Service Plays Saturday 10/20/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

6-Unit Play. Take #400 Ole Miss +3.5 over Auburn (Saturday, October 20th at 12:00 PM ET)

Take Ole Miss ATS as my 6-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and this Rebels team showed that they never give up as they came from behind last week to beat Arkansas. The Rebels are the superior passing team here at home Saturday completing 69.8% of their passes at home this season and for 393 pypg. The Rebels have averaged 550.9 yards per game overall this season and 41.6 ppg this season. The Tigers have allowed 400.8 ypg on the road this season and they have only had the ball for an average of 24 33 seconds minutes on the road this season meaning their opponents have dominated them in time of possession. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing a team with a winning record. Play Ole Miss ATS as we move to 16-4 with my top football picks rated 6-Units or higher this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week

4% Appalachian State -26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Double Plays:
Utah St. 15
Oklahoma -8
NC St +17.5

Single Plays:
Kentucky -12
Temple -3.5
Fla. Atlantic -3
Purdue +12
Buff +1.5
Navy +11
Arkansas -7
C. Mich +3.5
UCLA -9.5
UAB -2
Utah -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ultra Sports

CFB:

332 Michigan St Spartans +7'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maxdalury

NCAAF: Northwestern at Rutgers
Rutgers +20.5 @ 1.91 odds for risk of 5 units

NCAAF: Virginia at Duke
Virginia +7 @ 1.91 odds for risk of 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Virgobbi Sports
3* Washington St ML

[Knuckle Sandwich]

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA WEEK #8 - Final Report

7-UNIT TOPS
TEMPLE -3 vs cincy (12pm)
AUBURN -3 (-125) at miss (12pm)
MIZZOU -9.5 vs memphis (4pm)
PURDUE +14 (-120) vs ohio st. (7:30pm)
WASH ST. -3 vs oregon (7:30pm)
UTAH -7 vs usc (8pm)

4-UNIT STRONGS
ARMY -8 vs miami, oh. (12pm)
MICHIGAN -7 at mich st. (12pm)
NAVY +12 vs houston (3:30pm)
NEBRASKA -4 vs minny (3:30pm)
KENTUCKY -11.5 vs vandy (7:30pm)
NEVADA +3 at hawaii (11:59pm)

*All Lines from VI Consensus 10/17/18 - 11pm
**All times Eastern
---------------------------------------------------------------------
23-9 (+74.6 Units) All NCAA Last 3 Weeks (As posted here)
11-4-1 (+49.5 Units) All 7-Units & Up This Season (As posted here)
1-0 (+11.0) HYDRAS This Season (As posted here)
8-3-1 (+51.7 Units) HYDRAS Last Season (As posted here)
(This was released to clients on Wednesday night)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #314 Temple (-3) over Cincinnati (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 20)
The Owls have been hot. This is a very experienced team and right now there isn't anyone in the AAC team that I don't think they can beat. Cincinnati has been sneaky good, but I think they have been playing over their heads a bit.

1-Unit Play. Take #317 North Carolina (+10) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 20)
This is too many points for Syracuse to be laying out. There is no telling how they are going to respond coming out of their bye week after two disappointing, emotionally draining losses prior to the week off. They lost in the final seconds at Clemson and then lost in overtime at Pittsburgh. And they've had to sit with that taste in their mouths the last two weeks. North Carolina had all kinds of issues early in the season with suspensions. But they are now at full strength and they have a lot of work to do is they have a prayer at finding the postseason. I think this will be a back-and-forth game between two high scoring offenses. I do expect Syracuse to win. But they have been so bad over the last 15 years that expecting a blowout is a little optimistic.

1-Unit Play. Take #356 Arkansas (-7) over Tulsa (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 20)
Arkansas are a bunch of losers. They are probably the biggest bunch of losers in the country, repeatedly blowing double-digit leads to inferior opponents. There is absolutely no doubt that this team should be 3-4 at the very least. And after six straight losses and back-to-back terrible home losses new head coach Chad Morris desperately needs something to go right and desperately needs a win, lest he lose his fan base before his tenure has even begun. Tulsa cannot match up with SEC size and speed. And if the Golden Hurricane win this game, or really even if they make it close, then Morris should be fired right away. Tulsa has lost nine of its last 10 games and, frankly, only a couple of those losses have been close. Arkansas should be able to steal a win here.

1-Unit Play. Take #365 Arizona (+9.5) over UCLA (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I think this is too many points for UCLA to be laying out. Yes, they are coming off a blowout win and things look to be pointed in the right direction. But they are still just 1-5 on the season and they have been outgained in four of their last five games. Arizona has done well against other Pac-12 bottom feeders, beating Cal and Oregon State. They also hung around to cover against USC. I think they can do the same here. I know it looks like Khalil Tate may not play for Arizona. But he has been a poor fit for Kevin Sumlin's system anyway and I think that the public and the books are overreacting to his injury situation. UCLA wins, but I think this will be a close game between two shaky, bad teams.

3-Unit Play. Take #374 Florida State (-10) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Willie Taggart's debut season at FSU has not gone well. But Florida State is showing signs of life. It was always going to take a little while for Taggart to overhaul the system in Tallahassee. But Florida State has enough talent to overwhelm teams like Wake Forest. FSU has had two weeks to prep for this game. And unlike the NFL, I think that a week off can actually be a good thing for college teams and they can come out strong after a bye. The Seminoles have won four straight home games in this series by 11, 40, 52 and 31 points. They have won those four home games by a combined score of 143-20. I think we'll see another blowout here against a Wake Forest team that lost by 60 points the last time they took the field.

3-Unit Play. Take #380 Nebraska (-3.5) over Minnesota (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
The Cornhuskers are 0-6. They haven't won a game yet. But they are still favored in this game. That's a giant red flag. This team is still working its way through Scott Frost's first season. And everyone knew it would take a while for Frost to get the players in Lincoln that fit his system. But things are starting to pick up. They nearly knocked off Northwestern on the road last week and played Wisconsin tough beore that, only getting outgained by 15 yards. And they had outgained three of their four opponents prior to that. Of Nebraska's six losses, four of them have been by a touchdown or less. I think that they are poised to get their first win of the season here. Minnesota has its own issues. They've dumped three straight and really haven't been competitive in any of those games. They have also been horrible on the road, losing their last four road games by 16, 29, 39 and 23 points. I think Frost and the Huskers will finally break through.

7-Unit Play. Take #381 Connecticut (+34) over South Florida (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
At first glance this one looks like a total and complete mismatch. And, frankly, the problem with using a big number like this for your biggest bet of the weekend is that if it loses it will lose really, really badly. But scared money don't make money. And I think that this is a really good spot for the underdog. Randy Edsall is not a bad coach. Not at all. And he has had two weeks to prepare his team as they head south. So I expect some effort from this team. South Florida is undefeated. They look like one of the class teams in the AAC. However, if you really deep dive into the schedules that these teams have played it become apparent quickly that their records and this spread is not a true reflection of what they've done this year. If we flipped these schedules this year, I think that Connecticut would be 3-3 and South Florida would be, at best, 2-4. The Huskies have played Central Florida, at Boise State, at Syracuse, Cincinnati and at Memphis. That's brutal! Those are probably five of the top 35 teams in the country. South Florida's toughest game was against Georgia Tech. That's it. A 3-4 Tech team is the toughest competition they've gone up against. And the Bulls won that game despite being completely outplayed and outgained by nearly 200 yards. Beyond that South Florida has played a bunch of losers and has been less than impressive doing so. They beat a bad Tulsa team by one last week, 25-24. They only beat Massachusetts by 16 and only beat Elon - an FCS team - by 20. Truly, their second-best win might be over a 20-13 decision over East Carolina in a game where the Bulls were outgained by 120 yards. Yeah, they won at Illinois. Big deal. Illinois was up 19-7 in that game before being outscored 18-0 in the fourth quarter. And Illinois is terrible in the same way the Huskies are terrible. Look, there is nothing to like about Connecticut. They are a fringe FBS team and they are pretty awful. But South Florida is not a Top 20 team. They haven't done anything to gain that distinction and I think that this spread is probably about 13 points heavier than it should be. Further, let's take a look at recent history in this series. South Florida only beat Connecticut by 17 last season. And that was a better USF team playing a worse UConn squad. The nine meetings before that were decided by 15, 8, 3, 3, 7, 6, 3, 2 and four points. Only two meetings between these two teams in the last decade have been decided by more than 10 points! The average MOV between these two is just 6.4 points. Now USF has to win by 35+?!?!
South Florida has a huge game with Houston on deck. And they are coming off a primetime Friday night game. Smack in the middle is this game against a rested Connecticut team that I believe is better than its numbers suggest. This is a quintessential letdown/look ahead situation. South Florida will win this game relatively easily. But I don't think that they are five touchdowns better than Connecticut in a vacuum. So when you throw in the situational factors here I think that makes taking these points the play. And if Connecticut loses 40-3 (which, again, is a pathetic final and still barely covers that spread) then so be it. But that doesn't mean that this isn't as good of a spot as we are going to find for an underdog all season.

1-Unit Play. Take #390 Clemson (-17.5) over N.C. State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Clemson has circled the wagons. The last time they took the field they won by 60 over Wake Forest. They won't do that to N.C. State. But I think this game will be a blowout.

3-Unit Play. Take #406 Utah (-7) over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Utah is a really, really tough place to play. And USC has not played well there since the Utes have joined the Pac-12. In fact, the home team has really been the money play in this series, winning five straight. Utah has been better than the Trojans the last several years. They have only split the last four meetings but they 100 percent should've beaten a better USC team last year, blowing a 20-point lead in a one-point loss. They will want some revenge. This is not a very good USC team and I think that if Utah is good enough to go on the road and bludgeon Stanford 40-21 - the same Stanford team that dominated USC in a 17-3 win - then Utah is good enough to handle the Trojans.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

2-Unit Play. Take #334 Purdue (+12) over Ohio State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
I will take the points in this game. Ohio State has been terrible against the spread. This team is overrated. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The last three games have not been close to the number. Purdue has won three straight games and has covered four in a row. They are playing their best football of the season and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Purdue is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games against Ohio State and it has been five years since Ohio State has traveled to Lafayette. Purdue is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Buckeyes. I think they will play one of their best games of the year and they will cover this number.

3-Unit Play. Take #354 Appalachian State (-25) over UL-Lafayette (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Appalachian State has dominated this series. They have beaten Lafayette in all four meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those games since joining the Sun Belt. Last year Appalachian State won 63-14 and in 2016 they won by a 24-0 shutout. I think it will be another blowout this year and this is the best team in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is on a 9-0 ATS run and they have been the best moneymaker in college football this year, covering the spread in all five games. Their games have not even been close! Their last four wins have come by a combined score of 204-32. This is the same team that almost won at Penn State as a 24-point underdog, losing in OT to the Nittany Lions. The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and I think that they will dominate again in front of the home crowd. Lay the points.

6-Unit Play. Take #374 Florida State (-10) over Wake Forest (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Florida State is a team that is improving. They got off to a slow start with losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse. But they have gone 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three games. And they almost pulled a big upset at rival Miami as a 14-point underdog. Florida State is coming off a bye week. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game against a Wake team that they have beaten six straight times (4-2 ATS). I think Florida State will continue to improve and will be strong after the extra week off. Wake Forest has had two weeks to prepare for this game too. But this team has been terrible this year. They are coming off a 63-3 blowout loss at home to Clemson. They were also blown out at home (56-27) by Notre Dame. Florida State should do the same thing. Wake Forest is going with freshman quarterback Sam Hartman. He has a long way to go before he can lead his team to a road win in a game like this. Wake Forest is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. I think that Florida State has too much speed and too much talent for the Demon Deacons and will win this game going away. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play. Take #406 Utah (-6.5) over USC (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Take the home team in this one. Utah has won back-to-back games over Arizona and Stanford. They are playing well and they have had this game circled. Utah lost a tight game to USC last year, falling 28-27 on the road. Utah had a 21-7 lead at halftime but couldn't hold on. They will get revenge in this one. Utah has covered the spread in three of the last four meetings and they are 7-3 ATS against USC going back to 1993. The home team has dominated this series since Utah joined the Pac-12. The home team has won five straight and six of seven in the series. The home team is 6-1 ATS in those seven games, with last year's effort by Utah as the lone time the host didn't cover. The Trojans have not been very good on the road. They lost by two touchdowns at Stanford and lost by 23 points at Texas. Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games and the Trojans are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Go with Utah here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take #389 North Carolina State (+17.5) over Clemson (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Clemson is a good football team but they should not be favored by this much in this game. North Carolina State is an underrated football team, and they will put a scare into the Tigers for much of this contest. Will Clemson win? Probably, but North Carolina State isn't a team they should take lightly. This game has a 30-21 or 24-20 type feel to it. This line should be closer to 11. 5 than 17.5. Look for the Wolfpack to play Clemson tough and be hanging around near the end of this game. The Wolfpack are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games while Clemson is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records. Take the points in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #315 Central Florida (-21.5) over East Carolina (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 20)
Central Florida is an extremely good football team. Yes, they barely escaped Memphis last weekend, but the line in that game was just 4.5-points. Vegas knew that would be a close football game, and it was just that. Now UCF is back in destroy everything in front of us, so we can make a Power 5 Bowl" mode and East Carolina is next on the list. In the end the final score could be close to this line, but you are looking a a Central Florida team that at worst wins this game by 24-27 points. This game will be ugly at halftime, and UCF will improve on their 6-2 ATS record over the last eight games.

5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48 Miami (OH) at Army (noon, Saturday, Oct. 20)

3-Unit Play. Take #330 Army (-7.5) over Miami (OH) (noon, Saturday, Oct. 20)
This Army offense is tough to prepare for. We have been Army fans all season, and it has paid dividends. Army is averaging nearly 33 points per game while Miami is giving up 24 points a game. Army is absolutely going to be able to score here. Yes, Army's defense has done a great job of slowing its opponents, but Miami (OH) has been playing great football as of late. This game has a 35-28 type feel to it as both teams will be able to move the football. Army averages over 300 yards per game on the ground, and Miami (OH) won't have an answer for them defensively, which is why we like the Black Knights to cover. This line opened at double-figures, and we feel that it should've stayed there. The line movement won't matter as Army will cover this lower line, just like they would've covered the higher one. Take Army and the 'over' as the Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games, and the 'over' is 16-6 in the last 22 Black Knights games against the MAC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

5 Unit Play Take #314 Temple -3 over Cincinnati (12:00pm est):
Cincinnati comes into this one at 6-0 on the year but this is an average team at best. They beat a bad UCLA team in week one and needed some late game scoring in that one. They also faced a Bruins team that lost it's starting quarterback in the middle of that game and had to go with a true freshman seeing his first college game action. Their next toughest game they once again came from behind to beat an average Ohio team in a game that Cincinnati trailed the entire way until very late. The Bearcats win over Tulane came at home was the week after Tulane had pulled off their big emotional upset win.
Temple got off to a slow start to this season this year losing their first two games but have since played much better especially after making a change at the quarterback position. They come into this one having won 4 of their last 5 contests including posting two quality road wins over both Navy and Maryland, two teams better than Cincinnati. Overall the Owls are the much better of these two programs right now and have not only beat the Bearcats in each of their last three head to head battles but have finished ahead of them in league play and have had a better overall record in each of those seasons as well.
Take Temple minus the points here.

4 Unit Play Take #317 North Carolina +10 over Syracuse (12:20pm est):
I felt last week's North Carolina/Virginia Tech game was one of the biggest misleading final scores we've seen this CFB season with the Hokies posting a 22-19 win. The Tar Heels looked like the better team in that game as they gained nearly 150 more yards in the contest, lost two fumbles (one at the goal line) and also missed two chip shot field goals in the game. I not only thought North Carolina should have won the game but done so by double digits. The Tar Heels had some suspended players earlier in the year but all of them are back now and overall this is a much improved team now that they are at full strength.
Take North Carolina plus the points.

4 Unit Play Take #348 Navy +11.5 over Houston (3:30pm est):
Navy was a touchdown home underdog last week to Temple and battled the Owls all game before losing by 7 points. They actually had a 17-7 lead in that game before losing it late. Navy also made a QB switch last week and they look to be a little bit better with the change. Now they are back at home in this one and face what I feel is at best the same level team here in Houston and yet they are getting 4-5 more points in this one. The Midshipmen have had a down year overall but they are always a tough team to prepare with their unique option offense. Navy also has been one of the better home teams in CFB the last few years going 6-1 against the spread in the role of a home underdog.
Houston isn't as good as their 5-1 overall record on the season. They trailed in the 2nd half to a bad Rice team early in the year and were also getting beat by 9 points in a game at Tulsa but made a big comeback in both games to get the win. The home team in this series is 3-0 overall.
Take Navy plus the points.

4 Unit Play Take #386 UAB -1.5 over North Texas (7:30pm est):
UAB is playing some fantastic football of late. This is an experienced group who will be looking for revenge in this one after a 3 point loss last year to North Texas. These two teams have played a common opponent this year as UAB went on the road and beat Louisiana Tech while North Texas lost to LA. Tech at home. North Texas started out the season playing very well but they haven't looked good of late including the fact they probably should have lost to UTEP a couple of games ago. Big game for both teams here and the home field should be a nice edge.
Take UAB in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #337 Eastern Michigan -3 over Ball State (3:00pm est):
Overall it's fairly easy to get a read on where this Eastern Michigan team is at. They've battled down to the wire in road games with Purdue, Buffalo, San Diego State and Western Michigan, all of which are quality teams and who are a couple levels higher overall than this Ball State squad they face in this one. EMU has also seen some improvements of late since letting Mike Glass III take over as their starting quarterback. No word yet on if Glass plays in this one but if so that's an added bonus as the Eagles are already better than Ball State without him.
The Cardinals needed a late game comeback last week to beat Central Michigan. It was a gutsy win for Ball State but the fact they struggled in that game tells you all you have to know about where this team is at right now. They've had two similar tests to EMU in games this year against Indiana and Northern Illinois and they were clearly the inferior team in both of those games. We also seen evidence of that last year in this matchup as they lost 56-14 to EMU.
Take Eastern Michigan in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #339 UTEP +23.5 over Louisiana Tech (3:30pm est):
Plug your nose and bet UTEP in this one. The Miners are one of the worst teams in all of college football but there's signs they are turning the corner under 1st year head coach Dana Dimel and they come into this one undervalued. They very easily could and probably should have won their last game, a 27-24 loss to a solid North Texas team in what would have been a huge upset. UTEP went toe to toe with the Mean Green in the game and if not for a -2 turnover margin they may have won the game. Now they come off a bye week and I love 1st year head coaches coming back the week off a bye as they can spend the week off teaching some of things they've learned about their new team. There will be no quit in this team either as they come into this game winless but they've been very close of late losing each of their last three contests by 9 points or less and you can see the excitement levels growing with this squad. One other big thing with UTEP is they also went to senior quarterback Ryan Metz last game and he gives them a much better chance at winning as Metz is experienced and had some decent success in past years.
Take UTEP plus the points here.

3 Unit Play #368 Washington State -3 over Oregon (7:30pm est):
This is a huge game for a Washington State team at home and coming off a bye. Add in the fact this is also a night game and it doesn't get much bigger/better for WSU. The Cougars have owned this matchup of late having covered the point spread against Oregon each of the last 8 times that they've faced them.
Oregon comes in off a grueling hard fought win last week in overtime over Washington. It was a big victory for the Ducks but I felt they were outplayed in the game. They had what appeared to be a decent resume earlier in the year but it doesn't look as impressive now that Stanford, California and San Jose State have all struggled over the past month.
Take Washington State minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #405 USC +7 over Utah (8:00pm est):
USC is a much better team right now than they were earlier this year and come into this off their best game of the season. Their true freshman quarterback is now tested having played at Stanford and Texas and he shouldn't be phased in this one. The Trojans have the better athletes and getting this many points is too much for team like Utah that struggles to score. The Utes benefitted in a big way from +4 turnovers in their win over Stanford and last game faced a Arizona team that lost it's starting quarterback early on.
Take USC plus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #409 Nevada +3 over Hawaii (12:00am est):
The wrong team is favored in this one. Nevada comes in off back to back losses against two of the top teams in the Mountain West Conference. They very easily could have beat Boise State last week and the week before that faced Fresno State without their excellent quarterback Ty Gangi who was out with an injury situation. I made this line as Nevada favored.
Take Nevada plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

W.T. F. (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week
Virginia (+7-) at Duke 12:30 PM ET
We go for our 7th straight W.T. F. victory. Each of these teams comes off upset victories last week meaning the letdown factor could be in place. Each of these teams is also playing outstanding ball for the season with improvement in their power ratings by a touchdown. There are indicators, however, which point to the fact that Virginia may well be the better team. A closer look at last weeks stats show concern for this Duke team. They were tied with Georgia Tech at 7 in the 3rdquarter before they translated 3 consecutive Georgia Tech fumbles into 3 TD passes in less than 2 minutes! We gladly accept fortunate Top Play winners like that. A closer look at the stats, however, tells us Duke was outrushed in that game 229-98. The week before Duke could only manage 68 RY vs. VA Tech. And there is no guarantee they can rely on QB Jones who has returned from injury. Against Broncos Mendenhall’s Cav defense, in two previous seasons, he has completed half his passes with 7 picks with the Cavaliers winning those games 28-21 and 34-20. Now in his third season, the defensive concepts of Mendenhall are beginning to click for a Cav team who allows just 19 PPG. As well, the offense finally has a leader in QB Perkins. Noting all the above along with the fact that Virginia is a “150 Running Dog”, I must truly question is the Wrong Team Favored.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson (CFB)

Army -8
App State -25.5
Utah State -15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee (CFB)

LSU Under 44.5
Oklahoma -8
Oregon +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt (CFB)

South Florida -32.5
Army -7.5
Northwestern -20.5
Alabama -28.5