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6 Units - #455 Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore *1 EST This looks like a trap line, but at days end Pitt with revenge, and RB Conner having 3-100 yard games in a row opens up play action for Big Ben. That is what made them great with Bell running around, and now Conners is doing the same thing. Not sold in any way on Ravens laying it here, even at home. Ravens losers of 3 out of their last 4 and Pitt starting their mid-season surge? Yeah gimmie the points, Pitt has more playmakers despite the hype over Ravens defense.
4 Units - #465 Houston (+1) vs Denver *4 EST With Thomas going to Houston in a trade this week, prefer Houston's defense knowing exactly what Denver is going to do with his intel, which is basically not much against a stout Houston defense and frankly the Broncos are a mess on and off the field, and off a brutal game against rival KC on the road. Houston 5-0 Sy their last 5 and QB Watson playing much better than he did to start the season.
4 Units - #471 Green Bay / #472 New England (OVER 56.5) 8:20 EST Do you really see this in any way being a defensive battle? Two of the Top QBs in the NFL, both Hall of Famers going at it, and especially with Tom Brady against this defense of the Packers, he will have a field day. Aaron Rodgers will do his thing, stretch the field all night and make plays. Really needs no explanation on this one, a shootout on Sunday Night. I see the Pats in the mid to high 30's and some late scoring as well, Green Bay should put up at least 28. New England sputtered last week on offense and I am sure they are determined to fix that as they really did not bring their A game against hapless Buffalo on Monday, they were looking ahead, that was clear.
SUNDAY - 4 Unit 2 Team / 6 Point Teaser *1 EST Tease #453 Kansas City DOWN to (-2.5) and tease LA Rams UP to (+7.5)
8-Unit Play: Take 461 Falcons +1.5 over Redskins (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 4)
I'm backing the Atlanta Falcons plus the points on Sunday. The Skins are the flavor of the month in the NFC East but we feel they're in for a loss this week. The Skins rank 26th in passing yards allowed and 25th in total yards allowed per game. They're facing their first elite passing game since a 43-19 loss to New Orleans. Since then, they have run off 3 straight wins against the lackluster passing attacks of the Panthers, Cowboys, and Giants. And we note that over the last 4 games, the Skins have allowed 8 TD passes, a 70% completion rate, and 1,134 yards on 7.5 yards per pass...and again, 3 of those 4 came against mediocre-at-best passing attacks. Matt Ryan has been terrific this season connecting on 71% of his passes and 9 yards per attempt. The ATL signal caller has 15 TD passes and just 2 INTs on the season, including a 13-0 ratio over the last 5 games. We note the Falcons are a grand total of just 13 points from a 6-1 record, losing by 6 to Philly in week-1, in OT to New Orleans, and by 1 to Cincy. And finally, NFL road teams are on 20-3 ATS and 32-7 ATS runs if they average at least 265 passing yards per game and are facing a defense that allows 230-265 passing yards per game while allowing at least 7 yards per pass in at least 2 straight games. The Skins' pass defense can be had and we're betting will be had this week. I'm taking the points with the Falcons on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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