Service Plays Sunday 9/30/18

[Iowethe man]

Goodfella

GOODFELLA | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/30/18 - 1:00 PM
253 HOU 0.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 254 IND


double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

H&H Sports (NFL)

3* Giants/Saints Under 52

2* Dolphins/Patriots Over 50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS BANK
LOCK
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
lock
seattle -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ZACK CIMINI
detroit +3
tennessee over 41

[Wellngood76]

Scoutspicks
10 units GOY. Atlanta Braves -145
Bill Scoutspicks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lenny Stevens

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20* Lions
20* Eagles
10* NE
10* Cleveland
10* Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

20* Cincinnati +5
10* Indianapolis -1.5
10* Oakland -2.5

[Steel11]

Nelly's Sports
Sunday, Sep. 30


2* #266 Tennessee Titans +3.5 over Philadelphia Eagles 12:00 PM CTThe 27-20 loss at Miami looks respectable for the Titans especially considering the three turnovers and losing Marcus Mariota in the game. Tennessee has rebounded with back-to-back quality wins with Mariota returning last week to deliver a huge road win in Jacksonville. The Eagles got to 2-1 with a home win over Indianapolis. While the offense had some clear rust in the return of Carson Wentz including two costly turnovers, the defense was dominant with the Colts featuring 119 total yards until two desperation drives in the final three minutes. Tennessee is quietly 2-1 in a transition season with Marcus Mariota coming off the bench last week in a game with only field goals and 465 total yards combined. A low scoring grind looks likely with the home field edge for the Titans not getting enough respect as the defending champions have been vulnerable. The Titans have the third best scoring defense in the NFL through three weeks with especially impressive numbers against the pass the rival the numbers the Eagles have posted. Philadelphia could be in a flat spot in a challenging road game after the return of Wentz last week at home and with a NFC Championship rematch up next week. Philadelphia has posted only 6.0 yards per pass attempt with a very limited passing game with all the injuries and Philadelphia has allowed 7.0 yards per pass while surrendering more than twice as many touchdowns in the air as they have produced. The Eagles have taken 10 sacks in three games and the Titans are a team that will persist with the ground game while being comfortable playing in a tight defensive battle. The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t looked the part so far this season and in this matchup points will be at a premium in a dangerous spot on the schedule with Wentz surprisingly just 6-10 in his career in road games while Mariota is 10-5 the past two years at home.
1* #268 Arizona Cardinals +3 over Seattle Seahawks 3:05 PM CTThe Seahawks have covered in four of the last five trips to Glendale with these teams now lurking at the bottom of the NFC after being chief contenders in recent years. Losing both meetings against Arizona last season kept a 9-7 Seahawks team out of the playoffs and Seattle’s defense has allowed 82 points in the past three meetings. Arizona blew a 14-0 lead last week to fall to 0-3 while Seattle held on to avoid 0-3. Seattle is in a third road game in four weeks with an offense that is just as limited as Arizona’s with the Cardinals facing a QB decision this week, going with rookie Josh Rosen over veteran Sam Bradford. It isn’t a hard decision as Bradford had awful numbers posting 5.0 yards per attempt with four interceptions. If nothing else Rosen will be an unknown for the struggling Seattle defense that has few of the stars left from the Legion of Boom and has been beset by significant injuries. Seattle has allowed 5.1 yards per rush with one of the worst run defenses in the NFL while that has been an area of strength for the Cardinals and running the ball will be critical for these offenses that have had trouble protecting the quarterback. Seattle has produced just 3.3 yards per rush on the season as Arizona has been a stronger per carry rushing team despite averaging only 58 rushing yards per game playing from behind much of the season. David Johnson is still one of the most talented players in an NFL backfield and Arizona’s defense was fantastic at creating turnovers in the preseason and should be capable of big plays in a desperate 0-3 spot at home. Seattle has benefitted from 8 turnovers on defense this season despite the 1-2 start with only a narrow win while Arizona has one of the worst turnover margins in the league contributing to the 0-3 start. Losing teams in a Game 4 road favorite role have been a terrible ATS proposition historically including a 16-27 run since 2011 as the ugly underdog is worth a look with Rosen likely to provide a spark.
2* #274 New York Giants +3.5 over New Orleans Saints 3:25 PM CTThe Saints are allowing an eye-popping 11.2 yards per pass attempt, the worst mark in the NFL by more than two yards with opposing QBs completing over 74 percent of passes. After a lengthy overtime win vs. a division rival on the road this will be a difficult follow-up game. The Giants put it together offensively last week and New York has been respectable defensively, especially against the pass.. The strong run defense numbers for the Saints are a mirage based on how the games have played out and this is a second straight road game for a franchise that hasn’t had a winning road record since 2011. New Orleans could very easily be 0-3 despite getting accolades as a team many see as a NFC Super Bowl threat. The Saints would have lost to the Browns at home if Cleveland made a few kicks while last week’s game in Atlanta was a pure coin flip, with the team winning the coin toss to get the ball first at a huge advantage in a game with two terrible and exhausted defensive teams. New Orleans is on a 13-20 ATS run in the road favorite role since 2010 and New Orleans has been a horrible first month performer in the Payton/Brees era despite the positive start this season. The Giants are a team poised for a rebound after last season’s injury-plagued disaster and getting last week’s win should provide confidence moving forward. New York has played quality defenses in all three games and have been in three one-score games while allowing just over 20 points per game. Evan Engram’s absence isn’t ideal but the offense has enough options and can isolate the top New Orleans defender with Odell Beckham requiring a lot of attention. Expect more positive gains from rookie Saquon Barkley while the Saints have proven while the Saints won’t have the chance for a big fourth quarter as they have had the past three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Animal

Sunday Premium Picks:
3* Indianapolis Pick
5* Atlanta -3 1/2
3* Jacksonville ‘UNDER’ 39 1/2
4* Chicago -3
4* Philadelphia -3

It’s taken me three weeks but I’m ready to admit Houston has issues but it’s still a mystery to me how a team this talented can’t win. It could be a hidden injury to Deshaun Watson or the conservative approach of Coach O’Brien. But the defense isn’t playing lights out either allowing 20 or more points to Tennessee and the Giants the past two weeks. That Colts’ road win at Washington looks more impressive now after watching the Skins beat up the Packers scoring 31 points. They never found the end zone against Indy and the Colts stop unit has been impressive with rookie weakside linebacker Darius Leonard. Houston’s receiving unit is banged up with Bruce Ellington now on injured reserve and Sammy Coates is a question mark at best. This is the Colts’ only home game in a five-game stretch and that makes it HUGE. Indy has owned Houston at home with a 14-2 record here the last 16 meetings. Do you realize the Texans are 0-9 straight-up in their last nine games? The addition of a healthy Marlon Mack will boost the Indy offense because he can be used out of the backfield in a variety of ways. I am hoping offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo can play. He’s listed as questionable early Sunday morning. Andrew Luck has just looked better than Watson these days and this is really a must-win for the Colts on this brutal early schedule sandwiched between four road games.

I do not like Cincinnati without Joe Mixon in the lineup and as of Saturday night he was downgraded to doubtful. Plus the Bengal secondary is not nearly as good without a healthy Dre Kirkpatrick. The Bengals are also missing center Billy Price and if we know anything about Andy it’s that he needs as much protection as possible. Atlanta has key injuries on defense for sure but there offense is light years ahead of the Bengals and Matt Ryan finally figured out how to use Calvin Ridley. The Birds should play with desperation considering they are 1-2 coming off a tough defeat to the Saints in overtime at home. I like the scheduling advantage in this game for the Falcons. This is their 3rd consecutive home game while the Bengals are away for the third time this month. The Bengals have some decent pass rushers but the linebacker and secondary positions are vulnerable at best. In their first two games they allowed over 300 passing yards to the Colts and Ravens and last week permitted 230 rushing yards at Carolina on 41 carries. The Panthers are a very physical team and it would not surprise me if the Bengals are a little banged up and playing a second-straight away game. The Falcons are at Pittsburgh next and that won’t be easy. Atlanta is 7-0 ATS as a favorite when coming off a loss as a chalk. Matt Ryan had five touchdown passes in the defeat to the Saints last week. There’s no way Andy Dalton can match him at Mercedes Benz.

Five field goals last week at Jacksonville. Who scores this week with the Jets in town? The Jaguars have permitted just 44 points in three games. The Jets have tallied 29 in total in their last two games. The Jets are 5-0 ‘UNDER’ recently against fellow-AFC opponents and 6-2 ‘UNDER’ in their last eight on the road versus a winning team. The Jags are 5-0 ‘UNDER’ following their last five straight-up defeat and 6-1 ‘UNDER’ in their last seven ATS losses. A low total for sure but I think one of these teams could easily be held to 14 or less. This is easily the best defense Sam Darnold has faced while Blake Bortles has thrown for 168 or less yards in 2/3 this season. Throw in the fact both Fournette and Yeldon are gimpy and it’s hard to imagine the Jaguars being very productive against a decent New York defense. Despite the low figure, go low.

You can’t run on the Bears. Chicago has allowed just 191 rushing yards on 58 carries at 3.4 a carry and nobody has scored on the ground versus the Bruins yet. Tampa doesn’t even try to run really and the Chicago defensive line against either Fitzpatrick or Winston just appears to be a disaster for the mistake-prone Bucs off a short week of preparation. Chicago leads the league in sacks with 14 and I’ll be surprised if we don’t see a repeat of the first half of last Monday night when Fitzpatrick had three interceptions and Tampa turned it over four times. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen are now both healthy and they led the comeback win at Arizona. Cohen had 53 yards on the ground on five carries and he is really explosive. It hasn’t been flashy but Mitchell Trubisky has completed 73.5 and 68.6 percent the last two weeks for over 400 yards. Tampa was #32 in total defense last year and #32 versus the pass and already this season they have allowed 91-points in three games and 12-yards short of 1,100 passing yards. There is just too much of a defensive disparity in this game for me not to invest on Chicago at this discounted price. Tampa is now without Vernon Hardgreaves and Chris Conti in the secondary while I thought Brent Grimes lost a step in the Pittsburgh game. The Bears beat Seattle by seven in their only other home game and at 2-1 are a breath of fresh air in the NFC. Khalil Mack could be the MVP right now and the defense not only has 14 sacks but has forced seven fumbles. Tampa 2-7 ATS before their bye week.

Alshon Jeffrey, Jay Ajayi, and Jordan Mathews are all expected back in the Philadelphia lineup today. Nobody runs harder in this league than Anajy and he alone makes a significant difference. Does Tennessee remind you of a team that can knock off the Jaguars and Eagles in consecutive weeks? They don’t to me. The Titans are #29 in total offense and #29 in passing. In today’s game that just doesn’t work. Plus they are facing a Philly defense that is ranked #8 overall thru three games. Carson Wentz’ mobility figures to improve week-to-week and his 25-of-37 for being rusty last week wasn’t too bad. In their only home game this year Tennessee beat winless Houston 20-17 but needed a trick play to do it and were out-gained 437-283. The Titans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 as a home underdog. Marcus Mariota came off the bench last week and threw for 100 yards on 12 completions at Jacksonville (dink and dunk). But he’s only one hit away from returning to the sidelines and this time there is no Blaine Gabbert (concussion). I bet you didn’t know Tennessee has not scored more than 24-points in 15 consecutive games. Mariota is having a difficult time shaking off a nerve injury in his elbow. He seems reluctant to throw downfield and we all know how the Eagles love to blitz.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive:

450 Jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER

5* PITTSBURGH
3* cleveland +2.5
2* atlanta, giants, tennessee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony wright

lock
colts

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The coach

lock
seattle under 40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Houston super pick
New England
Philadelphia

Fades
Indy super play
Miami
Tennessee