Service Plays Saturday 11/3/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* SEC - TOY

Mississippi / South Carolina over

3* ACC GOY Houston -14


3* GOW Tampa Bay -125 (NHL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ken Thomson

3* LSU +14.5

3* Fresno st -26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT
SATURDAY, November 3, 2018


College Football -- Noon ET
[395] Oklahoma State at [396] Baylor
PLAY: [396] BAYLOR +6 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%

Huge look-ahead/letdown/flat spot for the visiting Cowboys. Okie State is off an upset win over Texas and they have the huge Bedlam showdown with arch-rival Oklahoma on deck. Baylor is off a blowout loss to West Virginia, and the Bears are 2-0 SU off a double-digit loss this season. Baylor is also 6-2 ATS in its last 8 as a home dog.

======

College Football -- 3:45 PM ET
[345] Boston College at [346] Virginia Tech
PLAY: [345] Boston College -2 (-106)
BET SIZE: 4%

Long gone are the days of Frank Beamer and a Hokies team that dominated with defense and special teams. These Hokies are rebuilding, and the defense is young and depleted. BC has lost three straight to VT, but this is the Eagles' time to break through. BC has a veteran offensive line and a very talented RB (AJ Dillon) that can control the line of scrimmage. Control the line of scrimmage (and the clock), control the game.


=====

College Football -- 4 PM ET
[391] Charlotte at [392] Tennessee
PLAY: UNDER 47.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%

My football totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Projected Points Scored = 41

4% play at 45.5 or higher
3% play at 44 to 45
No play below 44

=====

#405 Penn St at #406 Michigan 3:45 PM ET
The Play: 1% on #406 Michigan -12 (+104)

This is one of those games where the average bettor sees two big-name programs, a double-digit spread, and can't grab the points with the big-name dog fast enough. After all, Penn State was in the playoff picture last season and again earlier this season.

Michigan has had this game circled since the schedule was announced, given that they were embarrassed in primetime 42-13 last season in Happy Valley. The season prior, it was Michigan rolling here at home, 49-10. Now the scene shifts back to the Big House in Ann Arbor, and Big Blue is the better team with tons of motivation.

Michigan's defense is #1 in the nation, holding teams to a whopping 218 yards below their season average. That is just crazy. Crazy good, that is.

The Wolverines' lone loss was the season opener in South Bend against an Irish bunch that are in the thick of the playoff picture. Michigan is also coming off a bye week, so they've had extra rest and prep time for this matchup.

Penn State's wins this season have come against weaker foes. When they played solid competition, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State, and probably should've lost to Iowa at home last weekend.

Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 as home chalk, while Penn State is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 as road dogs against Top 10 teams.

If it looks like too many points to lay, it's probably not nearly enough. Such is the case here. Lay it with MICHIGAN.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

SATURDAY - November 3rd

4 Units - #338 Florida (-6) over Missouri *4 EST
Drew Lock and the Tigers had ZERO first downs in the second half at home in a wild loss to Kentucky last week. Drew Lock for all his accolades is 0-9 against Top 25 teams at Mizzou, that will not serve him well in the draft this upcoming year. Add in the fact we are getting a line under a TD against a bad road team because Florida got their doors blown off by Georgia last week. Mizzou 0-3 ATS on the road this year and the Gators have not forgotten the butt kick Mizzou gave them last year 45-16 as a 1.5 point favorite and at home should rebound nicely with a 10-14 point win here.

7 Units - #347 Michigan State (-2.5) over Maryland *12 Noon EST
Maryland coach DJ Durkin who was suspended returned this week in a big surprise to all, and many players were upset and walked out of a meeting this week. Then on Wednesday they fired him, causing a national debate, just a ton off the field going on at Maryland. Lots of distraction. MSU is still a good team despite recent setbacks, just not an elite team and I cannot count on Maryland to have full focus here despite kicking the snot out of Illinois last week. Purdue who has stepped it up lost to the hands of Sparty last week by 10, as Sparty got their feet back under them. Maryland runs the ball and really cannot throw it and MSU is one of the best in the nation at stopping the run allowing 77 ypg. A 7-10 point road win here in my opinion and a weak line.

3 Units - #393 -LA Tech (+23.5) vs Miss St *7:30 EST
All about scheduling spots. We had LA tech earlier this year against LSU and not only covered but outgained them. LA tech was also a free play last week as a dog and won outright on Friday, so an added day to prep. Miss St has Alabama on deck, and just played LASU and Texas AM. Sandwich game no doubt and LA Tech is no joke as a lesser team and are 21-7 ATS as dogs their last 28 games. LA Tech is also 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games.

3 Units - #335 Georgia Tech (-6) over North Carolina *12:15 EST
The Tarheels just a dumpster fire and the rambling wreck triple option will pose numerous issues for NC. Last year GT beat them 33-7 and laid 9 points. What has changed? GT just lit up Virginia Techs defense for 49 at Blacksburg, what can they put up against NC who already lost to VT this year? I am unclear of the final score but GT should put up 35.

4 Units - #421 Fresno St (-25.5) over UNLV *10:30 EST
Bear in mind UNLV upset Fresno last year in Fresno and this is payback. UNLV needs no introduction, they are a complete dumpster fire now that Rogers is out at QB, 0-4 SU and just got beat at home by one of the worst teams in CFB in San Jose St last week. Fresno will have no mercy here and clearly are 4+ TDs better here and with revenge on their mind and some payback, we will find a dialed in Fresno steam here, and this is DOUBLE REVENGE spot as UNLV has beat them 2 years in a row and 3 out of the last 4. Fresno has won their last 3 games against better teams by 24,31, and 30. Total blowout. 45-7 type game. Fresno 17-3-2 ATS run under Jeff Tedford, a solid head coach. Bet early - line will climb.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROCHESTER-TITANS

Air Force +6.5

[BONTRAGER]

Roz Juarbe Big 10 Game Of The Year + 2 bonus plays

Game Of The Year is IOWA


2 bonus plays are UMASS & WYOMING

[dawggy]

From Arthur Ralph Sports.

SUPER PK Over the total 76 1/2 Tex TECH /Oklahoma MONSTERS (2 Early Games)Michigan ST -2, Iowa STATE -14, Florida -6, UNDER the total IOWA /Purdue 51 1/2 FREE play SAT : Boston College -2

[pirrana]

any FAT JACK tia

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
7 so car
7 texas
7 florida

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AdomasTips

Denver Nuggets | Utah Jazz

Over 211

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

18-0 ATS College Football Perfect System Club Perfect Play!

LSU

CFB - Game 323 - Iowa (+2.5) - CFB False Favorite GOY
Edges - Hawkeyes: 8-1 SUATS away against foes coming off a loss; and 9-3 ATS in this series when coming off a loss, including 3-0 SUATS with revenge; and favored last 8 straight games in this series … Boilermakers: 1-6-1 SUATS home with win percentage of .300 or more when allowing more than 22 PPG on the season if facing a foe with a better record … We cement the call with this from our powerful database: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is 41-23-3 ATS in his career win conference games when coming off a loss, including 17-6-3 ATS when his team is allowing less than 18.5 PPG on the season. He is 8-0-1 ATS as a dog in these same games with a winning record. Ferentz is also 11-1 ATS with personal revenge in games in which his team is off a loss and allowing 21.5 or fewer points per game. With the Hawkeyes off a 6-point loss at Penn State last week and playing with revenge from a 24-15 loss as 6.5-point favorites last year,


CFB - Game 361 - Air Force (+6.5)
Edges - Falcons: the underdog is 5-1 ATS in its games this season … Cadets: 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS as a host in this series; and favored only two times in this series since 1981 (lost both games SU) … We cement the call this this from our well-oiled database: Mission road dogs (teams who has a losing record last year but a winning record each of the previous three seasons) with revenge who win 4 or more games last season are 12-0 ATS when facing greater than .700 non-conference foes. With Army already blow eligible and Air Force still in need of two wins to become bold eligible, and the Falcons looking to avenge a 21-0 loss in this series last year - only the 2nd time since 1975 that they suffered a shut loss loss against a fellow military foe - we recommend a strong 3* play on Air Force. Thank you and good luck as always.
CFB - Game 376 - Southern Miss (+2.5)
Edges - Golden Eagles: 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS with at least one win on the season in conference games when coming off a SU favorite loss; and 3-0 ATS last three games as a home dog … Thundering Herd: 0-5 ATS as road favorites when coming off a SU underdog win … We seal the deal with these two jaw-dropping awesome angles from our all-knowing database: 1) College football conference home dogs off a SU road favorite road loss (Southern Miss) are 13-0 ATS when facing a foe with at least one loss coming off a win if the home dog lost as a favorite of more than 1-point in its loss; and 2) .500 or greater conference road favorites of 6 or less points coming off a SU underdog win (Marshall) are 0-14 ATS if they allow 22.5 or more PPG and are facing a .600 or less opponent.

CFB - Game 420 - LSU (+14.5)
Edges - Tigers: 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs with an .800 or greater win percentage; and 5-0 ATS with conference revenge; and LSU's FBS opponents combined record is 42-17 this season … Crimson Tide: 8 wins this season against foes with combined 29-36 record; and each of Alabama's opponent's Yard Per Point average this season currently ranks #90 or worse in the nation … We cement the call with this from our Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any defending college national champion as a road favorite off back-to-back wins, the last an ATS win of more than 3 points, versus and opponent that allows 19.1 or less points per game. That's because these teams are 0-18 ATS in this role since 1980. With the Tigers 57-7 SU in their last 64 home games, with only ONE LOSS by more than 10 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

4% Mich State -1.5
3* Over 74.5 Syracuse
3% California +10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sleepyj

3* Utah st -19.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al demarco

15 dime

Utah St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hackman

NW 10
Boise -13
SD ST -10.5