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ESPN+ NFL Best Bets It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Total: 37
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Jacksonville
Sharp: The Jaguars lost their season when predictable fourth-quarter playcalling cost them their 16-0 lead over the Steelers last week. After playing just one top-10 defense so far this year, Jacksonville must take on Buffalo's No. 2 defense, which is hungry for revenge after the playoff loss last year in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have played just one top-10 defense this year (Houston) and managed just seven points. It will be hard to fathom the Jaguars, sitting at 3-7 and losers of six straight, bringing their A-game to upstate New York after Thanksgiving.
The Bills have played an absolutely brutal schedule of opponents at home, losing badly to the Patriots, Chargers and Bears. They defeated the Titans in their only other home game. With two weeks for Sean McDermott to prep for the Jaguars offense, expect a suffocating performance.
Pick: Bills +3
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San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Total: 54
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Tampa Bay
Johnson: It appears that Nick Mullens will be playing quarterback again for San Francisco coming out of its bye in Week 11. The Buccaneers are also going back to Jameis Winston to lead their team after Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled against the Giants. The line is spot on at -3, but the total at 54 is a little high. My projection is 51.9, assuming Mullens and Winston are the quarterbacks. This isn't enough of a disagreement to warrant a bet, but if you were leaning to the under already my numbers do point that direction.
Lean: Under 54
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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Philadelphia
Johnson: My number for this game is Philadelphia -7.5. The Eagles have a trio of division games beginning with the Giants in Week 12 and a ending with a showdown in Dallas that likely will decide the division, assuming they can win the first two. There are -5.5s around as well that are obviously a better bet, but I still think it is worth a slightly smaller wager at -6 as well. Remember when the Giants were getting just 3.5-points off of their bye week against a San Francisco team starting Nick Mullens?
Without a bye week heading into this matchup, the market currently appears to value the Eagles about one point better than a Nick Mullens-led 49ers squad. I expect the number to come up.
Pick: Eagles -6
Sharp: The Eagles offense isn't as bad as it looked last week in New Orleans. As we saw on Thanksgiving, the Saints defense is looking much better than it was to start the season. But against the Giants defense, which surrendered 35 to the combination of Fitzpatrick and Winston, I expect the Eagles offense to look substantially better. Meanwhile, the Giants offense has turned things around and is playing at a much higher level the past two games out of the bye. It should have success against the Eagles secondary that lost more backups-turned-starters in their last game. The secondary is incredibly thin unit at the moment.
Pick: Over 46.5
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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Cincinnati
Sharp: It's no surprise that out of their past five games, the Bronws lost by double digits to top-10 teams (Chargers, Steelers and Chiefs) but were in close battles with bottom-half teams (Falcons and Buccaneers). I expect the Bengals defense to struggle stopping the rushing attack of the Browns, after giving up 260 rushing yards at 4.8 yards per carry to the Ravens last week and 244 rushing yards at 5.2 yards per carry to the Saints two weeks ago. With a productive run game, Baker Mayfield should do enough to keep this game competitive.
Lean: Browns +3
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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Seattle
Sharp: Carolina's run defense has faced one of the easier schedules of run defenses and hasn't been tested in weeks, apart from a 52-21 loss to the Steelers and their No. 11 run offense. Seattle brings the No. 6-ranked run offense to town, which happens to be the NFL's most explosive over the past four weeks. That spells trouble, as the Panthers rank 29th the past four weeks in explosive run defense.
The Panthers top-five run offense gets to take on the Seahawks run defense as well, which gave up 145-plus rushing yards at 6.5 yards per carry or worse in two of their past three games. Additionally, the Panthers faced four top-10 pass rushes in their past four games. Playing at home, Cam Newton should have more time to throw against Seattle's pass rush.
Lean: Panthers -3
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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Total: 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Miami
Johnson: The Colts and Andrew Luck are absolutely rolling. I questioned the strength of the defenses they had faced in recent weeks and bet the under this past Sunday when they faced the Titans. It fortunately won despite the Colts dropping 38 points, but Indianapolis looked legitimate. I'm not confident that Ryan Tannehill's return means big things for this Dolphins team at this point. The word out of practice on Wednesday is that he is still experiencing soreness in his shoulder, but that he wants to give it a go on Sunday. The number at Colts -7.5 is too high, but I'm not particularly interested in backing an unhealthy Tannehill or ultimately stepping in front of this Colts surge. I'm staying away.
Lean: Dolphins +7.5
Sharp: What type of performance will Tannehill be able to deliver? The receiving corps for the Dolphins is severely depleted, and passing the ball is exactly what a team would want to do against a Colts defense that allows the NFL's highest success rate to opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins are off a bye, but their most recent game saw them surrender just 199 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers (and that game cost them WR Jakeem Grant for the season). I expect the Dolphins offense to control the ball enough using Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake to keep this game closer than expected, but I'm not sure they can hold on all 60 minutes.
Lean: Dolphins +7.5
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Pittsburgh
Sharp: The Steelers have the No. 1 pass rush, so it will be incumbent on the Broncos to get solid production from their rushing attack, which ranks No. 3 so far this year and is also the eighth-most explosive. Pittsburgh has played just two good run offenses all year: the Chiefs in Week 2 and the Panthers in Week 10. The Steelers got up so big against Carolina that they took the Panthers out of the run, but Pittsburgh hasn't won a road game all year by more than one score. Expect the Broncos to be able to run throughout this game and have success when doing so.
3-Unit Play. #264. Take Carolina Panthers -3.5 over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Panthers have not lost 3 straight all year long and the Seahawks are primed for a let down after the loss to the Packers. We like Carolina to get back on track here in a big way and save their season - they have revenge from the 2016 loss to the Seahawks as well. Panthers get back on track - at least for this week.
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