two games despite the fact they had such an overwhelming turnover differential. The Jets also had a +5 turnover edge in their week one 48-17 blowout road win over the Detroit Lions while the Browns only managed a tie in their +5 turnover game at home versus the Steelers that same week. Overall I'm not as impressed with Cleveland as most right now as they have also had a very favorable schedule so far with two of their first three games coming at home and their win was over a New York Jets team that was playing it's 3rd game in 11 days and who had to travel on a short week to play a Thursday game against the Browns, a huge scheduling edge for the home team. Lastly I think mindset and motivation for this game favors Oakland in a big way. The Browns finally put an end to their long losing streak last week so the pressure to do that is now off while the Raiders come in winless and desperate to save their season here at home. Take Oakland minus the points in this one.
3-Unit Play. #264. Take Chicago Bears -3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday @ 1pm)
The Bears could not have played worse at Arizona but they barely held on thanks to Josh Rosen being young and throwing a pick in the end of the game. Frankly, if Rose would have played from the beginning I think the Cardinals had a chance to win it. The difference in this game is that Chicago can run the ball, Nagy is a great coach who will keep protecting Mitchell and will play ball control here. He has a great Defense that he can rely on and whereas the Bucs were able to score a lot of points on a Steelers Defense that is young and is a mess, the Bears strength is their defense and we like the Bears here at home, to play much better overall on the offensive end, and a Bucs defense that continues to be porous and will make Chicao's offense better than it looked last week, we like the Bears to get it done this week at home.
3-Unit Play. #270. Take Oakland Raiders -2.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 4:05pm)
This is set up nicely for Oakland. 0-3 to start the year, they return home to face Baker on a massive high from helping his team beat the Jets on a nationally televised game and a comeback at that. Having said that, Carr will likely play much better this week and Oakland is better than their record shows. They had to face the Rams (posssible Super Bowl Finalist), the Dolphins (undefated) and Denver (losing by just 1 point against one of the best defensive fronts in the league). Now, Oakland comes back home and they face none of that and they face Baker who this defense will get up to face in a big way and this is something that Grduen will relish here. What if I told you Oakland is 6th in passing offense but 28th in points scored? At some point that will even out, we like Oakland to get back on track today.
3-Unit Play. #271. Take San Francisco 49ers +10.5 over LA Chargers (Sunday @ 4:25pm)
We roll with the Niners here as this team is just more than Jimmy G. At the end of the day we trust Shannahan to get a lot out of Beathard who used to quarterback the Iowa Hawkeyes and who has thrown for more than 5000 passing yards. This kid has talent and a lot of heart and I think Kyle Shannahan who got the most out of Matt Ryan and made him MVP (and Ryan struggled the following year without him), will do a great job bringing out his strengths and as the Chargers face a San Fran team that will be motivated and will rally around Jimm G's injury, this is a team that plays down to opponents (Bills in the 2nd half) and plays up to certain opponents (Rams), we like San Fran to hang tight here against LA but end up winning by a about 4-6 points this Sunday.
3-Unit Play. #253. Take Houston Texans +1.5 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday @ 1pm)
The Texans are 0-3 out of the gates and it is just hard to see them go 0-4 with as much talent as they have. This is not a bad team, they are facing their division rivals here, they are fighting for the entire season here, This is the 8th ranked offense in the league at the end of the day, they had to face a good Giants defense coming off a national television loss, they had to face a very good Tennessee defense (same field goal loss by the Jaguars) and of course had to face New England and lost by a touchdown. We like the Texans to finally bust out here and get back on track this week. The Colts are 28th in offense and 15th in rush defense and all of that doesn't bode well here for them and we like Houston to win and win this game Outright here.
4-UNIT STRONGS PATRIOTS -6.5 vs dolphins (1pm) COLTS -1 vs texans (1pm) BENGALS/FALCONS OVER 53.5(1pm) RAIDERS -2.5 (-120) vs browns (4:05pm) GIANTS +3.5 (-120) vs saints (4:25pm) RAVENS/STEELERS UNDER 51(SNF - 8:20pm) *All Lines from VI Consensus 9/28/18 - 6:30pm **All times Eastern
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