Thursday 10-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis @ New England

Game 301-302
October 4, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
127.961
New England
135.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10 1/2); Under

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NFL

Week 5


Thursday
Colts (1-3) @ Patriots (2-2)— McDaniels surprisingly turned down Colts’ HC job last February, to stay as Patriots’ OC. Patriots won/covered both 2018 home games, winning 27-20/38-7; they were held under 6.0 yards/pass attempt in both their losses (6.5/7.8 in W’s). Indy lost its last two games by total of seven points; they’re 2-0 as road dogs this year; since ’15, they’re 12-9-1 as road dogs. Since ’13, New England is 24-11-3 as home faves; they get #1 WR Edelman back, which helps Brady a lot. Patriots won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 21+. Colts lost last five visits here, by 3-7-35-21-38 points; their last series win was in ‘09. Average total in last eight series games, 62.3. AFC South teams are 5-4 vs spread outside division.

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Opening Line Report - Week 5
Joe Williams

We have passed the quarter-pole of the National Football League regular season and there are just two teams with unblemished records, the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams. We almost lost the Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night, but they rallied from 10 points down on the road against the Denver Broncos to not only win, but cover a 3.5-point number, too. The Chiefs are also the only team in the NFL with a perfect 4-0 ATS record through four games.

Week 5 features sees two more teams on byes, as the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be on the shelf. The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins are also back from their Week 4 rest.

Thursday, Oct. 4

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, 51.5)

QB Andrew Luck missed the entire 2017 season due to his shoulder injury, but he finally looks like he is back to his pre-injury form. He dropped a career-high 464 yards on the Texans in an overtime loss at home, but he also lost WR T.Y. Hilton to a hamstring injury. Head coach Frank Reich said it doesn't look good that Hilton will be ready for the quick turnaround in Foxboro. It's a bit concerning since the Colts have struggled in the run game, now will be missing their biggest receiving weapon for Luck.

The Pats dropped the Dolphins from the ranks of the unbeaten with an emphatic win on Sunday. Most shops have the Pats favored by 10 for this one, but Treasure Island had New England listed at -9.5. The Patriots have covered each of their two home games and the 'under' is 2-0 at Gillette Stadium this season.

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GRONK LISTED AS DNP

Tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as “did not practice” on New England’s injury report on Monday ahead of its Thursday night matchup where it hosts Indianapolis. Gronk pulled himself from Sunday’s game against Miami with an ankle injury and it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to recover on a short week. Gronk’s absence would obviously be a blow to the Patriots offense but one-way Brady and co. will help deal with the possible loss is with the return of Julian Edelman.

Brady, for one, is very excited, saying this about Edelman on Monday: “He gets open so quick, I think that's the thing about Julian, his explosiveness in the routes, in and out of breaks. It's very comforting for a quarterback to see a guy get open really early in a route.”

The Pats looked great offensively in Week 4, but Brady still hasn’t found a receiver he can consistently trust. That will change on Thursday. Expect Brady to look Edelman’s way early and often in a game with a total set at 51.5 and jump on the Over for Edelman’s receptions total when the market opens later in the week.


HILTON DOUBTFUL

In sticking with the Thursday nighter, Indianapolis will likely be without receiver T.Y. Hilton after he was forced from Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. Add in injuries to top tight end Jack Doyle and top running back Marlon Mack and the Colts are going to be severely shorthanded on offense as they head to Foxborough.

The Colts were fine on Sunday without their top playmakers but that was at home and against a very bad Houston pass defense that ranks 27th in the league, giving up 288 yards per game through the air. New England’s pass defense ranks eighth (226.2 yards per game) and has been especially good at home, giving up 158 yards in Week 1 and 116 yards on Sunday. We’re not optimistic about Indy’s chances on Thursday and we’re taking the Under on its team total.


FOURNETTE OUT MULTIPLE GAMES

The injury fallout from Sunday continues as it’s being reported that Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will miss multiple games, including a mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City on Sunday. T.J. Yeldon will start in Fournette’s place and Corey Grant will change the pace so we’re staying away from the committee backfield and looking to receiver Keelan Cole for a prop.

We’ve done well with Cole so far this season, correctly calling his Over 3.5 receptions in Week 3 and then his Under 58.5 receiving yards in Week 4. It seems Cole is the kind of player who is being scripted in and out of weekly game plans. This week, coach Doug Marrone should be looking towards Cole as he game plans without Fournette and against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in passing defense. We’ll be leaning towards the Over on Cole’s reception total.


CHARGERS LOSE WHITE

L.A. Chargers’ linebacker Kyzir White had a knee scope on Monday and is considered week to week. White might not be a household name, but the rookie was playing on 73 percent of defensive snaps and has been solid in pass coverage. The Chargers’ loss is Jared Cook’s gain. The Raiders’ tight end is on fire and is coming off an 8-110-2 performance against the Browns on Sunday. Cook is Derek Carr’s most trusted target and that was clear when the Raiders lined him up as a wideout on third-and-3 late in overtime and threw him a jump ball — which he came down with. The Chargers-Raiders game on Sunday looks to be a shootout with a total set at 53.5 and bettors can expect a lot of balls thrown in Cook’s direction. We’re taking the Over on his reception total.


COOK STILL NOT HEALTHY

Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook admitted on Monday that his hamstring still isn’t 100 percent and that fans need to be patient with the Vikings’ run game. This is not what Vikings backers want to hear from their star running back who is coming off a 10-rush, 20-yard performance against the Rams on Thursday night.

Cook will likely play on Sunday, but we are going to be fading whatever his rushing yards total is as he’s in the worst possible spot for a running back with a trip to Philadelphia. The Eagles have been the best against the run so far this season, giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game. They gave up just 24 yards on 12 combined carries to Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis on Sunday and 37 yards on 11 combined carries to Jordan Wilkens and Nyheim Hines in Week 3. No one has been able to run on the Eagles yet this season and that’s not likely to change with a hobbled Cook. Take the Under on his rushing total with confidence.

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Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ENGLAND (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Belichick “under” 12-4 last 16 reg season games, Indy “under” 11-3 last 14 (2-1 TY). Colts have covered first two on road this season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

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Ugly Dogs - Week 5

The entire purpose of the Ugly Dogs is to take a good look at the teams that nobody wants to take. The only way to survive NFL betting is to force yourself to take teams that nobody dare would lay money on. Conventional “wisdom” consistently busts bankrolls in the NFL. It also offers enhanced betting value on the Ugly Dogs.

After all, if the linemaker is going to attract betting action on teams nobody wants he has to sweeten the pot and offer a better price than what may actually be warranted. Right from the start in Week 5 we have some truly ugly looking dogs. Let’s take a look at those teams that the masses will be avoiding and opposing.

Indianapolis Colts +10 at New England Patriots

The Patriots exposed the Miami Dolphins as AFC East pretenders and showed them who is boss in a devastating 38-7 annihilation. Now the meek and sluggish Colts will come calling to Gillette Stadium on Thursday night. Not only are the Colts 1-3 straight up but they are also rebuilding and have little if any supporting cast to go with quarterback Andrew Luck. Nobody wants the Colts in what is expected to be a slaughter. Yet how can the Patriots match their perfect performance from last week? Don’t be surprised if the Colts stay within the big number against a 2-2 New England team that may be feeling too satisfied.

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Teams to Watch - Week 5

Week 5 of the NFL starts on Thursday night, with the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots going head to head. That game will actually be part of this piece, as we once again look at teams to play and avoid in the coming week. As always, we will be giving you a pair of teams to play, in one form or another, this week, while also delivering two teams that you should probably avoid if you want to keep your bankroll intact.

Let’s get right to our play and avoid predictions for Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season with all odds, props and futures provided by YouWager.eu.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

While it is certainly good to see Andrew Luck back under center for the Colts, it’s fair to suggest that he has not yet reached the heights we saw from him before his shoulder injury. Perhaps the Colts brass are easing him back into action, or perhaps they don’t think he has the arm strength to go deep on a regular basis. Whatever the case, the Colts have been struggling and will probably continue to do so on Thursday night.

The rumors of the demise of the Patriots appear to have been greatly exaggerated, as they pounded the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Rookie RB Sony Michel is finally fit and ready to go, plus New England gets Julian Edelman back from suspension for this one, which is why I suggest you play the New England Patriots.

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TRYING OUR LUCK (AGAIN) WITH BUCK

Last week, we suggested betting on Ravens running back Javorious “Buck” Allen to score a touchdown at any time, mostly because of the praise he received from coach Jim Harbaugh and the extra touches he was getting near the goal line. That bet didn’t cash as Alex Collins got the only rushing touchdown for the Ravens in Week 4. But it’s important to analyze exactly what happened with the rushing splits between the two running backs. Collins scored on the first red-zone carry of the night and then on the second he fumbled, and it was recovered by Pittsburgh. From that point on, Allen received all four of the red-zone carries. Bettors should expect Allen to get the majority of red-zone carries against Cleveland this week and we’re again backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


FEWER SNAPS FOR CALLAWAY?

If you only look at the numbers, it would appear a breakout is due for Cleveland rookie receiver Antonio Callaway as he posted nine targets and a team-high 138 air yards in Week 4. But Callaway has made a lot of mistakes and coach Hue Jackson had this to say about those miscues on Tuesday: “Maybe not playing as many plays as he plays in a game will help him get to step back, look, take a blow, come back, and do it again."

Callaway has all the talent in the world but so far has only been able to haul in 10-of-24 targets and doesn’t have more than four catches in a game yet this season. This weekend, it sounds like he’ll be playing fewer snaps and, when he does get on the field, it’ll be against a Ravens squad ranked fourth in passing defense. We’re taking the Under 50.5 on his receiving yards total.


NOT READY FOR GORDON

Patriots fans are giddy over the prospect of having Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski running routes together for the rest of the season. If they can stay healthy (and out of trouble), it could be one of the more potent receiving groups in the league, but we’re not ready to put money behind Gordon just yet. He played just 22 snaps (18%) in Week 4 and had one catch for 17 yards on two targets. He’s just not up to speed with the offense yet and, with the Pats being on a short week, that’s not likely to change on Thursday night. We’re taking the Under 52.5 on his receiving yards total.


HENRY TO CASH IN

The Buffalo Bills looked a lot more like the Buffalo Bills in Week 4, getting shut out 22-0 at Green Bay. Fading the Bills is going to pay off more often than not as we don’t expect many wins like the one in Minnesota in Week 3. Buffalo hosts Tennessee this week and, although we don’t love betting on the Titans offense, we do like Derrick Henry to hit pay dirt.

The Bills don’t have a terrible run defense (ranked 11th at 95.2 yards against per game) but they have given up five rushing touchdowns, putting them only behind the Cardinals and the Falcons for most in the league. Henry, while posting just 40.8 yards on 13.5 carries per game, does have nine red-zone carries on the season, including seven in the past two weeks. To put that into perspective, Dion Lewis has zero red-zone carries in the last two weeks and Marcus Mariota has just one. Henry hasn’t found the end zone yet this season but that is bound to change this week and we’re backing him to score at any time.


BIG DAY COMING FOR BORTLES

As mentioned yesterday, Leonard Fournette is likely to miss multiple games, including this weekend’s tasty matchup with Kansas City. Because of this, we suggested taking the Over 4.5 on Keelan Cole’s reception total and we’re going to stack that with a Blake Bortles bet.

In the five games that Jacksonville has played without Fournette, dating back to last season, Bortles has attempted 34.4 pass attempts per game. Bortles passed for 376 yards without Fournette in Week 2 and then 388 yards last week in a game that Fournette was forced out of early with an injury. This week, the Jags travel to Kansas City. Yes, Jacksonville has the league’s best defense, but Kansas City will score, and Bortles is going to be forced to throw a lot if the Jags want to keep pace. The Chiefs are giving up 328.5 passing yards per game and we expect Bortles to get near that mark on Sunday. We’re taking the Over 287.5 on his passing yards total.

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NFL's Top ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Chiefs 4-0 ATS
t2. Rams 3-1 ATS
t2. Ravens 3-1 ATS
t2. Bears 3-1 ATS
t2. Bengals 3-1 ATS
t2. Jaguars 3-1 ATS
t2. Dolphins 3-1 ATS
t2. Titans 3-1 ATS
t2. Browns 3-1 ATS
t2. Lions 3-1 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams Heading Into Week 5:

32. Broncos 0-3-1 ATS
t22. 49ers 1-3 ATS
t22. Steelers 1-3 ATS
t22. Jets 1-3 ATS
t22. Giants 1-3 ATS
t22. Texans 1-3 ATS
t22. Bills 1-3 ATS
t22. Falcons 1-3 ATS
t22. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t22. Chargers 1-3 ATS
t22. Cowboys 1-3 ATS


NFL's Top OVER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

t1. Bengals 4-0
t1. Chargers 4-0
t1. Buccaneers 4-0
t4. Falcons 3-1
t4. Lions 3-1
t4. Packers 3-1
t4. Chiefs 3-1
t4. Steelers 3-1
t4. 49ers 3-1


NFL's Top UNDER Teams Heading Into Week 5:

1. Cardinals 4-0
t2. Cowboys 3-1
t2. Broncos 3-1
t2. Patriots 3-1
t2. Giants 3-1
t2. Seahawks 3-1
7. Redskins 2-1
t8. 14 teams tied at 2-2

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Patriots' TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis.
Gronk is still listed as very Questionable for Thursday's game vs. Colts.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51

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Colts' WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) has been ruled OUT for Week 5 at Patriots.
Pointspread: Pats -10
Total: 51

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TNF - Colts at Patriots
Tony Mejia

Indianapolis at New England (-10, 51), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The Patriots bounced back from a loss in Jacksonville where they looked inferior on both sides of the ball by stomping out Miami’s illusions on Sunday.

For the second straight season, the Patriots have started 2-2, which has welcomed in the naysayers and attracts those eager to sprinkle dirt prematurely on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the most successful football franchise we’ve seen this century.

The months after losing to Philadelphia in Super Bowl have been filled with drama, acrimony and speculation over trade talk and the potential retirement of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. There have been no answers over why Malcolm Butler was scratched against the Eagles or why other popular players weren’t brought back. After Matt Patricia’s Detroit defense dominated New England on Sunday night in Week 3, all the noise started up again.

The Patriots needed to handle business last week to throw on the noise-canceling headphones, officially putting the past in the rear-view mirror now that we’re a month in and games are the primary focus.

New England avoided hearing all about how the sky is falling by dominating the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in a game they entered in danger of falling three games behind the pace in the AFC East had they lost. Instead, they scored the game’s first 38 points, breaking things open in the second quarter behind a pair of Tom Brady touchdown tosses and a James White TD run, one of two scores on the day. Rookie RB Sony Michel supplied the exclamation point with a 10-yard fourth-quarter TD run and wound up with 112 yards on 25 carries. He’s carved out a major role, which is fitting since September ended with the emergence of a new cast of characters.

Beyond Michel’s emergence, Cordarrelle Patterson rattled off the big catch-and-run that was representative of exactly what the Patriots hoped he’d bring to the table with his blazing speed. Josh Gordon debuted and contributed. Even though he’s still working his way back from a hamstring injury, the attention he commands makes him an effective decoy even when he’s not getting the ball. Former Colts first-round pick Phillip Dorsett scored for the second time this season, joining Chris Hogan and White with multiple receiving touchdowns. Gronk found the end zone first to open the season but hasn’t scored since and is dealing with an ankle issue but was cleared to play on Thursday morning.

With Julian Edelman also returning from suspension to make his season debut, there’s no longer a responsible way to say that Brady lacks weapons. There may be new faces in play, but the argument can be made that Gordon’s acquisition gives him his most talented receiver since Randy Moss, while Patterson gives him his fastest target.

It’s easy to write that we should all forget about “Deflategate” as a driving force here, but there may still be some residue in play.

Although this is only the second meeting between these teams since the accusation that New England’s quarterback conspired to doctor footballs in the 2014-15 AFC Championship Game was levied, that’s ancient history now.

Consider who is involved here. Bill Belichick is a known grudge-holder. Brady doesn’t need a reason to run up a score, but he’s long been among the NFL’s most competitive performers and had to serve a four-game suspension in ’16. He hasn’t seen the Colts since. This will also be the first time the Colts come into Foxborough since the scandal, so you’re likely to see a fan base that scans the internet for slights to pack a little extra for an old accuser.

Indianapolis is far removed from the days where it could be counted among New England’s threats. The Colts are still bringing Andrew Luck back after missing all of last season, but he looked more like his old self in Sunday’s OT loss despite losing T.Y. Hilton to an in-game injury. Luck rallied the Colts from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit despite working with the likes of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and newcomers at tight end (Eric Ebron, Mo Alie-Cox) and running back (Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins).

Before Luck was injured, he was handing off to the legendary Frank Gore. He’s now working with a pair of rookies, who despite their talent, haven’t made life any easier from a continuity standpoint. This will be a learning experience for many of the Colts, who will be going through a short week situation – on the road, no less – for the first time.

Indianapolis is expected to be missing as many as seven starters and will be entering a venue where sympathy will be hard to find. Check out the injury report below for details. There’s a chance that we could see showers throughout this game and the potential for wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour exist, which could work to the Colts’ benefit in slowing New England down. Luck is 0-5 against Brady.

Indianapolis Colts
Season win total: 7.5 (Over +110, Under -130)
Odds to win AFC South: 7/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 45/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

New England Patriots
Season win total: 11 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC East: 1/4 to 1/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/2 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 8/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened the regular season a 1-to-8 favorite to win the AFC East, which suggests an 88.9 percent chance of continuing their dominant run of 14 division titles in 15 years. Although the Dolphins got off to a great start and went up two games, New England's odds never really wavered, moving to 1/4 (80%) before improving following the weekend's conquest of the Miami. The Colts were the AFC South's biggest longshot to open the season at 4/1 and has seen that number reach 10/1 after a slow start.

The Patriots also opened as the AFC favorite (3/1) and the Super Bowl favorite (6/1) for the entire league. Kansas City (5/2) has supplanted the Pats as the AFC's top dog, both in the standings and for futures purposes. Only the L.A. Rams (9/5) and Kansas City (6/1) have better odds than New England (8/1) to win the Super Bowl. Indianapoilis has the same odds as the Browns (50/1) to win the AFC, better than only the Raiders (100/1), Jets (150/1) and Bills (500/1).

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Patriots were installed as a 8-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced but opened this week laying 10. There are a few 10.5's out there and we may see this dip to 9.5 in the offshore market. The total opened at 55.5 an quickly was bet down to 53/53.5 before settling in at 51. Team totals have been set up with the Patriots number at 31 and Indy's at 20.5.

New England is a massive -500 favorite on the money line, while Indianapolis will get you +400/+425 on your investment.

INJURY CONCERNS

Hilton's absence for Indianapolis will make the most noise but isn't the only issue that the eam will have to overcome. Starting corner Kenny Moore and backup Quincy Wilson will miss this game with concussions, while Nate Hairston (ankle) should play, possibly doing so only because the team is so thin in the secondary. Safety Clayton Geathers, one of the top tacklers, is questionable with a knee injury, while linebacker Darius Leonard is dealing with a knee issue.

Up front, Indy is hoping to have left tackle Anthony Castonzo make his season debut despite no practice time at all this season, so his availability is something to montior. Versatile Denzelle Good is out, away from the team due to the death of his brother earlier this week in South Carolina. Center Ryan Kelly, whose botched snap helped contribute to Sunday's loss, is questionable. Tight end Jack Doyle (hip) and RB Marlon Mack (hamstring) also remain sidelined.

The Patriots are in much better shape entering a game on a short week, but did have to put RB Rex Burkhead and rookie LB Ja'Whaun Bentley went on injured reserve. Tackle LaAdrian Waddle (illness) and corner Eric Rowe (groin) join Gronkowski (ankle) as being questionable. Defensive linemen Danny Shelton (elbow), Geneo Grissom (ankle) and Adam Butler (leg) are also all dinged up.

RECENT MEETINGS (New England 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS last eight; OVER 7-2-1)

10/18/15 New England 34-27 at Indianapolis (NE -9.5, 54.5)
1/18/15 New England 45-7 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 52)
11/16/14 New England 42-20 at Indianapolis (NE +3, 57)
1/11/14 New England 43-22 vs. Indianapolis (NE -7, 51)
11/18/12 New England 59-24 vs. Indianapolis (NE -10, 55)
12/4/11 New England 31-24 vs. Indianapolis (IND +20.5, 48.5)
11/21/10 New England 31-28 vs. Indianapolis (IND +4.5, 50)
11/15/09 Indianapolis 35-34 vs. New England (NE +1.5, 48.5)
11/2/08 Indianapolis 18-15 vs. New England (NE +6.5, 44)
11/4/07 New England 24-20 at Indianapolis (IND +5, 56.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag I'd ride the first score being a touchdown and will trust Indy's Adam Vinatieri to best his successor in New England, Stephen Gostkowski, for the game's longest field goal.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Patriots -240, Colts +200)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Patriots -330, Colts +270)
Team to score first: (Patriots -175, Colts +155)
Team to score last: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
First score: (Touchdown -175, FG/Safety +155)
First turnover: (None +900, Fumble +165, INT -210)
Highest scoring half: 1st -120, 2nd + OT +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -110, Under -110)
Team with longest TD scored: (Patriots -185, Colts +160)
Team with longest FG made: (Patriots -140, Colts +120)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +280, No conversion/No attempt -340)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -300, No conversion/No attempt +250)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +1400, No -2500)
Will there be a 0 or 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -250, No +210)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 6 currently has the Colts liisted as a 1-point road underdog at the Jets. The Patriots will be back in the national spotlight, hosting the Chiefs on Sunday night for a showdown that's going to be among the season's most hyped. New England has been made a 3-point favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WHITE HOT IN THE RED ZONE

Happy Thursday! As per tradition, we kick off the NFL week with a prop and for it, we head to New England where the Pats host the Colts. When you look at the box score from last week’s Patriots-Dolphins game, the running back who stands out is Sony Michel with his 25 carries, 112 yards, and a touchdown. But if you watched the game closely, you would’ve noticed that, when the game was still close, Michel left in the field in the red zone in favor of James White.

Michel did end the day with six red-zone touches and a touchdown, but four of those carries came when the Patriots were ahead by 17 or more points. It almost looked as if Bill Belichick wanted Michel to get his first-career touchdown. White, meanwhile, had two red-zone carries, scored on a 22-yard run, and had two red-zone targets and a receiving touchdown. Tom Brady trusts White and bettors should as well by backing him to score a touchdown at any time on Thursday Night Football.


PACKERS DOWN RECEIVERS

Green Bay has some issues at receiver with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) both on the wrong side of questionable ahead of Sunday’s game in Detroit. In addition, Jimmy Graham (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Davante Adams (calf) was limited — both are expected to play but clearly, neither is at 100 percent.

With skill players dropping around him like flies, life isn’t getting easier for a hobbled Aaron Rodgers whose numbers have been quite pedestrian so far this season as he has yet to break the 300-yard passing mark. This week, he plays an underrated Lions passing defense that ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 171.8 yards per game. Sunday is trending towards being a tough day for Rodgers and we’re leaning towards the Under on his passing yards total of 299.5.


FADING KEENUM

Through four games, Denver Broncos fans can’t be overly thrilled with the Case Keenum signing. He had an up-and-down opener with 329 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, but since then he hasn’t thrown a touchdown, has thrown three interceptions, and has passing yards totals of 222, 192, and 245 — and that 245 came against Kansas City, a team that had allowed opposing quarterbacks 375.6 passing yards in the first three weeks.

This week, Keenum and the Broncos head to New York to take on a Jets unit that ranks second in passing defense DVOA. It’s much easier to run against the Jets (16th in rushing defense DVOA) and the Broncos will likely plan to use a lot of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. We’re fading Keenum and taking the Under 260.5 on his passing yards total.


TRYING AGAIN WITH ALLEN

Last week, we suggested betting on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to score a touchdown at any time and, admittedly, it missed badly as the Bills were shut out in Green Bay. This week, Buffalo returns home to take on a tough Tennessee defense but we’re going out on a limb and making the same bet again this week and there are a few reasons why.

First, Allen is really the only rushing option in the red zone with eight carries inside the 20 on the season — the rest of the Bills (LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, and Marcus Murphy) combined only have five. Second, the Titans have given up yards to quarterbacks on the ground so far this season with Deshaun Watson running for 44 and Blake Bortles for 27. Finally, the odds for Allen to score a touchdown at any time were set at +700 last week and will likely be similar this week, meaning bettors can afford to miss this one a few times before it hits, and it will still turn a nice profit.


SHOOTOUT IN STEEL CITY

If you like shootouts, look no further than the Atlanta-Pittsburgh game on Sunday that has a total that opened at 55 and has since been bet up to 57.5. Both teams are stacked on offense and hurting on defense, meaning points should come early and often. Oddsmakers are expecting huge games from just about everyone, but Pittsburgh tight end Vance MacDonald might not be getting the respect he deserves on the props market.

Since his debut in Week 2, MacDonald has been an important piece of the Steelers’ offense with lines of 3-26-0, 4-112-1, and 5-62-0. He’s also received a steady five targets each week and is running a pass route on 80.6 percent of his snaps, the highest rate of any tight end in the NFL. He’s one of the few players who doesn’t have an inflated total for Sunday and we’re liking MacDonald to go over his Over 3.5 receptions total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: UNDER 56 -110

Free Play on Georgia State vs Troy under 56 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Oct 04 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Troy
Play on: UNDER 56 -110

FREE PLAY on Georgia State/Troy under 56 -110