Thursday 10-11-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Week 6

Thursday
Eagles (2-3) @ Giants (1-4)— Both teams are struggling but Redskins lead NFC East at 2-2, so division is still up for grabs. Eagles lost last two games by total of five points; all six of their games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Iggles are 0-2 on road, giving up 27-26 points; under Pederson, Philly is 2-6 as road favorites. Last two games, Giants ran ball 31 times, threw 78 passes- their OL doesn’t open up holes for rookie RB Barkley. Big Blue allowed 33 points in each of last two games, losing LW on 63-yard FG at gun. Philly won seven of last eight series games; last five were all decided by 5 or fewer points; Iggles won four of last five visits here- last three were all decided by five points. Since 2013, Giants are 8-10 as home underdogs, 0-2 this year.

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AJAYI TEARS ACL

Philadelphia running back Jay Ajayi was diagnosed with a torn ACL late Monday afternoon and is out for the season. This is brutal news for the Eagles’ backfield as they’re already without Corey Clement (quad) and Darren Sproles (hamstring), though neither has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game at the New York Giants.

The injuries at running back likely mean that the Eagles will need to rely a bit more on Carson Wentz, both with his arm and his legs. Although he has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games, it’s hard to back him through the air because of how terrible the Eagles’ offensive line has been. Wentz has been sacked 12 times in his three games played already this season and seemed to be under pressure nearly every time he dropped back against Minnesota on Sunday. Even though the Giants don’t have a great pass rush, we still expect Wentz to see pressure and to be forced out of the pocket quite a bit. We’re going to back the Over on his rushing total for Thursday night.

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Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 11

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
NY actually covered both meetings LY, and Eagles no covers last four since Atlanta opener. Giants “under” 9-3 last 11 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

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CLEMENT PRACTICING

Eagles running back Corey Clement (quad) practiced on Tuesday and is expected to return on Thursday night after missing the last two games. His return is a huge boost to a backfield that just lost Jay Ajayi for the season and is still without Darren Sproles and Clement will likely share touches with Wendall Smallwood against the Giants.

It’s tough to predict whether Clement or Smallwood will get more work on Thursday night. Looking back to Week 3 — where Clement and Smallwood handled the backfield while Ajayi was out — we see that Clement out-snapped (45 to 29) and out-touched (19 to 13) Smallwood, but Smallwood was more productive (91 total yards to 75). Clement had four red-zone carries, while Smallwood had three red-zone carries, a red-zone target, and scored a touchdown.

For this week, we’re treating the Eagles’ backfield as a 50-50 split and, in a situation like this, we suggest backing the bet with greater value. When the full prop slate opens later in the week, we’ll be looking to take the Over for whoever has the lowest rushing yards total between Clement and Smallwood.

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TNF - Eagles at Giants
Tony Mejia

Philadelphia (-3, 44) at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

No team suffered a more painful loss than the Giants in Week 5, having battled back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to grab a late lead at Carolina before Graham Gano stepped in with an improbable game-winning 63-yard field goal.

The aftermath of the disappointing loss also included WR Odell Beckham Jr. addressing a controversial interview he did with ESPN in which he essentially threw all of his teammates under the bus as hip-hop artist and fellow New Orleans native Lil’ Wayne nodded sympathetically. He questioned the passion and heart of teammates and didn’t take up for quarterback Eli Manning, responding “I don’t know” when asked if the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer was to blame for the team’s offensive struggles.

He could’ve accurately responded that the entire offensive line was to blame and been similarly criticized but the fact is even doing an interview of that nature barely a month into the regular season is a bad look. Unapologetic, Beckham took credit for inspiring teammates to what was the team’s best performance in weeks.

His tone deaf stance has served one purpose for New York however, deflecting attention from the Giants essentially facing what feels like a must-win at home as the defending Super Bowl champs come in for the first of two regular-season meetings. Instead of answering questions about pressure and a short week, the Giants have had a noisy distraction to suppress their real issues. They’ve also been handed a ready-made scapegoat should this Thursday night contest not go their way.

New York has been a major disappointment in spite of a coaching change that brought the highly respected Pat Shurmur into run the show. Although No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s got just 100-yard rushing game under his belt. The league’s longest run of games between scoring 30 points finally ended, but it took a trick play and some fourth-quarter magic to get the job done.

The Eagles visit on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Minnesota in which they fell behind 20-3 and saw their comeback fall short. Running back Jay Ajayi was injured in the loss, but the revelation he tore his ACL was a nasty surprise to pile on to a disappointing start on the heels of the team’s first Super Bowl victory.

Nick Foles was at the controls for Philly’s Thursday night victory over Atlanta to open the season, but that game put a suspect offense on display from Day 1. Carson Wentz’s Week 3 return following a disappointing loss at Tampa Bay produced a victory over Indianapolis when a Hail Mary went unanswered. Still, the Eagles have remained flat despite regaining his services. WR Alshon Jeffery just rejoined the fold after his own injury woes and the newly signed Jordan Matthews is building chemistry with Wentz, so there’s no question the Eagles can be optimistic as they attempt to get back to .500.

Philadelphia has scored 23 or fewer points in every game this season and has been involved exclusively in one-possession games, so finding the Giants on the schedule might be a welcome sight. The Eagles have dominated New York over the past few seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. If you ago all the way back to 2008, Philly has prevailed in 15 of 19, although the last five have all been one-possession games as well.

Barkley, a native of the Bronx, has scored in each of his first two home dates and will be looking for his first win at Met Life Stadium in addition to his first win against a divisional foe after losing in Dallas a few weeks back. Beckham, whose miscue on a punt return proved costly and balanced out his TD pass and work at receiver against Carolina, has caught 50 passes for over 700 yards and six touchdowns against the Giants. He’s had success, but his team hasn’t.

That sounds familiar. New York will look to reverse that trend as it seeks its first home win since the 2017 regular-season finale against Washington last New Year’s Eve. The Giants lost their first four home games last season and is now 2-8 over their last 10 at Met Life Stadium, covering just three times.

Philadelphia will be looking to avoid what would be its third straight loss, something it hasn’t experienced since dropping five in a row from Nov 20-Dec. 18 in 2016.

Philadelphia Eagles
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East: 10/11 to 10/11
Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 13/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1

New York Giants
Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC East: 15/1 to 12/1
Odds to win NFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Given how poorly the entire division fared last week and how wide open things are through the first five games, it's most interesting that the Eagles were such a heavy favorite to win the NFC East again. The Eagles opened the season as a 5-to-7 favorite to repeat as divisional champs after last year's 13-3 finish saw them clear their closest pursuers by a full four games. New York finished last in '17 but opened as an appealing 8-to-1 to win the NFC East last April and were down to 5-to-1 to open Week 1. The Eagles remain (10/11) roughly even money to finish atop the division despite trailing Washington by a half-game.

Only New Orleans (9/2), Minnesota (7/1) and Chicago (12/1) have better odds than these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl than Philly. Only Arizona and San Francisco (1,000/1) have worse odds than the Giants.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Eagles were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week but have been laying a field goal all week across the board with very little movement. The total opened at 45 but dipped steadily and is most widely available at 44 with a few 43.5s out there.

Philadelphia is at -150 on the money line at most spots with the wager of a buck on New York to win straight up netting a return of +125 to +135 depending on the shop. The Eagles' team total is set at 23.5 while the Giants are available at 20.5 at most shops.

INJURY CONCERNS

Lane Johnson, Philly's standout right tackle, has practiced and will play, alleviating this game's biggest question mark.

Ajayi’s injury means that the Eagles lose their primary back, taking away the battering ram concept that served them so well last season since they already had LeGarrette Blount when they added him from Miami. Blount is in Detroit now and Darren Sproles is still dealing with a hamstring issue, so look for the trend of using the short passing game as an extension of the run to continue here with Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood doing the bulk of the work.

Philadelphia also has issues on defense, having ruled out DT Haloti Ngata (calf) and safety Corey Graham (hamstring), whose absence could result in a big day for the passing game if Manning is accurate and gets time to throw. Top Giants pass-rusher Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York, so its defense has a chance to bounce back after surrendering 33 points each of the last two weeks and recording just six sacks all season while doubling as one of the NFL’s worst teams in stopping the run.

Giants backup tight end Rhett Ellison is questionable with a foot injury, which is a big deal since starter Evan Engram (knee) has been ruled out. WR Russell Shepard (neck) won’t play either.

RECENT MEETINGS (Philadelphia 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS last 12; OVER 8-4)

12/17/17 Philadelphia 34-29 at N.Y. Giants (NYG +7.5, 40.5)
9/24/17 Philadelphia 27-24 vs. N.Y. Giants (NYG +5, 43)
12/22/16 Philadelphia 24-19 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
11/6/16 N.Y. Giants 28-23 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -3, 42.5)
1/3/16 Philadelphia 35-30 at N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 51)
10/19/15 Philadelphia 27-7 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 49.5)
12/28/14 Philadelphia 34-26 at N.Y. Giants (PK'em, 52)
10/12/14 Philadelphia 27-0 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 51)
10/27/13 N.Y. Giants 15-7 at Philadelphia (NYG +5.5, 49)
10/6/13 Philadelphia 36-21 at N.Y. Giants (PHI +1.5, 53.5)
12/30/12 N.Y. Giants 42-7 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -6.5, 44.5)
9/30/12 Philadelphia 19-17 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 46.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at Westgate, I'd ride the first score being a field goa for the value and like the under on Barkley rush yardage since the Giants move him around and have only given him over 15 carries twice thus far and he hasn't topped the 50 yards rushing in either of the last two weeks.

First score: (Touchdown -150, FG/Safety +130)
Carson Wentz passing yards (292.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Carson Wentz TD passes (2): Over -125, 2nd + OT +100)
Zach Ertz receiving yards (67.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Eli Manning completions (24.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Eli Manning TD passes (1.5): (Over +110, Under -130)
Saquon Barkley rush yards (60.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
QB sacks (4.5): (Over -130, Under +110)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 7 currently has the Eagles liisted as a 3-point home favorite against the Panthers in another big NFC game. The Giants will be back in the national spotlight, visiting the Falcons for a Monday night showdown that realistically looms as an elimination game since both teams have gotten off to such slow starts. Atlanta has been made a 3.5-point favorite.

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Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 6 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 39-17
Against the Spread 24-31-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 29-27
Against the Spread 23-32-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-19-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
San Diego State (+13.5, ML +400) at Boise State, 19-13
Northwestern (+10.5, ML +330) at Michigan State, 29-19
Iowa State (+10, ML +300) at Oklahoma State, 48-42

The largest favorites to cover
Memphis (-36) vs. Connecticut, 55-14
Georgia (-26) vs. Vanderbilt, 41-13
Mississippi (-23.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 70-21
Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest, 63-3

Top 25 Notes

-- The Red River Rivalry lived up to expectations on Saturday afternoon, although it didn't look like it at first. Texas shot out to a 45-24 lead at one point over Oklahoma, but Kyler Murray and the Sooners didn't give up. They closed the lead to 14 points with 8:28 left in regulation, and they tied it up 45-45 with 2:38 to go. However, true freshman PK Cameron Dicker would be the hero from 40 yards out, sending the Longhorns to a 48-45 victory. The Longhorns are now 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings in this series.

-- Clemson rolled to a 63-3 victory on the road against Wake Forest, as side bettors of the Tigers never even broke a sweat. The Tigers fired out to a 28-0 lead at halftime, and they didn't take their foot off the gas peddle at any point in the second half. Clemson had their quarterback back from injury, but it was the run game that propelled them in this one. Three backs had exactly 10 carries each, and all three ran for at least 128 yards while combining for six rushing scores. If only they could all be this easy, right?

-- Alabama hit the road for Arkansas favored by five touchdowns. It was another ho-hum effort, as they shot out to a 41-14 lead by halftime, and they held a 65-24 lead after a touchdown at 1:59. The line switched back and forth several times in the fourth quarter. It appeared the Crimson Tide would get the backdoor cover, but it was the Razorbacks who were doling out the bad beat with a rushing touchdown with just :13 seconds remaining.

-- North Carolina State picked up the victory over Boston College, 28-23, as the Wolfpack remaining a perfect 5-0 SU. In addition, the 'under' is 3-1 so far through four games at home. Their unbeaten streak will certainly be put to the test in two weeks when they play at Clemson after a bye. The Wolfpack are averaging 35.3 PPG through four games against FBS opponents, so the Tigers will certainly be on upset alert. There was a bad beat in this one, too (see below).

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Miami-Florida was involved in a dogfight, and it appeared initially that they were going to be run out of their own building by struggling Florida State. The Hurricanes ended up erasing a 27-7 deficit to stun the Seminoles 28-27. After an 0-3 ATS start, the Seminoles are 2-1 ATS with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three. ... Virginia Tech was in it for a half against Notre Dame, down just 17-16 at the break. The Irish fired out of the room in the third quarter for a 31-16 lead and they never looked back, winning it 45-23 to keep their playoff hopes going.

-- Michigan State was unable to avoid the Northwestern upset bug, something their brethren from Ann Arbor narrowly avoided last week. The Wildcats have covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 2-0 ATS against Michigan teams. ... Nebraska suffered another loss, as Wisconsin added to their misery. The Cornhuskers are 0-5 SU, but at least they covered for the first time in five tries. The 'over' has hit in each of their past three. ... Indiana was a thorn in the side of Ohio State again, as the Hoosiers were good for 26 points at the Horseshoe, and they entered the fourth quarter down just 35-26. The Buckeyes gained a little bit of separation for the 49-26 win, but it wasn't as lopsided as that score indicates.

-- Oklahoma was upset by Iowa State Iast year, and this season the Cyclones upended another team from the Sooner State. Oklahoma State suffered the 48-42 setback at home in a game which had a total of just 55.5 points. It was 30-21 at halftime, so 'over' bettors certainly enjoyed the game no matter the result of the line. ... West Virginia might be carrying the flag for the Big 12 now that Oklahoma suffered their first loss of the season. The Mountaineers topped doormat Kansas for the 38-22 win. It wasn't quite a bad beat, although somewhere somebody lost a teaser when the Jayhawks scored with :00 on the clock.

-- Washington struggled with winless UCLA, winning just 31-24 despite being favored on the road by three touchdowns. The Bruins slipped to 0-5 SU, and they're just 2-3 ATS. Those two covers against against Top 25 teams Oklahoma and Washington, with the 'over' cashing in each outing. ... Stanford was going to be in trouble with Heisman hopeful RB Bryce Love (ankle) sidelined, but everyone still expected the Cardinal to get it done against Utah. The Utes were desperate for a win, however, looking to keep their hopes alive in the Pac-12 South, and they were able to post a 40-21 victory. Not only did they win for the first time in three games, they covered for the first time against an FBS team.

-- Kentucky suffered their first loss of the season at Texas A&M in a surprisingly defensive battle, 20-14. This one went to overtime and there was a bad beat involved in the result of this one, too. ... Florida introduced the No. 15 of Tim Tebow into their ring of honor at 'The Swamp'. No way they were losing to LSU, right? The Tigers were winning and covering with 11:14 to go, 19-14. However, Florida took the lead for good 20-19 with 8:48 to go, and they added a pick-six for good measure, a game-changer for total bettors (see below).

Bad Beats

-- There were plenty of bad beats, and they all involved big schools, too. We mentioned Arkansas covering with :13 remaining, but reallly, the Crimson Tide side bettors were only winning for a minute or two, so was it really THAT bad of a beat?

-- In Gainesville, total bettors (44.5) looked to be in good shape with the Gators up 20-19 with less than two minutes to go and LSU deep in their own territory. However, the Tigers were picked off by Brad Stewart who housed a 25-yard interception for score to flip the 'under' to an 'over'.

-- Florida Atlantic entered their game against OId Dominion at 0-5 ATS. The Owls were favored by two touchdowns at most shops, and it was a topsy-turvy fourth quarter. ODU cut FAU's lead to five, 32-27, with 12:13 left in regulation. The Owls scored twice to go up 46-27 with 6:43 to go. The Monarchs appeared to give their side bettors a backdoor cover, but FAU rattled off a 44-yard run by stud RB Devin Singletary for the 52-33 win and cover with 2:17 to go.

-- In that Kentucky-Texas A&M game in College Station, the Wildcats forced overtime at 14-14, catching five. They missed the field goal on their first possession of OT, so surely the Aggies would boot a field goal and Wildcats side bettors would cover the five, right? A&M scored a TD and dished out a bad beat, extra-time style with a 20-14 win.

-- On Thursday, the side and total were involved in a bad beat. Georgia State hit a touchdown and two-point conversion with 1:46 to go, cutting the lead of Troy to 37-20 and that's how it ended. The line ended up a push at most shops thanks to the miracle two-point play, and that also flipped the total (55.5) from an under to an over.

-- The New Mexico-UNLV game was scoreless through the first quarter, so 'under' (63) bettors were feeling pretty good. UNM had a 29-point outburst in the second, but still led just 36-0 heading to the fourth quarter. The Runnin' Rebels scored a total of just seven points in the first 55-plus minutes of play, but notched a meaningless TD at 4:43 to go, inching the total just over (63) and that's how the game finished.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 11

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TEXAS TECH (3 - 2) at TCU (3 - 2) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
TCU is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GA SOUTHERN (4 - 1) at TEXAS ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF

Week 7

Trend Report

Thursday, October 11

Texas Tech @ Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games on the road
Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas Christian

Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Texas Christian is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games

Georgia Southern @ Texas State
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Texas State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas State's last 6 game

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 7

Thursday, October 11

Texas Tech @ TCU

Game 105-106
October 11, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
93.205
TCU
103.318
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 10
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 7
61
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(-7); Under

Georgia Southern @ Texas State

Game 107-108
October 11, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
76.733
Texas State
61.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 15 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 17 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+17 1/2); Over

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NCAAF

Week 7

Thursday’s games
TCU lost two of last three games; they were minus-9 in turnovers in those games, and were held to 16-17 points in last two games. Horned Frogs are 2-10-1 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorites. Texas Tech scored 46 ppg in its last three games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Road team won last three Texas Tech-TCU games; Tech won two of last three visits here, with both wins by 3 points, the loss was 82-27 in ’14. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Big X home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season.

Georgia Southern won both its games with Texas State 37-13/28-25, with last meeting in ’15. Eagles are 4-1 this season, 4-0 vs spread; their only loss was 38-7 at Clemson- this is GSU’s first road game since then. GSU covered only one of last five games as road favorites. Texas State is 0-4 vs I-A teams, with only one loss by less than 10 points; Bobcats gave up 327 rushing yards LW is 42-27 home loss to ULL. Under Withers, TSU is 3-8 vs spread as home underdogs. Three of four Georgia Southern games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 11

TEXAS TECH at TCU...TCU 2-11-1 as Fort Worth chalk since 2016, 11-21-1 overall vs. spread since 2016. Tech 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as visiting dog.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at TROY STATE...GS 5-0 vs. spread in 2018, 7-1 last 8 since late 2017. Also covered last four as dog. Troy 4-0-1 vs. line last five this season and has covered last 4 in 2018 but is 0-4 vs. line last 4 vs. Eagles.
Georgia Southern, based on team and series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Oct 11 '18, 7:05 PM in 4h
NHL | Sharks vs Rangers
Play on: Sharks -143 at BMaker

Free Play on Sharks -143

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Georgia Southern -16½ -110 at YouWager

Free Play on Georgia Southern -16½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Texas State
Play on: Texas State +18 -105 at Bovada

FREE PLAY on Texas State +18 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Oct 11 '18, 7:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Texas Tech vs TCU
Play on: TCU -7 -110 at Bovada

1* Free Play on TCU -7 -110