1-6-09

[Mr. IWS]

Ethan Law | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
266 Tulsa -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 265 Ball St.
Analysis:

Note: To my full Season Subscribers, the Syndicate plays usually are not counted towards Ethan?s record each week of the season, as they separate and apart from my own plays. However, I will always state my full opinion and analysis on the syndicate play and possible disagreements if any I have on the selection. However, in this instance I felt this was the strongest play coming into the Bowl season and considering all three advisors agreed that this one was the best play on the board I am releasing as my highest personal play as well. For those new clients, the Syndicate consists of 18 investors and 3 consultants and each member of the group puts up $15,000 each as an initial investment each and every season and our betting ranges from $15,000 to $75,000 per selection. The Syndicates last game of the year was an easy winner on Washington State...and is currently on a 6-0 run.

BALL ST (12-1) at TULSA (10-3)

Syndicate play: The first and only play the syndicate collectively this entire Bowl season was TULSA -2.5 over Ball State. The line in this contest opened with Ball State laying 3 points and has since moved almost 6 points to its current number where Tulsa is now laying -2.5. The Syndicate is never shy of "fading" the public and this selection is no exception. After some considerable discussion the group decided to place its second largest wager of the season $65,000 wager on TULSA -1. Note: the line has since moved 1.5 points since we placed our selection, but we were comfortable laying up to 6 if needed

Ethan's thoughts: When we started the meeting, all three advisors had Tulsa as their top "value play' on the board this Bowl season. Both teams come into this game with their worst performances of the season. Tulsa basically threw away the Conference USA championship game with a whopping seven turnovers against East Carolina. Meanwhile, Ball State coughed up the ball 5 times on their way to an embarrassing loss to give away the MAC championship game. Tulsa comes into this country with the nations #1 offense, averaging 565 yards per game, with the Gus Malzahn offense striking a tremendous balance finishing seventh in the nation in rushing and seventh in passing. Ball State is also loaded with offensive firepower, finishing first in the MAC in scoring and total yards averaging 459 yards and close to 37 points per game. Its hard to forget last season when Tulsa took on Bowling Green in what was supposed to be a close fought game, and that turned into a 63-7 rout by Tulsa. They also took on one of the best teams in the country in Arkansas and played that one close with a 23-20 loss.

Add the fact that Ball State's head coach left the team for San Diego State and we have a team that not only lost two in a row, but one that has to try and stop the nations #1 offensive unit. Despite possessing the better defense, Tulsa should still control the line of scrimmage (like they have all season) giving enough protection for their offensive starts to get open as they pour on a boatload of points. Ball State will not be able to trade scores at this pace. Lay the small number.

Verdict: Ball State 24, Tulsa 41
SYNDICATE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR: TULSA -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK = 15-16




GMAC BOWL
Ladd-Peebles Stadium • Mobile, AL
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Tulsa over Ball St by 4
Poor Ball State. The Gonads enter tonight’s BCS Championship tablesetter
victimized by a Double Bubble Burst. Not only did BSU see its
hopes for a perfect 13-0 season and a MAC title blown to smithereens
in a stunning 42-24 loss to Buffalo, just days later the team saw head
coach (as in MAC Head Coach of the Year) Brady Hoke skip town after
engineering a deal to take over at San Diego State. WTF? We can see
bailing out on a program if you’re heading to a plum job (Rodriguez
bolting early to Michigan, for example) but the Aztecs? Must have
been the $700,000 per year offer from SDSU – almost twice what Hoke
was slated to earn in 2009 with Ball State. The Hokester put in six years
at Muncie and the program was fi nally coming to fruition under his
direction so his players – who will be led by new coach Stan Parrish
– must be extremely disappointed by recent events. Meanwhile, Tulsa
backers can only pray that Ball State doesn’t show up for this game
wearing white uniforms. East Carolina wore white in its recent C-USA
title bout with Tulsa and Hurricane QB David Johnson completed 5 of
his passes to the wrong team. Johnson also lost a fumble, accounting
for 6 of Tulsa’s 7 turnovers that doomed the Oklahomans, 27-24. Today’s
game looks to be a battle of wills between the ‘Nadsters’ defense that
led the MAC with 16 INTs, ranked #2 in points allowed and #3 in total
yards against a Golden Hurrricane attack that fi nished in the Top 10
nationally in points scored, yards rushing and yards passing. We’ll have
to side with a Tulsa no-huddle offense that set a conference scoring
record with 616 points over a Ball State ‘D’ that just got torched for
42 by the Bulls. That notion is bolstered by the fact that .846 or better
Bowl favorites off one loss exact are just 5-9 ATS (1-4 SU and ATS since
1998) – and that BSU faced the weakest schedule of ALL Bowlers this
year. Meanwhile, C-USA Bowl teams are 8-1 ATS versus an opponent
off a SU and ATS loss and 8-2 ATS when rested (3-1 SU and ATS under
current coach Graham). There’s no denying the Gonads fi eld a potent
offense of their own with QB Nate Davis and RB MiQuale Lewis but the
continuity that produced their 12-game win streak has been severely
disrupted. And even though both squads enter off losses, Tulsa did a
much better job of playing from behind against ECU. Adios, Ball State…
we’re backing the Big Breeze

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Teddy Covers

Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Fairway 20* GMAC Bowl Report: Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

NSA

CFB

20* Ball St +3
10* OVER 75

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Tim Trushel

20* - Tulsa under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

North Coast
Power Sweep
3*...tulsa -2'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

ATS Financial pick is out:

3 Unites on the UNDER 74 Ball St/Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

ATS Lock Club
4 Tulsa -3
4 Utah -5 (NCAA)
3 New Mexico -7.5

ATS Financial Package
3 under 74 Tulsa/Ball st.
3 lakers -6.5
3 Mich St. -10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Kelso College Bowls
5 unit Tulsa

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

ASA 5-STAR BOWL TOP GAME THIS WEEK!!!

5* TULSA -2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Stan Sharp | CFB Total Double-Dime Bet
266 Tulsa / 265 Ball St. Over 74.0 BetUS
Analysis: Stan is Betting BALL ST/TULSA OVER today. Stan feels that Vegas couldn't put this number high enough as Vegas put a number on this total that's too low. Stan feels both teams will score plenty and that the winning team will be in the upper 40's. With that said Stan expects 83 to 86 points in this game. TAKE BALL ST/TULSA OVER as STAN'S ODDSMAKER ERROR GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Marc Lawrence 17-1 ATS NBA:


Play On: Houston Rockets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

Lenny Del Genio | CBB Sides
double-dime bet730 Creighton -11.5 (-110) BetUS vs 729 Northern Iowa
Analysis: Play on Creighton at 8:00 ET.

Creighton is our #1 College Hoops Blowout of the Week.


Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet702 CHL 9.0 (-110) BetUS vs 701 BOS
Analysis: Play on Charlotte at 7:05 ET.
Charlotte is our NBA Upset Special.

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Total
double-dime bet710 OKL / 709 NYK Under 217.0 BetUS
Analysis: 15* Play Under New York/Oklahoma City at 8:05 ET.
Under NY/OK City is our 15* Non-Conference NBA Total of the Week.

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Sides
double-dime bet715 NOH 7.0 (-110) BetUS vs 716 LAL
Analysis: Play on New Orleans at 10:35 ET.
New Orleans is our 15* Revenge Game of the Week.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-6-09

indiancowboy

Unit Play. #719. Take Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 over Michigan State. (Tuesday @ 7pm est).

2-1 Yesterday:
Loyola Maryland +12.5 over Niagara (W)
Texas/Ohio State Under (W)
Sacramento Kings +4: (L)

Winning 9 of 13 Days in NBA (9-4)
Winning 4 of 5 Days in NBA (4-1)

Going for 4th Winning Football week out of 5 with Selection Today.

Let's have no fear and take the Buckeyes. After all, if their football team can cover against Texas and nearly win outright, maybe this program does have hope when they play the better teams in the nation - j/k. As per this game, we have many things that are working in our favor. First of all, Ohio State comes off a tough opening conference loss to Minnesota on the road. That was a game they were competitive most of the way, led at many points and fell short late in the second half. This is not to say they will win against Michigan State on the road today. But, it is today highlight the importance of this game if Ohio State does not want to start the year 0-2 and thus they will play with a sense of urgency. Michigan State is doing just fine. They are 2-0. They defeated both Northwestern and Minnesota by double-digits. But, note, that Ohio State is better this year than they were last year - and they lost last year to this team by 7 points. Thus, this team has revenge, has a great sense of urgency as they do not want to start the year 0-2, are on the bounce-back and Michigan State might end up coming out a little flat today as they come off two big road conference wins. I do worry about a late Michigan State run here but don't count Ohio State out when it comes to being competitive on the road. Remember, this team defeated ACC Miami of Florida who is a top 25 power ranking team outright on the road. Plus, Ohio State is a 10-2 team who is a top 45 ranked team that has defeated Notre Dame and Butler. This team is good. So what they didn't beat Tubby's boys - I think they can hang by single digits against Michigan State with revenge, coming off a conference loss and Michigan State being a bit over-valued and coming out a bit flat after two huge road conference wins - besides, they were within single digits last year with a younger crew than what they have this year.





4 Unit Play. #715. Take New Orleans Hornets +8 over Los Angeles Lakers (Tuesday @ 10:35pm est). It was either this selection or the Memphis Grizzlies today but I decided to take the 8 points rather than lay the 4 points. Both Memphis and New Orleans have revenge. But, New Orleans comes off a brutal loss to Denver by 2 points on the road. That is a game frankly they let get away and should have won. This game is different from the last two contests when they face the Lakers. This time, they have Peja back and New Orleans typically plays very well against L.A. on the road as compared to at home. The last two games against the Lakers were in NO and although the scores indicate a bit of a closer contest, the Lakers absolutely buried them. But, when NO goes on the road to play the Lakers, they play very well and more importantly - cover. Check out this amazing stat. What if I told you that the Lakers have covered the last 4 contests in New Orleans. But, New Orleans has covered the last 3 contests at Los Angeles. New Orleans is fairly good with revenge as you can take a look at the Portland game as an example when this team went on the road to defeat the Blazers outright with revenge. The Hornets dislike the Lakers. They are healthy now. They are getting 8 points in a game they could win outright as they come off a 2 point loss to Denver and are even more focused due to the bounce-back and have historically done very well at L.A. when it comes to ATS covers. The road team is 6-1 ATS over the last 7 meetings and the Underdog has covered the last 9 times between these two teams. We're Hornet fans today.




(Released early last Thursday): 3 Unit Play. #266. Take Tulsa PK over Ball State. (January 6th, 8pm eastern). Ball State had their perfect season hopes shattered as they were defeated in their own conference Championship by Buffalo. Ball sports an offense ranked 11th in the nation and 17th in points scored. Ball's defense is ranked 54th overall and 20th in points allowed. Yet, all that flew out the door when this team gave up 42 points to Buffalo as their previous highest was 24 points before that. Ball did beat Navy but outside that, they have not played anyone who I feel is a bowl worthy type opponent. Now, Tulsa has the #1 offense in the nation but a defense that is ranked 85th overall and 85th in points allowed. This team lost their last 4 of 5 covers and once they gave up 70 points to Houston on the road. Of course, Vegas made it hard for this team to cover after they had covered their first 6 of 7 contests. This team lost to East Carolina at home in their last contest. You have to look at attitude and motivation. After all, the way I am beginning to cap bowl games more than ever is through which team wants to be there, who has the better defense and who has the better running game. In essence, who controls both sides of the line – offense an defensively. But, this game is a bit different. I think that a team that had nearly a perfect season simply struggles to "get-up" for this game. I rank East Carolina very high and I think at the end of the day, Tulsa does well here. Remember, Tulsa has played a tougher schedule including East Carolina, and even Arkansas at home. "The perfect season" was irrelevant against Buffalo and I think that has deflated this team some and Tulsa is ripe here for the win as their offense can score early and often.